What to Think of Lohse?
One of the most difficult aspects in the world of analyzing baseball players involves separating our perception of a player from his actual true talent level. Early last season, Cliff Lee’s previously established talent level prevented many from believing that he could produce such an incredible season. After the small sample of dominance in April fans questioned if Lee was “for real.” As May came to its close fans began to hop aboard his bandwagon. Following several more starts in June people became convinced that the lanky lefty had in fact broken through a plateau and become a different pitcher. Lee’s is an extreme example but Kyle Lohse had a very similar season.
After essentially posting league average numbers since 2002, Lohse put up 2.4 wins in 2007, splitting time with the Reds and Phillies, in two very homer-happy stadiums. He signed a 1-yr/$4 mil contract with the Cardinals in the off-season and became the low-risk bargain of the year by putting up 3.1 wins. Following the success, the Cardinals must have been convinced that Lohse, too, was “for real” and inked him a much-ridiculed four-year extension.
Just like Lee, fans struggled to believe that a pitcher previously considered to be average at best could somehow become so effective. Entering this season most anticipated a regression from Lohse towards the production levels of 2002-06, numbers that certainly merited his spot on a roster but did not necessarily call for an average annual value of $10+ mil per season.
Entering today’s action, Lohse had made three starts and amassed 21 innings, scattering 13 hits, just one of which left the yard. Never a dominant strikeout pitcher, his raw total of 12 and rate of 5.14 were hardly earth-shattering but he had only issued three free passes to the tune of a Maddux-esque 1.29 BB/9. All told, Lohse boasted a 2.57 ERA and 3.14 FIP, good enough for 0.6 wins after a mere three weeks.
In a 12-8 win against the Mets earlier today, Lohse surrendered just one earned run over five innings of work, another quality outing in which he lowered the earned run rate to just 2.42. Lohse likely would have continued to pitch past the fifth however he sustained an injury covering first base and is going to undergo an MRI to see where he stands. Granted, he has only made four starts this season, but this is beginning to have a familiar feel, namely in that there are probably plenty of fans wondering if last season plus this April is enough to prove that Lohse has become a different and much more effective pitcher.
One way to find out is to check out his pre-season projections as they are derived primarily from weighting data from the previous seasons. Before his stellar 2008 campaign, Lohse’s previous three FIPs were 5.06, 4.55, 4.34. He clearly displayed signs of improvement in the controllable skills department but a crude projection for 2008 would call for a mark somewhere in the 4.40-4.50 range.
After 33 starts and 200 innings at a 3.89 FIP, Lohse projected to right around 4.14 entering this season. His season was not incredible enough to prove to the systems that he had become a true talent +3.1 win pitcher but rather somewhere in the +2.5 to +2.8 wins vicinity. I’d like to toss this out there to anyone interested in throwing in their opinions, but at what point will you consider Lohse to legitimately be a very good pitcher if he continues to keep up his current performance level?
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When he’s not doing against the Pirates and the Astros. His start against the Cubs has been added to Merriam-Webster as an example of “meh.”
I’ve heard that Lohse has changed his repertoire and if so I think that plus maybe a more concrete pitching plan has increased his win value. I just wish pitch fx was invented and installed earlier so that we could compare how he’s changed pitching-wise.
The low BB/9 after 3 games has helped convince me that he will remain above his 2002-2006 win value mark. 4 games with good peripherals especially walks makes me inclined to believe in his new-found success
When he attacks the bottom of the strike zone, Lohse is and has been a good pitcher. Obviously he isn’t going to deviate from that while he’s got Duncan for a pitching coach, so I expect his xFIP to remain in the low 4s.
I just wish there were a version of FIP that accounted for balking a run.
The key is always whether there is something intrinsically different in the skill set.
A good example is J.J. Putz learning a how to throw a split from Eddie Guardado. Without the split Putz was a decent, flame-throwing setup reliever. Acquiring the split elevated him to a new level.
At the time there was a similar discussion here about whether Putz’s performance was real or a fluke. Matthew Caruth argued (correctly) that the Putz was not the same pitcher he was previously.
