Twins Sign Kubel. Why?
The Twins avoided arbitration with Jason Kubel yesterday, signing him to a two year contract that the Star-Tribune claims is for about $7 million and contains a team option for 2011 that is worth $5 million. So, the deal is either 2/7 or 3/12 for Kubel’s final two years of arbitration or his two arb years and his first year of free agency. Most people will probably consider that a good deal for the Twins – getting a useful bat under team control for reasonable prices without a long term commitment.
I’m not so sure. As R.J. noted this morning, the Pirates just signed Eric Hinske to a one year deal worth between $1 and $2 million. In what world is Jason Kubel a significnatly better player than Eric Hinske?
Kubel’s last two years show a pretty stable skillset – aggressive hitter with above average power, will take some pitches, and absolutely awful in the field. His wOBAs in 2007 and 2008 were nearly identical (.342 and .345 respectively) and are basically what we can expect from Kubel going forward. Heading into his age 27 season, Kubel is what he is – a guy with a decent bat and no defensive value. His career UZR in the OF is -18.9 in 1,375 innings, and the Twins seem to have recognized that he’s a full time DH for the rest of his career.
What’s a DH with a slightly above average bat worth? A little bit more than half a win above a replacement level player. In 2007 and 2008, Kubel accumulated a total of +1.2 wins in 983 PA. Given everyday playing time at DH, we can estimate he’ll be worth between 0.5 and 1.0 wins for 2009.
Compare that to Hinske (the guy who had to settle for a one year deal as a role player on a terrible team) – the offensive skillset is practically identical, but Hinske can actually play a competent 1B/OF. The offensive difference in their CHONE projections add up to 2-3 runs over a full season, but the defensive gap is clearly much larger. It’s hard to make a case that Kubel > Hinske.
Yes, Hinske’s five years older, but MLB is full of players with that skillset. Minnesota could have just used Hinske this year, then found his clone next winter, and so on and so forth. Same reward with none of the associated risk that goes with multiyear contracts.
I know, I know, it’s only $7 million over two years. But it’s a needless use of resources. The Twins budget isn’t that of the Yankees or Red Sox, so to contend, they need to maximize the return on all the dollars they spend. Especially in this economic climate, where good players can’t find contract offers, giving a multiyear deal to Jason Kubel doesn’t maximize the return.
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Solid analysis. It is frustrating to see DH type guys like Giambi go to Oakland on cheap short term deals while the Twins commit to a farm system player but this analysis misses a critical piece of criteria that likely played a big factor in the signing; Kubel is expected to continue to improve while Hinske’s ceiling has likely been reached. This logic may prove wrong but Kubel had an extremely impressive minor league career prior to his knee injury in the Arizona Fall League. He has made steady improvement since that injury and it’s reasonable to assume that he could continue this trend.
Also, it’s not as if the Twins had other options. They are not going to release a guy like Kubel with 2 years of arb left to save a few million dollars when they are significantly under payroll and he is yearly considered a sleeper by most Twins fans. They simply guaranteed his second year and got a reasonable team option in return.
While I agree with most of the micro analysis of this article the Kubel signing was a good move when all the factors are considered.
one thing your article is forgetting to mention is that kubel is a clubhouse guy. he is on gardy’s good side. he plays hard for him. you cannot replace the chemistry that kubel has in our clubhouse. think about it this way, if we were to flat out release him, it would send a message to other players. a bad message. it would be that if you’re not morneau or mauer even if you work your butt off, we are going to get rid of you when we get the chance to save a few bucks. it was a loyal move on the twins part. i would have loved to bring in the giambino or someone of his caliber, but it was the right move for the twins to make…………here comes another famous line by the twins organization….. for our future.
I agree with Ry. Hinske does nothing for the Twins. Sure he may have more defensive value, but as pointed out in the article, Hinske has value at 1B/OF. Neither of which the Twins need any help at. They have 4 starter worthy OF already with good minor league depth and a MVP 1B that plays everyday. The age factor along with upside make this a better deal then Hinske.
Also agree with the micro analysis in the article and it makes good points.
What about 3B though?
The other problem with this analysis is that we are talking about an organization that almost never looks at a position and says “we’ve got this player that’s been with us for a while, and there is a slightly better option out there, so we are dumping our guy to go with the improvement.” The Twins will always stick with their guy.
This has some obvious negatives–they may not field the best statistical team. But the positives–stability, loyalty, are real, as well.
Also, compare Kubel’s track record to David Ortiz before they released him. Their numbers are eerily similar. The Twins aren’t going to come close to making that mistake again…
From the outside looking in, your analysis is reasonable, Dave. However, as someone who follows the Twins way too much, I have to agree with Ry Guy above. The organization has struggled mightily to find even replacement-level DH plate appearances; this signing pretty much guarantees that we’ll get above-average production from that slot for the next 3 years. I’d argue that you’re taking way fewer risks with Kubel than with Hinske clones, as well — rolling the dice that those guys aren’t going to collapse seems like far worse odds than hoping that Kubel stays healthy and productive without subjecting his knees to the outfield (yes, he’s terrible there, so he’ll get maybe [maybe] 20 games in the field hopefully).
