60,000 homers? Geez, Dave, talk about wishcasting. I mean, I love Junior as much as the next guy, but averaging 50+ home runs a year for the next millennia is asking a lot of a player that hasn’t played a full season this decade.

Well, first off, I’d argue that the team is not required to fill the first base position with an established veteran. The concept of replacement level is an important one in roster construction, and it especially applies to the positions on the right side of the defensive spectrum. It is remarkably easy to find a guy in Triple-A who can handle first base and hit .270/.350/.450. Those types of players are literally just sitting around waiting for a job.

And, even if we were to accept the idea that the team had to get a name guy at first base, Nick Johnson would be a much better fit for the Mariners needs than Johjima. But I just don’t believe that the team is limited to only the players currently manning first base positions for other teams in the major leagues, and thus, the talent pool for comparison here is much larger than you may think.

It’s not a tough position, and it’s not like he can’t work on it.

Then why not support a conversion of Raul Ibanez to first base and the team acquiring a real left fielder? Ibanez’s defense in left is more harmful to the M’s than Clement’s would be behind the plate, and by locking Clement into 1B/DH, the Mariners have just made it more likely that his brutal lack of range continues to hurt them beyond 2008.

Not at catcher — he leaves much to be desired. U.S.S. Mariner says he has “bad footwork” and a “slow release.”

No one is claiming that he’s good defensively. We’re arguing the relative value of his weaknesses behind the plate. As the guy who wrote those things you’re quoting, I’m saying that they don’t add up to a 25 run negative behind the plate.

If anything, they’re about equal — so why not take the better defense at catcher (which is more crucial to the position than offense) and put the defensive liability at 1B/DH? That’s completely logical.

Because the choice isn’t between Johjima and Clement. The choice is between Johjima and a first baseman, and in that comparison, Johjima loses almost every time.

Claiming that he needs to be -25 behind the plate ignores Johjima. Johjima is an above-average catcher defensively and average offensively.

He was average offensively – it would be something of a minor miracle if his offense didn’t collapse in the next several years. The aging curves for catchers in their mid-30s is brutal. You’re paying Johjima for what he is in 2009-2011, not what he was in 2007.

They are set at C and 1B/DH for less than $27 million over the next three years. How many teams have above-average players at those positions for less than that?

You don’t get to lump them together and assign part of Clement’s value to Kenji. This is akin to saying that if you had drafted both Ken Griffey and Craig Griffey, you’d get 600 hundred homers between them. While technically true, that doesn’t mean that Craig Griffey had any value.

You already have Jeff Clement. The question is whether the team could have found a better first baseman/designated hitter than Johjima. I think the answer is a pretty obvious yes.

Johjima’s primary value isn’t offense, though, that’s what I’m trying to point out. It’s essentially cherry-picking.

I think you missed the point of the graph. It was not player valuation, but instead simply pointing out that Johjima’s offense was trending the wrong way. It’s not cherry picking to point out that a catcher is not likely to continue to hit at 32-35 like he did when he was 30 or 31.

Why?

Baseball Prospectus’ defensive metrics are based on non-play-by-play methods of determining value. They just aren’t accurate enough, and in terms of valuing catchers, they really aren’t accurate at all. It’s best to just pretend that they don’t exist, because FRAA/FRAR provide more misinformation than anything useful.

Keith Woolner, among others, spent a lot of time writing about different ways to quantify defensive value from the catching position while he worked at BP. He never relied on FRAA once, knowing that the statistic just didn’t have any value.

It’s even more costly through a trade and either way they’re most likely eating some contract. Todd Helton may be available via trade, for instance, and he’s super-expensive.

What first basemen are out there that are both cheaper than an average $8 million per season over three years and more productive than Kenji Johjima?

Jeff Clement has never played an inning at first base in his life.

It’s not a tough position, and it’s not like he can’t work on it.

At this point, judging his defensive abilities there is nothing more than a wild guess.

Not at catcher — he leaves much to be desired. U.S.S. Mariner says he has “bad footwork” and a “slow release.”

Just to break even, you’d have to believe that Clement costs the team 25 or more runs defensively behind the plate.

Factoring in both offense and defense, how much more valuable would Clement be than Johjima?

If anything, they’re about equal — so why not take the better defense at catcher (which is more crucial to the position than offense) and put the defensive liability at 1B/DH? That’s completely logical.

Claiming that he needs to be -25 behind the plate ignores Johjima. Johjima is an above-average catcher defensively and average offensively.

The Mariners just took $8 million out of their 2009 budget. How does that give them more financial flexibility?

They are set at C and 1B/DH for less than $27 million over the next three years. How many teams have above-average players at those positions for less than that?

It was to point that he’s not exactly trending the way you want a guy to be trending when you’re handing him a long term contract heading into his mid-30s.

Johjima’s primary value isn’t offense, though, that’s what I’m trying to point out. It’s essentially cherry-picking.

FRAA just isn’t a good statistic for valuing any position, but it’s especially hopeless at catcher.

Why?

Thanks for taking the time to respond thoroughly to my questions and points.

There are other ways to acquire a first baseman than through free agency.

Clement is less of a defensive liability at first base, so his value might actually go up with a position switch, and might even go up further if he’s used only as a DH since he is generally poor defensively.

Jeff Clement has never played an inning at first base in his life. At this point, judging his defensive abilities there is nothing more than a wild guess. And I have to disagree with the belief that his defense behind the plate is so bad that he’d be more valuable as a DH. The positional difference between those two positions is about 25 runs. Just to break even, you’d have to believe that Clement costs the team 25 or more runs defensively behind the plate. Even Mike Piazza at the end of his career wasn’t -25 behind the plate.

so the Mariners will have more financial flexibility and less on their shopping list with Johjima at catcher and Clement at 1B/DH.

The Mariners just took $8 million out of their 2009 budget. How does that give them more financial flexibility?

it ignores his defense (his primary value), and it includes his ‘08 offensive output, which is a small sample size.

The point of the graph wasn’t to analyze Johjima’s entire value as a player. It was to point that he’s not exactly trending the way you want a guy to be trending when you’re handing him a long term contract heading into his mid-30s.

He is a great defensive catcher — 17 Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA) last season…

FRAA just isn’t a good statistic for valuing any position, but it’s especially hopeless at catcher.

Clement is less of a defensive liability at first base, so his value might actually go up with a position switch, and might even go up further if he’s used only as a DH since he is generally poor defensively.

In addition, Clement will be making the Major League minimum and just a bit over that in the two years after ’09, so the Mariners will have more financial flexibility and less on their shopping list with Johjima at catcher and Clement at 1B/DH.

Lastly, I have two issues with your use of the graph above as part of your argument against Johjima: it ignores his defense (his primary value), and it includes his ’08 offensive output, which is a small sample size.

I’m especially a huge Kenji fan, but I don’t get this. I’d have no problem with a one year extension, and was actually expecting two years, thinking that would be the one year too many. If Clement wasn’t there, it wouldn’t be such a big deal, but he is, and the Mariners just don’t do a good job of integrating young players into the bigs.