Who Do I Think You Are?
If you’re like me, you find no greater comfort than to bury yourself in the warm embrace of sweeping generalizations. That, and you haven’t showered in about a week.
And while the readership is undoubtedly curious about my bathing habits, in the interest of time, I’d like to confine the present discussion to an exploration of the former: sweeping generalizations.
Specifically, in this post, I’d like to look at the opportunity that the Fan Projections has given us to make some barely supported claims about the FG readership.
Of course, any and all demographic information is already available to FanGraphs Overlord David Appelman. Like Dr. Claw of the Inspector Gadget cartoon series, Appelman runs the crime syndicate known as FANgraphs from an overstuffed swivel chair in his rainswept castle, surveying our every waking moment on a surprisingly advanced Tandy computer.
But as you can probably guess, we lowly contributors are not allowed to talk to Appelman or look at him directly or learn his true identity — and we’re certainly not privvy to his secret databases.
Which is why these Projections are a great opportunity for those who, like me, are curious about the kind of people who point their internet browsers this way. In the interest of discovering just that, I made periodic records yesterday of which players were the most frequent targets of our new Fan Projections.
Below is a list of the players with the times at which they crossed the 30-ballot threshold. In each case, I’ve added a brief, and wildly speculative guess as to why this or that player might be popular amongst the readership.
Monday, November 30, 11:40 am PST
Hitters: Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki
Pitchers: CC Sabathia
Before Mr. Appelman raised the minimum ballots-per-projection from 10 to 30, this list was longer, but for the purposes of the present work, it’s fine. Pujols is fun to project because he’s crazy good. I’m guessing that the readership just enjoys entering all those video game-sized numbers next to Pujols’s name. Ichiro, besides being Ichiro!, is a player who gives projection systems fits. It’ll be interesting to see how the Fans do here. Sabathia is our first pitcher, because he hails from a large and interested market (read: New York) and because he’s probably an odds-on favorite to lead the AL (if not the majors) in wins.
Monday, November 30, 12:50 pm PST
Hitters: Dustin Pedroia and Franklin Gutierrez
Pitchers: NONE
Gutierrez is obviously a FanGraphs favorite based on his outstanding defensive production. Pedroia, besides hailing from another large and interested market (read: Boston) also possesses a little bit of that Ichiro mystique, I think. No, he’s not a hero in Japan, but he does have a profile (small frame, swings from the heels, excellent contact rate) that resists easy categorization.
Monday, November 30, 2:10 pm PST
Hitters: Derek Jeter
Pitchers: NONE
Jeter is a potentally polarizing figure, and certainly one upon whom fans are eager to weigh in. As of 12:35 pm PST today, he’s got a Fan-Projected UZR of -1.5. It’s interesting to note that, at this point, Sabathia had a full 75 ballots cast for him even as no other pitcher topped 30.
Monday, November 30, 4:10 pm PST
Hitters: David Wright, Adrian Beltre, Jose Lopez.
Pitchers: NONE
Seattle-ites again. Beltre is interesting, like Gutierrez, because of the influence of defensive play on his overall value. Lopez? Hmmm. Maybe Dave Cameron is stuffing the ballot box.
Monday, November 30, 4:55 pm PST
Hitters: Russell Branyan, Jeff Francoeur
Pitchers: Felix Hernandez
King Felix became the second pitcher with 30+ ballots, again — along with Branyan’s inclusion — suggesting that Seattle is representing real hard around here. Francoeur is like the anti-Gutierrez for the average FG reader: where Guti’s contributions are easily overlooked, Francoeur plays well in traditional stats like AVG and HR while displaying almost nothing in the way of plate discipline. (As of 12:40 pm PST today, Gutierrez has a 4.8 WAR versus Francoeur’s 0.4.)
Monday, November 30, 7:30 pm PST
Hitters: Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Ken Griffey Jr., Jack Wilson
Pitchers: NONE
Joe Mauer is sorta like a mini-Pujols in terms of production. Teixeira is a New Yorker. Griffey and Wilson are two more Seattle-ers.
Monday, November 30, 9:10 pm PST
Hitters: Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano
Pitchers: NONE
New York fans (again!).
Tuesday, December 1, 9:30 am PST
Hitters: Kevin Youkilis, Chase Utley, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Howard, Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, Nick Swisher, B.J. Upton, David Ortiz, Jay Bruce, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chone Figgins
Pitchers: Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, Ricky Nolasco, Edwin Jackson
So, you’ll notice that there’s 12 hours between this and the last check-in. A man’s got to sleep, alright. Anyway, here we get some Bostonians (Youk, Ells, Ortiz), some New Yorkers (Beltran, Swish), and a couple of World Series-ers (Utley, Howard). Longoria, Zobrist, Upton, and even probably Edwin Jackson appear as part of the R.J. Anderson Effect. That, and the fact that the Rays, as an organization, are a case study for Doing Things the Right Way. Figgins is little guy with a high walk total: Will he sustain that? Lincecum and Greinke are your Cy Young winners and interesting for that reason. Jay Bruce and Ricky Nolasco (and Jackson, too) are Appelman’s “Target Players” for the day (supporting the fact that Appelman will be obeyed).
