Welcome Back, Andruw
Andruw Jones went 0 for 4 last night. This year, that’s newsworthy, which is a pretty remarkable occurrence given how bad Jones was last year. That 0 for 4 lowered his 2009 line to .370/.514/.778. This is a guy who had a .505 OPS last year. His OBP is currently higher than that.
Yes, it’s only 35 plate appearances, but it’s 35 amazingly good plate appearances. Jones has walked more times than he’s truck out, posting a 7/6 BB/K rate. He has seven extra base hits in nine games. Last year, he had 12 extra base hits in 75 games.
Jones was a walking disaster, out of shape and unable to play at a major league level. The Dodgers paid him to go away. For the most part, baseball gave up on him. Andruw’s out to prove them all wrong, and he’s off to an amazing start.
Even with the small sample, the 2008 version of Andruw Jones was simply not capable of this kind of performance. He didn’t have enough life in his bat to get around on fastballs, and the result was an enormous jump in his strikeout rate and groundball rate. Through the first few weeks of 2009, both of those are back towards his career norms, making 2008 look like a massive outlier.
He’s making contact again, but more importantly, he’s hitting the ball hard. The Dodgers have to be wondering where this was a year ago, because right now, Jones looks as good as he ever has. We talked about the potential for him to pull a Jermaine Dye and rebound in a big way… that looks more likely every day.
Talent doesn’t just evaporate. Jones earned his way to the majors at 19 because he was a remarkably gifted individual. Those abilities are still in there. Kudos to the Texas Rangers for giving him an opportunity to find them again.
17
Just what they needed, more offense. Maybe one day somebody in that organization will get a clue and learn that you need more than one good pitcher to actually have a chance at winning anything worthwhile.
Man, if only they had some good young pitchers coming up through a loaded farm system. Can you imagine what it would look like if they did have a clue? Maybe then they’d have guys like Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Michael Main, Martin Perez, Neil Ramirez, Wilfredo Boscan, and Kasey Kiker.
Oh, wait…
Damn, more offense. Ugh. It’s a shame that if he’d hot at the ASB that they can’t, say, trade him for pitchi-
ohhhhhhhhhh wait.
Considering the Rangers recent track record of developing pitchers and/or trading away guys like Danks and Volquez, you’ll have to forgive me for not believing any of those guys will have an impact in Arlington until they actually do so.
Rephrased to put into last year’s context:
“Considering Tampa’s never had a winning season before, you’ll have to forgive me while I laugh at your projections that have them as contenders for the AL East.”
If you believe the world will just continue as it always has, you’ll never notice progress. And if you can’t notice progress, no one should care what you think.
There’s quite a sizable difference between major league ready pitching that was in Tampa last year and how far away a lot of Texas pitching depth is. You’re looking at Sonnanstine, Kazmir, Shields, Jackson vs. perhaps Holland and MAYBE Feliz by the time the year is over. Not close to the same scenario at all, and Tampa had new management filled with quite a few forward thinkers. The same Texas management that is currently there has shown a lack of ability to assess pitching and keep it when they should, or develop it when they do. Why should we believe that they have it all figured out now because some pitchers are dominating the lower minors again?
There’s no comparison. If you can’t take other opinions and react to them better than an high school newspaper student, no one will take what you think with more than a grain of salt. There’s certainly a pattern in your articles and your reaction when others disagree with you.
I wasn’t comparing Texas’ situation to Tampa. . I was showing you why your line of thinking is going to lead to bad conclusions.
I could care less whether you agree with me or not. I’m trying to help you improve your logical process. If you want to keep making bad assumptions, that’s your deal.
You were trying to explain why Tampa’s success last year shouldn’t keep people from believing Texas can develop pitching, when the current management has never done so. Tampa’s management that took over from the prior unsuccessful regime had developed and traded for good MLB quality starting pitching prior to last year, and saw that further bloom into the great bullpen and rotation that they enjoyed in 2008. Texas has basically squandered every single young starting pitcher they’ve had in recent memory as well as quite a few decent veterans. They are not similar.
Perhaps the Rangers will one day have a fine homegrown rotation, but saying that someone is wrong for having quite a bit of doubt because of the repeated track record in Texas currently is ridiculous.
Also this “help” from a guy who has been refuted many times on this very website and chooses to refuse to admit any opinion besides his own, yes I find that quite ironic. I’m not the one who needs to work on logic.
Okay, enjoy your ignorance.
Yes, I’m sure all seven of those pitching prospects will all work out and all be at the MLB level very soon.
Main is struggling in A ball. Perez is in A ball. Where is Ramirez, in extended ST..headed to A ball? Boscan, A ball. Kiker is in AA.
