http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/try-another-pitch-fausto/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:34:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/try-another-pitch-fausto/#comment-33712 David Appelman Wed, 07 May 2008 18:42:02 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/try-another-pitch-fausto/#comment-33712 Tom: Some of the difference in FIP can be attributed to Fausto's extreme ground ball tendencies. But I would agree, he's been lucky so far this season. Tom: Some of the difference in FIP can be attributed to Fausto’s extreme ground ball tendencies. But I would agree, he’s been lucky so far this season.

]]> http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/try-another-pitch-fausto/#comment-33697 Tom Au Wed, 07 May 2008 15:02:54 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/try-another-pitch-fausto/#comment-33697 Fausto Carmona's FIP so far in 2008 is 5.05. That compares to 4.69 in 2006 and 3.94 in 2007. So there is no apparent reason for his ERA to be below 3.00. He also has an unusually low HR/FB ratio (4.3%), and his BABIP is also near his historical lows. So he appears to have been lucky, rather than good, with his high LOB rate. Reversion to the mean of either or both of these two metrics should see a flood of new runs, by pushing second- and third-base runners over the plate. Fausto Carmona’s FIP so far in 2008 is 5.05. That compares to 4.69 in 2006 and 3.94 in 2007. So there is no apparent reason for his ERA to be below 3.00. He also has an unusually low HR/FB ratio (4.3%), and his BABIP is also near his historical lows. So he appears to have been lucky, rather than good, with his high LOB rate. Reversion to the mean of either or both of these two metrics should see a flood of new runs, by pushing second- and third-base runners over the plate.

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