Weird Outing for Liriano
Leave it to Francisco Liriano to produce one of the oddest lines I’ve seen in a while from a starting pitcher. The Boston Red Sox paid visit to Liriano and the Twins yesterday, and brought their offense with them. Liriano lasted only four innings, allowing no walks, 11 hits, and striking out seven. Usually you see a large number of strikeouts and fewer hits or a large number of hits and fewer strikeouts, in combination it presents a bit of a paradox.
Only seven times (now eight) had a starting pitcher went four and struck out at least seven without issuing any walks. Mike Witt in 1987 allowed eight hits to the Oakland Athletics; Don Sutton in 1986 also allowed eight hits, this time against Seattle, oddly both were members of the California Angels during the feat. John Smoltz and Juan Mateo were the last two pitchers to do it, with Smoltz’ turn coming in 2007 and Mateo’s almost a year prior in 2006. J.R. Richard in 1973 and Josh Beckett in 2002 share a common opponent in the Los Angeles Dodgers and neither allowed more than three hits.
Back to Liriano, here are his hit descriptions:
- Dustin Pedroia singles to left on a fly ball.
- Mike Lowell singles to left on a line drive.
- Rocco Baldelli doubles to right on a fly ball.
- Jacoby Ellsbury singles on a ground ball to shortstop.
- Dustin Pedroia singles to left on a fly ball.
- Kevin Youkilis doubles on a sharp ground ball to left.
- Jason Bay doubles on a ground ball to left.
- Mike Lowell singles to left on a sharp ground ball.
- Jacoby Ellsbury singles on a line drive to center.
- Dustin Pedroia singles on a ground ball to left.
- Kevin Youkilis doubles to left on a line drive.
Without seeing the game, it seems to me like Liriano had a few bloopers fall in, a slow roller to short, and a few down the line. I guess this was one of those games were everything that could go for a hit did, whether it was hit hardly or not. The BABIP gods are fickle, and apparently flexed their wrath all over Liriano yesterday.
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No real statistical basis, but I think a better 3B would have made a few outs on all those balls to left. Buscher seemed pretty ineffective yesterday.
It seemed familiar to me, like several of Jon Lester’s and Josh Beckett’s starts this season. Starts by striking out almost everyone, but, once the hits start coming, they don’t stop.
Red Sox BABIP against Liriano yesterday was ,733. That must be some kind of record for four innings.
What makes that BABIP even more crazy is the negative FIP posted over those 4 innings. I wonder how often a .500+ BABIP and negative FIP happen in a GS, or perhaps a 10+ ERA and a negative FIP.
FIP gets weird when the numerator is negative. Recalibrating his line based on expected innings pitched actually raises his FIP to about 0.80.
It’s a catch-22. The negative FIP is what makes the .733 BABIP so impressive but it’s the .733 BABIP that makes the FIP negative. It’s like having a rare strain of AIDS that gives you superpowers and everyone’s like “wow, it’s amazing he can do all that with AIDS” but really it’s the AIDS that gave you those powers in the first place.
agree with jtr,
these hits (that cost Liriano 3 runs)
- Dustin Pedroia singles to left on a fly ball.
- Kevin Youkilis doubles on a sharp ground ball to left.
- Jason Bay doubles on a ground ball to left.
would have been outs with an average third baseman there and the first should have been an error (Buscher trying to tackle the ball with his body instead of catching it) and the other two hits was hard hit balls but within 2 feet of Buscher (who has zero leg work: he does not move his legs towards the ball, but stays there waiting for the ball and if the ball does not hit him, he dives unsuccessfully.) Take that inning away and that was a decent outing by Liriano.
The Youkilis double wasn’t the fault of the third baseman. It looked like it hit the lip between the turf and the dirt and bounced in a very strange way. Also, Youkilis just crushed it, so when it bounced strangely there was minimal time to react to it.
As for the other two hits, I don’t specifically recall Pedroia’s (though he was hitting line drives all night), but Bay’s was a shot down the line that may have been due to faulty positioning more than anything else.
It was a shot down the line… But Buscher dove on top of the ball. The ball ended up going under his arm, not under his glove. Plus you have to take into account that he wouldn’t be replaced by a league average first basemen, he would be replaced by one of the best in the game. It’s impossible to say if Crede would have gotten these balls or not, but it seems pretty likely.
Also, I don’t think anyone is arguing that the Red Sox didn’t hit the ball hard. Most of the hits were hit hard. The thing is that even if you hit every ball on the barrel, going 11 for 14 on BIP is ridiculous. I don’t know what you can really expect when you have two horrible defenders in Delmon and Buscher on the left side against the most pull-happy right handed team in the league. A couple of fluke injuries probably cost the Twins a win.
Quick observation…
His slider was very good, but reserved for 2 strike counts. His fastball was very mediocre, the velocity wasn’t anything special and the command was pretty poor.
They generally hit the ball hard, and Buscher certainly didn’t do him any favors.
Crazy, and I spent a large amount of time the night before trying to analyze his starts to get a feel where he is at Post TJ surgery. Now this…
I watched the entire game, and the hits were definitely not bloops. The Sox hitters were absolutely killing the ball. Liriano was throwing 88 over the middle of the plate, and the Sox repeatedly ripped the ball down the left-field line. Buscher could have made a few plays, but all of the balls were hit hard.