Plus, you’ve got to consider that Kubel *does* have some upside, which you’re sure as heck not getting from a Hinske clone. That’s worth something, no doubt. The guy absolutely mashed until that knee injury, and he’s been steadily improving in the last few years.
Besides, we’ve got room on the 25 to carry a no-field DH type. We’re actually pretty covered when it comes to the defensive depth chart. You just know Gardy would insist on another no-hit moderate-defense middle infielder in the absence of Kubel.
It seems to me that this analysis presupposes that Kubel has virtually no upside left. While this may very well be true, I’d bet the Twins disagree.
If Kubel jumps up to around a .360 wOBA for the next few years and is used primarily at DH, he’s certainly not a steal, but he’s at least a good value for a pretty small payout.
I may have irrational love for the guy though. I’ve been waiting for a real Kubel breakout for a few years.
I would have to disagree with this article. He has improved over the last two years and he had a very good minor league track record. So, to think last year was the first year he has not had any lingering affects from his knee injury and the fact he is only 27 so there is room for so more improvement.
This is a rediculous article by Dave Cameron. He is flat out wrong on this one. Kubel is 27 years old and has shown above average power, capable of hitting 20-30 homeruns as DH, while driving in 80-90 RBI’s with a .280 + average. That is the best DH the Twins have had in a long, long time. He is worth the money and is certainly cheap for a DH of his age that is still up and coming.
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Eric Hinske is already 31/32 years old and on the downside of his career. This is a no-brainer signing by the Twins. Hardly a mistake or gaff by there management to sign Kubes.
I am pretty sure that this site was created to express that HR, RBI, and average are antiquated and poor statistical tools. I think you are posting in the wrong place.
Uh, ok, how about now his wOBA is .390, and home runs and batting average are a significant part of overall batting success. So maybe you should go create another site where you can ban folks who use antiquated statistical tools like home runs.
And, I’m pretty sure most people skipped over the rest of your comment, Chris, after the disgusting spelling error in the first sentence. I guess it’s an unfair prejudice to believe that an inability to spell (or use spell check!) precludes an informed opinion, but it’s no worse than judging a player solely by his RBI’s and batting average.
And I wish I’d skipped the rest of your post after the dead giveaway spelling bee master pomposity of your first sentence. Did you ever think maybe he was typing fast and didn’t bother to spellcheck some quick comment section post?
Oh, and there’s no apostrophe; it’s “RBIs”, and I’d prefer you’d use RBI for the plural. But that’s just me. OK, douchelord?
I think Kubel will be worth more than one win this season. I see him as a potential breakout candidate if he learns to lay off a few more pitches and be more patient.
I understand Hinkse is awful at 3B but his bat would be better than most options they have at 3B. Just a thought. Have Kubel and Hinske.
I’m sorry, your solution is to cut a 27 year old guy with two years of arbitration left and sign Eric Hinske? Really?
It’s not as if they signed some 33 year old pitcher to a seven year deal. Look, we know the ills of long-term contracts; apparently so do the Twins. They signed a guy for a reasonable amount and won an option year.
It’s pretty great that this many people feel strongly about Jason Kubel, of all people. Baseball!
I’m going to agree with the sentiment that the “cut Somewhat Overrated Fan Favorite, sign Replacement Level, cut Replacement Level, sign new Replacement Level…” is probably an oversimplification of what it takes to run a successful franchise. If Twins fans would rather pay a little bit more to watch Jason Kubel than to watch Random One-Year Clone #642 – and it’s my guess that they would – then the front office is making the right decision here.
There’s a worthwhile point under this – depending on one’s age and a bunch of intangibles, one’s monetary value varies greatly – but this article doesn’t quite put its finger on that.
Thje Twins have been critisized for letting David Ortiz go – look at what he’s done for Boston.
Here are stats for two players in their last 4 years with the Twins. Which is Kubel and which is Ortiz?
G 354 365
AB 1150 1161
R 158 156
H 300 311
2B 85 63
3B 3 7
HR 48 43
RBI 186 176
SB 3 8
CS 2 2
BB 145 106
SO 248 224
BA .261 .268
OBP .344 .329
SLG * .465 .445
TB 535 517
SH 1 3
SF 16 14
IBB 10 4
HBP 4 1
GDP 26 34
Hint: Kubel might be a little faster, gimpy knees and all, but being lower in the batting order the IBB’s don’t come as often and double plays come a little more often.
