What the Padres Should Do
Overview
I’ve held off on posting this one, because this is probably the most complicated decision any front office has to make this summer. The Padres are in first place and are tied with the Braves for the best record in the National League. They have a 2 1/2 game lead over the second place Dodgers, so even if they struggle in July, they should be close to the top of the division by month’s end. So, this should be pretty easy, right?
Buy or Sell
It isn’t that easy. There are plenty of reasons to think that San Diego can’t keep this up, as their success has leaned heavily on guys who are likely playing over their heads. Their starting rotation has a 3.37 ERA, second lowest in baseball, but their FIP of 4.00 is just 10th best in the game. Yes, some of that is good defense, but a bigger part of their run prevention has been leaving runners on base. Their starters have a 77.7% LOB% – again, the highest in baseball.
That’s just not going to last. In most years, no rotation is able to post a full year LOB% of higher than about 75 percent, and while that may seem like a small drop, it doesn’t take much of a change in performance with men on base to make a large impact on wins and losses. The Padres need to expect their current players to produce worse results over the rest of the year, and that complicates what they should do.
Is it worth sacrificing future talent to make a run that may not materialize anyway, especially for a team that is widely expected to trade Adrian Gonzalez this winter? Or, do they owe it to their fan base to make a run at this thing while they still have their star first baseman?
I don’t know. I don’t envy Jed Hoyer, that’s for sure. This is a tough decision to make. You want to take advantage of every chance your team gives you to play in October, but at the same time, the Padres don’t have a large enough margin for error to sacrifice young talent unless they’re sure they can continue to win. And, given how the team is winning games, it’s tough to have that confidence.
It’s a good thing that the deadline isn’t July 2nd, so he has another month to gather information and figure out which way he should go. But, I have a feeling that this may not be an easier decision then than it is now, and it’s probably the hardest call any GM is going to have to make in 2010.
On The Farm
Their farm system has some good pieces, though most of it is several years from the majors. You can be sure that the Padres won’t be moving guys like Donovon Tate or Simon Castro, but they have some interesting secondary prospects who could go in a move that significantly upgraded the team. It’s just tough to see the Padres trading too much out of the farm, given that they’re still somewhat in rebuilding mode.
Budget
Unbelievably, the Padres have $1.1 million in committed money for 2011, and that entire sum represents buyouts of team options – one for Jon Garland and one for Yorvit Torrealba. They hold one on Adrian Gonzalez that will obviously be picked up, but he could very easily be traded this winter. Most of the rest of the roster is either arbitration eligible (Heath Bell, Mike Adams, Scott Hairston) or under club control, meaning that they’ll make something close to the league minimum next year.
So, while the Padres don’t have a large budget, they should have some money to play with, simply because they haven’t spent any of next year’s budget yet. They won’t be players for Roy Oswalt, you wouldn’t think, but they may be able to afford to take on some 2011 money if it helps get them a player who can help them win now and in the future.
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Has an analysis ever been done that shows a correlation between number of wins (or percentage thereof) and each 1% of LOB percentage?
I don’t know of one, but it doesn’t seem to me like it would reveal very much. The problem is that OBP is as much a factor as LOB and LOB leaves that out. Then you have the fact that defense is only half the battle. LOB -> RA would be much better, but really there’s no reason to expect LOB to be an especially good metric. Moreover, it’s not a very projectible metric (observed LOB doesn’t correlate well with unobserved LOB), so I don’t see the point.
Really well written article! I for one am in favor of the Padres adding a piece and trying to make the playoffs this year. I don’t see any other team in the NL West being that great of a threat and the team is dying for support from their fan base. I think they should make a mild acquisition and try to go for it this season and then pull a “Marlins” in the offseason and sell off.
They could go after a couple of different Royals players such as David DeJesus, Scott Pods, Jose Guillen, or Mike Aviles. All of these guys (to varying degrees) would help them this year, and none of them would be huge commitments next year. Could look at moving pieces like Poreda, Forsythe, or Luebke.
http://www.royalstalk.com/forums/content/finding-trade-partners-san-diego-166/
DeJesus is the only one of those that I would consider a realistic option… seems like Podsednik and Guillen are already starting to fade, and I don’t think Guillen’s personality fits in the Clubhouse. Aviles probably doesn’t play over Eckstein or Cabrera. Alex Gordon is a more likely target than those other three…
Padres should not sell / trade Adrian Gonzalez. Their chances of making the playoffs (crapshoot) are too high to sell. Even if AG walks at the end of the year, the Padres atleast get the high draft picks for him.
vr, Xeifrank
I didn’t realize there was a club option in 2011. More reason to keep him for 2010. Make the trade in 2011 if the team sucks.
But Gonzalez’s value goes down the closer you get to his free agency. Think about what the Rangers got for Teixeira vs what the Braves got.
