What the Chicago Cubs Should Do
Overview
Despite a poor start and a 24-29 record, the Cubs only sit 7 games behind division leaders St. Louis and 5.5 games behind second place Cincinnati. They remain within striking distance if they can put together a strong stretch, but given the amount of talent on the two teams ahead of them, their playoff odds are long, likely around or below 10%. This has to be a disappointing, albeit salvageable, season to date for a team with a $144 million opening day payroll, especially given that $103 million of that payroll will be around for the 2011 season.
Buy Or Sell
The answer right now is likely “hold” – if both St. Louis (7-9) and Cincinnati (6-11) continue playing as poorly as they have in June, selling would be premature. However, the Cubs are too far out of the race to buy at this point, at seven games behind and playing just as poorly as the Cardinals this month. Given that I find the “buy” scenario to be a low probability affair, I will take a look at who the Cubs could be selling soon.
There are two obvious selling chips for the Cubs: Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly, both of whom have $13 million contracts expiring at the end of the season. Lilly would be a perfect “sell high” candidate. His 4.75 xFIP and 4.47 FIP are masked by a shiny 3.42 ERA and .234 BABIP. Lilly’s strikeouts are down and walks are up, which is unsurprising out of a 34 year old starter. Given that the Cubs could easily slide Tom Gorzelanny (2.80 FIP, 3.59 xFIP as a stater) into Lilly’s spot, the Cubs should move Lilly now if they can.
The situation with Lee isn’t quite as simple. He’s been hitting poorly this season, only posting a .327 wOBA, but much of that is based on a .268 BABIP. At 35, there’s no guarantee that this is all luck, and so there will almost certainly be some trepidation among teams looking for help at 1B. It’s likely that he’s still a good fielder, as his +4 UZR to date agrees with his +9.4 combined score from the last two seasons, so there is still some value here. Also, the potential replacements in Xavier Nady, Chad Tracy, and Micah Hoffpauir aren’t exactly desirable for even half of a down season, if it comes to that. Right now, the Cubs should hold their cards and hope that Lee can build up some value before the deadline.
Ryan Theriot‘s name has been bandied about in trade rumors recently as well. Theriot is a 30 year old but still has two years of arbitration left. However, his productivity has sharply dove since a solid 2008 season, to the point where his walk rate of 4.9% is less than half that of his 3.2 WAR 2008. His ground balls are way up (56.1% this season), leading to far less power – his ISO of .030 is down 55 points from last season. ZiPS suggests a partial turnaround is possible. Theriot’s value is low right now, but if a desperate team for middle infield help comes calling, the Cubs should deal, as given Theriot’s age, there’s no guarantee that he returns to the form that compiled 5.6 WAR in 2008 and 2009.
On The Farm
The Cubs farm system has vastly improved in recent years, as shown by the graduations of Tyler Colvin, Andrew Cashner and Starlin Castro this season. Hak-Ju Lee also shows great promise at SS, and should form the middle infield of the future with Castro. Josh Vitters is a 20 year old 3B with talent to burn despite struggling at AA so far this season. Overall, Beyond the Boxscore’s composite farm system rankings has the Cubs 10th, with six top-100 prospects.
Budget
If the Cubs do end up buying, they likely won’t be able to add much in the way of salary, particularly in long term deals. The $144 million opening day number was the highest in team history, and the team has two very expensive and likely untradeable contracts on hand until 2012 and 2014 respectively in the forms of Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano. On the other hand, selling on Lee and Lilly could give some short term salary relief which could allow the team to be more aggressive next winter.
11
I really like the idea of trading Lilly. He seems like the perfect player for Philly’s GM Ruben Amaro, with a shiny ERA.
The Cubs are 31-38 and 7 behind the Cardinals and 8 out in the Wild Card. Their pecota-adjusted playoff odds is under 2%.
You could have made a lot of money over the last several years if you could find someone to play the house as Pecota-adjusted playoff odds. I’ll put a hundred down on the field against the rangers at 6:1, thank you very much.
OK, there regular playoff odds are 5%. Does that make you feel better?
Given my status as a Brewers fan and blogger, I wanted to be as generous as possible here.