So, basically, they have three prospects who could reasonably make an impact in the next couple seasons, one of whom is in their bullpen, one of whom is struggling mightily in AAA, and the other in AA. Forgive me for not getting overjoyed at the prospects of their pitching staff for the next couple seasons. They’ve had plenty of opportunities to build a respectable pitching staff, but they continuously botch it and trade away the players, like trading away Volquez for Hamilton..yeah, Hamilton is great, but that’s the last thing they needed.
Dave that was pathetic. Garrett rationally and logically explained his position and you come back with “Okay, enjoy your ignorance?” If anyone is being ignorant here, it is you.
Past track records of management and player development matter. You can’t just hand wave that away with some irrelevant analogy to the 2008 Rays.
Anyway, I’m noticing a lot of articles on this site where you are making conclusions about players or teams based on just 1-3 weeks…. It would be wise if you tempered you conclusions some.
LOL @ Andruw Jones being “back” after 27 ABs and 35 PAs.
That’s kind of my reaction too…I mean, I guess it depends on what you mean by “back.” I’d say Jones has made a convincing case that he’s not really AS awful as he was in 2008…but even the Dodgers had to know *that*, didn’t they?
I mean, look what Andruw did in the midst (July 7-19) of his terrible .314 wOBA 2007 season:
.385/.429/.821, 1 3B, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB
Anybody (maybe not the 2008 Andruw, but anybody ELSE) can have a good week or so.
So, he’s probably not the worst-hitting position player in the Majors as per ’08. But it’s just a little early to get this excited about him, I think. I’m pulling for him, though…
Dave isn’t strictly talking about his numbers so far, but things like bat speed and pitch recognition. I understand sabrmetrics is to look at things on a macro level (mostly) and to have as much sample size as possible, but sometimes to evaluate a player as unique as Andruw we need to go micro. If his bat speed has increased over last season, and his pitch recognition is up and the ball is leaving his bat faster, those could be big signs that he’s healthy/in shape/not a fat piece of s*** this season.
The things he makes reference to that seem to evince improved bat speed and so forth–line drive percentage and strikeout percentage, most notably–are things that can change dramatically with one really bad (or really good) night tonight or tomorrow. If “going micro” means putting serious stock in anything that happens (whether observed on the field or in the numbers) over 35 plate appearances, then no, I don’t think we ever need to “go micro.” I’m betting that he was looking good and hitting the ball really hard when he hit 5 HR in 10 games in 2007, too–that didn’t change the fact that it was only 10 games.
Nothing against Dave here, one of my very favorite writers–this just seems like a *really* extreme reaction to a *really* tiny sample that can’t possibly justify that kind of confidence.
And I saw Andruw on TV the other day…still looks to me like a specimen who could’ve swallowed the old Andruw whole.
As a Giants fan, Andruw Jones screwing over the Dodgers like he has warms my heart…
As a Dodger fan, this makes me sick. Then again, we ended up with better players at every outfield position because of it.
post-steroid-disorder
seems to be going around. papi? yes i think so, he looks like a shell of himself, forget the bat speed.
David Ortiz is an aging, overweight DH who is basically a one dimensional player. You really think steroids is the reason that his statistics are slipping? This stuff has been happening throughout baseball history like clockwork. Players like Ortiz rarely maintain numbers late into their careers.
yeah but, look at him this year compared to even the beginning of last year. physically, he is like a miniature version of himself. he clearly stopped taking something. i don’t know what but, he’s tiny.
That’s clear, Tom? Like you could take it to court? I wonder why MLB’s draconian drug policies haven’t caught him, then.
Could you enlighten me?
Most importantly, the Rangers are 5-2 when Jones starts. 4-8 when he doesn’t.
Yes, he’ll be back to hitting .211 in no time.
Obviously he has made an adjustment that the Dodger’s or summerball couldn’t help with, as soon as pitchers start making the corresponding adjustment, he should go back to the numbers year before the Dodgers numbers. Last year may be an anomolie, but not that much of an anomolie. There is just too many ways to get this guy out for pitchers not to start exploiting it. I have a feeling the only thing American league pitchers new about him is that he sucked and was washed up and were pitching accordingly.
He was an above average hitter in every year from 1998 through 2006. Apparently National League pitchers weren’t aware of the numerous “ways to get (him) out” you speak of. Obviously, his performance took a marked step back in 2007 and fell off a cliff last year. But he’s not old enough to chalk this up to normal aging patterns. Since age doesn’t work as an explanatory factor, you have to look elsewhere, and injuries combined with poor conditioning seems to be a pretty good place to start.
