Trade Deadline Prospects Ranked, Part 5
At the expiration of the Major League Baseball trading deadline, 35 prospects had changed hands (beginning July 19 with Milwaukee’s acquisition of Felipe Lopez). Over the next week, FanGraphs will take a look at each prospect, while also ranking them individually in value from 35 down to one. Players such as Justin Masterson, Clayton Richard, Kevin Hart, and Jeff Clement were not considered in this list because they have expired their rookie eligibility. However, they can still technically be considered “prospects” because they are young and have yet to establish themselves at the MLB level.
The week-long series wraps up today with the top seven prospects who moved at the trade deadline. We’ve already taken a look at 28 prospects:
35-29 on Monday
28-22 on Tuesday
21-15 on Wednesday
14-8 on Thursday
So let’s get to it and see who the biggest prospect names were.
From Philadelphia to Cleveland
Value-wise, Carrasco peaked as a prospect mid-way through the 2007 season. The right-hander stopped trusting his stuff when he struggled after being promoted to double-A. His formerly plus curveball has regressed to the point where it is an average pitch for him. Carrasco now relies mostly on a low-90s fastball that can touch 95-96 mph and a changeup. Prior to the trade, the Venezuelan native allowed 118 hits in 114.2 innings of work. He had a solid walk rate of 2.98 BB/9 and a good strikeout rate at 8.79 K/9. Carrasco has won both his starts since he was traded to Cleveland, but he’s been far from dominant by allowing nine runs on 13 hits and three walks in 13 innings. With a little more aggression, and if he can regain his plus breaking ball, Carrasco could realize his potential as a No. 2 starter.
From San Francisco to Pittsburgh
Alderson and Madison Bumgarner have been linked together since both pitchers were nabbed out of high school by the Giants in the first round of the 2007 draft. That changed when Alderson was flipped to Pittsburgh for veteran second baseman Freddy Sanchez. The right-hander has amazing control for his age and experience level, having risen to double-A at the age of 20. The 6’6” 215 lbs hurler has an unusual delivery. A lot has been made about his reduction in velocity, but Alderson takes some zip off his fastball to create more movement and to induce a higher number of ground balls. He’s given up his fair share of hits this season with 114 allowed in 104.1 innings, but he’s always around the strike zone and doesn’t walk anyone (1.73 BB/9). Along with his fastball that sits in the upper-80s and can touch 92 mph, the hurler also has a plus curveball and a changeup. Alderson could be in the Pirates rotation within a year.
From Philadelphia to Cleveland
The Phillies organization knew Knapp was promising (The club drafted him in the second round out of a New Jersey high school in 2008) but he showed solid results sooner than expected. The Indians were so happy to have the chance to acquire him that the organization took him in the trade even though he was on the disabled list with shoulder fatigue. If Knapp cannot hold up to the rigors of pitching as a starter, he could become a dominating closer with a fastball that creeps up near 100 mph. He also has a power slider and a good changeup. This season in low-A, Knapp allowed 63 hits in 85.1 innings of work, while also posting a walk rate of 4.11 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.71 K/9.
From Boston to Cleveland
Like Knapp, Hagadone’s potential is just too good to ignore even though there are health questions after he underwent Tommy John surgery and missed almost all of the 2008 season. The hard-throwing southpaw has shown good stuff in low-A ball this season with an impressive ground-ball rate of 57.6%. Hagadone has allowed just 16 hits in 28 innings of work this year, while also posting a walk rate of 5.04 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 11.52 K/9. The former supplemental first round draft pick’s control was not a strength prior to the surgery, so it could take a little while before it improves enough to pitch successfully in the upper minors and Majors. Hagadone, 23, has the potential to be a No. 2 starter but the injury has definitely slowed down his ascent through the minors.
From Los Angeles NL to Baltimore
Prior to the 2009 season, Bell’s pro career could have been categorized as “promising” but he had yet to put everything together. The former fourth round pick out of a Florida high school has improved by leaps and bounds this season despite making the big jump from high-A to double-A. He also missed more than half of the year in 2008 due to injuries. On the ’09 season, Bell is currently hitting .296/.386/.494 with 11 homers in 334 at-bats. The 22-year-old has also banged out 30 doubles. Bell’s approach at the plate has certainly improved. After averaging a walk rate of about 8.6 BB% in his first two seasons, that number has improved to about 13.6 BB% in the past two years. His strikeout rate is also down almost 9% over 2008 (29.9 to 21.0 K%). If the Orioles club can find a one-year stopgap for the hot corner in 2010, Bell should be ready to play full-time at the MLB level in 2011.