Forgot to list the ages – both were 26 in their last year with the Twins
Sure Kubel and Hinske put up relatively similar numbers. But Kubel is just entering his prime where I could see his numbers getting still better, while Hinske has never taken his jump from his rookie year. He had actually gotten progressively worse almost til last season. I’ll take Kubel for the next 3 years avging at 4 mill a year if he puts up .275/25/80. That’s not bad for a dh to Twins standards, we’ll never go out in the market and pay 10 mill a year for someone to come in and hit 40 hrs. It’s just gonna have to happen within, and I feel pretty good about Kubel’s ability with the bat.
“Minnesota could have just used Hinske this year, then found his clone next winter, and so on and so forth.”
Ya…because this has worked really well for the Twins in the past.
I agree Russ, it’s not like anyone else they sign contributes much of anything, and I wouldn’t like Eric Hinske coming in cause he’s not gonna do what he did last year again.
Am I wrong or are the Twins not buying out his remaing two years fo arbitration? If they settle and take him to arb he probably gets something close to 3.5 next year, and any improvements and he is likely to make over 3.5 the following year. Either way the Twins were going to have to spend that money on him if they wanted to keep him on the roster so I really don’t see how comparing the two contracts is valuable at all. If you want to make a case that arbitration artifically inflates the value of a player simply becasue of age, fine, but i don’t see that as the premise of this arguement.
basically the twins had three options
1) allow Kubel arbitration and pay him somewhere around 1.5-2 million this year, and than revist the problem next year where it is possible, with a poor season, that the could be cheaper than the 3.5 million. Or risk the more likely outcome that he has a season similar to, or better than last year, and is awarded a higher arb rate.
2) Cut him altogether and settle on a one year contract with Hinske at a lower wage, but be stuck with the same DH prob again the year after
3) Or sign him to the contract they did (reasonable) and hope that he continues to improve in which case they pick up the Option year and get an above replacement level DH for 3 years on a reasonable contract.
(We could have a forth option of, sign both of them, but they offer basically the same skillset so that would be unwise).
I believe option three is the best short term and long term approach for the Twins.
Hinske signed for $1-2MM PLUS INCENTIVES. I’ll bet if he makes pretty much the same as Kubel this year. It’s the $5M option that the Twins really stole in the deal. If Kubel’s upside is as advertised, they get a steal on the 1st free agent year. If Kubel produces as-is they got cost certainty at the going rate (no arb hearing next year).
I don’t agree with your analysis at all I am a twins fan and watched every game last year this is a great deal for the twins, kubel has plenty of power which the twins despretly need and had a good year where he was neck and neck with morneau for team lead in hrs for a while…he is a very good hitter who had the injury a couple years ago and is finally fully healthy now why would they get rid of him now he is finally healthy and putting up good numbers? It is mind boggling you would think they should cut him now the twins finally have a consistant dh which has been a problem in recent years. One last point I don’t think his defense is quite as terrible as you make it out to be.
Congratulations, most of you fantastically missed the point.
I wasn’t suggesting that the Twins should have cut Kubel and signed Hinske instead. I was using Hinske as an example of what this player type actually costs to acquire. The question is why the Twins unnecessarily locked themselves into Jason Kubel for 2010 when they didnt’ have to. He’s not the kind of player you sign to multiyear deals – he’s the kind of player you go year to year with, and then upgrade on when you have the chance.
Why not give yourself cost certainty if you can, and it will not kill you finnacially even if, at the moment, it is inflated a little bit? Afterall if you want to upgrade when the contract is over you deny the option.
You don’t want cost certainty with marginal players. You want flexibility with marginal players, because they go bust frequently and often need to be unexpectedly replaced.
Jason Kubel is a marginal player. An organization is better off having the ability to replace him in July if they’re contending than they are locking themselves into paying him 2009 dollars in 2010.
How is Jason Kubel a “marginal player?” Upon looking at the home run statistics for players 26 and under (Kubel’s age last year, I think) he was tied for 22nd. He has been in the majors for approximately 3 seasons (2 full years and parts of 2 others). He was one of the top hitting prospects in the Twins organization (regarded as close to, if not equal to, Mauer and Morneau). He is finally healthy and being used with some regularity. Locking up Kubel is indicitive of a league wide trend of locking in young players for several years. It is an absolute stretch to say that Kubel has “peaked.”
Unfortunately, Justin, a player’s rank on the list of career HR for active players under 26 carries a WAR of zero. Home runs are nice, but a guy’s ability to occasionally hit a ball over a fence is not a catch-all stat for offensive ability.
I’ve liked Kubel for awhile and like to think that he has a little offensive upside left, but he’s pretty clearly a guy with zero defensive versatility. The move isn’t a disaster, and I think it could end up as a decent value in terms of marginal win per dollar, but Dave’s right that Kubel isn’t a special player in need of being locked up. His ultimate upside is probably ~2-2.5 WAR as a DH, and that’s if he fulfills his .300/.340/.550 upside, which I highly doubt at this point.