If he’s healthy and in good shape this year, it seems only plausible that he would be a productive hitter again. Like Dave said, it’s not like those skills just go away at this age. I’m anxious to see whether or not he can regain some of his best-center-fielder-in-baseball defensive mojo.
You are truely out of your mind. Good luck with that.
I’m not sure “Dodger Dude” is the one to have a rational and civil discussion with about this particular topic…
Bill:
He may be right that I’m out of my mind, but I don’t think my comment was anywhere near the best evidence of that.
Ha…absolutely not.
You’re completely right, it’s absolutely possible that he’ll be good again. My quarrel has been with PRONOUNCING him good after 35 PA…
Dave’s point was that Jones is actually getting around on pitches, has shown power and plate discipline. Three things that he wasn’t able to do last year.
Actually, they were away of the “numerous ways to get him out” – he’s just under his park-adjusted league-average OBP (according to B-R) for the course of his career. Obviously, he did a lot of damage when they didn’t get him out, but he wasn’t particularly good at not making outs.
aware, not away
Truck Out sounds like a Toby Keith song
Also love Dave flipping out everytime somebody posts something that goes against his post.
Also, you make fun of people for not “recognizing progress,” yet you keep on calling the Royals one of the worst teams in baseball despite the obviously progress the ENTIRE organization has made since DM got here…yet all you write about DM is that he “has tarnished his reputation as a GM” for some reason. Yeah, all he’s done is improve the organization in just about every single way possible…yet for some reason he’s awful?? Yet at the same time….anyone who doesn’t think Texas is building a good pitching staff is ignorant just because they have some prospects in A-ball.
Mike Jacobs, Kyle Farnsworth, Horacio Ramirez, Willie Bloomquist, Sidney Ponson. Shall I keep going?
The Royals have two star-level prospects: Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. The Rangers, on the other hand, have somewhere between 5 and 10. Nobody is saying that all of them will pan out, but Texas has stockpiled enough talent that some of it is bound to produce at a high level in the majors.
And as to your claim that the Rangers only have “some prospects in A-Ball,” uhhh, Derek Holland is already up. Neftali Feliz and Justin Smoak will probably be in Arlington by the end of the year. Julio Borbon has a pretty even chance of making the club next year.
If you’d like to place money on the two organizations’ chances going forward, I will GLADLY take Texas. And I’m a Mariners fan.
Nobody said the Royals are equal to the Rangers. I said the Royals have been getting better too. HoRam is already out of the rotation and Ponson will be too when Hochevar (currently dominating AAA) is called up. Jacobs is doing fine as a DH, and Bloomquist is fine as a utility player. Farnsworth sucks.
I also notice you didn’t bring up how we traded two months on an injured reliever for Kyle Davies, or how we traded away a non-prospect pitcher for our starting 2B Callaspo, who currently has an OBP north of .400, or various other moves.
Just throwint out a few names means nothing. Please explain how the Royals have NOT gotten better since DM has taken over. They have improve their win total every single season and even this very site has their farm system as #9 (I believe) in baseball. Please explain what DM is doing wrong? He has not been perfect, but every single aspect of the organization has gotten better. Please show me otherwise. Us signing Sidney Ponson to a minor league contract or a couple other bad deals doesn’t take away from all that.
Also, the “only some prospects in A-ball” was about their pitching prospects….they have what, two good pitchers at the MLB level? They have a long long way to go before playing games of meaning. That goes for the Royals too. Point is, BOTH teams are slowly getting better…but around here, you’re ignorant if you don’t think the Rangers are getting better, but ignorant if you think the Royals are getting better…and that’s clearly ignorant in and of itself.
Still waiting to hear an actual way that our organization is NOT improving.
A single way that the organization is not improving?! Really? You haven’t heard one yet?
How about throwing away money on Mike Jacobs when Kila Ka’aihue could probably be just as productive with better defense? How about using Jimmy Gobble in a role he wasn’t suited for, over and over again (this could be Trey Hillman’s fault, but DM shouldn’t have let it happen)? How about signing Kyle Farnsworth and paying him like a star reliever?
Could you stop polluting every thread with your ridiculous Royals opinions? They have Royals message boards for these kinds of posts.
Dave, your immature responses are eye raising and probably concerning to your employers. Two valid points, those of small sample size and a questionable Rangers history with regards to pitching, are summarily dismissed by you and even given the added patronizing admonition that you were just trying to “help improve (the other person’s) logical process”.
That’s not up to the standard of Fanball.com writing that I’ve become accustomed to.
I, like most of the readers who are commenting here, am definitely an Andruw skeptic. You see progress and I see small sample size. You say he’s in shape and I have yet to see a correlation between weight and hitting performance (although one would assume that being in some sort of shape that’s not perfectly circular would benefit a hitter).
