What the St. Louis Cardinals Should Do
Overview
Not too many expected much of a race in the NL Central this season, but lo and behold, on July 20th, the St. Louis Cardinals have only a half game lead over the Cincinnati Reds, and it’s taken a six game winning streak to claim the lead. The Cardinals are still probably the most talented team in the division and arguably in the entire National League, but they’re in for a fight down the stretch, especially given how easy (warning: ESPN insider link) the Reds schedule is in the second half.
Buy or Sell
The Cardinals are clearly buyers, and there are a few clear positions to upgrade: starting pitching, shorstop, and depending on the timetable for David Freese‘s return from the DL, second base, as Freese’s return would allow Felipe Lopez to shift from third base to second base.
The most obvious and the most pressing need is at starting pitcher, as the Cardinals rotation currently contains Blake Hawksworth and Jeff Suppan, who have combined for a total of -0.3 WAR this season, and neither is projected to reach replacement level.
Essentially any starting pitcher on the market fits the Cardinals roster, ranging from Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook to Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren. Haren and Oswalt are both highly unlikely, but the addition of Carmona or Westbrook would be an improvement over Hawksworth or Suppan, and if the price is right, the Cardinals should move to add any of the available starting pitchers on the market.
The needs in the middle infield aren’t quite as pressing, as Skip Schumaker‘s performance at second base is likely to improve (.323 projected wOBA), as is Brendan Ryan‘s. Still, neither are more than an average player at this point, and the addition of Stephen Drew or a similar shortstop – if one is available – would both provide a big improvement to the starting lineup as well as the bench.
The Cardinals needs aren’t huge, though, as the additions of Ryan Ludwick, David Freese, and Brad Penny could be all the boost that St. Louis needs. I would still recommend the addition of another starting pitcher, but between Albert Pujols, Colby Rasmus, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright, and Chris Carpenter, there’s plenty of elite talent to go around on this team.
On The Farm
The Cardinals farm system is, quite frankly, pretty weak. The Cardinals ranked 30th in Beyond The Boxscore’s preseason farm system rankings, with only one prospect ranking in the top 95. That prospect is Shelby Miller, a right handed starter currently running 11.96 K/9 in A ball. 3B Zach Cox, the Cardinals first round pick, should be a huge addition to the farm system.
Budget
The Cardinals are going to need all the money they can have on hand in 2011, when Albert Pujols’s contract expires. As such, don’t expect the Cardinals to take on the contracts of Dan Haren or Roy Oswalt, or any other big time, multi-year contract. But the Cardinals don’t have any real albatrosses on hand and only four players due for arbitration raises in 2010 according to Cot’s Contracts, so one would assume that they could take on some cash for at least the 2011 season.
12
I find it hard to believe that “possibly the best team in the national league” could be 6 games under .500 on the road. I think the Cards are a Jaime-Garcia-return-back-to-Earth-2nd-Half away from fading into 2nd place.
Why is that so hard to believe? Do you know how many NL teams have a winning road record? As of this morning, exactly 1.
The Cardinals have the 9th best road record in the NL, better than 7 teams, and that includes Houston, Washington, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Arizona. They have not been a good road team.
The Cardinals are 2-10 on the road versus the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Rockies. They usually stink out west and have no more road games against those teams.
Most talented does not mean best, 5 average starting pitchers with a decent lineup can be a “good” team but doesn’t have near the talent that the Cardinals have in Wainwright and Carpenter alone, plus a so far so outstanding rookie campaign from Garcia.
The Braves have the same number of road losses (and two more road wins) than the Cards. I guess they’re going to fade away in the 2nd half by virtue of having a poor record over ~50 games too…
With all of the talk regarding how thin the Cardinals’ farm system is, I am surprised at how little attention is paid to the strength of the prospect class that is already in St. Louis. Jon Jay, Allen Craig, and David Freese are all raw talents that have shown brilliant bats in AAA and with limited stints in the NL Central. Likewise (to a lesser extent) Tyler Greene, Mitchell Boggs, Hawksworth, Salas, and Ottavino have proven (somewhat) useful. Plenty of teams could use a useful position player or bullpen help. At least 2 of those last 5 names will be on an opening day roster that isn’t St. Louis next year.
This is an important point. One reason (to be sure, not the only one) why the team’s farm system looks weak is the large number of farm-team products who’ve reached the Show in the last couple of years. A rookie or one-year “veteran” of the majors is not a dramatically less attractive piece of trade bait than if the same player is at AA or AAA, and the team’s depth of young talent in the major-league outfield and bullpen should make some deals possible — although the faithful will howl at trading some of that talent away.
Incidentally, every one of the Cardinals’ minor-league teams is above .500 at this writing, either for the whole season or (in leagues that reset the records at the midpoint) for the nascent second half. I know that minor-league team records aren’t the best indicator of the strength of a farm system, but I’m just sayin’.
