Comments on: Upton And The Long Ball http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 17:05:04 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Kenny Bania http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47132 Kenny Bania Wed, 15 Oct 2008 03:35:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47132 That's gold, Jerry! Gold! That’s gold, Jerry! Gold!

]]> By: Jerry http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47086 Jerry Tue, 14 Oct 2008 20:07:54 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47086 I heard he got a tip from an old coach and changed his mechanics... ;) I heard he got a tip from an old coach and changed his mechanics… ;)

]]> By: Jason http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47083 Jason Tue, 14 Oct 2008 19:39:01 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47083 He has a torn labrum. He's basically been swinging with one arm all season. Wait til next year now that he has developed his eye assuming the surgery/rehab goes well this offseason. He has a torn labrum. He’s basically been swinging with one arm all season. Wait til next year now that he has developed his eye assuming the surgery/rehab goes well this offseason.

]]> By: Bill B. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47057 Bill B. Tue, 14 Oct 2008 15:27:13 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47057 We can say that about Howard and Pierre because they've had enough plate appearances and have been consistent enough for us to ascertain that. Upton's HR/FB jumps all around so we really don't know where he'd be. That's why I was citing the average for Upton. "Players with true talent home run rates of 1 per 59 at-bats do not go on 5 HR in 31 AB hot streaks all the time." David Eckstein hit 3 dingers in a span of 34 at-bats, from July 30-August 7, 2005 (he OPS'ed 1.061). Close. :) Aside from that, I agree with you, I just don't think citing the small sample size is the way to go. I think the most we can say about his hot streak is simply that he's seeing the ball well. We can say that about Howard and Pierre because they’ve had enough plate appearances and have been consistent enough for us to ascertain that. Upton’s HR/FB jumps all around so we really don’t know where he’d be. That’s why I was citing the average for Upton.

“Players with true talent home run rates of 1 per 59 at-bats do not go on 5 HR in 31 AB hot streaks all the time.”

David Eckstein hit 3 dingers in a span of 34 at-bats, from July 30-August 7, 2005 (he OPS’ed 1.061).

Close. :)

Aside from that, I agree with you, I just don’t think citing the small sample size is the way to go. I think the most we can say about his hot streak is simply that he’s seeing the ball well.

]]> By: Bill Krevski http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47055 Bill Krevski Tue, 14 Oct 2008 15:21:05 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47055 Upton's shoulder bothered him for much of the season and now its starting to feel better. Mystery solved. Upton’s shoulder bothered him for much of the season and now its starting to feel better.

Mystery solved.

]]> By: Dave Cameron http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47051 Dave Cameron Tue, 14 Oct 2008 14:45:44 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47051 Players with true talent home run rates of 1 per 59 at-bats do not go on 5 HR in 31 AB hot streaks all the time. If you go through history of players that we could say had something like 1 per 60 AB true talent HR levels, you'd have to look very long and very hard to find stretches where any of those guys hit five long balls in 31 at-bats. And power isn't normally distributed around the mean - Ryan Howard will always post a way above average HR/FB and Juan Pierre will always post a way below average HR/FB, and we don't regress those guys back toward 12% and say any variation from that is a fluke. Upton's almost certainly more like his 2007 power ability than his 2008 power ability. Players with true talent home run rates of 1 per 59 at-bats do not go on 5 HR in 31 AB hot streaks all the time. If you go through history of players that we could say had something like 1 per 60 AB true talent HR levels, you’d have to look very long and very hard to find stretches where any of those guys hit five long balls in 31 at-bats.

And power isn’t normally distributed around the mean – Ryan Howard will always post a way above average HR/FB and Juan Pierre will always post a way below average HR/FB, and we don’t regress those guys back toward 12% and say any variation from that is a fluke.

Upton’s almost certainly more like his 2007 power ability than his 2008 power ability.

]]> By: Bill B. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47049 Bill B. Tue, 14 Oct 2008 14:33:16 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/upton-and-the-long-ball/#comment-47049 "Those five home runs tell us, with almost absolute certainty, that his 2008 regular season home run rate was not his real talent level." I don't disagree with your conclusion, but I'm not sure that the small sample size of six post-season games is enough to support the claim. Players go on hot and cold streaks all the time. Not to discredit Upton's great performance, of course. Isn't the average HR/FB somewhere around 12%? Obviously, 19.8% then would be too high and 7.4% too low. He's probably not as good a HR hitter as he showed last season but not as bad as he showed in the '08 regular season. “Those five home runs tell us, with almost absolute certainty, that his 2008 regular season home run rate was not his real talent level.”

I don’t disagree with your conclusion, but I’m not sure that the small sample size of six post-season games is enough to support the claim. Players go on hot and cold streaks all the time. Not to discredit Upton’s great performance, of course.

Isn’t the average HR/FB somewhere around 12%? Obviously, 19.8% then would be too high and 7.4% too low. He’s probably not as good a HR hitter as he showed last season but not as bad as he showed in the ’08 regular season.

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