I’d like to see some pitchFx stuff on Andruw. I’m guessing that he’s just recognizing pitches a little better right now and staying away from those sliders in the dirt that he couldn’t resist in 2008.
I’m sure that Dave’s employers at fanball.com will appreciate hearing of your concern.
Well, I figure threads that consist of the author calling people who don’t agree with him ignorant on a consistent basis are just begging to be pulled off topic anyways. I mean, somebody questioning an ultra-successful organization such as the Rangers is CLEARLY grounds for that person to be mocked, given their obvious rich history of developing pitching.
Bottom line, the Rangers are hopeless until they build a decent pitching staff..and right now they have Millwood, Fransisco in the pen, and a few prospects at AA and above..and they have a history of giving those guys away for more offense..a very recent history of doing so. Thus, I have no reason to believe that’ll change.
Also, what is ridiculous about my Royals opinions. I think they’ll win 79 games and I think they’ve gotten better in international spending, drafting (outspent everyone last year, or something like that), minor league talent, and major league talent, especially pitching. What about that is “ridiculous?”
Respond to whatever you want..or call me ignorant since that seems the preferred sabermetric method.
It’s ridiculous that you won’t acknowledge Dayton Moore’s shortcomings. He has made some very, very questionable moves that you haven’t even bothered defending.
And you’re acting like the Rangers will just compulsively flip their pitching depth for offense, because they’ve done that before. It doesn’t matter that that wouldn’t make any sense, or that they’ve made a deliberate and well-documented effort since ’07 to stockpile arms; they’ll just trade their pitchers off because that’s what the Rangers do.
Have you noticed that just about everyone with an informed opinion about these things rates the Rangers system as the best or second best in baseball? Or that it’s pretty widely accepted that Texas has the West locked down for the foreseeable future starting next year or the year after? You think the people making these conclusions don’t know the same things you do?
Furthermore, I simply don’t buy that an organization which can QUITE EVIDENTLY develop pitchers capable of dominating in the high minors is just not able to transition these same players into the majors. Volquez and Danks probably shouldn’t have been traded, but it’s not exactly like they’ve set the world on fire. One good season from each player and you’re ready to write off an entire organization? After how poorly they performed in previous years?
I have said over and over that DM isn’t perfect. Name me the GM that has never made any bad moves? He gave too much money to Farnsworth, HoRam and Bloomquist. Duh. That doens’t mean that the entire organization isn’t improving, does it??
The organization has gotten better in every way and that’s an undeniable fact, given that nobody has done so yet. That doesn’t mean every move is perfect or that DM is a “great” GM. All I have said is that they are getting better and I predicted 79 wins this year. I see nothing rediculous about any of that.
Yes, the Rangers do have a great farm system. Who said they didn’t? I said they need a TON of help with their MLB pitching staff and the majority of their pitching prospects are in A ball. Holland and Feliz aren’t going to be NEAR enough to turn around that atrocity of a pitching staff they have right now. That’s all I’ve said…of course their farm system is great, who said otherwise??
I “act like they’ll flip their pitching for offense” because they have done so as recently as the offseason before 2008 and showed no effort to make any moves to improve their MLB staff this offseason despite it being an obvious need.
The Rangers have the West locked down for the forseeable future? That’s laughable. Having a good farm system doesn’t guarantee anything. I hope they do get some of that pitching to develop in the majors, but acting like it’s a lock to happen and that they’ll be dominant for the next five years is a ridiculous notion.
I haven’t said for a second that the Royals aren’t getting better. They certainly are, but organizations aren’t just supposed to get better; they’re supposed to get better faster than everyone else. I think Cleveland will have the edge over K.C. for years to come, and you have yet to give me any reason to think otherwise.
If I were you, I wouldn’t so quick to shrug off my G.M.’s squandering of a limited payroll on replacement level players. The Royals operate with very little room for error. Aren’t you concerned that he’s shown himself to lack the analytical ability needed to correctly value major league talent? I sure would be.
Now we can talk about the Rangers. Since you keep alluding to the Volquez-Hamilton trade, let me point out some things. First of all, Volquez has done nothing to put to rest the biggest knock against him: his terrible command. He pitched great for a period of time last year, because he was keeping his walks down somewhat and striking batters out at an insane rate. His final walk rate was 4.27/9, though. He can’t be an ace if he keeps doing that.
On top of that, position players get injured less frequently and have the potential to help their teams more than pitchers (take a look at the WAR leader boards over the past few years to see what I’m talking about). Josh Hamilton is a star already with potential to be even better. Yes, that’s no sure thing. But neither is Volquez even repeating what he did last year.