But, isn’t a player, who if he reaches his upside of 0.300/0.340/0.550 worth the price the Twins have/will pay for him? The fact is, the Twins have been burned previously by giving up on a player too early (see David Ortiz). And, when you factor in the fact that the Twins are a small or mid market team, it is important for them to know their costs. This is especially true given the number of young players that will become arbitration eligible for the Twins in the next few years. I don’t have a problem with this signing at all, in fact I think that it will prove to be a thrifty signing. I do not think that he has reached his peak as a hitter, and I think it is not beyond comprehension that he could be a 0.280/30/100 guy. Now, I understand a little about the WAR formula, but am by no means an expert. But, I do understand the need for a power bat in the Twins lineup, both for production and for protection of the other bats in the lineup. Therefore, I do not have any qualms with signing a player (for two years, with an option) who still has potential upside. And, I will concede that Kubel has no value in the field, but the great thing about the American League is that not everyone on your team has to be competent with the glove.
All in all, I understand the argument that you can go year to year with a player like Kubel, but if you believe in their potential, it is smart to lock them in to a fiscally responsible contract.
I’m with Dave, sorry. Kubel is probably not gonna get much better, if at all. I’d rather go year to year with somebody of equal value but only locked for one year. This guy has Ben Grieve written all over him!
You’re right that if Kubel reaches his ultimate ceiling it becomes a good value contract.
Dave’s objection is that the Twins are locking up the DH position for 2 years on a guy who’s not an established masher, and could very well have already peaked. I agree that the Twins think he has more upside, but even the most optimistic believer in Kubel’s upside has to admit that the end result will probably fall between where he was in ‘07/’08 and what you think he could be if everything goes as right as humanly possible. If Kubel doesn’t reach that upside, he’s just not that valuable, even though he’s got a decent bat. Designated Hitters need to be really, really good to be worth locking up long-term.
Your article states,
“Yes, Hinske’s five years older, but MLB is full of players with that skillset. Minnesota could have just used Hinske this year, then found his clone next winter, and so on and so forth. Same reward with none of the associated risk that goes with multiyear contracts.”
That sounds like a recommendation of cutting Kubel in favor of Hinske to me. Please don’t lash out at your readers when they make a reasonable interpretation of your writing. If anything, it’s the writing that could have been clearer.
Well Dave, Congratulations would be in order for you as well then… for having written poorly enough to have caused your readed TO miss the point.
The word marginal was thrown around, which I find entirely interesting considering he’s the 3rd best hitter in the Twins lineup. I guess that would make the entirety of our lineup, minus Morneau and Mauer… marginal or worse. By the way, Kubel was already arbitrationally locked in for 2010. The 2011 year has a player and team option attached to it. To buy in, 1 year, for 3 million dollars, for someone that hits .270/20HR… He’ll be 29 years old and that will be a bargain at that point, considering the FA Market.
Fun arguments though.
Z
Zach,
Jason Kubel was worth .5 WAR last year. First, he wasn’t the Twins’ third-best hitter last year. That award goes to Denard Span, whose .364 wOBA crushes Kubel’s .345. If you want to limit it to guys who pretty much played the whole season Kubel becomes the 3rd best hitter…out of 5 (only Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Delmon Young, and Carlos Gomez logged > 500 PA last year).
The point that you’re missing is that Kubel gave it all back on defense. He was awful, and the Twins just signed him as a DH. The positional adjustment for DH takes about 16 runs off of a player’s total value over 600 plate appearances. Kubel’s never been anywhere near 16 runs above average with the bat, which is what he’d need to be in order to be a league average player next year.
.5 WAR is a marginal player. Kubel needs to take a huge leap forward to justify this deal.
I think Poe could have written this and it wouldn’t have mattered. People who believe that Jason Kubel = David Ortiz aren’t going to be convinced by logic or stellar writing abilities.
Dave,
Me thinks you doth protest too much.
The point of pointing out that Kubel is reaching his age 27 season isn’t to compare him dead on to Ortiz. It’s to point out that there may be more in the tank with Kubel. Two years from now, he could very well be in the same boat as Hinske. Or, he could make the adjustments and become a good 5 hole hitter. Kubel was well thought of in scouting communities, and 27 is generally the magic number for when a hitter either blooms or busts.
The Twins will pay Kubel $2.75 million next year. Their arbritration offer was $2.4 million and Kubel wanted $3.4 million. Next year, Kubel makes $4.1 million, which is probably pretty near to what he would have gotten in arbritration in 2010 assuming he puts up a similar/slightly better line in 2010. If he breaks out and becomes the hitter everyone thought he would be when he ranked near the top of the prospect lists in 2004 (and remember, you’re talking about a kid who boasts a career .320 minor league batting average versus Hinske’s .285 mark), he suddenly becomes a bargin. If not, he’s slightly overpaid, but its hardly a Torry-hate crime.
