Comments on: What We Learned In Week Five

By: Mr. Freckles

Mr. Freckles — Wed, 13 May 2009 15:50:52 +0000

It doesn’t matter which way you adjust the line. Weighting the plate appearances or adding x plate appearances against righties gives you the same results.

By: Jamie

Jamie — Wed, 13 May 2009 14:20:49 +0000

getting closer to my 30/30

By: don

don — Wed, 13 May 2009 02:25:48 +0000

In the 7th today Werth singled and then stole second, third, and home.

You don’t see that very often.

By: steve shane

steve shane — Tue, 12 May 2009 19:02:51 +0000

Mr Freckles,

I think the point that he was trying to make is that in 2008 werth probably had as many ABs vs LHP as you can expect over a full season, and that if you want to poject 2008 numbers over a full season, you need to use the numbers vs RHP for the remaining 150 +/- ABs, not simply multiply his overall numbers by a factor of around 1.3.

And I dont think its proper to just say the average NLer faced LHP X% of the time so thats the % we should use to calculate werth’s #s over a full season. Obviously someone, like werth, who crushes LHP, will have a % towards the lower end of the spectrum, and some like Ryan Howard, who probably only faces LHP relievers, would be towards the higher end of the spectrum.

By: Marlowe

Marlowe — Tue, 12 May 2009 16:43:15 +0000

If anyone deserves a “the” in front of their name, it’s the Pujols.

By: Mr. Heckles

Mr. Heckles — Tue, 12 May 2009 09:16:06 +0000

I’m not sure what you’re driving at. I already showed you what would happen to his numbers if you reapportion the percentage of plate appearances he received against pitchers of each handedness to reflect the league average. Barely a dent.

If you’d like to take half a win off his WAR based on the plate appearances you think he should have gotten, be my guest. He still had a great year.

By: Jason T

Jason T — Tue, 12 May 2009 01:09:12 +0000

‘to be the NEXT Pujols’…my bad.

By: Jason T

Jason T — Tue, 12 May 2009 01:08:10 +0000

Werth did indeed miss several starts early in the season, all vs. righties. These were spotty, not clustered together. Arroyo, Lincecum, Webb and Volquez are on that list, as are Redding, Fogg and Maine. As for July-September, Jayson Werth played nearly every day (seriously, I don’t think he took more than one game off).

Dave isn’t claiming Jayson Werth to be the Pujols (though I’m sure some commentators would make that accusation), but mearly that he’s a pretty damned good player. There’s no lack of really good righty hitters who hit worse against same handed pitchers than southpaws.

By: Tex

Tex — Tue, 12 May 2009 00:51:18 +0000

We also learned that all of baseball is on steroids.

And it is a sadness…

By: Jasyon Werth

Jasyon Werth — Mon, 11 May 2009 22:20:22 +0000

from BP 2008 analysis

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/werthja01.php

Wrist problems only shelved Werth for a month last year, an accomplishment given that the joint ruined his 2005 and caused him to miss all of 2006. When he played, he toasted lefties the way he had back in 2004, hitting .375/.467/.591 against them. He’s not the same hitter against righties, as he struck out in more than a third of his at-bats against them, but he did maintain his willingness to take a walk against the same-handed. This year, Werth will form a platoon with Geoff Jenkins, assuming he can stay off the DL. That caveat would be gratuitous with a lot of players, but in Werth’s case it’s absolutely necessary.

I dont have the time or the desire to break down werth’s 2008 season, but i gaurentee you that 95% of the 31 games he didnt start (not counting his DL stint) were against righties. In about half of those games, he did get a PH AB, and 95% of those were probably against LHP. But to completely ignore those facts is just ludacrous.

Im not saying Werth is not good, all Im saying is in 2008, and earlier in his career, Werth is not good vs RHP, and playing full time will cause his numbers to dip bc he was facing so many LHP when he didnt play full time.