Comments on: Uggla’s Value

By: Game Of Inches blog

Game Of Inches blog — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 08:31:42 +0000

It is absolutely pathetic how cheap the marlins are. They won’t even spend on good players. The MLB total payroll/revenue was 45.63% last season. For the Marlins, it was 26.50%. In 2008, it was an even less at 17%. The marlins can’t spin gold faster than Jeff Loria pockets the $$.

http://gameofinches.blogspot.com/2009/12/marlins-are-cheap-sobs.html

By: Taylor H

Taylor H — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:37:43 +0000

His defense is way too iffy for my liking. Hopefully he doesn’t end up a Mariner.

By: Kevin S.

Kevin S. — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 03:08:09 +0000

My point is they half-assed it over less than $3 million. A useful piece was traded for nothing in return.

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 23:03:33 +0000

Uggla will almost certainly perform up to his salary. He should be about 6-7 WAR for about 20-25 mil, which is good value, as long as you don’t give up too much in terms of prospects to get him.

By: JH

JH — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:24:48 +0000

How? Every factor that Dave mentioned was perfectly knowable (and known) last offseason.

Awful defense? UZR didn’t hate his defense in ’08, but his ’07 number was awful, and that gelled with what scouts had said about his glove. I’m going with check.

Uggla’s not a great bet to repeat a 5-win season? Well, he beat his previous career-best wOBA by 27 points, and his BABIP was 23 points above his career average to that point despite no noticeable change in his batted ball rates. Check

Going to be 30 in a year’s time? I’m gonna give the Marlins’ brass the benefit of the doubt and say they know that 29 + 1 = 30.

Going to cost more in a year? Players universally get raises in arbitration if they play anywhere near their established rate of performance. Check.

What exactly do we know about Dan Uggla now that we couldn’t have predicted in the winter of 2008?

By: Michael

Michael — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:06:11 +0000

David, I believe Montero is referring to his 2008 season. Also, I think Uggla hurt his ankle, not his shoulder, but that’s not really relevant now.

By: Logan

Logan — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 21:05:27 +0000

Kevin-

Last year Uggla was a 5 win player, Cody Ross a 4 win player, and Jorge Cantu a 3 win player. All of those guys dropped off this year, I think for a total one year loss of about 5 wins. I don’t have each in front of me as I write this, but I think that approximation is roughly accurate.

The Marlins won 87 games this year. Philly won 93, Colorado 92. If those guys gave the kind of production they gave last year, hell, if even if they regressed by a total of two wins, then Florida’s in the race until the final week of the season. Any way you slice it, that’s contention.

As it is, Florida contends about every sixth year (ask Cleveland or the Yankees). Do I believe in stupid patterns like a team will win every nth year? No. But for a team with very little spending capacity, when you have a shot, even an inkling of a shot, it’s worth taking.

By: DavidCEisen

DavidCEisen — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:57:32 +0000

In what way was Uggla’s first half better than his second half? Look at the second graph on this page: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=3442&position=2B&page=8&type=full

Or compare Uggla’s first half OPS (.769) to his second half OPS (.867).

By: Andy S.

Andy S. — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:57:26 +0000

This appears to be a case of hindsight being 20/20.

By: Toffer Peak

Toffer Peak — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 19:46:42 +0000

Also, while 2B and 3B may have the same defensive value, that does not mean that they have the same defensive requirements. 3Bs presumably require less range but better arms. If those are qualities that better match Uggla then it would make sense to move him there.