Comments on: Trade Deadline Prospects Ranked, Part 3

By: Matthew

Matthew — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 06:58:34 +0000

steve johnson is 21 years old striking out 15 in 10 innings in AA. This guy is in the top 5 FOR SURE

By: Teej

Teej — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 21:36:02 +0000

Marc, I’m mostly going off what I read at USSM and LL. I think Dave said he had worse stuff than Rowland-Smith and was more in the Vargas/Olson vein. So maybe not replacement level, but I have a hard time believing he’ll be a league-average starting pitcher. Maybe I’m underrating him, I don’t know.

As for this year’s numbers, I imagine he’s going to look worse when a few of those fly balls start leaving the yard.

But overall I’m still thrilled that the M’s were able to trade Washburn for Cheap Washburn + something else. Didn’t mean to imply that French was worthless. Just that his ceiling is probably something like a No. 4 guy. I hope I’m wrong.

By: marc w.

marc w. — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 21:04:53 +0000

Whoa, replacement level? He’s better than league average right now by FIP or tRA. If you think that’s small sample size nonsense, why?

I’m with you on the larger point here; I’m someone who thinks that a few of the ‘single A pitchers’ are too low on this list. But I also don’t think French is chopped liver.

By: Teej

Teej — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:41:40 +0000

French has made it to the majors, which is to be commended, but his mediocre skills put him close to replacement level, and he doesn’t figure to get much better. So he’s not much of a commodity, whereas while Robles could flame out and never reach the bigs, at least has that higher ceiling.

In other words, French is good enough to pitch in the majors, but just barely, and there are a lot of guys in AAA who could take his place. Robles could be better than that. He’s probably harder to replace. I guess that’s the way I’m seeing it.

By: Fresh Hops

Fresh Hops — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:27:00 +0000

I’m starting to question how we’re valuing prospects here. Luke French is not a special ball player, no doubt. But isn’t a guy who’s shown that he can throw in the majors, has made it through all levels in the minors, without injury, simply a better commodity that a single-A pitcher with half a season under his belt?

French figures to be between replacement level and major league average for the next five seasons.

Can we reasonably say, of any single-A pitcher drafted later than the 3rd round, that he figures to be that good? Don’t most single-A pitchers, even ones drafted in the third round, usually not make it to the majors at all?

Maybe I’m just wrong about the typical success of single-A pitchers who have a good half first season, but I’m a little skeptical of these valuations.

By: pm

pm — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 20:15:06 +0000

I never said he didn’t. But, actually he is quite solid. He had a 1.69 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in the season if you take out his injury plagued May. My problem is that it looks like Fangraphs will forget to list the prospects that the Nats got in return for Beimel.

By: Teej

Teej — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 19:44:58 +0000

He isn’t. French is at No. 30.

By: Joseph Honeysuckle

Joseph Honeysuckle — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 19:42:58 +0000

PS PM, Joe Beimel sucks

By: Joseph Honeysuckle

Joseph Honeysuckle — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 19:37:59 +0000

If Mauricio Robles was “the key to the Washburn trade, then why is he ranked lower than Luke French?

By: pm

pm — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 19:31:37 +0000

I’m pretty sure you missed the 2 prospects that the Nationals traded for Joe Beimel. I’m not surprised that you guys forgot. You have a bias against teams on the east coast.