I would’ve assumed the most obvious selling chip for the Cubs would be Carlos Silva. Granted, he hasn’t pitched nearly as well as his record or ERA would indicate, he seems to have rediscovered his impeccable command and has churned out solid start after solid start (11 of 14 with 3 ER or less). Plus, he’s got a few masterful (strange using that word to describe Silva’s performance) starts, specifically his 11 strikeout performance against the Cardinals. He is still only 31 with just over 1200 career IP, so as fluky as this probably is, it could still be a muted peak. The strikeout rate is a bit baffling for such a soft tosser, but I would have to guess that’s more of a product of hitting the corners than missing bats.
Additionally, the Cubs are only on the hook for approximately $12 million (by my estimation) of his remaining contract over the remainder of this season and next season. Of course, that’s still not a palatable price for a guy whose career year, prior to this season, consisted of a 3.44 ERA, 71:9 K:BB rate and 25 HRs in 188.1 IP, but with just about every contender looking for back-of-the-rotation help (at least), I would have to think he’s got to grab someone’s attention, if the Cubs are willing to eat a portion of his remaining salary. Also, as mentioned regarding Lilly, the drop-off from him to Gorzelanny is manageable.
Obviously there are red flags galore, but at the end of the day, we’re still looking at 31-year old pitcher who has generally exuded exceptional control over the course of his career and maybe can be a serviceable back-end starter thanks to a league switch (after all, he was mildly effective as a reliever for the Phillies upon first breaking into the league). I’m still shocked he’s been this effective and I’m not buying into it lasting much longer, but I’d have to think he’s on people’s radar based on what he’s done this season, and I’m sure the Cubs would move him with much less resistance or demands than either of the aforementioned trading chips in the article.
He’s on a two year deal and the owner has said that he doesn’t want to throw cash in on trades.
When did Ricketts say he wouldn’t throw cash in on trades? If he’s said that, it slipped under the radar (and shouldn’t have, because the Cubs would need to eat salary to get rid of nearly anyone).
Not sure if the first draft of this post was written like a week ago, but yeah, there’s no way in hell the Cubs make the playoffs this year. Delaying the shift to sell mode is just counterproductive at this point. There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that the Cubs should be fielding offers for guys like Ted Lilly and Derrek Lee as we speak. There is no sense at all in holding out hope for this season. So, I have to disagree with this post in that sense– there is no reason for the Cubs to “hold” at all.
Lee, Lilly, Fukudome, Nady, Silva, Fontenot, Baker, Byrd, Soriano and Zambrano should all be on the block. won’t be able to trade them all but they should all be available. So should Theriot, bullpen (all of them minus Cashner) and if the Cubs want to get a blue chip in return they can get at least 1 for Soto who will be 28 next year.
This team needs to blow it up and start all over.
I disagree. In the NL Central, with the kind of resources they have at their disposal, I don’t really see a reason for the Cubs to ever have to “blow it up and start over.”
Realistically, Neither of Soriano or Byrd are going anywhere. The team is probably stuck with Aramis Ramirez, and shouldn’t be interested in trading Soto if they have any interest in competing for a division championship next year, which they should be. Sure, names like Silva, and perhaps one of Baker and Fontenot might not be on the roster next year, but none of these moves would really constitute “blowing it up.” The NL Central isn’t such a competitive division that the they’re looking up at two teams who have a stranglehold on it for the next 2-3 years. If the Cubs could somehow make just a few savvy moves, they could find themselves right back in the thick of things next year.
When you rebuild a team it does not mean you blow it up or get rid of everyone. You rid yourself of high dollar players. Theriot, Byrd, are very cost effective at their positions. Also, If Lee and Lilly are type A free agents we may be better off not trading them. Soto is very good price so I don’t understand the concept of trading him.
I agree there should be more guys available, but lets be realistic. Soriano, Zambrano and ARam aren’t going anywhere, they’re paid too much and if Ricketts said they won’t eat money, they won’t most likely.
Byrd and Theriot could bring back something valuable, as could Lilly and DLee. Nady, Fontenot, Baker aren’t worth anything more than a PTBNL. Bullpen has been poor, so who wants them.
