Where Do The OFs Land?
Yesterday, we saw Milton Bradley go to Chicago and Pat Burrell land in Tampa Bay. In general, Cubs fans and Rays fans are happy with their new acquisitions, and both teams are viewing their shiny new hitters as potentially the missing piece that could put them over the top.
You know who can’t be happy about those deals, though? Bobby Abreu, and to a lesser extent, Adam Dunn. The ceiling has been firmly established for offense first corner outfielders (non-Manny Ramirez category), and it’s much lower than it has been in past seasons. There’s not going to be a Carlos Lee type deal out there for Dunn, and Abreu won’t be able to pull in J.D. Drew type money. They’re going to have to take dramatic pay cuts in order to find a team willing to employ them.
The teams that were expected to be in the market for power bats were Tampa Bay, Oakland, Seattle, Anaheim, the Yankees, the Cubs, Atlanta, and maybe Washington. The Rays got Burrell, the A’s got Matt Holiday and Jason Giambi, the Mariners signed Russell Branyan, the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, and the Cubs signed Bradley. That leaves the Angels, Nationals, and maybe the Mariners as teams who could potentially still be interested in a left-handed power hitter with questionable defense.
Washington seems to make the most sense for Adam Dunn – he knows Jim Bowden from his days with the Reds, his best friend in the world is Austin Kearns, and the Nats are reportedly looking for a first baseman, since they don’t want to count on either Nick Johnson or Dmitri Young for 2009 and beyond. Dunn has experience at first base and would probably be willing to move there for a full time job and a decent contract. But considering that the rumored offer from Washington for Bradley was 3/30, it’s unlikely that they’d go higher than that for Dunn, especially in a market where he doesn’t have too many other obvious fits. Would Dunn settle for a contract in the 2/20 range? He might have to, because while he is younger than Burrell, they are comparable players, and his options are quickly dwindling.
Let’s assume Dunn does end up in Washington. That leaves Abreu trying to convince the Braves, Angels, and Mariners to start a bidding war for his services. None of them seem particularly interested, though. The Angels brought back Juan Rivera, which gives them four players to rotate through the OF/DH spots. The Mariners are bagain shopping, picking up the likes of Branyan and Chris Shelton, and kicking the tires on Jerry Hairston. Neither of them seem likely to offer up a high eight figures deal for an aging outfielder. That leaves the Braves as the best fit for Abreu – they know him from his time in Philadelphia, they’ve got a narrow window of contention, and they’ve got the payroll room to pay him. But with some intriguing outfield prospects coming, they’re not going to want to give out a long term deal. Abreu might be forced to settle for a one year contract from Atlanta if he wants anything close to $10 million for the 2009 season, which still represents a 33% paycut over his 2008 salary.
2/20 for Adam Dunn and 1/10 for Bobby Abreu? At the end of the season, those guys would have scoffed at numbers like that, but that might be the best case scenario for Dunn and Abreu now.
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Dunn will only be 29, has never lost time to injury, and has been very consistent. I would not be surprised to see Washington offer something like 4/50 for ages 29-32.
Abreu still has a good bat, but he’s in his 30′s and his component skills have been in decline for a few years. He’s about -10 in rf. I could see 2/20, but I wouldn’t commit any longer than that.
Brian Cartwright, if Dunn gets a contract like that in this market climate, then the GM has to be a pretty big moron. So yeah, 4/50 from Bowden sounds about right ;)
You have to think about upcoming off-seasons though, too. The recession should hurt for about two years, but then salaries should continue to climb again quickly. And there won’t be this glut of all-hit/no-field types to drive down their salaries. As Dunn is the only guy you really would want three and four years down the road, locking him up for $12MM per year isn’t a dumb move. The alternative is a year or two of Abreu at $10MM and then being forced to spend more like $16-$18MM per year over multiple years to get a guy like Dunn.
I can see Abreu going to the Angels or Braves or Mets for 2/25, or the Mets might even do 3/36. I do not think either team will want to have him longer than 2 yrs.
I can see Dunn getting 4/50 from the Nats as well, and if the Dodgers do not sign Manny, I can see a 4/55 signing.
It is really only the Angels (who are in need of some OBP), the Dodgers, the Braves, the Mets, doubtful for Seattle, the White Sox (if they move Dye), and possibly the Red Sox. Not too many suitors for 3 good bats, but poor Defenders
Final predictions:
Abreu to the Braves for 2/25
Manny to the Dodgers for 2/50 with a club option
Dunn to the Angels for 2/28
In any other Market Dunn would have been signed and would have gotten a 4/5 year deal
Someone would have overpaid Abreu to a 3/4 yr deal
Careful throwing Drew in the same group as the other outfielders. The guy is pretty close to being a five tool player because he can actually play defense unlike the other guys.
Surprisingly he is also more healthy than Bradley.
If Dunn’s market really is close to 2/20, then the Yankees should trade Nady for a couple of prospects and use the Pettitte money to sign Dunn. The LF and CF defense would be ugly with Dunn and Damon out there, but Matsui cannot stay healthy anyway, so Dunn can move to DH once Matsui gets hurt. And if Matsui stays healthy, well then Gardner can remain as a 4th OF and pinchrunner and defensive replacement for Damon late in games. And Matsui is gone after 09 so Dunn could permanently slide over to DH at that point.