Where For Pierre?
One of the big stories down the stretch in 2008 involved the wide array of Dodgers outfielders and who would receive playing time. Having signed both Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones to very lucrative deals, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier soon emerged as true talents. Add in the acquisition of Manny Ramirez and the team featured five outfielders, three of whom deserved playing time and two of which who realistically did not but were being paid as if they did.
Jones has already mentioned a desire to be traded to a team on which his playing time would increase, and it seems Pierre is singing the same tune. The Mets were initially reported as having some interest, but Omar Minaya shot that rumor down. For any team to take on Pierre, the Dodgers would need to pay a large chunk of his remaining salary.
From 2001-04, Pierre was a decent player. He proved to be extremely durable, playing over 150 games and stealing 45+ bases in each season. He recorded 200+ hits in three of the four seasons, producing OBPs above .360 in the corresponding campaigns. His wOBA in those seasons: .353, .312, .335, .343. These translated to the following wRAA totals: 14.8, -7.4, 4.6, 8.1.
His fielding in these seasons made him even more valuable. As a centerfielder, Pierre’s UZR data from 2002-2004 pegged him as +17 runs, +15 runs, and +5 runs.
In 2005, Pierre’s wOBA dropped to .309 and his offense was worth -10 runs below average. His defense declined to +3 as well. The following season, his offense remained in the same vicinity at -8 runs. Playing in Wrigley Field for the Cubs, his defense improved to +20 runs while captaining the outfield.
In 2007, Pierre inked a 5-yr deal with the Dodgers, which made little sense given the top-tiered prospects in the farm system. Though he played 162 games once again, and slapped his way to 196 hits, Pierre remained around -9 runs below average offensively, and saw his UZR drop to +7. While +7 in centerfield is still very solid, Pierre’s offense concerned many.
Last year, the Dodgers decided not to play Pierre as often as he had previously played, and Juan partook in just 119 games. Overall, he produced a +0.7 UZR in limited centerfield action and a +0.3 in 84 leftfield games. His offense remained -8 runs below average. Essentially, Pierre had gone from a no-hit, good fielding player to a no-hit, average fielding player in 2008. While he may not have been a replacement player, persay, he tended to fit the definition with his lack of hitting ability and average defense.
Next season, we can project Pierre as a -10 run hitter and +5 run fielder. If he finds himself on another team, with plenty of playing time, an optimistic projection would peg him as worth +15 runs with adjustments for both position and value over replacement level. This is optimistic, though, and with limited playing time, his value could drop to anything from +5 to +10 runs. Even at 1.5 wins, his fair market value would not be worth more than $7.5 mil. Suffice it to say, his current contract will reward him with more than that fee.
If Manny Ramirez does not return to the lineup, Pierre will likely stay put, but if not, the Dodgers may end up paying a good portion of his salary to leave town. Without paying a high percentage of his salary, he simply is not an attractive option for other teams. At 31 years old, his already declining offense will continue to decline, meaning his defense will need to pick up the slack to keep him worthwhile.
He may still be a plus defender, but not the +20 fielder from a few years ago. Juan Pierre still has value, but not enough to merit his current salary or even earn him playing time on the team currently employing him.
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Does UZR account for throwing arm? Because Pierre may have slightly above average range, but his arm is basically that of a right-handed third-grade girl attempting to throw left-handed. (Is that harsh?) And the most frustrating thing about his defense is that he’s one of the fastest guys in baseball, but his range is just barely above average. You just picture what he could do if he, ya know, knew how to read the bat off the ball.
I love that we have come so far with statistics that we can simultaneously reference his 200 hits every year while still pointing out the obvious: that he was merely decent.
Yeah, I was wondering about his arm strength as well. As poor as Juan’s arm is how much does it affect his value. 5 runs if he plays in LF ? 10 runs if he plays in CF?
BPro has done some work on outfield throwing arms. Really, it doesn’t amount to much. Alfonso Soriano had a like, +15 runs or something that was a total outlier, but everyone else was generally right around zed. So, I guess if Juan can’t hit and can’t field like the Pierre of yesteryear, his arm isn’t gonna make up the difference.
Yeah, John Walsh at THT did some work on outfield arms as well. Overall, it might add a few runs here or there, or subtract, but not enough to turn Pierre from 1.5 WAR to 2.5 or 0.5 or anything like that, as far as I know. If Pierre plays a full season, his projection would be around 1.5 wins, but on the Dodgers it isn’t likely he plays the full year.
Obviously, I haven’t done a study like BPro or THT but that is a good example seeing something and thinking it matters more than it does. It “seems” like every time you watch Juan play CF teams really challenge him, 2nd to home, 1 to 3rd. In my mind it seems like it should matter more than it really does.
