Comments on: What to Think of Lohse? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 20:36:47 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: rwperu34 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73282 rwperu34 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 20:16:40 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73282 One other question I have is, how would those numbers look if we used xFIP instead of FIP? Lohse's HR/FB looked fairly stable, esecially during his time in Minnesota, but I still imagine using xFIP would level things out even more. One other question I have is, how would those numbers look if we used xFIP instead of FIP? Lohse’s HR/FB looked fairly stable, esecially during his time in Minnesota, but I still imagine using xFIP would level things out even more.

]]> By: rwperu34 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73274 rwperu34 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 19:40:07 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73274 I can't believe I busted out the spreadsheet for Kyle Lohse. Here's his RAR/9 as a starter since 2002; 2002-1.13 2003-1.51 2004-0.91 2005-1.16 2006-1.14 2007-1.11 2008-1.38 Here's the three years ending; 2004-1.19 2005-1.20 2006-1.06 2007-1.14 2008-1.23 It's possible Lohse could have become a different pitcher, it's just overwhelmingly probable that he's the same guy going through peaks and valleys, if you can even call it that. It wouldn't surprise me if Lohse has been one of the most consistant pitchers over this time frame. Now Cliff Lee, there is a guy who had some sort of change in talent. I can’t believe I busted out the spreadsheet for Kyle Lohse. Here’s his RAR/9 as a starter since 2002;

2002-1.13
2003-1.51
2004-0.91
2005-1.16
2006-1.14
2007-1.11
2008-1.38

Here’s the three years ending;
2004-1.19
2005-1.20
2006-1.06
2007-1.14
2008-1.23

It’s possible Lohse could have become a different pitcher, it’s just overwhelmingly probable that he’s the same guy going through peaks and valleys, if you can even call it that. It wouldn’t surprise me if Lohse has been one of the most consistant pitchers over this time frame. Now Cliff Lee, there is a guy who had some sort of change in talent.

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73273 Eric Seidman Fri, 24 Apr 2009 19:23:59 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73273 You're not grasping what I'm saying, which is that you COULD be correct but to automatically jump to a conclusion is irresponsible analysis. It very well could be variance and he is the same pitcher, but that conclusion should not be reached until we acknowledge that it is quite possible Lohse became a different pitcher, incorporated something else in his repertoire, changed his approach, etc. You’re not grasping what I’m saying, which is that you COULD be correct but to automatically jump to a conclusion is irresponsible analysis. It very well could be variance and he is the same pitcher, but that conclusion should not be reached until we acknowledge that it is quite possible Lohse became a different pitcher, incorporated something else in his repertoire, changed his approach, etc.

]]> By: rwperu34 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73263 rwperu34 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 18:34:51 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73263 I disagree. The streaks in this game are amazing and all it takes is one or two hot or cold streaks at the right or wrong time and it looks like a change of talent. Looking back with 20/20 hindsight at Kyle Lohse, it's very likely that his talent level has always been the same, since 2002 at least. If you break his last six years into two sepearte three year runs, his totals are; 2003-2005-1.8,2.2,3.3=7.3 total 2006-2008-1.6,2.4,3.1=7.1 total His winrate as a starter over those two time frames are close enough that it's likely just variance making the difference. If you break it into three two year runs, his 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 are higher than 2005-2006, but again, not something you'd necessarily attribute to a change of talent, especially knowing what we know now. I disagree. The streaks in this game are amazing and all it takes is one or two hot or cold streaks at the right or wrong time and it looks like a change of talent. Looking back with 20/20 hindsight at Kyle Lohse, it’s very likely that his talent level has always been the same, since 2002 at least. If you break his last six years into two sepearte three year runs, his totals are;

2003-2005-1.8,2.2,3.3=7.3 total
2006-2008-1.6,2.4,3.1=7.1 total

His winrate as a starter over those two time frames are close enough that it’s likely just variance making the difference. If you break it into three two year runs, his 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 are higher than 2005-2006, but again, not something you’d necessarily attribute to a change of talent, especially knowing what we know now.