The problem with lumping Kubel in with Hinske is that Kubel’s future isn’t written yet. He may well be Hinske. He may well be the left-handed Edgar Martinez. More than likely, he’s somewhere in between.
The Twins could buy low on Hinske this year but who is to say that Hinske would come as cheap in a year when the economy is up. Now there is cost certainty with Kubel for 3 years.
Retaining a decent player like Kubel also presents marketing opportunities that might be lost with a mercenary like Hinske. Kubel is from South Dakota (Twins Territory) and retaining him over a longer term will increase the probability people buy his jersey or follow his career with the Twins. This is only a small portion of his profitability, however.
I think the word marginal is being applied too liberally. Whether it’s being used as a synonym for average or replacement level it under values Kubel even at his current production. I’m sure his stats and salary easily rank him in the top half of DHs in 2008.
Lots of good points, but I think that this is a bit like crying over spilled milk. Paying a bit more for the devil you know is more than acceptable, considering age and the kind of production you can expect. Besides, why run the risk of hoping there’s Jasic Hinkubel on the market for a reasonable price every year for the next three years when you already have him?
Multi-year deals are always about wieghing risk versus potential benefits, and all things considered I still think this is a good signing for the Twins. It’s not big news, but it’s better than seeing them going dumpster diving for fading veterans.
I can’t believe all of these ridiculous stat comparisons people are coming out with these days. These guys are human beings, not robots. While “sophisticated” numbers can help you see trends, everything ultimately comes down to the humanity of the player.
Kubel has the talent to be a stud if given a healthy dose of at-bats. The Twins (who are immensely better at player evaluation than anyone reading this article) know this, and they realize what a great organizational man he can be. Thank God their front office realizes that running an MLB team isn’t just a business, it’s a family, and that’s why the Twins Organization is so classy. There’s more to baseball than just stats.
How could you possibly compare these two? Oh, I’m sorry, your fancy number breakdowns are telling you that Hinske is comparable to Kubel….good call. I’ll put it this way….if my team released Hinske and signed Kubel I would be ecstatic.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4606
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6102
If you have a bitter disdain for “fancy number breakdowns,” you might be on the wrong site…
there was a link on cbssportsline
Really? Those two players don’t look at ALL alike to you?
The only difference is that Hinske gets on base by taking walks and hit for more power.
“The only difference is that Hinske gets on base by taking walks and hit for more power.”
Huh?
Kubel beats Hinske for the last two years in SLG and OBP.
I care about a player’s OBP, not how many times he walks.
.335 to .333 is virtually identical. Hinske did it by taking walks, Kubel did it with a higher BA. Hinske’s isolated discipline and isolated power crush Kubel’s. I’m not looking at Hinske’s 2007 much at all – he wasn’t anything close to a regular and the sample’s too small.
Kubel – better at hitting singles.
Hinske – better at taking walks and hitting doubles and home runs.
Ultimate output: these guys were pretty much the same hitter last year.
I don’t know. 118 OPS+ to 107 OPS+? Kubel offense rate stats were 10% better than HInske in 2008. You can’t ignore recent history.
Besides, we’re not talking about who the better player was in 2008 or who walks more or whose ISO is higher. We’re looking at who would be a better investment in 2009-2010.
HInske’s most optimistic projections put him at a .769 OPS for 2009, Kubel’s most pessimistic projection puts him at .778. The bottom line is that Kubel, by all projections and his age figures to be better than Hinske in 2009-2010…remember they needed a DH not an outfielder.
I think the bigger question is: If your signing your worst defensive outfielder (most likely a DH anyway) to a multi year deal, then where the hell does Delmon Young fit in with Gardy’s man crush for Cuddyer in right field?
Span is a true center fielder but will most likely be in left, and this club has to attempt to justify the Santana trade and leave Gomez in center.
If they split a right/left DH role with Kubel and Young that would be a waste.
You don’t think a Span/Gomez platoon would be the most likely option? Both those guys are still developing, so letting them platoon would seem to be a wise thing to do if you’re trying to get them both playing time at the major league level. They’re both great defenders. Span could also split time with Cuddyer in right under the same conditions.
Never gave that option much thought, could be interesting, just don’t know what favorite Gardy will go with.
I hope that’s not an option. Their bats are developing, but they’re both very good outfielders. With four low-K, flyball pitchers in their rotation, they need both those guys (and need just as badly NOT to have two of Cuddy, Delmon and Kubel) out there.
There is absolutely no reason to take any at-bats whatsoever away from Denard Span. He was the third most valuable hitter on the team last year and showed a broad range of repeatable skills, taking walks, hitting for power, and playing good defense. He was worth 2.5 WAR in just over half a season last year and there’s no reason to think it was a fluke. He could easily be an all-star level performer next year. Platooning that kind of talent would be a dumb move.
