Utley Returns at the Perfect Time
The Phillies entered the season relying heavily on the pitching staff after several seasons of scoring runs at will. Jayson Werth signed with the Nationals and Chase Utley was thought to be sidelined for an undetermined amount of time. The downgrade from Werth to some combination of Ben Francisco, Domonic Brown, and John Mayberry was substantial. Even more significant was the dropoff in performance from Utley to the three-headed monster of Wilson Valdez, Pete Orr, and Michael Martinez.
The outfield situation remains in flux, especially with the recent injury to Shane Victorino, but the second base situation is now solved as the Phillies welcome Utley back tonight.
The Phillies are averaging 3.83 runs per game, worse than all National League teams aside from the Pirates, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers. However, the pitching staff has been so effective that the Phillies have the best record in the league at 28-18.
The idea was always that, if the team could hold down the fort until a healthy Utley returned, his supplanting of the replacement level second base triumvirate early enough in the season would help cement their bid as a serious contender.
Though it has gotten to the point that a nifty fantasy strategy might involve adding whoever faces their lineup, the aforementioned sentiment remains true: replacing Valdez, Orr, and Martinez with Utley makes a big difference. Utley’s return invites two questions:
1) What can the Phillies expect from him over the rest of the season?
2) Is his return enough to stave off the Marlins and Braves?
Expectations of Utley
Last season, Utley hit .275/.387/.445 while battling numerous injuries, producing 5.2 WAR in 115 games. Even at that level of production, including relatively depleted power, he was still one of the best players in the game. A slash line like that looks downright Ruthian, Bondsian, or Bautistian relative to the current crop of crap the Phillies are trotting out at the keystone. As my brother pointed out on Twitter, the Phillies second basemen are hitting a collective .225/.269/.270. The Astros starting pitchers are hitting .226/.261/.262.
Small samples, sure, but that comparison aptly speaks to the ineptitude at the position through the first 46 games this season. In the aggregate, the Phillies second baseman are one of the worst hitters in baseball.
The fans projected Utley to hit .290/.395/.491 this season with 6.5 WAR in 136 games. If he played every day from here on out, he would only tally 116 games played, so the raw WAR total should be prorated down based on that and given that he won’t play everyday in the initial weeks of his return. Health permitting, 4.5-5 wins seems reasonable.
The rates are still applicable, and suggest that expectations call for his usual high on base percentage and a regression in the power department.
The ZiPS projection system was a bit less optimistic, calling for a .278/.381/.476. Whether he produces a .391 wOBA like the fans expect, or the .377 ZiPS expects, the Phillies are vastly improving their offense. I know, thanks Captain Obvious, but Utley could actually produce a .340-.345 wOBA and still make a big difference. The situation is dire.
If he produces somewhere in the 4.5 WAR range, the improvement is truly at least four and a half wins, because the players he is replacing are either at, or below, the replacement level. This isn’t a situation where the impact of his return is lessened by the fact that a solid player manned the position in his absence.
Is His Return Enough?
If he stays healthy, then his return, and the return of Shane Victorino from the disabled list, should be enough to get the offense back on track. However, it doesn’t guarantee a playoff berth, because of the elephant in the room: his health is in no way guaranteed. For all we know, Utley could return tonight, play well for three weeks, and suffer another injury to his knee. The Phillies medical staff has handled the situation tremendously, turning what could have been a completely lost season into a late-May return.
But their efforts, and the gameplan to play him two days on, one day off, might not be enough. Considering it took so long to even diagnose the ailment it stands to reason that the rest and rehabilitation exercises might not have been enough in the long-run.
The Phillies should not stand pat and assume that his return spells the end of a putrid stretch for the offense, but they also shouldn’t panic before seeing what their actual major league lineup looks like in a few weeks. A lineup of Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Victorino, Ibanez, Brown, and Ruiz is much more effective than Rollins, Valdez, Polanco, Howard, Francisco, Ibanez, Mayberry, and Ruiz.