I believe these types of situations are prime illustrations of the importance of blending numerical analysis and scouting observations. If there is a change in skill set it should be confirmend in measures of performance. Similarly, if there is a change in numerical results we should expect observational differences. Unless the two agree, we should remain skeptical.
Normalize his FIP for HR/FB% (2.5 HRs for this season) and for something closer to his career BABIP (each increase of 18.56 in BABIP increases ERA by 1.31%) and his FIP goes up to 4.2.
Is 4.2 a good pitcher? If we are talking fantasy, that’s a rosterable pitcher for good matchups.
Can I answer after the MRI?
Every time I watched Kyle Lohse pitch in 2007, I would spend the entire game trying to figure out why he wasn’t getting better results. It drove me mad. His stuff looked great on TV and he had solid command of his entire repotoire. It just never seemed like he had a game plan – like he was just throwing whatever felt right, rather than setting up hitters for his 2nd a 3rd trip through the order. When he became a FA during the off-season, I was really hoping the Mariners would consider him.
I think all the critical pieces were there when Lohse arrived in St. Louis, but it’s obvious Dave Duncan has done a masterful job of piecing them all together.
Choo, felt the same way for his half-season on the Phillies. For whatever reason I had confidence whenever he was on the mound even though his bottom line numbers weren’t that great. I was disappointed the Phillies didn’t re-sign him especially when the asking price dropped so precipitously.
1 HR out of 29 fly balls seems pretty lucky to me, but I think he’s a capable middle of the rotation guy. I’d be pretty shocked to see him have an ERA in the low 3’s at the end of the season.
From 2002-2008, Lohse was worth ~17 wins in 7 season. That’s an average of 2.4 per year. Lohse is the same pitcher he’s always been. It’s just variance.
No, that is not the correct way to look at things. If a pitcher goes from 2.1 to 2.4 wins it isn’t a big deal. When he goes from 1.8 to 2.4 to 3.1 you have to question if something is different. If nothing can be found to be changed in his approach, repertoire, or pitch data, or even luck-based indicators THEN maybe it is flukey or variance, but to write it off as variance saying he’s a 2.4 win pitcher so if he is 1.8 wins one year he’ll be 3.1 the next is completely inaccurate.
I disagree. The streaks in this game are amazing and all it takes is one or two hot or cold streaks at the right or wrong time and it looks like a change of talent. Looking back with 20/20 hindsight at Kyle Lohse, it’s very likely that his talent level has always been the same, since 2002 at least. If you break his last six years into two sepearte three year runs, his totals are;
2003-2005-1.8,2.2,3.3=7.3 total
2006-2008-1.6,2.4,3.1=7.1 total
His winrate as a starter over those two time frames are close enough that it’s likely just variance making the difference. If you break it into three two year runs, his 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 are higher than 2005-2006, but again, not something you’d necessarily attribute to a change of talent, especially knowing what we know now.
You’re not grasping what I’m saying, which is that you COULD be correct but to automatically jump to a conclusion is irresponsible analysis. It very well could be variance and he is the same pitcher, but that conclusion should not be reached until we acknowledge that it is quite possible Lohse became a different pitcher, incorporated something else in his repertoire, changed his approach, etc.
I can’t believe I busted out the spreadsheet for Kyle Lohse. Here’s his RAR/9 as a starter since 2002;
2002-1.13
2003-1.51
2004-0.91
2005-1.16
2006-1.14
2007-1.11
2008-1.38
Here’s the three years ending;
2004-1.19
2005-1.20
2006-1.06
2007-1.14
2008-1.23
It’s possible Lohse could have become a different pitcher, it’s just overwhelmingly probable that he’s the same guy going through peaks and valleys, if you can even call it that. It wouldn’t surprise me if Lohse has been one of the most consistant pitchers over this time frame. Now Cliff Lee, there is a guy who had some sort of change in talent.
One other question I have is, how would those numbers look if we used xFIP instead of FIP? Lohse’s HR/FB looked fairly stable, esecially during his time in Minnesota, but I still imagine using xFIP would level things out even more.
just from watching that game against the mets, he was getting hit HARD. a lot of at’em balls.