And, no, the next manager(hopefully Sandberg) will play Soto every day, and sit that waste Koyie Hill
How’s this for a hypothetical trade: Ryan Theriot to the Royals for Kila Ka’aihue? As long as he isn’t playing shorstop, Theriot isn’t all that valuable to the Cubs, especially considering how heavily their lineup leans to the right. Perhaps the Royals would be of the mind to replace Yuiniesky Betancourt if the right opportunity presented itself, and would be willing to part with a Ka’aihue in such a deal. To this point, they have refused to award the guy a fair crack at the big leagues despite his impressive performance in the high minors. The Cubs should already be in the market for a replacement of some sort for Derrek Lee, so it makes sense on a number of levels for them to give a cheap, left-handed bat a chance to establish himself in the National League.
You never know with the Royals, but they shouldn’t be looking to acquire anyone in their 30s for a prospect even if it’s a fair trade.
yeah, they should send Alex Gordon to the minors and acquire bentancort. No one knows who or what the royals will do, I like the idea of this trade anyway
The Cubs should just fold. They will never win again. It’s their fate. It doesn’t matter what the franchise does.
That’s pretty much my attitude with the Cubs. No matter what they do, in the end, they’re still the Cubs.
When the cardinals don;t win the division, it is fun watching the Cubs get swept in the 1st round.
Yes, I’m being crude as a Cardinals fan. But, I have a good reason, my baseball-crazy 9yo has “blue disease”.
I’m hoping years and years of disappointment and heartbreak will cure him … but for some reason it just makes Cubbie fans more resilient.
I think there’s quite a few teams that should just “hold” instead of making lateral (or worse) moves, just for the sake of making a move.
I do think the Cubs should get rid of Pinella. [1] He’s not that great of a manager, [2] he doesn’t seem to handle players well, and [3] he’s at his saturation point with the whole Cubs Experience. It just gets uglier from here on out.
That may be… at the very least, Theriot isn’t taking ABs away from a young player who’s in the Cubs’ future, so there isn’t the same kind of pressure to find a trade partner as there is with Fukudome. At this point, the Cubs need to see how much of the $21 or so million they can pass along to another team. Even if they’re forced to send along something like $8-10MM along with the player, it would still amount to something like $10MM saved that could be reinvested elsewhere.
Not quite sure why the Royals would want Theriot. They already have Betancourt, Aviles, Callaspo and Bloomquist – that’s a lot of mediocrity in one infield/utility position. Ka’aihue isn’t going to get a chance with the Royals, for whatever reason – remember last year, after his tremendous 2008, the Royals acquired Mike Jacobs specifically to block Kila from a job – so he may have to wait for minor league free-agency to get a shot.
Lee is a huge fan draw, though, and without him the team’s only big name is Soriano. Aramis’ star has been fading for a few years now and fans have almost forgotten Zambrano’s good years. And unlike Soriano, no matter how poorly Lee is playing, the fans will always love him. Plus, he wants to retire with the Cubs:
http://www.foulballs.net/2010/03/derrek-lee-wants-to-retire-as-cub.html
…and may be willing to take a fairly sizable pay cut to remain with the club for 2011+.
That’s all well and good for Derrek Lee, and he seems like a great guy, but in this day of 12-13 man pitching staffs I’m not sure that a team can afford to keep a poor-hitting, right-handed-hitting 1B-only bench player around, no matter how cheap he gets.
Not much discussion surrounding the potential compensation picks the Cubs would receive in offering Lilly Arb. He’s currently scheduled to be a Type A according to MLBTradeRumors projection and in a loaded 2011 draft, wouldn’t that likley surpass the value the Cubs could get in a trade for Lilly, given some of the obvious limitations (velocity concerns, statistical concerns)?
Also why is Marlon Byrd not listed as a worthwhile asset to sell? He’s got a friendly contract and has value to contending teams being able to play all 3 OF positions and do it well. His salary isn’t significant which opens his market up to small and mid market teams as well and the Cubs wouldn’t likely have to eat salary (which the owner has noted is a concern).
Plus if they’re trading an OF to clear room for Colvin to get ABs and they aren’t sending money away, Byrd is really the only candidate that makes any sense.
I was just about to mention Byrd. Along with his great contract and versatility, his trade value’s probably at its peak right now, much higher than anything Lee or Lilly could net at this point.
And at this point it looks like playing Tyler Colvin every day wouldn’t be much of a dropoff.
I think Tom Ricketts should take the Cubs out of baseball and start a circus.
Nate, he hasn’t taken them out of baseball, but it’s definitely a circus. (dying laughing)
I must say, it gives me great pleasure to see the phrase (dyling laughing) here.