It’s entirely possible that the former lineup could produce more respectable offensive results and give the pitching staff wiggle room. Getting Utley back, as an isolated transaction, might not be enough given the struggles of various other players. However, his activation coupled with Brown’s increased playing time and the eventual return of Victorino will go a long way towards moving the team out of the bottom third in runs per game.
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Phillies still need a consistent right-handed power presence in the lineup and it’s looking as though Francisco is not going to be it. Mayberry might. He should play daily through June, and if he is not the answer, Ruben will need to deal Blanton and a truck full of salary for a rest-of-season rental.
Brown is going to get the majority of RF playing time most likely in a platoon with Mayberry and Francisco. Until Victorino returns expect Mayberry to play a lot of CF. When Vic returns, he plays CF with the aforementioned platoon in RF. The ideal situation would probably involve platooning Mayberry and Ibanez, and Francisco and Brown, but it’s unclear if the Phillies want to carry that many outfielders in the majors. As for Blanton, unlikely. He is relatively costly and could be seriously injured right now.
Francisco’s BABIP is around .220, almost 70 points below his career average, despite the fact that he’s 29 and his GB/FB/LD rates are right where they always are.
He’s probably the third best outfielder the Phillies have, after Vic and Brown. Ibanez is cooked – even if he starts hitting again his fielding is absolutely terrible – and Mayberry is a mediocre career AAA guy with 75 ok PAs this season.
For the role that they will be asked to do (Platoon RF/LF against lefties), Mayberry is the superior choice over Francisco. He has about the same range but a much better arm than Big Ben and he has always mashed LHP better than Francisco.
Francisco doesn’t have much of a career split. His career wOBA is .332 versus RHP versus and .343 versus LHP. Maryberry has a big career split, but the difference is mainly due to a lower career wOBA versus RHP than a higher one versus LHP.
Actually, Mayberry’s career OPS vs. RH is .850 while vs LH it’s .675. Small sample size, but I would say the difference is not only significant due to the low LH result…a .850 is nothing to sneeze at, given the Phillies’ offensive ineptitude in the outfield, and the weakened general offensive environment. I’m not sure that the production is actually what you should expect, though. But I’d still rather have Mayberry out there against left handers than Ibanez…
“Even if he starts hitting again..”
He did start hitting again…back on May 3rd. Since then, he’s posted the following slash line in 18 games:
.344 AVG/.373 OBP/.951 OPS
Raul has been one of the few players actually hitting for them this month.
His defense truly is atrocious though. He makes Adam Dunn look like a competent LF.
You know, I always thought Raul’s defensive deficiencies were overrated and that he was a perfectly serviceable LF.
I’m a very foolish person.
“He makes Adam Dunn look like a competent LF.” If true, then Raul is truly God.
And just like last year(just a little earlier this time) the Braves start dropping like flies when the Phillies start getting healthier. Except this time they didn’t take advantage of the Phillies injury issues whatsoever. I mean, they do have a winning record against the Phillies in their 9 games, but the Braves are having trouble beating bad clubs, 100% because of the offense.
I can’t believe almost every regular is hitting below expectations, what the hell? Should I be encouraged by this, considering it would be hard to sustain, or should I see this as something that will continue?
The Braves now have an outfield of Martin Prado/Eric Hinske, Wilkin Ramirez, and Joe Mather……
Wow.
Hinske and Mather seem like they only guys that are actually producing for the Braves
True, but I seriously doubt they continue hitting all that well. And both are defensive liabilities, especially Hinske.
Actually, Prado, Mather, and Hinske pretty much are the only ones hitting. Freeman and Gonzalez have a nice AVG for the month, but without much power. I’m stunned at the lack of offense, even before Heyward went down.
“2) Is his return enough to stave off the Marlins and Braves?”
Uhm… even WITHOUT his return, the Phillies were staving off the Marlins and the Braves. And this is without two major pieces of their bullpen, plus injuries to 3 other position players beyond Utley (Polanco, Ruiz, and Victorino).
So… yah? I guess I am confused how this is even a question. The Phillies unquestionably have the best rotation in their division and with Utley they probably have the best hitting in their division too, even with Victorino out. I would have to say that the Phillies are still by far the favorite going forward.
