Comments on: Type B Starting Pitchers http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/type-b-starting-pitchers/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 17:38:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/type-b-starting-pitchers/#comment-58515 Eric Seidman Sat, 03 Jan 2009 02:22:55 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2070#comment-58515 Matt, I'm not going to get into an entire discussion about it here, but this is how we are currently projecting pitchers. Your suggestions will definitely be taken into consideration, though. Thanks for taking the time to write it all out. Matt, I’m not going to get into an entire discussion about it here, but this is how we are currently projecting pitchers. Your suggestions will definitely be taken into consideration, though. Thanks for taking the time to write it all out.

]]> By: MattS http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/type-b-starting-pitchers/#comment-58496 MattS Fri, 02 Jan 2009 22:22:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2070#comment-58496 Eric, I don't think you saw my last comment on the Phillies vs. Mets thing, but you are making the same mistake. You cannot use projected FIP to measure win value without accounting for park. FIP is based partly on HR/9 which is hugely sensitive to park effects. You use 5.50 as a standard FIP which is not reasonable for all parks. This is severely biased and any projections listed project HR based on the park the pitcher is expected to be in. I would suggest you use QERA if you do not use ERA itself, since not only is it only biased to park effects to the limited extent that BB% K% and GB% are, but it also captures the tails of the ERA distribution better, due to the interaction between BB, HR, and K's effect on runs scoring (e.g.. mathematically, d^2(ERA)/dBBdHR > 0 since base on balls become a larger problem for homerun prone pitchers and homeruns become more of a problem for pitchers who walk a lot of hitters etc.). If you truly want to isolate defense and pitching, you may need to develop a separate statistic using RC and league average numbers for LD BABIP, GB BABIP, FB BABIP, HR/FB, and anything else that you think is affected by park or defense. Eric,
I don’t think you saw my last comment on the Phillies vs. Mets thing, but you are making the same mistake. You cannot use projected FIP to measure win value without accounting for park. FIP is based partly on HR/9 which is hugely sensitive to park effects. You use 5.50 as a standard FIP which is not reasonable for all parks. This is severely biased and any projections listed project HR based on the park the pitcher is expected to be in.

I would suggest you use QERA if you do not use ERA itself, since not only is it only biased to park effects to the limited extent that BB% K% and GB% are, but it also captures the tails of the ERA distribution better, due to the interaction between BB, HR, and K’s effect on runs scoring (e.g.. mathematically, d^2(ERA)/dBBdHR > 0 since base on balls become a larger problem for homerun prone pitchers and homeruns become more of a problem for pitchers who walk a lot of hitters etc.).

If you truly want to isolate defense and pitching, you may need to develop a separate statistic using RC and league average numbers for LD BABIP, GB BABIP, FB BABIP, HR/FB, and anything else that you think is affected by park or defense.

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/type-b-starting-pitchers/#comment-58467 Eric Seidman Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:29:43 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2070#comment-58467 Nick, my understanding is that he is a Type B free agent. He wasn't offered arbitration, meaning that the Braves do not get any compensation if Smoltz signs elsewhere, but he is still considered a Type B due to his offseason classification. Type B free agents do not cause the signing teams to lose anything, but provide compensation to the former teams if they offered arbitration. Since Smoltz wasn't offered arbitration, the Braves don't get any compensation but he is still classified as a Type B, since he was in the Top 40 of his position last year. Nick, my understanding is that he is a Type B free agent. He wasn’t offered arbitration, meaning that the Braves do not get any compensation if Smoltz signs elsewhere, but he is still considered a Type B due to his offseason classification.

Type B free agents do not cause the signing teams to lose anything, but provide compensation to the former teams if they offered arbitration.

Since Smoltz wasn’t offered arbitration, the Braves don’t get any compensation but he is still classified as a Type B, since he was in the Top 40 of his position last year.

]]> By: Nick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/type-b-starting-pitchers/#comment-58463 Nick Fri, 02 Jan 2009 16:41:09 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2070#comment-58463 Smoltz wasn't offered arbitration so is thus not a type B free agent(no compensation to the braves) Smoltz wasn’t offered arbitration so is thus not a type B free agent(no compensation to the braves)

]]> By: phil http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/type-b-starting-pitchers/#comment-58457 phil Fri, 02 Jan 2009 14:47:54 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=2070#comment-58457 Main Entry: tan·ta·mount Pronunciation: \?tan-t?-?mau?nt\ Function: adjective : equivalent in value, significance, or effect <a> A common mistake, but I like this website so much I felt i should do a little sideline editing.</a> Main Entry:
tan·ta·mount
Pronunciation:
\?tan-t?-?mau?nt\
Function:
adjective

: equivalent in value, significance, or effect

A common mistake, but I like this website so much I felt i should do a little sideline editing.

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