Maybe Kubel is on a roll, growing into the player he could be, and maybe the Twins saw something others (not just Dave) didn’t. Or maybe he’s a one-season wonder, and the Twins lucked into lightning in a bottle just in time to make a run at the post season, and he’ll never have a year like this again. Both are possible. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

My mid-season analysis above still stands: he’s at a career high for both IF hits and BABIP, so a good chunk of this could still be luck. And he’s still a liability in the outfield.

I’m sure in the pre-season next year Dave will get around to looking at Kuble again, since he tends to analyze all of the teams’ outlooks eventually. Unless Kubel turns out to be a key piece of a World Series Twins team, I don’t see any need to revisit this until then.

So what is going on at the plate? His swing rate has gone up somewhat and his contact rate has gone down the same amount, but he’s already at 31 BB in 319 PA, vs 47 in 517 last year, so even though he’s not showing more patience his improved offense seems to be causing pitchers to treat him more carefully (already 8 IBB vs 2 all of last year). When he does get something to hit he’s punishing them (.245 ISO this year, a big jump over .199 last year, though there’s been a clear upward trend with that stat over his career).

As it stands in mid-late July, the Twins made a good deal here — they’re getting much better production than Hinske, and yet so far have paid Kubel less than he’s worth. The question is whether this will continue going forward. His HR/FB rate has jumped to a career high of 17.4% (though he reached almost 15% in 2006), so some of it is power. But his infield hit percentage has also jumped from 4% last year to 6.5% this year, some of it is luck (because his speed score has actually dropped this year). Batters do have some control over BABIP, so if Kubel has figured something out and is able to drive more balls into gaps (and the seats) consistently, then this might be a legit improvement. He’s got the rest of the season to regress (he’s probably not going to keep beating out so many infield hits), and there’s still next year, but for now it looks like the Twins got a bargain after all.

Kubel is still a platoon DH, that is not doubling down on 11.

And really, “worst manager in the league”? Come on.

What is about Jason Kubel (other than that he plays for your favorite team and the worst manager in the league loves him) that made you say “Kubel is going to have a good AVG and HR this year?” If there is anything, please share with the Twins front office, or sell your services to any other MLB franchise. Teams would love to be able to find guys who put up exactly the same stats as other players but who do better than expected the next year. There’s variability, and the Twins played their gut. This year it has worked (so far) but it still doesn’t make it a good deal. Every now and then you would win in blackjack if you hit on 20 when the dealer is showing a 6, but that doesn’t mean you should have hit.