Well, THAT’s a bit strong. Span has three full minor league seasons’ worth of reasons to believe it’s a fluke (and the fact that he had an extreme reverse platoon split in the majors in ‘08, which is crazy out of line with his minors numbers from ‘06-’08, is troubling too)…I’m hopeful, but there’s just no way anyone can be that certain about him one way or the other…
I’m glad to see I wasn’t the only one who thought this offering was garb…problematic. Dave, I’ve never seen you be anything but spot-on, but this just misses the mark completely. The main thing is that there’s absolutely no reason to suppose that a 26 year old who was set back for about two years by injury “is what he is.” Ortiz, though obviously way too much for anyone to hope for, is actually a pretty good comp up through Kubel’s current age. So are Gibson and O’Neill from his BBREF comp list. Of course there’s no guarantee that he’ll be anything like any of those guys, but at a trivial (even to the Twins) price, it’s absolutely a worthwhile gamble that he will. And they’ve only locked him down for what figure to be the three best seasons of his entire career–it’s not like we’re talking about the Longoria deal here.
And it just makes no sense at all (almost entirely BECAUSE Kubel could definitely have some room left to grow, so this is sort of double-counting) to compare Kubel to Hinske at this point in the former’s career. When Kubel is 31 and has proven that he’s NOT Ortiz, then yeah, definitely year-to-year.
Your arguement glosses over one major factor and that is that he is young enough to still have potential and a chance to improve his productivity. At this moment in time he is a marginal player, but with just over 1100 major league AB’s he has improved in wOBA, OPS, SLG, and OBP over the last three years and there is still a distinct possiblity that he will continue to trend upward as he reaches the typical prime years.
The Twins must believe that he has enough potential to improve thru 2011 and would rather know what they are going to be paying him, and yet still have the option of letting him go after 2010 if he doesn’t. But I don’t see how they lose flexibilty to improve the team or replace him in July if they needed to, by buying out his arbitration years.
The problem with this analysis is that Jason Kubel is awesome, and the author is clearly jealous. That’s fine, I’m jealous of my buddy Kubes for his awesomeness too, but I didn’t make a baseball post based on my relative inferiority.
“Yes, Hinske in 5 years older….”
This is pretty much the end of your argument right here. Kubel is entering his prime while Hinske in the twilight of his. That’s why therein lies the salary difference. Also, Hinske is in one of the worst free agent markets in years while Kubel and the Twins were settling arbitration. So your comparison is apples to oranges.
Where did the people who understand and/or like numbers go?
I love numbers! The fatal flaw here, the declaration that Kubel “is what he is,” isn’t based on numbers or history or, as far as I can tell, anything tangible at all.
Correct. Isn’t the whole point of statistical analysis to project, not to view the numbers in stasis?
You do realize Jason Kubel destroyed his knee three years ago and spent an entire year coming back from that, then two years ago fought through pain and readjusting and just finally started to get back in a groove near the end of last year. So you’re statement that “Kubel’s last two years show a pretty stable skillset” is pretty much wrong. You can’t base him on his last two years because he’s been fighting through injury. Look back at his minor league record. He was coming through the minors at the same time as Justin Morneau and was generally considered the better hitting prospect. Would you sign Justin Morneau to a 3/12 deal? I know the Twins already have Morneau through 2013, but of course in the reverse situation you’d sign Morneau.
Also, way to knock his defense, because it’s not like the Twins have 4 of the best defensive outfields in baseball ahead of him.
If the Twins’ only other outfield options were Jack Black, Homer Simpson, and the exhumed corpse of Chris Farley, Jason Kubel’s outfield defense would still suck.
The point isn’t that Kubel is a bad hitter. The point is that he’s not good enough to lock down a DH position for several years. He needs to be a WAY better hitter than he is to be an asset, because he has absolutely no value outside of his bat.
Jason Kubel also showed more upside in his minor league career.
He was a much better athlete before he hurt his knee and he was just finally starting to recover from that. He even stole 16 bases in AAA before his knee injury and has since put some more weight and muscle on. It seems to me he’s still trying to get adjusted to that.
Each year of his professional career, his slugging percentage continued to rise. If it continues to do so, with his skill set at the plate, he’ll be drawing more walks and improving his OBP. To say we’ve seen Kubel’s upside seems a bit ridiculous.
Kubel posted an OPS+ of 118, a number Hinske hasn’t seen since his rookie year.
Neither gets on-base very well but I like Kubel’s bat better. The defense is a great point…if htis wasn’t the Twins. There’s no room for Hinske in the outfield or at first relegating him (primarily) to DH. Kubel beats him, just looking at bat and age. The price is a little steep (maybe $2.5-3 million would be better) but it’s a short deal and there is a very real possibility that Kubel is a late bloomer. Kubel’s plate discipline was much better in the minors..could be possible improvement in that category.
Kubel’s projections show him doing almost exactly what he did this past year.