From Chicago AL to San Diego
Poreda is the most advanced power pitcher on this list, although his secondary pitches do not show as much potential as Hagadone’s. The 6’6” 240 lbs left-hander can touch 100 mph on his fastball and he’s done a better job of keeping the ball down in the zone to induce ground-ball outs. The trade certainly helps Poreda’s value, as he moves from one of the best hitter’s parks in the Majors to the best pitcher’s park. For now, though, he’ll spend time in triple-A. Poreda began the season in double-A where he allowed 47 hits in 64.1 innings of work. He posted a walk rate of 4.90 BB/9 and a strikeout rate of 9.65 K/9. The southpaw also worked 11 innings for Chicago and allowed nine hits and eight walks to go along with 12 strikeouts.
From St. Louis to Oakland
The 13th overall selection in the 2008 draft, Wallace checks in as the No. 1 prospect traded at the deadline in 2009. The first baseman (let’s be honest, he’s not a third baseman) has a career line of .302/.376/.453 in 821 pro at-bats. The left-handed hitter projects to hit for both power and average, although his in-game power has not fully developed yet (.176 ISO in ’09). Prior to the trade, he was hitting .293/.346/.423 with six homers and 11 doubles in 222 at-bats. Wallace’s walk rate at triple-A (6.1 BB%) is almost half of what it was in double-A. He opened up the season with 32 games in double-A. Wallace, 22, has been promoted aggressively through the minor leagues, so that may be tempering his numbers a bit (He appeared in just 41 games below double-A). In his prime, he should hit .300 with 20-25 homers. Defensively, Wallace has good hands and handles everything he gets to at third base. His range is poor, though, and his actions are not the smoothest. He should be an average to slightly-above-average first baseman.
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Dude, I don’t think you’ve heard. Zach Stewart is a can’t miss TOR arm that will win a couple of CY awards. Obviously the best prospect moved this season. Hands. Down.
Here’s a scouting report on your CY awards…
The industry remains split on whether Stewart is a starter or a power sinker/slider reliever, but I still don’t see a good reason to remove him from the future rotation, as he’s a four-pitch guy who can miss bats and get groundballs. Stewart will pitch in the low 90 mph range but touches 96, and his fastball has both sink and tail to it. His slider is his best offspeed pitch, tight at 83-87 with good tilt, and he commands the pitch well, throwing it to both sides of the plate. His changeup improved substantially as the year went on, 81-85, straight, but with excellent arm speed. His curve has good depth but he doesn’t command it well and it’s not as tight as the slider.
He stays over the rubber before driving forward with a long stride, although his arm action is a little long in the back and he pronates relatively late in the delivery. His fastball movement has limited his control, and he’ll have to work on cutting down on free passes, but there’s No. 2 starter potential here, No. 3 at worst, as long as he can throw enough strikes
Aaron Poreda averged under 93 mph during his MLB cup this year…out of the pen Touch 100?! What scouting reports/guns are you reading? I’d bet Poreda never touches 98 on a major league gun for the rest of his career. Love the grounders…but he really has no 2nd pitch and it leads me to think he still won’t be a starter in the major leagues..
“The 6’6” 240 lbs left-hander can touch 100 mph ”
Yep. Lol When???? I watched every inning he pitched this season. He didn’t come close to it and he hasn’t come close to it in the minors.
re: Poreda
Wow, the 2nd rated prospect traded? I keep hearing about the 95+ fastball, but he didn’t show it in spring training or in his brief time in the majors. I believe his avg fastball was 92mph pitching out of the White Sox pen. What happened to the heat? He never came close to touching the mid to high 90′s.
josh bell is a 3rd basemen with more power then a DH in Brett wallace. I dont understand how the hell brett wallace is ahead of josh bell. Wallace is the most overrated prospect i have ever seen. This guy has no power at all.. He will be the next James Loney.
About Brett Wallace: “…his in-game power has not fully developed yet.” What in heaven’s name is “in-game power?” Is that scout-speak? Is that as opposed to “batting practice power?”
Yes. Some guys hit the ball a mile in BP, but don’t show it in games. I believe Ruben Rivera (of the purloined Jeter glove) was famous for this. I think I heard someone call him a 5PM All-Star.
Are you trying to be sarcastic? Because that’s exactly what it is. Some guys have huge raw power but haven’t put it together in the game yet because they’re still concerned about learning their approach or whatever.
BRETT WALLACE IS MAD OVERRATED YO
He has average-at-best power for his position (corner infield, most likely 1b), with 18 hrs in 586 ABs so far in the minors, with an ISO around .160. A 15-20 HR a year 1Bman? blah. I’m not sure how Wallace can be expected to “develop” much more power, he’s already 245 pounds, where is he gonna fit the extra muscle? Sure, he COULD end up hitting 20-25 HRs one day, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
But maybe he has good plate discipline. Oh wait, he is mediocre in that regard also. 8% career BB percentage in the minors so far.
