Twins Lock Up Span’s Arbitration Years
The Minnesota Twins and Denard Span ensured that the two won’t need the arbitration process, as Span signed a five-year contract worth $16.5 million. The deal covers Span’s two remaining league-minimum seasons, three arbitration seasons, and also contains a $9 million club option for Span’s first free agent year.
Strictly looking at the numbers, this deal is quite reasonable. According to the 40/60/80 scheme of arbitration payouts, Span is receiving $15.7 million for 1.8 free agent seasons after removing the $800K for the first two seasons. That’s paying him as a 2.5 win player, which looks like a bit of a win for the Twins given Span’s 3.25 average WAR in his career so far.
For Span, there’s definitely some monetary value in both the security offered by this deal as well as the ability to avoid the grueling arbitration hearings. Still, I find it surprising that his agent couldn’t do better for him. Span has skills that could earn him money in arbitration, such as his ability to hit for average (.311 in 2009) and to steal bases (41 SBs in two seasons). He will be moving to CF this season, and could have increased his value with another good season at the premium position.
This deal makes sense on many levels for the Twins, aside from the apparent bargain they are receiving. The move to CF for Span could be risky, but if he makes the transition well, he could perform at an all-star level as soon as this year. At 26, Span is probably yet to hit his peak as well, and that could potentially squeeze some more value out of the deal for the Twins.
What particularly makes this deal great from a team perspective for me is the timing of the deal. Many economists say that we are starting to move out of the recession, and that suggests that the marginal value of a win will likely start climbing in 2012 if not before that. By the time 2014 rolls around, $6.5 million may only buy one win instead nearly two. Even more than that, the likely inflation of the win market could make the non-guaranteed 2015 team option look fantastic if Span is still a productive player at the time.
It will be interesting to see if teams share this idea of the market as we continue through the season. If they do, look for a bunch of five- or six-year deals on pre-arbitration players to be signed to take advantage of this lull in the win market.
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Span talked about the deal after he signed. He said his agent laid everything out for him, and told Span that he could make a lot more if his performance kept up. Span said, “Still, it’s guaranteed money.”
Good thinking by Span. Yes he’ll probably get underpaid over the next few years, but there’s also the chance that he gets hurt or just “loses it”- however small that chance may be, 16.5m sets you up for life, tough to criticize a guy for taking that deal.
Maybe Hinske had a chat with Mr. Span.
Hinske certainly gives better contract advice than Jason Kubel.
He could definitely up his value with another solid year, but he could also drastically lower it with an injury. I tend to agree with Span, it’s guaranteed money and while it’s not Joe Mauer money, he can probably live off of it for awhile.
Being a Fan of the Twins this deal makes me really excited. Span seems to get very little attention for what he has done, maybe it only seems that way because I like him so much. His OBP was third among lead off hitters last year, and that in only his second year in the majors. Great deal for the twins. He will get plenty of runs in front of the M&M boys.
Was Span highly regarded by Twinkie fans when he was in the minors? I never heard much of him, perhaps that’s why he seems to be flying under the radar?
He was a first-round pick, but I think a lot of people thought he was a foolish choice when drafted. He also had a pretty lackluster minor-league career until almost immediately before being called up to the majors. So you’d be forgiven if you didn’t see him coming.
Also I think the hype put on Carlos Gomez caused Span to be shuffled more out of the spotlight.
The stock market is rising, that is why economists are saying the recession is over. To officially be out of the recession there has to be job creation at levels higher than the 100,000 it takes to stay even with young people entering the work force. Double Dip is the term everyone should be associating themselves with right now.
I think those economists are wrong.
Wassup muchos gracis for the previous blog.