Perhaps most importantly, the trade didn’t even put a dent in the Rangers’ long-term plans. It was a simple case of two teams swapping upsides.
What you fail to see about Texas’ pitching depth is that they don’t have to wait for Font and Main and Kiker and the others to develop. They can turn those guys into major league-ready pitching help as soon as they decide they’re on the verge of contention. And pitching isn’t even the only surplus they have. They’ve got three young catchers who would probably be playing every day for another team. Chris Davis, Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, Brandon Boggs, and Hank Blalock are all possible trading chips. This is why people see them as the team to beat starting very soon. To call the notion “ridiculous” or “laughable” is to express willful ignorance on the subject.
I’m actually pretty high on the Rangers’ farm system and agree with Dave that they’ve finally figured it out and stacked it with live arms. Holland and Feliz are premium talents, but as most of us know TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect). Hopefully for the Rangers’ sakes their particular roll of the dice with their young pitchers works out. The odds are generally against any pitching prospect succeeding for any amount of time but obviously some do.
Since the team has never (!) in its history been to a World Series or even a League Championship Series, one would hope that they’re really committed to exploring a new strategy. That strategy should definitely include stockpiling the farm system, focusing on young arms, and avoiding massive albatross contracts.
I’m not sure whether Jon Daniels is the right GM to achieve success, but at least he’s brought in a bevy of solid prospects on both sides of the ball. The Rangers’ system is a very good one right now — beyond just Holland and Feliz, they also have Max Ramirez, Justin Smoak, Engel Beltre, Julio Borbon, Main, Martin Perez, etc. Things are looking up, but I have to agree with KingKirpatrick when he expresses doubt as to whether the Rangers will actually hold on to what they have.
You are right, there will be no rationale or civil conversations about FAJ from the Dodger Dude after watching the guy for his 1/2 season performance. It wouldn’t be off base to question my sanity either.
Let me just say that his 2008 performance thoroughly convinced me that he wasn’t faking his awfulness, and that I fully believe he really does suck, and it is terminal, but who knows maybe he’s the next Manny Rameriz.
Why does every post have to include someone arguing with Dave?
Because Dave’s like me and actually thinks that people leaving wrongheaded comments are worth arguing with.
I think I’ve actually gotten into a comment-section argument with Dave before. It was irritating at the time, but I’ve since come to think it’s kind of refreshing for him to engage with his readers that way.
Cleveland may have the edge over K.C. I haven’t proclaimed them to be a lock to dominate the division for the next five years like you have the Rangers. Too bad you think I’m some homer who thinks KC does everything right and will win the WS soon.
The Royals payroll has gone up every year and will continue to do so with their new renovated stadium. I expect it to be in the 90-100m range in 2-4 years. Yes, he has made some bad deals, but are those the ONLY major league deals he has made?? Judging his entire evaluation ability on overpaying a few times is silly. Sounds like the EXACT same things said when he signed Gil Meche..yet, funny thing, nobody really wants to talk about that anymore? Wonder why? Besides, what DM does with our farm system is far more important than a couple bad contracts, and by every report imaginable, our farm system has good pitching depth and some nice bats…enough so to be in the top 10 on this site and others. No, he’s not perfect, but to act like he’s a turd, which many do, is ridiculous.
No, Edison Volquez probably won’t be an ace, who said he would? However, don’t you think they could’ve used him a little bit more than they could another good hitter??? Edison Volquez, even with his flaws, is significantly better than any of their starting pitchers over the next few seasons. Yes, Hamilton is better value to a team, but they didn’t need him..they sorely need Volquez and about eight other pitchers. Dumb trade.
Yeah, they can trade those young minor league arms into starting pitchers when they are on the verge of contending…..but they aren’t going to be on the verge of contending until some of those young arms start provding solid MLB innings. So…………
The Rangers being good soon isn’t laughable. The Rangers being a lock to win the division for the next five years, that’s laughable. In case you haven’t heard, every young prospect doesn’t work out……and most of your arguments you use about the Rangers can just as easily be applied to the Royals…but if I made them, you’d probably just call it dumb because we signed Willie Bloomquist to our team.
You should probably cool it on the hyperbole. I never said you think Kansas City is a soon-to-be World Series contender. I never said it, because you didn’t make any such assertion. I can only respond to what you actually write, not straw men.
Most of the major league deals Moore has made have been bad. I’m not cherry-picking here either. He has a consistent track record of overpaying for fringe major leaguers (Jose Guillen being the most egregious example). Picking one instance where a previously mediocre player took a giant step forward does not erase the other missteps. His continuing failure in this regard doesn’t augur well for the health of the Royals organization, no matter how great the other stuff he’s doing is. And who knows how long it’ll be before that stuff begins to produce dividends anyway.