]]> By: big baby http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73243 big baby Fri, 24 Apr 2009 16:38:28 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73243 just from watching that game against the mets, he was getting hit HARD. a lot of at'em balls. just from watching that game against the mets, he was getting hit HARD. a lot of at’em balls.

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73231 Eric Seidman Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:05:39 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73231 Choo, felt the same way for his half-season on the Phillies. For whatever reason I had confidence whenever he was on the mound even though his bottom line numbers weren't that great. I was disappointed the Phillies didn't re-sign him especially when the asking price dropped so precipitously. Choo, felt the same way for his half-season on the Phillies. For whatever reason I had confidence whenever he was on the mound even though his bottom line numbers weren’t that great. I was disappointed the Phillies didn’t re-sign him especially when the asking price dropped so precipitously.

]]> By: Eric Seidman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73230 Eric Seidman Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:04:43 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73230 No, that is not the correct way to look at things. If a pitcher goes from 2.1 to 2.4 wins it isn't a big deal. When he goes from 1.8 to 2.4 to 3.1 you have to question if something is different. If nothing can be found to be changed in his approach, repertoire, or pitch data, or even luck-based indicators THEN maybe it is flukey or variance, but to write it off as variance saying he's a 2.4 win pitcher so if he is 1.8 wins one year he'll be 3.1 the next is completely inaccurate. No, that is not the correct way to look at things. If a pitcher goes from 2.1 to 2.4 wins it isn’t a big deal. When he goes from 1.8 to 2.4 to 3.1 you have to question if something is different. If nothing can be found to be changed in his approach, repertoire, or pitch data, or even luck-based indicators THEN maybe it is flukey or variance, but to write it off as variance saying he’s a 2.4 win pitcher so if he is 1.8 wins one year he’ll be 3.1 the next is completely inaccurate.

]]> By: rwperu34 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73228 rwperu34 Fri, 24 Apr 2009 14:58:40 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73228 From 2002-2008, Lohse was worth ~17 wins in 7 season. That's an average of 2.4 per year. Lohse is the same pitcher he's always been. It's just variance. From 2002-2008, Lohse was worth ~17 wins in 7 season. That’s an average of 2.4 per year. Lohse is the same pitcher he’s always been. It’s just variance.

]]> By: don http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73219 don Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:35:17 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73219 1 HR out of 29 fly balls seems pretty lucky to me, but I think he's a capable middle of the rotation guy. I'd be pretty shocked to see him have an ERA in the low 3's at the end of the season. 1 HR out of 29 fly balls seems pretty lucky to me, but I think he’s a capable middle of the rotation guy. I’d be pretty shocked to see him have an ERA in the low 3′s at the end of the season.

]]> By: Choo http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-to-think-of-lohse/#comment-73198 Choo Fri, 24 Apr 2009 06:53:20 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=4506#comment-73198 Every time I watched Kyle Lohse pitch in 2007, I would spend the entire game trying to figure out why he wasn’t getting better results. It drove me mad. His stuff looked great on TV and he had solid command of his entire repotoire. It just never seemed like he had a game plan - like he was just throwing whatever felt right, rather than setting up hitters for his 2nd a 3rd trip through the order. When he became a FA during the off-season, I was really hoping the Mariners would consider him. I think all the critical pieces were there when Lohse arrived in St. Louis, but it's obvious Dave Duncan has done a masterful job of piecing them all together. Every time I watched Kyle Lohse pitch in 2007, I would spend the entire game trying to figure out why he wasn’t getting better results. It drove me mad. His stuff looked great on TV and he had solid command of his entire repotoire. It just never seemed like he had a game plan – like he was just throwing whatever felt right, rather than setting up hitters for his 2nd a 3rd trip through the order. When he became a FA during the off-season, I was really hoping the Mariners would consider him.

I think all the critical pieces were there when Lohse arrived in St. Louis, but it’s obvious Dave Duncan has done a masterful job of piecing them all together.

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