The Cards farm system is in fine shape, it just projects no real impact players after Jay & Craig for another year. Lance Lynn & Daniel Descalso are probably major league contributors next season.
Bottom line: the Cards can and should win the division with what they already have. If they are able to add a better starter, however, there is no question they will win
What should the Cardinals do?
2 words: Kick. Ass.
Heh Heh.
What the Cards should do is what they always do, be on the constant search for short-term lightning in a bottle from their organizational players. This year it looks like Jon Jay with new sidekick Allen Craig could be that guy(s). In the past it’s been Bo Ryan, Stavinoha, and the like … guys that come up, have a really good 10 games and then disappear.
I don’t think we need a 3B. I think Schu can remain at 2B, and Lopez is doing well at 3B in Freese’s absence. I’m not the biggest fan of it, but it seems to work short-term.
————————————
Also, the problem with the Cardinals farm system is that [1] good players that were blocked by a HoF’er (Barton, Wallace, etc) were traded to obtain other good parts, and [2] their recent minor league talent is now rocking in MLB (Rasmus, Garcia, Hawks, Motte, etc). It would be nice if another guy, like Boggs, Walters would pan out to be league average to lessen the burden of Lohse.
Lohse is probably a borderline albatross contract, unless he recovers quickly from his forearm difficulties.
He only has 2 years left on his contract at about 10 million per. That’s not an albatross.
Not to mention he was dealing with a rare injury that unquestionably affected his performance. Now with surgery, hopefully he can pitch to his relative capability
He has posted 1.6 WAR last year and this year combined and received 16 or 17 million dollars. He is owed about 23-24 mil the next 2 years. He has 2 seasons above 3WAR in his career. He is 32 next year and is coming back from an ailment in his pitching arm that had few precedents among major league pitchers, so his likelihood of recovery is very difficult to forecast. It’s not a crippling contract, I suppose, and although I felt like Mo was overpaying I could see his logic at the time.
It is possible that I do not understand the definition of “albatross contract”. However, given that he is suffering from a potentially serious injury with few, if any, precedents that keeps him from playing and possibly ever recovering and that even if he did recover completely and pitch as well as he has in his two best seasons the Cardinals would still only be getting about market value, his contract seems pretty “albatrossian” to me. Could we trade him for anything whatsoever, besides possibly another bad contract? If that is true, doesn’t that make him at least a “borderline albatross” like I said?
I hope you are right and that he recovers and pitches well.
What should your face do?
I WAS BORN IN ST.LOUIS AND WHEN EVER THEY COME TO PLAY THE CUBS I GET UPSET WHEN THEY LOSE TO THE CUBS. I HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL YEAR LONG THAT THE CARDINALS ARE HAVING PROBLEMS HOLDING THAT # ONE SPOT DOWN IS BECAUSE YOU DON’t ….LIKE MOST CLUBS HAVE NOT FOUND A SPOT FOR SOME AFRO-AMERICANS ON YOUR STARTING LINE UP AND REMEMBER THAT HISPANICS ARE GOOD BUT THER’RE NOT THE ONES WHO WAS BORN HERE OR THEIR FATHERS FOUGHT TO SAVE THIS COUNTRY FOR YEARS …SO DO THE RIGHT THING AND GET SOME AFRO-AMERICANS ON THAT TEAM/
I’M NOT GOING TO RETYPE ALL THAT MESSAGE …WHEN ARE YOU GOING TO GET SOME AFRO-AMERICANS IN YOUR STARTING LINE UP ..ITS GOOD TO HAVE HISPANICS AND SVE MONEY BUT REMEMBER THAT AFRO-AMERICANS PARENTS FOUGHT FOR YEARS TO SAVES THIS COUNTRY AND ITS A SHAME THAT A CITY LIKE ST. LOUIS DON’T HAVE ANY. BY THE WAY …IWAS BORN THERE….PLEASE STOP LOSING AND START WINNING BEAT THE CUBS AND MAKE ME YAPPY.
You seem pretty yappy already Paul…
Cardinals are lousy! They have some poor players. Shoemaker is no second baseman…Lopez is too small to be a third baseman. The main players are lazy…McGuire is not much of hitting coach, and Duncan makes a lot of mistakes.
The way to win is have a team meeting, put some pressure on players to perform, quite trying to out guess others…put players out there and if tell them if they dont perform and produce they are out of here…spend some money and get some players with good attitudes and hard workers…Molina is lazy, and McGuire needs to quite trying to teach the players to hit like him. Every pitch isn’t a home run…how about a simple hit…remember pete rose, lou brock, stan the man, just make contact and get the ball out there…Mac only knows one swing and the players are struggling…