Since we all claim to love numbers so much, let’s tackle them, eh? Kubel’s CHONE projection is for about +6 runs in 450 PA. Marcel has him at +2 over 500 PA. Call him +6 over 700. Plus 25 for AL replacement, minus 17.5 for position is +13.5 . If the Twins want to give him 600 PA, that’s 1.15 WAR (about .75 WAR if you only give +20 for replacement, even in the AL). So, assuming the Twins like him enough to play him full-time and realize that he should stick to DH (and since they have 4 other OFs, that shouldn’t be a stretch), he should command about $4.5-5.5 million on the open market. A 60/80 split for the last two arb years is exactly $7 million, so it’s a fine deal.
Dave’s point is that although it’s a fine deal, Kubel’s not special enough to lock up long-term. But he is special enough to have on one’s roster, which is why the Twins signed him to the slight discount. The reason they did this instead of going after the Hinskes of the free agent pool is pretty obvious: Kubel has a fair amount of upside, being only 26 (27 on 5/25) and having lost substantial development time to injury, and the Twins were able to tack on an option for the first free agent year, which will be well worth it if Kubel improves his offense enough to be even an average player.
The flaws in Dave’s argument, I think, are the contention that Kubel and Hinske are similarly “what they are,” and the subsequent claim that we can estimate that Kubel will be worth between .5 and 1 win as a full-time DH. The low-end projection for Kubel may be .5 wins but a modestly optimistic projection (CHONE in full playing time) is more like 1.3 wins. In addition to paying arb rates for this production, the Twins are buying the chance at a well-below-market free agent year if Kubel achieves his potential. Kubel’s skill-set is not unique, true, but his potential is far from common. This is something that the Hinskes of the free agent pool can only dream about, and it’s worth paying for, especially when you get to pay well below market for it.
Dont know if it was mentioned but did you notice Rob Neyer quote your article in his blog???
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3866726&name=Neyer_Rob
Not sure how this is a bad deal or how Kubel is similar to Hinske.
Kubel’s BA is 30 point higher, more RBI, much younger and seems to be improving some each year. Hinske had put up similare numbers to what he did last season in 4 of 7 seasons. All of the projections seem to favor Kubel and some by a good margin. Hinske is past the developemental stage in his career,IMO, while Kubel is still moving toward his peak.
As things stand now, Kubel is the better player. If you look to the future Kubel is a lot more likely to improve thank Hinske.
Filipe Lopez got $3.5/year ,Ramon Vasquez got $4m/year, Willy Tavares got over $3M/year. Kubel is a superior hitter to all of these guys. Yes, they play the field more/better but I think Kubel’s hittings stull puts him in the right pay scale for the market.
What do you think of Jason Kubel NOW!!! BYAAHHH! This is why the Twins signed him. He has shown promise in the minors, and he only turns 27 this year. He has a chance to be a well above-average hitter the next few years.
The initial post was deeply flawed because it entirely ignored Kubel’s terrific minor league performances in age-appropriate leagues. Such performances (especially when married to Kubel’s outstanding BB/K ratios) almost invariably portend eventual MLB excellence.
Kubel’s early career–as mentioned by others–was chopped up by injuries. Now entering his prime, it wouldn’t be surprising if Kubel posts a .900+ OPS over the next few seasons. And even a .950 or two shouldn’t shock anyone who’s followed his career since A-ball.
I think a follow up article is in order. There was some decent number crunching, analysis and good natured discussion back in January. Now we have some interesting player data from this season. Cameron, how about a revisit to this subject at some point this season.
Check out Kubel’s first half numbers. The article written failed to to take into account the fact that at one time Kubel was considered a better prospect than Morneau. He had a series of knee issues, which curtailed his performance. Eric Hinske has no upside to a younger player like Kubel who has shown a proclivity for power.
Sickels had the better take here.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/2/3/748475/jason-kubel-prospect-retro
Good ol’ “year to year” strikes again!
Welp, you can’t win ‘em all…
I’m going to not be an asshole and postgame QB this, but yay for Twinkie crazypeople luck.
Plenty of folks weren’t assholes and posted about it before the season started. This outcome was not completely unexpected given Kubels’ minor league numbers prior to a severe knee injury. Sickels also thought Kubel might break out.
Most of Kubel’s peripherals are identical to what he’s done before. BB%, K%, LD/GB/FB% have barely changed. Meanwhile, BAbip and HR/FB % have both spiked. Yeah, that wouldn’t be a fluke, though.
/sarcasm
Partly right. ISO is up from .199 to .248 however.
Wouldn’t that result from the increased HR/FB %, though? I agree that for hitters, that and BAbip are controllable, but given that Kubel hasn’t gotten faster, switched handedness, increased his LD%, or done any of those things that affect BAbip, I think it’s fair to say that the spike is luck-related. As for the HR/FB, he certainly could have jumped legitimately. But again, given the consistency of the rest of the profile, isn’t it far more likely that he’s structurally the same player? Those last two sentences were actually in response to Reed, btw.