Back to the other thing…
Texas absolutely could have used the version of Volquez that showed up last year, but neither they nor anybody else could have predicted that he would pitch that way. It could be that the A.L. would have eaten him alive. You see, it doesn’t make sense to evaluate a decision based only on results. The right decision isn’t necessarily the one that turns out best. I don’t think the trade was great, and I don’t think it was terrible. The Reds thought more highly of Volquez than the Rangers did, and the Rangers thought more highly of Hamilton than the Reds did. Both were gambles. Both have paid off pretty well.
Once Holland and Feliz join the rotation (assuming they both stay healthy and productive), Texas will be a free-agent signing or two and a trade or two away from being very scary. Even if BOTH of those two pitchers don’t pan out, they still have enough talent to flip for help. Their contingency plans are better than the Plan As for the other teams in the West. Obviously (does this even need to be said?), I can’t guarantee that they will dominate the division for years to come. (I don’t know where you got this five years thing. I certainly didn’t say it.) I can say that they look to have a significantly better chance of dominating than do any of the other teams in the A.L. West. The smart money is on Texas making the playoffs regularly starting in a couple of years. Is that clear?
And, no, the Royals don’t have anywhere near the collection of talent that the Rangers do. I think Kansas City is on its way to being a contender, but its path there looks to be significantly rockier than Texas’. You’re exactly right that not every prospect works out, which is why having a million of them like the Rangers do is such a great strategy.
What about Greinke, or Meche, or Davies, or Callaspo. All four or them are far more significant pieces to our “future” than most of the guys you have named.
If he has done such a bad job at the major league level, then please explain why we have gone from 56 wins, to 62, wins, to 69 wins, to 75 wins under his tenure, with more improvement likely this year? Please explain how that happened if he can’t evaluate Major League talent?
How did the Hamilton gamble pay off well? They had a great offense and terrible pitching. Trading away a potential good pitcher for a good hitter doesn’t make any sense. This isn’t a computer game.
No, the Royals don’t have the talent the Rangers do, but they have enough to be in fangraphs top 10, as well as similarly high rankings in other rankings…and if the Rangers can trade their prospects for pieces they need to contend..so can the Royals..and given that the Royals already have a solid pitching staff and elite closer….they need a bat or two really bad…who is to say they can’t trade some of their numerous arms for an impact bat?
Bottom line, the Royals are stockpiling talent just like the Rangers are, they are just a year or two behind. The Royals have some bad position players and have made a few financially inefficient moves, so they get labeled as one of the worst organizations in the game and their GM is a turd. The Rangers, however, have had a AAA pitching staff for forever, yet because they have good hitters and a good farm system……I don’t see the difference. Both teams have made a lot of bad decisions in the past..yet the Rangers are locks for the future…and the Royals are the worst organization ever (not meaning you are saying it) despite following a similar plan as the Rangers..stockpiling talent.
Of all the ‘bad deals’ DM has made, none of them have hurt anything except for Guillen. We were the highest bidders on both Hiroki Kuroda and Orlando Hudson and Torii Hunter (until the last minute), all of that after signing Guillen…..so it’s not like DM has no money to work with either.
You’re seriously confusing correlation with causality here. The team has gotten better during Dayton’s tenure, true. But it was going to get better anyway. Brian Sabean couldn’t have screwed that up. I think that Moore may very well be a decent GM. He has done relatively poorly in the most public facet of his job, though. You can’t give him credit for Greinke, and of the other three players you mentioned, only Meche has produced enough to put doubts to rest.
The Rangers trading Volquez was an expression of their belief that he wasn’t going to be a good pitcher in the majors. Based on his track record to that point, that was a perfectly defensible view. They got a 4-win player for somebody who hadn’t done anything at the big league level. Since a run scored is worth the same as a run prevented, I just don’t see how you can conclude it didn’t pay off. The Rangers wouldn’t have contended last year even if they’d kept Volquez AND he’d pitched like he did in the weaker league. If you’re going to continue to insist on using results to evaluate the trade (which is a terrible way to go about it), you need to at least wait longer than a year to reach your verdict.
I don’t know why you’re so fixated on that trade anyway. As I’ve pointed out, it didn’t do ANYTHING to affect the Rangers plan for contending. Volquez wasn’t a prospect anymore, so his case isn’t germane here. The Rangers are quite clearly committed to letting their young pitchers develop. Do you honestly think they’re just going to freak out and trade them all for position players? Why would that ever happen? Do you think they don’t want to win? Jon Daniels is a smart dude and has earned the trust of all kinds of baseball insiders (people who know more than you and I put together). It’s time you stopped being so dismissive of him.
