Comments on: WAR’s Favorite Position

By: leila

leila — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 21:13:51 +0000

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By: Sam

Sam — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 11:29:08 +0000

Bryan,

Have you seen Jorge Posada play catcher? If they can take that defensive hit, Yankees can certainly take a defensive hit with Montero.

By: Sam

Sam — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 11:24:23 +0000

Player X has a much, much, higher K rate. That does not usually project all that well into major leagues.

By: ???????? ?????

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By: Efresh

Efresh — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 15:56:08 +0000

Nicely written article. But what’s up with A-rod messing around. He needs to get his thing straight and win another chamipionship.

By: Travis G.

Travis G. — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 21:02:03 +0000

Am I missing something, or does WAR not account for catcher UZR?

isn’t that a big problem with WAR in general? C might have the largest variation between the best and worst defenders and it doesn’t count toward UZR? they also get the most chances on the diamond (when counting for possible WPs/PBs).

also, would catching prevent Montero from playing as often as he could as a DH? probably, not only in total years but in games/year. is 17 years of 150+ games at DH (with quite possibly better hitting) worse than 12 years at 120 games/year as a C (with slightly less offense)?

By: Jeff

Jeff — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 23:51:09 +0000

Not considering park factors is antiquated.

By: tim randle

tim randle — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 23:17:22 +0000

what was JD’s UZR and WAR last year? aren’t we assuming he’s at least as good as Damon in both fielding and hitting? and yes, i use ‘good’ as loosely as can be expected…if he’s Johnny Damon at much much less expense with MUCH less of a dropoff risk, and can also be a backup or 3rd catcher, doesnt that still make him an awesome prospect??

PS: JD’s 09 UZR -9.2, WAR 3.1 salary 13.1M

By: AndrewYF

AndrewYF — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 23:09:31 +0000

Minor league caught stealing percentages are often completely useless, as almost no pitcher is concerned about holding runners. That’s typically the last thing a pitcher learns, and many learn about it in the major leagues.

If Montero can catch well enough to be a team’s backup catcher, and can DH the rest of the games, you have to factor in roster construction into the argument. No longer do you have to carry a (often) completely useless hitter on the roster simply because he can play catcher, leaving room for a more valuable player.

By: philly

philly — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 23:07:18 +0000

This really speaks to the importance of looking at a broad range of probabilities for every prospect. Just one number is narrow slice of reality and with loose enough assumptions you can make two very different things appear remarkably similar.

Let’s look at some hypothetical success probabilities for Montero and Romine at 5 different levels – 0 WAR/yr (complete bust) and on up to 4+ WAR/yr (low level star production). Montero and Romine might look something like this: (Montero, Romine)

0 WAR: 0%, 50%
1 WAR: 10%, 20%
2 WAR: 30%, 20%
3 WAR: 30%, 10%
4+ WAR: 30%, 0%

Again those are hypotheticals that serve my point, but I do think they’re pretty reasonable.

Bryan laid out the numbers for Montero and Romine to be 3 WAR/yr players. I agree that those futures are both possible. But for Romine that’s probably him playing to his 90% projection. For Montero that might be much closer to his 50% projection.

Sure there’s a point in both player’s career where their production lines cross, but the full range of possibilities for both players is dramatically different.

If the BP PECOTA cards weren’t completely broken, I’d say you could easily find an average player who has a 90% projection that is as good as a very good player’s 50% projection. I don’t think that tells us that we have to radically reconsider our valuation of the very good player. We just need to be aware of the full risk profile and not just any one point.