But maybe he is a good fielder. Oh wait, he’s fat, so prob not.
re: Wallace
Doesn’t Wallace’s value plummet if he can’t be a passable 3rd baseman? A high-average, moderate-patience, moderate-power (assuming his current power outage is just a symptom of aggressive promotion and not a sign of true talent) first baseman/DH isn’t exactly the most rare of commodities. I would think Bell or one of the top 2 lefties would be ahead of Wallace.
Note–Wallace’s ability to play 3rd even passably is in doubt…if the Cardinals thought he could play there I’m not sure they would have traded him.
I guess it depends on what you mean by moderate-power, but it sounds like you just described Kevin Youkilis or Derrek Lee (over the past 3 seasons). Hell Nick Johnson’s 2006 (23 HR) season was worth 5.3 wins.
Ah, but Wallace has yet to show the patience of any of those hitters. Youkilis is also an ace first baseman who can fake third if necessary, a skill set I doubt Wallace has. I think a realistic projection of Wallace’s offense is a .315/.360/.460, and pardon me for not getting too worked up over that for a 1st baseman…now if you can get that at third with passable defense…
I think that that Brett Wallace tops out around Nick Johnson-type production, though he hasn’t shown Johnson’s patience in the minors yet.
If that holds true, and the Cardinals resign Holliday, then the trade isn’t as bad as initially thought
Nick Johnson – injures = a really good player. Most of his seasons, extrapolating his numbers over a whole season, are 3-5 WAR seasons.
If Brett Wallace is a healthy Nick Johnson at 1B, even with a smidge less patience, that’s awesome for the A’s.
Although a lot of evaluating the Holliday trade will be whether the Cards make the playoffs, of course.
Holliday is a Borras client, the chances he signs an extension is very low.
I assume Ty Wigginton (signed through next season) is that stopgap the Orioles need.
Ty Wiggington, the man who will get to any ball hit in his direction – and make the most inadvisable throws to botch up the play. I kid, his range factor is pretty low, but he’s passable at 3B, and I imagine the O’s will let MelMo walk, offer Huff a 1 year deal and hope that Snyder or Aubrey can hit big league pitching. Either that or move Scott to 1B, which is a pretty scary thought.
On Poreda… I believe (according to something I read) when pitching out of the White Sox bullpen he was pitching exclusively out of the stretch. This could definitely be a reason for a drop in velocity. Maybe not 6-8 MPH’s but I know he was also probably very focussed on his control so maybe he wasn’t running it up there at his max to help save some walks. That’s just speculation though.
The Padres as an organization have always been very good at teaching young pitchers to develop and use the change up so my guess is that they have him focus on making that a + pitch. Being aroung guys like Bud Black, Darren Balsley and Chris Young should him out a lot. Then again maybe I’m too optomistic.
I saw Wallace play 1B vs. Portland earlier this week. He looked very good — no questions about his defensive skills there.
hasn’t he played mostly 3B for AAA sacramento?
Yes, he has. Just a couple games he played 1B/DH and Adrian Cardenas played a bit of 3B.
How has Poreda become so over-rated? 100 MPH fastball? I literally laughed out loud when I read that. He has never thrown that fast and on a good day he’s throwing 94mph with movement on his fastball.
His secondary pitches are bad. He had no chance and a flat slider. You think Don Cooper and the Sox haven’t been working with him? They have, he just hasn’t been showing much progress.
That said, he’s a fine prospect, but he is FAR from a MLB rotation, and if he doesn’t have some sort of breakthough on his secondary pitches soon he’ll find himself in the bullpen.
Where is Robinson Fabian and Ryan Mattheus? They were prospects who were traded at the deadline? Fangraphs credibility is slipping by the day.
I’m not sure this is even worth replying to, considering you’re supposing that FanGraphs’ credibility is “slipping” because Marc forgot to include two non-prospects in this series. But either way, he already addressed this point in the last thread. You can go back and read it for yourself.
Who cares about this site’s credibility? It’s just a big message board to discuss advanced stats and opinons ad naseum. What are you using this info for anyways? There really is no use for most of this stuff other than a discussion topic. Personally I find it somewhat useful in my fatnasy pool but it’s not like any fantasy leagues use sabremetric categories….nor should they.
If only we’d gone over this yesterday.
Wrong Josh Bell in the link.
