My objection to FIP (specifically looking at it as THE stat, rather than as a collection of stats), is that it looks to remove team defense from the pitching aspect of the situation, and I view pitcher and team defense as being 2 aspects that work together in harmony (or should).

I look at this primarily from my experience as a pitcher. If this is incorrect, someone please elbarote why.

When I get the ball on the mound, the first thing I would look at is where my middle infielders are positioning and what the situation is.

For example: This a runner on 1B and less than 2-outs, my SS/2B are going to be positioning “up the middle” based on the situation (provided we do not have very accurate scouting reports that show we should be positioned a little differently). Now, as a pitcher I KNOW that I need to do whatever I can to try and influence the hitter to hit the ball up the middle. For me, as a LHP, this means, in this particular situation a well-placed change-up on the outside corner may have a great chance of being a weak grounder in the hole, versus a routine 2-hopper to SS, which plays AGAINST our team defense concept. The result might be an IF single, instead of a GIDP. That’s MY fault, not theirs. My better strategy is a 2-seamer starting in and running over the middle or outside corner, down in the zone … or a cutter starting away and breaking more over the plate (again, down in the zone).

If I elevate the ball a little too much, allowing for a hard grounder or liner through the IF gaps, then again, that is MY fault, not the defenses.

This is but one example of hundreds (possibly). If my defense is playing the batter to “pull” and my pitching approach (location, selection, etc) is influencing the batter to hit the ball “away” …

I do understand why a stat would want to isolate a pitcher’s contibutions particularly in a FO aspect or for stat predictions …. but as far as evaluating a pitcher’s performance or contributions to the team, I’m not sure “FIP is IT” (while understanding it is to others).

For a pitcher like CC29, whose “calling card” seems to be a 2-seamer/sinker that influence GB%, rather than striking everyone out, FIP might not be the best indicator, especially if considering the team defensively ‘strategizes’ based on CC29′s “sinker-strength”.

I’m new to FIP despite reading DC’s 7-part series on it, so it’s also possible I don;t have a full appreciation of the statistic and its importance.

“FIP is a great stat when trying to project the future. If I were a scout or a GM, I’d be all over pitchers who had a good FIP.

However, when we’re talking about the Cy Young, it’s not about projecting the future. It’s about evaluating what the pitcher actually did. And as far as evaluating what he did, an out is out is an out.

What really matters in pitching? Getting outs. Preventing runs.

Fortunately, we already have two excellent, garden-variety stats that tell us what we need to know about these things. As far as getting outs, opponents’ on-base percentage is the ultimate measure. Its easier-to-calculate cousin is WHIP. As far as preventing runs, we’ve got ERA.

Lincecum had a 2.48 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05, while Carpenter’s numbers were 2.24 and 1.01. Looks to me like Carpenter did a better job than Lincecum at those two jobs: getting outs and preventing runs.”

They listed Lincecum’s decreased performance as the season went on and his drastic split in performance home v. road, as major contributors. In short, he was awesome in a hitter-friendly park, not as much on the road. Strange, I don’t recall reading the same things being said of Sandy Koufax, even though his road ERA was something like 1.5 pts higher during his amazing 3-5 year run. The comparisons between Lincecum and Koufax don’t stop there. I hope people appreciate what we’re seeing in Lincecum … and by the voting, I’m guessing they do.

But, I do agree, for him to win 22+ games, he’s going to have be even better than he currently is (imagine that!) or have one of those years where he gets a lot of favorable draws in pitching matchups (against other teams 3-5 starters), division teams have down years (although one could say that happened this year with ARZ losing Webb and SDP being SDP), and him eating up even more innings. I think as his career goes on, SFG will be more willing to allow him to accumulate even *more* innings.

Right now, I think his frame and mechanics are sort of an unknown. His delivery is so violent with an extreme stride length (much greater than height; stride length generally = height of player) and maximal shoulder-hip rotation (right shoulder facing 3B as belt buckle faces home plate) — It’s Freak’ing beautiful, if you can pull it off — are unknowns to the baseball world because we haven’t really seen a guy with his slight frame and mechanics before (or at least in recent memory).

Lots of predictions that he will suffer a major injury, but also some predictions that his athleticism and “sinewy strength” is why he can optimize and sustain this delivery. An interesting aspect to me will be whether he can still use the same mechanics as he approaches 31 or 32 and his athleticism decreases a tad. I’m guessing he’ll make some tweaks as he ages.

I will say this, currently in the pitching mechanics world, Lincecum is THE hot topic. If he proves sturdy (and I think he will), he will change (perhaps drastically) A LOT of what we think we knew about the mechanics of pitching … but he also might be one of those rare combinations that others cannot replicate.

B) Wainwright didn’t become as good at stranding runners while pitching seven innings at a time as Mariano Rivera is at stranding them pitching one or two innings at a time. I will say that with a high degree of confidence. The only starting pitcher to play this decade with a career strand rate over 75% is Pedro. 79% and 80% are unsustainable rates, especially for Carp and Wainwright. I will say that with an extremely high degree of confidence.

Sanchez straight up seems a bit ridiculous, but you could structure a deal around that basis

Kevin, I was thinking of this situation the other day, and specifically 2 cases …

[1] In 2001, Curt Schilling led the league in HR allowed, but it didn;t really matter because a high % of them were solo shots because he didn;t walk many guys (1.4/9).

[2] In 1985, John Tudor, had a statistically great season by not striking many guys out (5.5/9) and by “pitching to contact” (not that I subscribe to the PTC idea), namely by living on the outside corner and allowing batters to pull ground balls to the best left side of the IF in MLB, and give up fly balls to one of the speediest OF’s, possibly ever.

One could point to Tudor’s season and say “Anybody could do that (21-8, 1.93) with THAT defense, duh!” … yet for some reason, none of the other 4 starters on STL thought to do that. There is *something* to be said for “pitching to your team’s strengths”, as being a key member of the team. I don;t understand the NEED some have for completely isolating a pitcher’s performance from what the team does as a whole. What matters most is how pitcher and team work together to win.