Since it’s clear you’re not going to be persuaded by anything I say on the subject, let me defer to Keith Law:
“The Rangers have far and away the best farm system in the game right now, with impact prospects, lots of depth (particularly in very young pitching) and plenty of prospects close enough to the majors to help the big league club in 2009 and 2010. ”
You catch that? “Far and away.” Which is to say, way better than second place, let alone 12th place. On what planet do the Royals have a solid pitching staff? They have Greinke and Meche and bunch of question marks/5th-starter types. Davies could very well have turned a corner, but it’s WAY too soon to know for sure. HoRam is already back to the bullpen. Bannister, stat savvy or not, doesn’t get enough strikeouts or ground balls to be a viable ML starter. Hochevar has been disappointing and looks more like a back-of-the-rotation starter at this point. That leaves Sir Sidney, and do you REALLY want to rely on him?
It’s incredibly silly for you to say that the “Royals are stockpiling talent just like the Rangers are, they are just a year behind.” That’s like saying that I’m lifting weights just like Olympic gold medalist Andrei Aramnau, I’m just a year behind. The point being: EVERYBODY wants to stockpile talent like the Rangers have. It’s awfully presumptuous of you to assume the Royals will be the next team to do that.
Here’s Law again:
“Another improved system, boosted by an outstanding 2008 draft led by Eric Hosmer, lefty Mike Montgomery and sleeper Tim Melville, a projected first-rounder who fell after a mediocre spring. The Royals have good pitching depth but are a little light on impact talent after Hosmer.”
It would be quite a feat if the Royals were to go from “light on impact talent” to loaded with it. I’m not saying it’s impossible, I’m just saying that it’s unlikely in the first place and even less likely in light of their apparent desire to try to compete now.
Kansas City’s payroll may be increasing (slowly) and they may not have “no money” to work with. But it’s still a small market and will always have less room for error than other clubs. For a small market team to compete, the front office has to do much better than K.C.’s has. They cannot afford to be wasting dollars and roster spots on mediocre veterans.
Before I finish, I’d like to address a little annoyance. If you have to say something like “not meaning you are saying it” in the middle of making a point, then maybe you should save that point for another debate. I’m only interested in addressing the things you say, not the things that other people are possibly saying. We can’t have a conversation if you keep doing that.
Also, I got the “five years” thing from this quote from you
“Or that it’s pretty widely accepted that Texas has the West locked down for the foreseeable future starting next year or the year after”
Pretty much the same thing
How is that at all the same thing? I didn’t give a precise number of years for a reason–I can’t predict the future!
I’m don’t want to get into the argument portion of these comments, but I will add my two cents about Andruw Jones.
1. He has looked great so far, with a better BB/K ratio than he’s had in the past and has shown great power.
2. It is very, very early; he has a .421 BABIP, including a .600 BABIP in Texas. Also, the opposing pitchers he has faced have allowed a line of .276/.355/.505 to opposing batters. If you want to take it down to a “micro” level, his 10 hits have come against:
Mark Hendrickson (HR)
Koji Uehara (2B)
George Sherrill (2B)
Zach Jackson
Danys Baez (HR)
Scott Downs
Radhames Liz (2B)
Ron Mahay (2B)
Carl Pavano
Kerry Wood (2B)
So, while I like his early-season success, I’d like to see him do something against a team other than the Baltimore Orioles.
With early returns like this, and supposed mutual interest, it’s a shame the Braves didn’t give Jones a chance to come back and patrol center in Turner Field.
Shafer is doing pretty damn good right now, although they could definitely use some help on the corners.
We’ll see. Jones has seen just 40% of pitches in the zone this season, which is an awful lot of respect for a guy who couldn’t hit last season. His contact rate is above any year in fan graphs data. He’s also hitting fly balls a lot more than he ever did before, in Arlington. The good news for Andruw is that he’s in Arlington for the rest of the season. I’m not going to be stunned if he meets his CHONE projection and plays good defense. I’m also not going to be shocked if he meets an 0-15 skid with 9 SO. He’s basically not predictable right now.
How the hell did we wind up with eighteen bajillion comments about the fucking Royals in an Andruw Jones thread?
The same reason as all the other hijackings, a Royals troll with an inferiority complex.