They might be 7 games out, and I guess their lack of really attractive pieces to sell maybe means that taking a low-percentage shot at playing out the season doesn’t cost them much, but you also have to take their talent level into account.
If they were 7 games out and as good as Cinci/StL, you’d still give them a low shot at making it if everything breaks right, they stay healthy and maybe one or other of the teams ahead of them goes into a nosedive. However, most projections at the start of the year had them 10+ games behind the Cards and a few games back of the Reds; they’re not as good as the teams they’re chasing anyway, which makes a 7 game deficit an even bigger stretch.
By my count, Xavier Nady is the Cubs’ most likely trade piece at this point. He’s raking this month, his arm is finally back to full strength in the outfield, he’s signed for a dirt cheap rate through this year, he’s versatile, and he has no no-trade protection.
For better or worse, the Cubs simply will not deal Byrd. Byrd appears to be one of Hendry’s very few good FA aquisitions, and since Hendry is probably interested in keeping his job, I think he’s gonna hang on to a player whose performance has justified front office’s plan of action.
Just because this year is essentially over for them, doesn’t mean they need to throw in the towel for next year. In my opinion, Marlon Byrd’s production, especially for the price, is worth more to the Cubs than whatever he’d yield in a trade. They need to keep Byrd with an eye towards winning next year.
I keep hearing about how the Cubs have a large payroll and they should just go ahead and try to contend next year. A team doesn’t decide whether it’s a contending team or not based on their payroll, but rather the talent they have returning. Just because the Cubs have a large payroll doesn’t justify trying to contend when the team lacks the talent to do so. Are the Cubs going to increase payroll to upwards of $170 million next season? If not, then they’re going to fall short of being a contending team. Their current players on their roster are worth about 75 wins next season and are being paid $123 million. A team decides it’s a contender based on talent alone and not payroll. I don’t like the argument that if a team has a high payroll they shouldn’t rebuild. Rebuilding is what teams do based on their talent. What money does is allow a team like the Cubs to rebuild more quickly than an organization like the Marlins or Royals.
“Are the Cubs going to increase payroll to upwards of $170 million next season? If not, then they’re going to fall short of being a contending team”
Says who? Why is it impossible for the team to have a payroll in the same neighborhood as this year and make the necessary improvements? I mean, that opinion isn’t backed up with any facts whatsoever.
The NL Central is the far from the most difficult division in baseball. The Cubs are primed to make significant cut backs in their payroll, perhaps enough to give them $30-40MM to spend this next offseason if they were so inclined. If we assume they let both Derrek Lee and Ted Lilly walk after this year, that’s $23MM off the payroll just like that. What if they move Fukudome and save, say, $8-10MM?
If the Cubs were to spend that money wisely, there would be absolutely nothing preventing them from contending next season.
If they are going to spend that money wisely, they should hurry up and hire a new GM. Preferably one who can judge talent based on more than pitcher wins, batting average, and RBI.
The problem with the Cubs budget is that players were acquired, not necessarily to win a championship, but to attract new ownership and increase the final selling number.
Soriano and Pinella were brought in to be “stars” and draw attention, and they both did in their first years. Everyone in Chicagoland was Soriano crazy, and Sweet Lou had it all working.
—————————
I hate the Cubs. Hate, not so much …. perhaps “disgusted” is a better word.
But, truthfully, in the NLC, all the Cubs need is for their players to play a little closer to their “true talent” or “career norms” or whatever we wanna call it.
DLee (even at his age) is a good hitter. Aramius has been a very under-rated offensive player who’s damn consistent when he’s not hurt. Their middle infield is adequate. Soriano is below league average one month and elite player in another. He’s streaky, but overall it tends to balance out. Byrd is having a really good season, as is Colvin.
Dempster, Lilly, and Silva are all having good/decent seasons. Zambrano and Wells have fallen off, and that’s troubling.
The Cubs, like quite a few teams, are pretty much locked in with the players they have, unless they want to [1] trade them, and [2] eat a big part of their contract. They are just underperforming or struggling with injuries.
How long until the Cubs trade Samardijza to the Bears?
And by spending money wisely I assume you mean turning Alfonso Soriano into someone like Tim Lincecum or Evan Longoria. Even if you could magically erase payroll like that for an extremely valuable player you are still coming up short.