True his value goes down, but when was the last time the Padres had such a good shot at making the playoffs? If they were four or five games out of the last playoff spot, then yes I’d probably say trade him, but they have a 2-1/2 game lead on the Dodgers and 2 game lead over the current WC team. They can still trade him next year and get a decent (though not as good as now) return. Just makes little to no sense to trade your only super star player when you are in such a good position to make the playoffs.
as a suffering Padres fan I think the Padres should…
Add a hitter or two hopefully in the Jon Garland mold (league average, cheap but good enough to seriously help the playoff chances).
Compete this year–the Padres may expect some regression but they’ve underperformed their run differential this year (albeit by one game…). They’re fifth in the MLB in run differential behind…Tampa Bay, New York, Texas(!) and Boston. Even if we assumed that the pitching staff should have given up 10% more runs, they’d still be leading the NL West in run differential.
I understand that pythagorean records don’t actually count but it is an indication of the talent on the team. The bats are a little below league average but the pitching is far and away the best in the majors. (The Padres are 19 runs away from being a league average hitting club and 22 runs from the next best pitching club, St. Louis).
Basically, what I’m saying is that even with regression, the team is talented enough to win the division this year. With Adrian locked up for at least next year, it allows the team to shop him over the winter or at next years deadline. Its pretty clear to me that they need to be buyers. Gonzalez will still be worth a haul over the winter or even next summer.
Did anyone else read Marchman’s column at SI.com about essentially the same thing?
“pitching is far and away the best in the majors. (”
Someone doesn’t understand park effects.
Pads have the best FIP and xFIP
And ERA and runs against.
Plus, park effects don’t really affect run differential, do they?
“Pads have the best FIP and xFIP”
So? Its been shown repeatedly that Park Effects affect stikeouts and walks.
I demand a citation on that one, Rich.
Andy S: statcorner.com has park effects on their site and it include R/L splits. Parks that depress HR tend also to inflate Ks; it’s difficult to test, but the usual explanation is that pitchers in Safeco and Petco are more aggressive throwing strikes because there’s less danger of a HR when the ball goes into play.
Petco, by the way, has K-effect of about 8% more Ks than other parks.
Nevertheless, I think that despite the natural tendency to attribute Padres pitchers outcomes to their park, they really do have one of the best pitching staff in baseball right now. There’s no denying that they have a 47% GB rate, that their 7.8K/9 cannot be solely attributed to their home park, and that they pound the zone with a 3.16 BB/9. While their park may help, there’s just no doubt that that Padres have good pitchers. Maybe not really the best in baseball, after all, they don’t face the level of competition that AL East pitchers face, but they’re a strong pitching team.
Philosofool:
I just can’t imagine the size of the variation, once factoring out noise, is that big. But I could be wrong; I’ll check. Still, my instinct is that most of it is noise.
Best road ERA…. hmmmm…. someone doesn’t understand park effects?
Parks seem to have effects on a lot of things you wouldn’t expect. (GB/FB ratio?) And yeah, Petco would seem to be one of the three best parks in the majors to get a K (and it’ll probably move up to #2 behind Safeco when the Marlins move).
I assume you mean August 2nd is the trade deadline? Because July 2nd is today.
Nevermind misread it as “It’s a good thing the trade deadline IS July 2nd” instead of isn’t.
Agreed that this is the hardest club to figure.
I think they’ll probably take a middle road. They’ll try to add a complimentary piece or two without giving up anything major, and hope for the best.
Why not just call this article:
“The Padres could do a bunch of things, but I’m not going to comment on what they should do”
?
Because it’s part of a series with this title, and a legitimate answer is “I don’t know, because there are a lot of finely-balanced factors to consider” — especially when the considerations that ultimately tip the balance (ownership’s desires and plans) may only be known within the blackbox of the front office. It would be a cop-out if every article amounted to that, but it’s certainly fair if a single one does.
Honestly, we are treated to whiny bitching whenever Cameron makes a strong statement of his opinion based on the data available, and apparently we also have to read it when he doesn’t.
The Padres have the lowest FIP and xFIP of any pitching staff in the majors. The bullpen does matter, not just the starting rotation. They also have the highest Defensive Runs Saved score and the highest team UZR/150 in the majors.
If they were a larger market team, the answer would clearly be to buy, buy, buy and improve the offense sooner rather than later. Since they’re a small market team, it’s less clear, but not as murky as you’re making it sound. I certainly wouldn’t sell.
When else are the Pads going to have a chance like this?
I say buy, but reasonably.
DeJesus can only play for one team. What could factor in is what COL, LAD, and SFG does.
The fact this team has way over performed well above and beyond what anyone dreamed of, you can buy or stay pat in their situation. You can always say we stayed with what was working. Lets face it, this team is rebuilding and they plan on trading Adrian. I would not buy much but I would keep Adrian for the rest of the year. Its not going to hurt his trade value that much, it may improve if he kills it in the playoffs.