I’ll give you the rotation, but even with Utley back I don’t see the Phillies having the best offense in the division.
Despite the Braves being near the bottom in OBP, as well as almost every regular hitting below expectations, they’ve scored the 5th most runs in the league. They’ve played 3 more games than the Phillies have, but right now the Phillies are 12th, Marlins 6th.
It’s a valid question, because it’s still May. The Braves are obviously under-performing offensively, have been the worst team in baseball on the bases, yet they’re just 3.5 out. Their SP has been great, and they’re more prepared for injuries to the staff than the Phillies currently are. The Braves are 13-8 in May so far, and that’s with dropping 3 of their last 4 games.
If you remember, the Phillies got off to a ridiculously hot start offensively. Polanco, Francisco, and Victorino were essentially Barry Bonds in the first month of the season. Since then, the Phillies have seen regression and it’s showing. Getting Utley back is obviously going to help, but don’t act as if that wasn’t a valid question because they’re in 1st place in late May despite injuries, because they’ve continually gotten worse on offense.
Also, and not that the Phillies don’t have a good farm, but if it comes to it the Braves could realistically trade for any player they want that’s on the market if they feel that player is an upgrade. They have some damn good trade chips without breaking the farm. That’s gotta be factored in as well….
For what it’s worth: There are 229 players in MLB who have received a minimum of 50 plate appearances so far in May (i.e., through the 22nd of May). #30 on that list, in terms of OPS, is (drum roll please):
Raul Ibanez
That’s the highest OPS in May of any Philly hitter. So maybe we shouldn’t write Ibanez off quite yet.
Nonetheless, I do agree that the best move seems to be to platoon Ibanez with Ben Francisco in LF and Domonic Brown with John Mayberry, Jr. in RF. However, that is only if the team does not trade for a big right-handed bat, presumably one belonging to an OF. Based on his 2010 slugging percentage, isn’t Delmon Young a pretty big upgrade over any of these guys? And isn’t Young probably pretty available right now? Another right-handed OF slugger who is eternally available is Alfonso Soriano… if the Cubs could be persuaded to absorb the majority of his remaining monies owed, isn’t Soriano an intriguing option for the Phillies? I am extremely skeptical that Philly can win the World Series with this offense, even if Chase Utley comes back fairly strong.
Let’s say the Cubs eat 60% of his remaining salary. And if they go that route, they’re gonna want more/better prospects obviously. Can the Phillies realistically afford the remainder and give up a top prospect or two? Blanton’s pretty much impossible to trade right now, so they likely won’t free up cash that way.
Plus, Soriano has contributed 0.7 WAR over his past two seasons. He’s probably not as bad as Ibanez in LF, but he’s pretty close. He’s not worth the price to be a slight upgrade.
Delwyn Young is much more realistic, but he’s chipped in 0.6 WAR total since his rookie year. His highest mark was last year at 1.8. Still, I imagine he can be pretty useful for the Phillies.
And Delmon’s career avg is right around .300 if you factor out his dismal, injury-plagued start to this season..also career .341 w RISP, and will be relatively cheap to play in the OF in 2012 in his last arbitration year. Phils can let him go to FA after that, as they will have OF prospects ready for a shot at the show after 2012..hope they look at Young, or guys like Quentin/BJ UPton, who are both in the same similar contract scenario as Young–1 more arb year then FA after 2012. Any of these would be an upgrade, with likely Upton costing the most prospects–and Upton’s team seems the most likely to be in competition in July and not willing to sell. I think ruben looks at Young or Quentin, and I hope we land one of these guys–last 2 seasons, got top Ace pitchers for 1.5 years, so Ruben is not new to looking beyond the ‘rental’ players–3 prospects for 1.5 years of Oswalt, I cant imagine it would take anything more than 2-B prospects to land Quentin/Young depending on their performance up to July–dont waste time on a half-year expensive rental–nobody on this year’s FA list seems like an IMPACT guy for a playoff push this year anyway..give the team some flexibility, get Young or Quentin for about 7.5-8mil arbitration next season, send 2 prospects, and lets get a Rhanded bat w some power/avg potential behind Howard..it ll happen