Comments on: When WPA Attacks

By: Aiden

Aiden — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 02:51:30 +0000

I remember calculating this exact thing right after the game, it was treated as a normal game then. But you may be right, it might only be reduced to a screenshot.

And I just realized, wouldn’t just taking the WPA of the error play not be enough, wouldn’t you need to find the difference between that and what the WPA would have been if he made the play?

By: dan

dan — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 20:04:22 +0000

lookatthosetwins–

The ASG isn’t saved in the same place as the regular season games. Dave made a post with a screenshot of the game WE charts, but I don’t believe he included the play log in that post.

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:00:22 +0000

You know what Aiden, that sounds just nerdy enough for me to do it! Now, fangraphs guys, where are the all star games?

By: Aiden

Aiden — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 05:56:07 +0000

But you can go back into the play log and add in the WPA for the plays he made errors on, even though it would go to the batter in the database. Just for fun, mostly.

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 04:53:32 +0000

Uggla wouldn’t really show up as bad as he was because errors don’t show up on your WPA.

By: Aiden

Aiden — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 04:50:22 +0000

This is cool stuff, I can’t wait to see the most extreme games ever.

Kind of O/T – I read this and I was thinking of Dan Uggla’s performance in the ASG this year, but I can’t seem to find the game on the site. Is there any way to? I remember following it live on here. Thanks.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 03:35:53 +0000

My basic explanation of WPA to non-statheads essentially goes like this:

People have calculated the probability of a team winning a game in every single situation, based on actual historical data. Every time a batter or pitcher does something, it has an effect on the probability. Over the course of a game, and a season, it adds up, and you can see how many wins a player contributed to his team.

It is pretty easy to explain, and very logical to someone who isn’t directly involved with stats. I think it just has that new-agey feel to its title that turns people off initially.

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 03:28:01 +0000

Trying to figure out how Brantly managed a -1.09 in 1/3 of an inning also took me a while but I got it.
On the intro to this article – I’ve found WPA to be the easiest to explain to people unfamiliar with baseball statistics outside of Batting average. I even explained it to my mom, and she at least pretended to understand. She had a little more trouble with wOBA… I wonder why.

By: Eric Seidman

Eric Seidman — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 02:40:58 +0000

Yeah, I just found a similar example from 1986, with the pitcher Ron Davis. He was credited with 1 inning, but it was 0.2 in the 8th and 0.1 in the ninth, so they spanned two innings.

By: lookatthosetwins

lookatthosetwins — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 02:39:43 +0000

Ok I figured this out myself. Todd Jones didn’t start the ninth, he came in in the 8th. The tigers must have come back and scored a run or two in the top of the ninth.