The bottom line is this: just because you have a high payroll does not mean you should try to contend every season. Contending is based only the talent that you have returning the next season. If you don’t have it, you don’t contend. You can’t magically turn $20 million into players who make league minimum while also being better than the guy you’re trading who is one of the highest paid players in baseball. I don’t care who your GM is, you can’t do that.
By spending money wisely I meant investing in Cliff Lee. Spending $20MM or so on Cliff Lee’s salary would be pretty good use of they saved.
And my argument that the Cubs should try and contend next year isn’t only because of their resources. There’s talent on the roster. Enough so that a few smart moves makes them contenders in an imminently winnable division.
The Cubs roster isn’t totally devoid of talent. Marlon Byrd and Geo Soto are both having very solid years, as is Alfonso Soriano, who’s proving he’s got a little something left in the tank. Tyler Colvin is showing what his upside is. Aramis Ramirez is obviously in the middle of a lost season, but it’s not out of the question that he could bounce back in 2011. This may be Derrek Lee’s last year on the team, but it isn’t that difficult to find a first baseman who can swing the bat. And if the Cubs were to hang on to Xavier Nady, they’d have a guy who could spell both Colvin and the new 1B against lefties.
What if you add Cliff Lee to the equation? The Cubs 1-5 would go Lee, Dempster, Zambrano, Gorzellany/Wells, Cashner/Jackson… Quite possibly the best rotation in the NL.
The Cubs can win next year, largely thanks to the financial flexibility the franchise enjoys.
Piniella has to go! Hes lost control of the team, and does not seem to care that its happened. This team has to use the hit and run, run and hit, the stolen base, and the bunt to make things happen. Piniella hardly ever uses any of these things. And please figure out an everyday lineup. Half the season is gone and Piniella has no clue what his basic lineup is.
I understand that it is easy to be frustrated with Lee and Ramirez, but then I start thinking about Alex Rios and Vernon Wells. They were so awful that the Jays just let Rios go, and now he is having a great year for the White Sox and Wells has made a comeback. The fact that Lee and Ramirez have both slumped at once seems to be a “Cubbie occurence”. I understand trading Lilly, but I don’t believe Gorzelany will be as consistently good. Too bad Fukudome’s trade value is so low. He is the logical odd man out in the outfield.
Gorzellany > Ted Lilly: Right now.
Just look at the numbers. Then consider Gorzellany is younger, and isn’t one offseason removed from shoulder surgery
Very good post. To think–we could have had Vernon Wells this summer for Soriano.
“The answer right now is likely “hold” – if both St. Louis (7-9) and Cincinnati (6-11) continue playing as poorly as they have in June, selling would be premature.”
What a tepid and equivocating response – not to mention one that’s irrational. The Cubs have a ~5% chance at the playoffs this season. They’re not getting any younger. If they’ve go the opportunity to unload some of the disasterous contracts, they should. The chance that they leap frog two teams is minimal. Are you seriously pointing at the recent performance of STL and CIN as indicative of what they’ll do moving forward? Fangraphs used to be better than this . . .
I have to wonder if now that the team isn’t being pumped up for sale, if the new ownership would ever consider dumping a ton of payroll, and capitalizing on bros/antique park factor.
LOL, are you serious? The ricketts family did not buy to sell to make a quick couple million. They would probably take a loss at this point. They need to alleviate payroll in case they become buyers.
If the Cubs ARE ABLE to shed $30-$40mm in the likes of Lee Lilly and Fukudome, that still leaves them short a 3rd SP, a 1B, and a RF. 3 pretty important positions. They’re not gonna get a Pujols, Hallady or Braun to replace any of them so why shell out so much money if these replacement players will just continue to make the Cubs mediocre? Soto is a bust and at 28, nothing to get excited about. Theriot is the most fan favorite average player I have ever seen. Aram is 4 years past his prime and injury prone. I dont even need to mention Soriano or Zambrano. Dempster is making $14mm per year. $14MM!!!!! Hendry overvalues all of his players. Sell everone, save some moey, play the kids, and by 2012 you will know what minor leaguers can contribute to this team. Then with the money you have saved, go after some HIGH profile FAs. Not Byrd or Chad Tracy or Xavier Nady
Where to start… calling Soto a bust just reflects a gross misunderstanding of how to value a player’s offensive contribution. He’s a catcher with a .400+ OPB for cryin out loud.