I too laughed out loud when I read that bit about Poreda touching 100 MPH. I also agree with pm’s comment that Fangraphs credibility is slipping, although it still remains a great site. Mr. Hulet, you need to either cite a legitimate source that Poreda can throw 100 MPH or correct yourself. You can probably call Poreda himself and he’ll likely tell you he can’t throw even close to 100. Statements like this are just plain dumb, as is ranking him #2 on this list, as a Sox fan who lives in Birmingham I’ve watched him pitch plenty over the last 2 years and I was ecstatic when he was moved, this guys ceiling is the next Matt Thornton
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=705
As above there was a baseball america article from 1/08 that reported top velocity achieved and said Poreda reached 100. That being said I am a sox season tic holder and he most definitely isn’t reaching that now. I would say the highest recording I’ve seen in the big leagues is 94 and of course fangraphs has him at 92.5 average. Citing (or actually not citing, but even worse mentioning) a report from almost 2 full baseball seasons ago about fastball velocity is misleading at best and shoddy analysis. Heck Bobby Jenks used to throw 102 but that is completely irrelevant to his present day value.
Touches 100 mph means that he has it in the tank but doesn’t use it often. Poreda takes stuff off of his fastball, as do a lot of pitchers, to create more movement and command and control. As such, if he needs to, he can throw it harder. I agree, he did not do it in his MLB stint, at least not that I am aware of… Velo is one of the most overrated thing…
wFB: 0.6
As an O’s fan, I’m psyched about Bell. But let me point out that his AA numbers came in a great pitchers’ park. He didn’t put up big scary numbers on the road. And he can’t hit lefties at all, yet.
oops s/b “…great *hitters’* park….”
“Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2009″, page 99. CWS #3 prospect Aaron Poreda. I quote…”Poreda’s calling card is his fastball, which generally parks in the mid-90s and has touched 100 mph.” Now, he may or may not throw 100 mph, but I think that’s a legitimate source…either way, does it really matter? Prospects are tough to judge and I believe Fangraphs has done a very respectable job of presenting their opinions. Just because you disagree doesn’t make them any less credible.
As above that was derived from a much earlier report. And he defintely doesn’t touch that anymore. The data is on fangraphs. He threw 176 big league fastballs and averaged 92.5. I personally watched at least 6 of his 11 innings and he touched 95 a couple of times but was mostly 92-93. Now don’t get me wrong, he’s a good prospect, he just isn’t a 100 MPH pitcher.
F%@#
It’s OK Mo.
Just get TLR to stop starting Ankiel in CF, maybe pick up a reliever on the waiver wire, and your team should be NL Central frontrunners.
minor league splits has wallace’s defense has above average at 3b so far this year
Over fewer than 200 chances, I wouldn’t get too excited about that. Combined with last year’s ratings, he still rates below average in the minors, and Sean Smith has written that 3B ratings in the top few levels of the minors have translated to 8-9 runs lower per 500 chances in the Majors (because of the higher quality of fielders being compared to) over the time for which he has data. Add to that his poor scouting reports in the field, and I think I would look at him as more than likely a 1B and take any value he might ever provide at third as a huge bonus if it turns out that way. Granted, he wouldn’t be the first player to ever develop from an expected liability into a decent fielder if he could do it, I just would not count on it at this point.
Just because Poreda didn’t dial it up to triple digits in the big leagues doesn’t mean he can’t. And if he did that doesn’t automatically translate to success. How many 100 mph fastballs has Kyle Farnsworth thrown that haven’t landed yet? I think Poreda’s ranking of the prospects might be a little high, but he does have good movement on the fastball, and with even 2 average secondary offerings, he has the ability to pitch as a starter. After watching him every game of his big league career I see him as more of a power reliever, but White Sox fans are always singing a guys praises when he is with them, and then talking about his deficiencies when he is gone. Bottom line, its a prospect ranking nothing more.
Not just a prospect ranking – a prospect ranking of the guys that were dealt at the deadline.
I’m not too caught up in the fact that the Bell/Johnson deal is “ranked” well because I know Johnson projects to be an org. prospect (and is related to former O/tv personality Dave) and Bell has a ton of questions (dude reeks against LHP).
Now, if I were a Cards fan, I’d be happy, Holliday is hitting now, and the object is to win the games now, isn’t it? Just make Mr. Pujols happy…mmm…Jones-Markakis-Pujols-Wieters…mmm
HOw is johnson an organization prospect??????????????????????/ THIS Man is 21 year olds old in AA striking out more then 1 batter per inning. This guy is a sleeper who could be a very good starter. I dont get why idiots say hes not good. you people know nothing about him
Sleeper? How so? First of all, a guy can be very good in the minor leagues and still be an organizational player – see Salazar, Oscar; Montanez, Lou, etc.
As I said – all BA projections for Johnson state his high-upside is as a back of the rotation guy or a long reliever. K’s at High-A and AA don’t mean squat if you don’t have the other pitches to go with the fastball that Johnson has been using.
More importantly, all I know about him has been gleaned from his numbers and from reading the scouting reports. I’ll go to Bowie sometime before the season is over with and check him out first hand.