Tuesday, December 1, 12:15 am PST
Hitters: Matt Wieters, Jimmy Rollins, Michael Saunders
Pitchers: Jon Lester
We have an Oriole, folks! Of course, it’s not just an Oriole: it’s Matt Wieters! Rollins is a third World Series-er. Saunders is your ninth Mariner.
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Possibly Seattle baseball fans frequent Fangraphs.com more frequently than fans from elsewhere because David Cameron brings Seattle readers with him when he writes for both USS Mariner and Fangraphs. Just a guess.
Of course, that’s the rational explanation. Still, I’d like to think that mind-controlling Ceti eels are behind it somehow.
Since when do you know about Ceti eels?
Also, take a shower.
‘Do you know what that sound is highness? Those are the Ceti eels!’
Cameron brings the Seattle noise, Cistulli brings the Portland funk.
Yes take a shower.
The sheer volume of baseball loving jock-nerds in and around the Seattle area is unparalleled. Check out past results of Tango’s Scouting Report by the Fans for the Fans. Mariner fans have been dominating that arena since 2006, long before Cameron showed up here.*
* Cameron most likely (definitely) directed ussm readers to Tango’s project in 2006.
I wanted to link to the M Ward song “Portland Rain” but all I could find was an Everclear song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxqZuPaCY5Q
Whatever. Mostly I wanted to demand more Carson! Mark’s previews are great and all, and no offence to the Daves, but its the off season! its over! There is a time and a place for Dante references and semi colons; and its now!
Carson may not be to Pos level yet, but no one else is either, and Ken Tremendous isn’t walk in that door. Irreverent, intelligent, and funny writing isn’t easy to come by, and FG is a better site with more of it.
With that said its time to recite P.G. Wodehouse while dancing a Flamenco in a pinafore. (Hey, its a living!)
Much more AL than NL, too.
Geez do I love this site.
I’m not much for defensive evaluation, is it possible to leave those blank? I’d hate to skew other opinions by just entering a guess.
Just guess. The whole point of the Wise Crowds idea is that guesses will wash out. Of course, the smartest guess is 0, since the best expectation is that the player will be totally average at his position (defensive skills are more-or-less normally distributed and the model requires that the average player is zero.)
Pujols and CC were first because that’s who Dave Cameron included in his link. Ichiro was there too because of the Seattle connection and being first in the Mariners’ batters list.
Shake a tower for us all.
I think Pedroia has the Ichiro mystique in that no one can really tell what he is: overrated, underrated, or rated normally.
Among 2B’s in 2009, he was 8th in MLB in BA, 5th in OBP, 11th in SLG and HR, 6th in SB, 3rd in UZR/150. So he’s good at a lot of things, but not great in one thing. How valuable is that? I personally find it extremely valuable, and WAR tends to agree with me (and apparently so do the fellow readership, given his 5.9 WAR projection in 2010).
Ichiro gets the same treatment.
“He hits .340!”
“He rarely walks and doesn’t hit for much power.”
“He plays great defense!”
“But in Right Field, he would only be an average CF.”
“But he’s a great base stealer!”
“But he was only 26 for 35 in 2009.”
And they’re both definite anomalies, Ichiro breaks the rule that low power, low patience hitters eventually fail, because he’s yet to come close to failing. Pedroia looks straight out of the gritty gritster mold, except he’s a lot better. Either way, I don’t think anyone would say “former MVP” if you told them their skill sets.
Someone on an ESPN forum said that Ichiro was the best left handed hiter since Teddy Ballgame (of the Fucking Major League!)
Skip Bayless called Pedroia the best “small” player of any sport ever. (His opponent argued for Tiny Archibald, but how an ESPN talking head could forget “LITTLE” Joe Morgan is beyond me.)
I agree that its hard to tell who is overrated but–like porn–I know it when i see it… and they both are.
Ichiro’s and Pedroia’s swings are art, and the line is blurred when you get art involved.
You’re basing overratedness on a comment in an ESPN forum and by something Skip Bayless said?
Some people start with their opinion and then collect whatever evidence, no matter how laughable, to support it.
My point was something along the lines of “yes Vergina, there are overrated players.”
I didn’t mean so say that because someone somewhere thinks player X is a god, that X is overrated. I wanted to point out that there are real people who think that real players are the best ever at things, when they aren’t. I wanted to make a point about how we think about players, not how they “really are.”
Since I can’t smell you through the website, you can wait as long as you want to take a shower.
You can’t smell him through the website *yet*. It’ll seep through eventually.
Take a shower before that point, Carson. If not for us, at least for your neighbors…
The Seattle readership represent!
Seattle Mariner or Seattleite, not Seattle-er
If that was just bait, I apologize.
Add all the fan projected WAR for the projected Pirates starters plus backup catcher Jaramillo and relievers Capps/Hanrahan. Add that to 48.5 replacement wins and we’ve got 82 wins! I’ll take that any day of the week.
Hell I found FanGraphs after I moved to Omaha, and I am an M’s fan, and I did projections on Ichiro, Felix, and Guti. Maybe Ichiro makes M’s fans interested in numbers or something, indirectly leading us here.
Well Dave Cameron writes for the U.S.S. Mariner, and heavily advertises the web site on here, leading to a whole lot of Mariners fans who frequent the site.
Don’t forget Matthew Carruth, another Mariners blogger that’s a regular contributor here.
I welcome the change from “Phillies” to “World Series-ers.”