Short a RF? What about Tyler Colvin? Has not most of the clamoring for dealing Fukudome been as a result of how well he’s played this year?
Short a #3 starter? What the hell are you talking about? The Cubs have more depth in the rotation than maybe anyone in the NL. So much depth that some have speculated they may trade not 1 but 2 starting pitchers this summer. They have Sean Marshall and Tom Gorzellany and Andrew Cashner with Jay Jackson in the minors. They literally have more pitching than they know what to do with.
Oh and Ryan Dempter is worth every penny on his contract
You think Dempster is worth $14mm. That is why the Cubs have $140 mm payroll and will be lucky to end up w/ 72 wins. In your logic, pay everyone more than what they are worth because of decent seasons. Well, Hendry did that and that is why this article is being discussed. This is the aftermath of paying everyone
For all those who want to blow it all up and start over, it just ain’t that easy. With guys like Zambrano, Soriano, Fukudome and Ramirez, you first have to find someone who wants them at any price. Add to that, they have to be interested at a price that actually helps the Cubs. You’ve gained nothing if Soriano goes, but his salary stays. Getting rid of Bradley his salary and getting Silva + $9M in return was a minor miracle. There probably aren’t that many more miracles left in the Cubs medicine bottle. IMO
Of course it’s easier said than done. They’re not actually going to be able to trade 22 of their 25 players. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t all be available.
I don’t think teams just look at a guy’s ERA and decide whether they should trade for him based on that. In fact, I’m not sure any Major League team has.
You need look no further than the Ryan Dempster’s player page on the very site you are commenting on to discover that he’s worth every bit of his salary. Last year he threw 200 innings of 3.94 FIP ball. That was worth over $16MM. Dempster isn’t a huge bargain, but he’s worth his salary, especially for a big market team like the Cubs who can afford to pay a small premium on wins.
Dempster’s updated ZiPs projection has him pegged for 208 innings of 3.92 FIP. So it’s quite possible that Dempster’s performance this year will be worth more than it was last year.
The Cubs do not need to make their entire team available. There is no reason to blow up the entire roster. They can win next year. They just need to make a few smart moves– some of them right now. But it would be foolish to punt next season just because of how poorly this one has gone. If the Cubs played in the AL East, then sure, that’d be smart. But they don’t. The combination of their talent, resources, and relatively easy competition dictates that the organization needs to operate with an eye towards 2011, not 2013
Just a minor note – Lilly’s stats look artificially bad because he’s improving coming off of shoulder surgery. He got a little “lucky” through April and may when his k% and his k:bb looked pretty bad, but his June has been very good. K’s are back up and walks are fine.
Good points ACB. If anything, I think that just supports the idea that teams are and should be interested in dealing for Lilly, partly because they plan to offer him arbitration after the season if they do.
However– it should be added that LIlly’s ERA is actually considerably better than both his FIP and xFIP suggest it should be. His peripherals may have improved this month, but all told Lilly has been a bit lucky to have had these kinda results this year.
Obviously the Cubs need to shed payroll. Free up cash to make a few tweeks to the roster building for 2011. Lee and Lilly are as good as gone. Fukudome & Nady should be traded and Tyler Colvin takes over everyday in RF at least for the rest of this season. Try to trade Zambrano and Soriano, easier said then done. Trade for 1B Adrian Gonzalez & Heath Bell. Sign Carl Crawford even though it`s unlikely to move Soriano. Signing Crawford is still a must to give us a LH hitting 5 tool player at the top of the order. New Manager Ryne Sandberg would rotate Byrd, Colvin & Soriano in 2 OF spots starting Crawford every day in RF! Sign Cliff Lee to replace Lilly. Trade for Dan Haren if we could some how move Zambrano!