“Next season, we can project Pierre as a -10 run hitter and +5 run fielder. If he finds himself on another team, with plenty of playing time, an optimistic projection would peg him as worth +15 runs with adjustments for both position and value over replacement level.”
Could somebody explain to me how -10 and +5 could possibly end up +15? I think I don’t quite understand how projections work. I get that he gets a little positive boost from playing CF, but that still would peg him as a below average hitter; again noting that I am not quite up to speed re: projections.
KMils, Pierre would be a -10 hitter and +5 fielder, making him -5 in those categories. Then we have to factor in the prorated +20 runs per 600 PA to be above replacement, not average, and prorated +2.5 for playing centerfield. All told, this results in about +18-20 runs added to the -5, making him about +13 to +15.
So essentially, a replacement level player is -20 below average, so in order to figure out how far a player is above replacement, you would add 20 runs to their expected production?
KMils,
Pretty much. A replacement player is approximately 2 wins below average per 600 PA. So, because of this, we add a prorated adjustment of +20 runs per 600 PA. If a player has 400 PA we would do (400/600) * 20, for something like +14. Then for positional adjustments, we prorate that to 162 games. For CF it is +2.5, so we would do (Pierre GP / 162) * 2.5.
Essentially, Pierre had gone from a no-hit, good fielding player to a no-hit, average fielding player in 2008.
There is no evidence that Pierre’s defense was any worse in 2008. His UZR numbers were down because his opportunities were down, both from not playing as much and from playing left instead of center. His offensive numbers are also misleading as they don’t include the bonus he should receive for being in the lineup every day (prior to 2008) or the runs he produces as a runner where he lead the majors for 2005-2007.
Peter, actually, these numbers are from the Value Runs and Wins we recently added here, which include the added value for being above replacement in the lineup all the time, as well as positional adjustments. And, the wRAA in this includes SB since our wOBA includes SB.
Erik – Pro-rating the replacement adjustment is not the correct way to adjust for playing time for a player with more than 600 PAs. If you are going to define a replacement player as a 600 PA player who is -20 runs above average, and Pierre is -9 runs above average in 750 PAs like he was in 2006, then his value over replacement is -9 runs + 20 runs + (.12 * 150 PAs). The .12 being the average run value per PA of course. Correctly accounting for his extra PAs adds 13 runs to Pierre’s 2006 offensive value.
Peter, first, it’s Eric, my name is all over this site. Secondly, the value above replacement is +20 runs per 600 PA, and our numbers on this site go above that, as well. It isn’t as if Pierre with 750 PA in 2006 only gets +20 runs. In 2006, it looks like his adjustment above replacement level is +25 runs, which makes sense. Due to Pierre’s number of PA, he was given a full 5 runs on top of the +20 per 600 PA. If you feel this is extremely incorrect, please e-mail David Appelman with reasons why as we are still perfecting this process.
How are you 22???
How long have you been studying this??? Since you were like 14??
Quite impressive……you got a long future in this…….I am sure you have worked and studied an incredible amount……I look forward to reading you for years to come!
And every GM should take a look at this site for reference…….if they do not have thier own database like this already, which I am guessing not many do, or at least not as extensive……
And do you know of any GM’s that look at this site? Or have any contacted you guys?
You all should have jobs in an organization……..(hook me up, if you get one!!)
Eric—Also, is there any studies on contract years???
Would it be possible to do? Possibly take every FA who has an OPS above .700, or maybe even .750 and look at their walk years???
It seems to be a personal thing and would have high variability, and would be hard to study, but it would surely be an interesting one……
Eric – Sorry about spelling your name wrong. I just spaced out I guess. I also spaced out on my calculation. The method you use is fine.
Peter, no prob whatsoever.
Justin, 23 now, haha. I believe Baseball Prospectus did a study on contract years in a book of theirs though I’m not positive.
I don’t know of GMs who have contacted me to say they come here but I have spoken to a number of players who frequent this site, and I know of some Assistant GMs who have read this site and others.
haha, wow huge difference, 23 years of age, a young guy with an old soul…….
Players check out the site??? Impossible…..haha, tell me one of them is Raul Ibanez who thinks all D-metrics do not take into consideration D-alignment…..or anything else…..haha (Figures though since he is the prototype of a defensive stud!!haha)
Do you know of any clubs that have this extensive of a database? I feel like for their own teams, most likely, but for every player? I doubt it. I can see the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and A’s (are you seeing my logic??) all having such extensive databases, but not all teams……