Comments on: Twins Team Win Values

By: Adam Peterson

Adam Peterson — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 03:14:33 +0000

They might be the only team with a “move ‘em over” signal. A hitter will actually be chewed out if they single to left field with a runner on second base and no outs. Everyone knows they should hit a can of corn grounder to second…

By: Adam Peterson

Adam Peterson — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 03:12:45 +0000

I finally posted my “Total Run Accounting” analysis.

See http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/1/28/738577/total-run-accounting-team

The Twins weren’t the second best baserunning team in the majors, they were actually 7th, about 16 runs behind the Phillies.

However, they were about 27 runs better at the “little things” (baserunning, moving runners over) than any other team in baseball. Imagine what Minnesota could do combining this with some appreciation of sabermetrics…

By: Adam Peterson

Adam Peterson — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 03:07:56 +0000

What do you mean, Minnesota versus Texas? Texas was outscored by their opponents 901-967 while Minnesota outscored their opponents 829-745.

It all comes down to pitching…

By: Xeifrank

Xeifrank — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:01:00 +0000

I am glad you posted this and the Rangers team win values. I saw little reason during the season that the Twins were as good as they were and the Rangers as bad.
vr, Xei

By: Dave Cameron

Dave Cameron — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 03:25:00 +0000

Yea, that’s a terrific piece of work by PhoenixV. I wish I had seen that before I wrote this.

By: BJ

BJ — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:37:25 +0000

I’m assuming that situational performance has a lower year to year correlation than FIP and wOBA, but just how much lower is it?

Also does a certain strategy such as emphasizing small ball, as Adam mentions, work better in higher leverage situations, and therefore consistently produce better results it those situations than with the bases empty? I guess you’d be looking for correlation from year to year for a team which maintained a certain strategy of having a consistent difference of OPS+ with bases loaded vs. empty

By: Adam Peterson

Adam Peterson — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 00:25:39 +0000

We’ve had a good discussion of the Twins hitting with RISP over on Twinkie Town, focusing on the extent that the high averages may regress to the mean in 2009.
http://www.twinkietown.com/2009/1/17/727016/arch-nemesis-in-2009-regre

One aspect of the better RISP hitting that cannot be ignored is that the Twins’ 3-4 hitters (Mauer and Morneau) have hit better with RISP in 7 of the last 8 years. Morneau 2005 was the only exception.

Sky has a good point, according to my numbers, Minnesota had the second best baserunning team in the majors, to Philadelphia. Also, the Twins’ situational hitting to “move the runners over” on a more consistent basis has a surprising effect. I’m finishing up my analysis, but my preliminary results show Minnesota a full 20 runs ahead of the second best team in the majors doing the “little things”, productive outs, bunting, etc. I’ll post a spreadsheet tonight or tomorrow, as soon as I finish writing up the methodology.

By: snepp

snepp — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 23:14:08 +0000

Didn’t you hear? The Twins are the only team in the league that “works on situational hitting” in batting practice.

By: Sky

Sky — Tue, 27 Jan 2009 21:53:11 +0000

While it’s about 10% as important as the RISP stuff, the Twins were excellent baserunners last year, on the order of a full win according to BPro.

Why they’re favorites in the Central is beyond me.