2011 Lineup
1 L Carl Crawford-RF
2 R Ryan Theriot-2B
3 R Marlon Byrd-CF
4 L Adrian Gonzalez-1B
5 R Aramis Ramirez-3B
6 L Tyler Colvin-LF or Soriano
7 R Geovany Soto-C
8 R Starlin Castro-SS
2011 Rotation
1 L Ciff Lee
2 R Dan Haren or Zambrano
3 R Ryan Dempster
4 R Carlos Silva
5 L Tom Gorzelanny
2011 Bullpen
Cl R Carlos Marmol
SU R Heath Bell
SU L Sean Marshall
R Andrew Cashner
R Randy Wells
R Jeff Stevens
L James Russell
R Jay Jackson
That`s what Hendry or hopefully a new GM needs to do to get the Cubs to contend for there 1st World Championship in 103 years!
I’ve watched most of the games this season and the current team does not pass the eyeball test. I can’t see how the roster as it is currently constructed can win the NL Central, not to mention the Pennant or World Series. Considering the current state of affairs, I would determine ‘fair value’ for each player on the roster and look to retool. With that said, I think there are many variables to consider when determining ‘who stays and who goes’….here’s my thoughts:
1) Overachievers/Underachievers: Much like the stock market, you need to sell at the highest value. Especially if there is perceived value from a trade partner. A previous post mentioned Silva…great trade bait if you look at wins/losses alone. When you factor in contract & contract length, it makes the trading negotiations far more difficult to get your ‘fair value’ in return without kicking in some cashola.
2) Contracts: Lilly and Lee are in their contract year and a mutual option for Ramirez. As the GM, you need to have a pulse on ‘signability’. Will Lilly and/or Lee resign? What do you anticipate their contract demands to be….length and $$$? Speaking of contracts, there is no way you are unloading Z and Soriano when you evaluate productive value in comparison to contract dollars/length. However, if Z picks it up and pitches like he has pitched in the past, starting pitching is by far more a premium than a below-average LF that is inconsistent at best.
3) Farm System: Who are your quality prospects and the realistic timeframe they will be major league ready? If you were to look at the farm system and the current major league roster, you would see that the glut of middle infielders and 3B has the most potential. It seems that Vitters still has a ways to go, but in a hypothetical situation, if he were a little further along in his progress, Ramirez would be the likely trade bait. On the other hand, Lee is a little less expendable because of several reasons: a) less depth at 1B in the minors, b) DLee is a gold-glove winning 1B and considering the trend where teams are focusing on defense, speed, and athleticism…it makes perfect sense. Also, Lee is less injury-prone (excluding his wrist injury in ’07).
4) Free Agent Market: I think that depleting the farm system by dangling top prospects for short-term or higher priced MLB players is fools gold, in most cases. Keeping lower salary, arb minor leaguers who are on the cusp (1-2 years away of making an impact) allows you to evaluate players and sign free agents rather than making a pressured decision at the trade deadline like many teams do around this time. It is time for the Cubs to cash in on the more vulnerable clubs who need impact players at the deadline who will be more likely to deal impact prospects as the pressure to win increases.
5) Age: If you take a step back, you’d see that the core players on the current roster are not getting any younger. Although these players are the best players, I think we are beginning to see a decline in consistent productivity in many of the players. a) Soriano: No where near the 40/40 player we thought we signed. b) Ramirez, Dempster, Lilly, Lee, Theriot, Byrd, Fukudome, and Soriano are all over 30…that’s pretty much the starting lineup excluding Soto and Castro. Those over 30 aren’t going to get much better. In other words, they’ve already peaked and their value will continue to decrease over time.
Ultimately, I think you have to have a plan as to how you see your roster shaping up long-term. The trend is moving towards speed, athleticism, defense, and pitching. There are quite a few of over-valued contracts on the roster that will be difficult to unload. You’ve got to evaluate a bunch of factors to determine who says and goes. But this much I do know, the current roster will NEVER win a World Series (barring a miracle) and it is time to get the most out of the players we have one way or the other. If you don’t get the appropriate value for a player, then you don’t make the deal. We shouldn’t give away players but at the same time we shouldn’t hold on to players that we can dangle and get increased value based on their historical performance because other teams are competing for their current production for the playoff run.
I completely agree.
Name one player on the cubs whom you can tag as your ‘franchise’ player. Maybe Castro, (maybe-I think its still too premature to tag him franchise)
I would like to add, and I dont think it will be possible, a Jacoby Ellsbuy type, and some how add Carl Crawford in the offseason-although it wont happen.
Gut the pitching staff, and acquire young power arms.
I would keep Soto, Castro, Colvin, and Cashner. Maybe even Marmol.