Doesn’t Chris Young return at the end of the month?
It will be quite amazing if Chris Young ever pitches another inning for the Padres.
Agreed. The return of Tim Stauffer should be a boost though. Both in the bullpen and potentially a couple of spot starts.
He might pitch less innings than Josh Wilson before getting hurt again. In fact, I’d bet on it. Poor guy.
hey, the 2001 diamondbacks beat the yanks without a real team and only 2 pitchers, and they played those games in chase field and yankee stadium. i’m sure a few decent pitchers in petco could win like, 4 WS in a row
Didn’t one of the articles in this series have the title worded “What Should Team X Do?” instead of “What Team X Should Do.” ? That made a lot more sense.
Who is Team X and are they finally going to sign anybody represented by Boras? :)
And I actually prefer the second way. It states the team immediately, after which I stop reading the rest of the headline entirely since I have the gist of it.
Latos and LeBlanc will be shut down sooner than later. Richard will probably be fine inning wise, being the physical behemoth he is, but you never know what can happen. There really aren’t any worthwhile bats to be had that would play well in PetCo, aside from maybe DeJesus. Pads should be buyers of pitching… and I would definitely dangle Bell out there to maximize the return.
I doubt LeBlanc gets shut down….I might be wrong, but he probably has significantly more professional innings in the minors than Latos… I think Latos gets shutdown for late July and August (or maybe starts pitching every 10th day alternating with Stauffer). My guess is they will want him for September and the playoffs (if they make it)…
I agree that LeBlanc probably doesn’t get shut down. He has thrown 149, 160, and 167 innings the last three years. Plus he’s only at 80 innings so far this year. How Latos is handled will be very interesting to watch.
Yeah Wade won’t be shut down. Neither will Richard. They’ve both been throwing 150+ professional innings for several years, they will be fine.
Hoyer said on the radio yesterday that Latos will be given a long rest, and the goal is to have him pitching all through September and (hopefully) beyond.
What they should do is pay Adrian Gonzalez and build around him and the young pitchers… they have a relatively new partially publicly-financed stadium and are pretty much the only game in town April-September in the 8th largest city in the US. It is not a small market. Hopefully the new management can figure out how to make it work.
sooo.. Dave didn’t answer the question. He should have just wrote ” It depends” and called it a day
But instead he told us a bit about why it depends and what it depends on, so it’s actually an informative article.
“But Gonzalez’s value goes down the closer you get to his free agency. Think about what the Rangers got for Teixeira vs what the Braves got.”
That is not a fair comparison, Wren is a dolt.
The Padres pitching is pretty legit. They’re bullpen is exceptionally good. Still, the offense is terrible. What they really need was Blanks to play well this year. Unless they figure out a way to get a quality bat with some pop, I think they’ll finish in 1st or 2nd, but not be able to do anything in the playoffs.
Um so what should the Padres do? I think you forgot to post that part of the article.
I think the Pads should have some sort of “Attendance Fund Raiser Drive.” Go out and say to the fans: “We’ll go out and add X amount of salary if N number of fans show up at the park over the next 3 weeks.” If my local team was contending and they put it out like that, I’d make sure to get to the park at least one extra time.
We’ll see what happens on this road trip, but the Pads will most likely hit the ASB on pace for a 96-99 win season. While they are right at their Pythagorean numbers, BP’s adjusted wins has them about 4-5 games over their “3rd order” wins. But I have seen that statistic be pretty sticky. Teams that play above their 3rd order, tend to stay there. I recall LAA a having +8 for most the season, same with Arizona the year they won with the negative run differential. So, they are not smoke and mirrors.
I don’t think you can toss away a season where the team has led from April to the ASB. If you are a small market team, the baseball gods do not toss you many seasons in a decade where you a have a legit shot at making the post season. To toss it away in favor of trading your best player for good prospects is crazy. And there are really only a handful of potential buyers for AGon and they are not dumb. They will not get the boatload of prospects.
I am disappointed Hoyer did not sign Burrell, and said so at the time. Many at GLB dismissed him because of his defense, but he was so hitting that came essentially free (300k contract). Seemed like a near costless option. If his D sinks his bat, OK, bench him, let him go, etc. I he hits like he is in SF, you are getting some production out of LF.
I am also disappointed that Hoyer did not add any depth in offense in the off-season. A few low cost, viable veterans on 1-2 year contracts probably would have cost 4-9m, and saved us from having to trade any prospects. I will withhold judgment on Hoyer’s year-to-year management until after the deadline. I will have to withhold judgement on his drafting for many years, but I have not been that impressed with the former yet.
the padres need a bat if they want to win the division. there is no way we will be able to keep up with the Dodgers and Rockies. pitching can only take us so far. we cant win if we don’t hit. Adam Dunn is what we need, someone like that would improve our line up tremendously and i guarantee if we got him we would win the division.