Dan,
Why would Walt let Arroyo or Harang walk without trying to trade them first? Doesn’t make much sense, so long as someone is willing to take on their contract. Therefore, I think Walt will most definetely have to trade one of the tow (or Cordero) before 2011. The only other feasible option, IMO, is to re-work either players contracts before 2011 at a much discounted cost. I don’t think that will happen.

I’ll disagree. The soonest you trade Votto is after 2010, IF Alonso is ready, and only in the right deal. A more realistic target would be a team that will need a 1st baseman (definitely not Texas). Maybe Tampa, who are always concerned with the budget and have Carlos Pena becoming a FA after 2010, for someone like Wade Davis or Hellickson plus at least one GOOD prospect. Or maybe the Mets. But those three (Linc, Wieters, & Andrus) probably won’t be dealt anytime soon.

“It goes without saying that at least a couple of the higher priced veterans (Arroyo, Harang, Phillips, Cordero) will need to be moved before then to make room for future arbitration raises and/or payroll flexability towards signing future pieces. Unfortunately, I think the only one with adequate value is the one I’m most hesitant in trading, Phillips. Fortunately, the Reds have numerous in-house options at second. If I was running things, I’d try to land a top-notch catching prospect ready to make the jump to the big leagues ASAP.”

I’d be careful to not make their finances sound worse than they are. Arroyo and Harang could both be gone after 2010 if the Reds chose to not pick up their options and it will be alot easier to deal Cordero when he has only one year left on his deal. The 2010 budget will be tight but afterwards they should be fine. I think that Phillips is the least likely to be moved unless Frazier shows that he really can be another Kent. But I bet a contender would have interest in Arroyo next June/July with his track record of doing better in the 2nd half. If they trade Arroyo mid-season and trade Cordero after 2010 for the best mix of talent/cost savings they can get and then don’t pick up the option for Harang they’ll have ALOT of payroll room to add the final touches for a 2011 contender.

However, if we limit our discussion to what the Reds need for 2011, then I think it’s obvious that the Reds need a clear number one starter, a respectable SS, and perhaps a top notch catcher. More importantly, they need their top prospects to pan out. Bruce, Bailey, Cueto, and Volquez need to live up to expectations, and the next core of prospects (Frazier, Stubbs, Cozart, Francisco, Wood) will likely need to be solid contributors if the Reds are to be competitive by 2011.

It goes without saying that at least a couple of the higher priced veterans (Arroyo, Harang, Phillips, Cordero) will need to be moved before then to make room for future arbitration raises and/or payroll flexability towards signing future pieces. Unfortunately, I think the only one with adequate value is the one I’m most hesitant in trading, Phillips. Fortunately, the Reds have numerous in-house options at second. If I was running things, I’d try to land a top-notch catching prospect ready to make the jump to the big leagues ASAP.