In fairness, an increased HR/FB % is not necessarily a sign of a hitter being lucky.
In reply to Kevin S., he is also structurally the same player as when he smoked the ball in the minors, other than a knee injury robbing some speed. He had a not especially large major league sample as he healed and was slightly improving. Sure, he may not be a plus .920 ops player every year, but this isn’t completely unexpected, or any more “luck” than his prior seasons bad luck. Average it out, and I assume he will be somewhat better than his first couple of seasons next year too.
I laughed at this article when it was written and I haven’t stopped laughing since. Thanks for the best joke of the year!
Eric Hinske is the biggest punch line in Twins fandom since Mark Prior.
Why did you laugh when it was written? What logic did you use to conclude Dave’s was preposterous? How were you so confident the ball with legs and arms was going to do better going forward than the normal player with similar stats?
What is about Jason Kubel (other than that he plays for your favorite team and the worst manager in the league loves him) that made you say “Kubel is going to have a good AVG and HR this year?” If there is anything, please share with the Twins front office, or sell your services to any other MLB franchise. Teams would love to be able to find guys who put up exactly the same stats as other players but who do better than expected the next year. There’s variability, and the Twins played their gut. This year it has worked (so far) but it still doesn’t make it a good deal. Every now and then you would win in blackjack if you hit on 20 when the dealer is showing a 6, but that doesn’t mean you should have hit.
Well, how about the fact that a 26-year-old who had great numbers in the minors and put up wOBAs in the .340s while coming back from a major knee injury has probably not played up to his full potential? And how about that potential being substantially larger that that of a guy who’s five years older and on the downside of his career? The Twins bought low on a guy who had a solid chance of being a major contributor over the next few seasons, with three Hinske-like seasons as his downside. That’s exactly how a smaller-market team should be using its resources. It’s more like doubling down on 11 than hitting on 20.
And really, “worst manager in the league”? Come on.
I’ll agree “worst” is an overstatement. But he is definately bottom half.
Kubel is still a platoon DH, that is not doubling down on 11.
typical dave cameron article
At mid-season Kubel is posting a much higher wOBA (.396) and ZIPS now has him projected to end the season at .388 (ie regressing a bit to .364 for the rest of the season). Mostly this is due to a .351 BABIP, which is much higher than his career value (which has mostly bumped around .300). On top of that his fielding numbers, while still negative, are not quite as bad as the past couple of years, though we know any one year’s UZR does not a trend make. But most of his improvement has been in his offensive numbers.
So what is going on at the plate? His swing rate has gone up somewhat and his contact rate has gone down the same amount, but he’s already at 31 BB in 319 PA, vs 47 in 517 last year, so even though he’s not showing more patience his improved offense seems to be causing pitchers to treat him more carefully (already 8 IBB vs 2 all of last year). When he does get something to hit he’s punishing them (.245 ISO this year, a big jump over .199 last year, though there’s been a clear upward trend with that stat over his career).
As it stands in mid-late July, the Twins made a good deal here — they’re getting much better production than Hinske, and yet so far have paid Kubel less than he’s worth. The question is whether this will continue going forward. His HR/FB rate has jumped to a career high of 17.4% (though he reached almost 15% in 2006), so some of it is power. But his infield hit percentage has also jumped from 4% last year to 6.5% this year, some of it is luck (because his speed score has actually dropped this year). Batters do have some control over BABIP, so if Kubel has figured something out and is able to drive more balls into gaps (and the seats) consistently, then this might be a legit improvement. He’s got the rest of the season to regress (he’s probably not going to keep beating out so many infield hits), and there’s still next year, but for now it looks like the Twins got a bargain after all.
Care to revisit this article? Eat your words, perhaps?
Only if he also revisits all the articles where his analysis turned out to be spot on (and made you eat them). And if he did that, revisiting both his victories and failures, he wouldn’t have time for anything new. And then what would you have to lazily snark at?
Maybe Kubel is on a roll, growing into the player he could be, and maybe the Twins saw something others (not just Dave) didn’t. Or maybe he’s a one-season wonder, and the Twins lucked into lightning in a bottle just in time to make a run at the post season, and he’ll never have a year like this again. Both are possible. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
My mid-season analysis above still stands: he’s at a career high for both IF hits and BABIP, so a good chunk of this could still be luck. And he’s still a liability in the outfield.
I’m sure in the pre-season next year Dave will get around to looking at Kuble again, since he tends to analyze all of the teams’ outlooks eventually. Unless Kubel turns out to be a key piece of a World Series Twins team, I don’t see any need to revisit this until then.
Kubel produced a 3.0 WAR season. This is what Twins expected of him once he finally got his health all the way back. And by signing him before this season, they saved a lot of money.