Comments on: Wagner And The 2010 Option http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 23:03:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: xo1 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93618 xo1 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 21:23:51 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93618 The Mets had already announced that they were not going to offer arbitration. That may well have been blunder, but once they've decided not to offer the arbitration, the salary relief alone makes this deal make sense. Boston, I believe, is one of the few organizations with the stones and resources to offer Wagner arbitration. If he pitches well this fall, it's the right move. In fact, judged exclusively on the possibility of picking up the two picks, it is a nice move for the Sox. Add in the potential for on-field benefits, and we have another example of how good Theo is at his job. The Mets had already announced that they were not going to offer arbitration. That may well have been blunder, but once they’ve decided not to offer the arbitration, the salary relief alone makes this deal make sense.

Boston, I believe, is one of the few organizations with the stones and resources to offer Wagner arbitration. If he pitches well this fall, it’s the right move. In fact, judged exclusively on the possibility of picking up the two picks, it is a nice move for the Sox. Add in the potential for on-field benefits, and we have another example of how good Theo is at his job.

]]> By: hailmatty http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93612 hailmatty Wed, 26 Aug 2009 20:17:10 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93612 No mention of the fact that Minaya gave away two high draft picks for two irrelevant players from Boston? Wagner is pretty much a lock to decline arbitration from any team that isn't going to guarantee him the chance to get to 400 saves, so Omar needed to press Boston for at least one high upside prospect, if not two, since either the Mets or Red Sox will net those picks courtesy of Wagner's type A status. Not sure why people aren't more attuned to yet another Minaya blunder. No mention of the fact that Minaya gave away two high draft picks for two irrelevant players from Boston? Wagner is pretty much a lock to decline arbitration from any team that isn’t going to guarantee him the chance to get to 400 saves, so Omar needed to press Boston for at least one high upside prospect, if not two, since either the Mets or Red Sox will net those picks courtesy of Wagner’s type A status. Not sure why people aren’t more attuned to yet another Minaya blunder.

]]> By: tom s. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93603 tom s. Wed, 26 Aug 2009 19:34:13 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93603 because as long as the parties agree, you can change a contract in pretty much any fashion. basically, he waived his NTC in exchange for assurances that Boston would do what he wanted. because as long as the parties agree, you can change a contract in pretty much any fashion.

basically, he waived his NTC in exchange for assurances that Boston would do what he wanted.

]]> By: Jon http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93550 Jon Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:44:14 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93550 Are you positive? I'm not sure, but Rosenthal wrote today: "Yet, as one general manager points out, accepting arbitration might be Wagner's best financial move — the Red Sox, adhering to the 20 percent maximum paycut rule, could offer him no less than $8.4 million." Are you positive? I’m not sure, but Rosenthal wrote today: “Yet, as one general manager points out, accepting arbitration might be Wagner’s best financial move — the Red Sox, adhering to the 20 percent maximum paycut rule, could offer him no less than $8.4 million.”

]]> By: Diaz http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93544 Diaz Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:35:02 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93544 I think Cameron is exagerating how few teams will be interested in Wagner. Not that I agree with this line of thought, but MLB GM have proven on many occassions to pay a premium for relievers who have a history of success as a a closer. Yes Juan Cruz had trouble finding a team last season, but he has never really closed teams and was signed as a set up man. Because of Wagner's history, all the saves, and rep he will fool some dumb GM to offer him a 2 yr deal to close even at the expense of draft picks. (unless Wagner craps the bed) Also for those of you wondering if Boston would risk having Wagner accept arb, the answer is a resounding yes. The value of a 1st round pick is around 3.5 million and a sandwich pick is probably slightly less. If Wagner accepts arb, the Sox will have 30 days to cancell the contract at 1/6 the cost. (Im guessing around 1.5 million). That is a gamble any front office would take. I think Cameron is exagerating how few teams will be interested in Wagner. Not that I agree with this line of thought, but MLB GM have proven on many occassions to pay a premium for relievers who have a history of success as a a closer. Yes Juan Cruz had trouble finding a team last season, but he has never really closed teams and was signed as a set up man. Because of Wagner’s history, all the saves, and rep he will fool some dumb GM to offer him a 2 yr deal to close even at the expense of draft picks. (unless Wagner craps the bed) Also for those of you wondering if Boston would risk having Wagner accept arb, the answer is a resounding yes. The value of a 1st round pick is around 3.5 million and a sandwich pick is probably slightly less. If Wagner accepts arb, the Sox will have 30 days to cancell the contract at 1/6 the cost. (Im guessing around 1.5 million). That is a gamble any front office would take.

]]> By: Nick Smith http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93540 Nick Smith Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:20:17 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93540 If Wagner demanded the Sox not pick up his option, why do they still have to pay a buyout? If Wagner demanded the Sox not pick up his option, why do they still have to pay a buyout?

]]> By: Rick http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93413 Rick Wed, 26 Aug 2009 02:38:40 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93413 Actually, the 20% rule is NOT applicable to free agent eligible players. So it isn't guaranteed that he will get around 8 mil. Actually, the 20% rule is NOT applicable to free agent eligible players. So it isn’t guaranteed that he will get around 8 mil.

]]> By: Jon http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93412 Jon Wed, 26 Aug 2009 02:24:27 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93412 Wait, you're saying that there's a chance the Sox offer him arbitration and get a $8-9M setup man? I think you can't lose more than 20% of your salary in arbitration, right? Not even the Yankees would have a $8M setup man. Wagner did this right: If he doesn't pitch well or thinks there won't be a great market for him, he can accept arbitration and get the same amount he would have gotten with the option. If he declines, it's because he thinks he'll do better. If the Sox don't risk offering it, there's no compensation and he gets more as a free agent, and can go where he wants. Seems like unless his arm falls off in September, the WORST case for him would have been the Sox exercising his option. Wait, you’re saying that there’s a chance the Sox offer him arbitration and get a $8-9M setup man? I think you can’t lose more than 20% of your salary in arbitration, right? Not even the Yankees would have a $8M setup man.

Wagner did this right: If he doesn’t pitch well or thinks there won’t be a great market for him, he can accept arbitration and get the same amount he would have gotten with the option. If he declines, it’s because he thinks he’ll do better. If the Sox don’t risk offering it, there’s no compensation and he gets more as a free agent, and can go where he wants.

Seems like unless his arm falls off in September, the WORST case for him would have been the Sox exercising his option.

]]> By: SchmidtXC http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93400 SchmidtXC Wed, 26 Aug 2009 00:34:54 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93400 The elias rankings for this year take 2008 into account as well. Wagner pitched until late August last year. The sample size with his stats is easily large enough that 1 bad outing will barely affect his rankings. There's no chance Boston will use him enough times to damage his type A status if he's pitching poorly enough to hurt it. The elias rankings for this year take 2008 into account as well. Wagner pitched until late August last year. The sample size with his stats is easily large enough that 1 bad outing will barely affect his rankings. There’s no chance Boston will use him enough times to damage his type A status if he’s pitching poorly enough to hurt it.

]]> By: NM http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wagner-and-the-2010-option/#comment-93399 NM Wed, 26 Aug 2009 00:30:56 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=8652#comment-93399 wagner at 1 year with small pay and maybe some incentives is better than giving a closer like valverde a multi year deal. wagner at 1 year with small pay and maybe some incentives is better than giving a closer like valverde a multi year deal.

]]>