Saying “it was going to just get better anyways” is an incredibly weak argument. Baird has plenty of time to get things turned around, but the entire organization got nothing but worse his entire time in KC. Then, the minute DM gets here, the MLB team gets better three years in a row (going on four) and the farm system improves every single year. Saying that would just have happened anyway is just awful logic. If it “would’ve happened anyway” then why didn’t it happen when Baird was here? He had plenty of time to make some improvements (not to contend, but to at least not be a complete joke), but he didn’t do it. Simple as that.
How does DM not get credit for Callaspo, or Davies. or JOAKIM SORIA, or locking Greinke up when there were significant doubts that he would want to stay in KC?? You say he doesn’t get credit, but you’re pretty much already giving the Rangers credit for building a strong rotation with prospects who haven’t even seen the major league yet and some who are struggling in the minors. Seems odd to me.
I’m not using results to evaluate the trade. I’m using the fact that the Rangers #1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 needs are all pitching, and they traded away a guy who could be a good pitcher for another hitter, when they already had a great offense. Simple as that.
Yeah…trading away pitchers like Volquez and Danks has done nothing to affect their chances of contending the past couple years. I mean, two above average starting pitchers..yeah, that’s nothing.
I don’t know why you feel the need to say the Rangers farm system is better than anyone else’s, I know this. I have said this. What I doubt is that they’ll actually hold onto and turn enough of them into good enough SPs to contend.
In what world do the Royals have a solid pitching staff? The one where Greinke had a 3.56 FIP last year and a sub 2 FIP so far this year. The one where Meche had a 3.62 FIP and a 2.32 FIP so far this year. The one where Davies had a 4.22 FIP last year and a 4.27 FIP so far this year. The one where Hochevar (who will be up soon enough) had a 4.43 FIP last year. Even Banny had a 5.03 FIP last year, which is above average for a #5 starter, easily. That’s a solid rotation, which combined with an elite closer and Juan Cruz and other nice arms..that’s a solid pitching staff and potentially the best in the AL Central.
Nowhere did I say the Royals were going to be the next Rangers. I said we were stockpiling talent and our farm system has gotten better every year under DM’s tenure, given that he’s had what, 2 drafts (he was hired right around the 2006 draft and didn’t not have control of the team at that point, if I recall correctly)…the farm system has gone from a wasteland with only two or three legit prospects to a top ten system. I’d say he’s done a pretty damn good job in two years. Next Rangers, I don’t know, but clearly doing well. That’s the point. I don’t get why you constantly need to compare the Rangers and Royals. The Rangers are clearly ahead of the Royals right now, duh..but that doesn’t make them a lock for the next few years.
I don’t think I said “loaded with impact talent.” I think I said we’re stockpiling talent…and him not mentioning Mike Moustakas as a legit impact prospect is ridiculous. Led the Midwest league in HRs as a teenager, a rare feat, dominated the 2nd half and is already crushing in Wilmington. Defense may be a concern, but he’s still a good prospect..and Gordon and Butler, while disappointing so far, have plenty of time to turn it around..and Gordon was fine last year. There’s plenty of potential everywhere.
No, they can’t afford to waste a bunch of money on aging veterans. Guillen is a mistake in that regard..but of all the “mistakes,” none of them are past 2010..which is right when our chances of contending are best. They are mistakes, but trying to portray them as mistakes that show that DM “can’t evaluate talent” and that are “killing any chances of contending” are going too far. Also, we were significant players in trying to acquire Rafael Furcal, Orlando Hudson, Hiroki Kuroda, and Torii Hunter, among others….if we had signed those guys, would DM still not be able to evaluate talent?? It’s not like some of the guys he has signed were DM’s top choices….he has been financially inefficeient sometimes, but saying he can’t evaluate talent is clearly ridiculous.
Your use of shock quotes and straw men is getting bizarre. Seriously, why are there quotes around things like “killing any chances of contending?” I didn’t say that. Nobody else in the comments here said that. So why is it in quotes? Since you refuse to engage with the actual things I say, I’ll have to check out now.
Ok, I’ll be that guy. But I’d like to point out that since Andruw was proclaimed to be back he’s gone .208/.306/.389 in 85 PAs. That April 28th game was pretty much exactly his high water mark. Now he still might be better than he was last year (big stretch I know), but I’m thinking the skills he had when he was 19 are still largely gone, and he’s still no longer a player worth much of a crap.
Its funny how things work out sometimes. 3 days later and Jones has gone 3 for 8 with 2 HRs.
Jones’ overall line is now .257/.371/.532 and he just started against the righty Billingsley Sunday (and banged a HR off of him).
With Hamilton on the DL, Jones is a HUGE buy for me.
Since this article was first posted, April 28, Andruw Jones batting line is: .204/.307/.463. That’s better than 2007 and 2008, but nothing like the years before it.