Why Am I In Syracuse?
The conventional wisdom for pitchers is that they want to strike out twice as many batters as they walk. A two to one K/BB rate is seen as the foundation for what a pitcher should aim for, and obviously, the better pitchers will get to three to one or higher. Generally, if a pitcher is striking out three times as many batters as he’s walking, he’s going to succeed, even if he isn’t particularly good at anything else. That kind of strike zone dominance makes it very easy to get hitters out on a regular basis.
Take, for instance, this group of starters, all who have basically identical K/BB rates, just a tick above 3.00: Johan Santana, Zach Greinke, Tim Lincecum, Derek Lowe, Andy Pettitte. That’s an all-star cast of front line starters. But there’s one name missing from the group, a guy with a K/BB that puts him square in the middle of such select company.
Jesse Litsch. You know, the guy Toronto optioned to Triple-A a few weeks ago.
Seriously, go take a look at Litsch’s season numbers. His 4.46 ERA is supported by a 4.58 FIP, showing that he’s been basically as good as advertised. He offsets a lack of strikeouts by pounding the strike zone regularly, not walking anyone (1.49 BB/9) and keeping the ball on the ground (49.8% GB%). However, he struggled in three consecutive starts leading up to his demotion, and a couple of weeks of poor work was enough for the Blue Jays to conclude that he would be better served working on his weaknesses in the minor leagues.
Maybe they’re right – they’re closer to Litsch than we are, and so they’re privy to information that we are not, but it’s hard to come up with a scenario where a guy with a 3.00+ K/BB rate isn’t good enough to pitch in the major leagues right now.
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I think if the conventional wisdom is 2/1 for K/BB, it’s also at least 6 for K/9 and below 1 for HR/9. (Yes, for those that care, these are the baseline levels for Ron Shandler’s LIMA plan).
Litsch’s BABIP is exactly where it should be based on his line drive rate, so as you note, he hasn’t been unlucky.
His HR rate is close to being respectable – a few less and he’d be at 1 per 9 innings. And his HR/FB rate and minor league HR% numbers suggest that maybe he’s been a little unlucky there.
But the main problem is simply that the doesn’t strike enough guys out. You really can’t survive with a K rate that low, regardless of how few walks you give up. The simple reason is that more balls will be hit into play and more hits will be given up.
The obvious comparison is Wang, but there are a couple differences – Wang’s LD rate (from 05 to 07) was lower, leading to a lower BABIP. Most importantly, his HR rate was less than half of Litsch’s.
So basically, I guess my point is that the 2 to 1 K/BB, 6 K/9, and <1 HR/9 numbers must all work together.
If Litsch is only striking out 4 batters per 9 innings, he’d have to get the GB rate up even further (thus decreasing the LD rate), and cut his homers in half.
Just a quick calculation – if he gave up half as many HR, his ERA would be in the mid 3s, and we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
Sorry, that was a little confusing. Let me revise and say:
“Striking out 3 times as many guys as he walks is great, but he’d also have to do at least one of the following (and of course, the latter 2 are interrelated) – get his K rate above 6 or so, get his GB rate above 60% or so, or get his HR rate to about .60/9 or so.”
Josh Towers is a good example of a strong K/BB guy who doesn’t belong in the Majors. 3.45 last year, this year can’t get anyone out in Triple A. But, I have no idea if Listch’s stuff is anything like Towers’. Towers does have the HR issue.
Litsch’s numbers look a lot like another guy (and future Hall of Famer) who’s still in the bigs:
Litsch–
4.60 FIP, 4.09 xFIP, 49.8 GB%, 4.6 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3.1 K/BB, 13.9 HR/F%
Other guy–
3.98 FIP, 4.19 xFIP, 48.9 GB%, 4.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 2.9 K/BB, 11.1 HR/F%
The other guy, of course, is Greg Maddux.
There’s nothing wrong with allowing balls in play. They go for hits 30% of the time, meaning the OBP on balls in play is only .300. And SLG is under .400. It’s the homeruns that become a problem with low-K pitchers — giving up that many flyballs leads to problems. That’s why the only low-K pitchers to really succeed are groundball pitchers. At least they have a chance.
Brad Radke, David Wells, Rick Reed.
If you runa K/BB of 3.00 or higher, regardless of how low your K rate is, you’re going to succeed. The 6 K/9 barrier is artificial and incorrect.
Part of litsch’s problem is that he’s a bit immature on the mound. He’s throwing way too many cutters (that look/act like lousy sliders) when he’s got a decent low 90s fastball/2seamer. He’s inconsistent and young, and needs to sort some things out. AAA is the best place for that.
The other reason that players with such low K-rates tend not to succeed in major league baseball is that it’s difficult to have major league stuff and NOT strike out more batters. If you can throw strikes and not have batters pound it all around the outfield and outfield seats (remember BABIP-regression only applies to MLB-quality pitchers), then you’ll probably also end up with a fair number of strikeouts.
It was mentioned above, but an excellent K/BB ratio does not ensure major league success, Josh towers being the most obvious name for Blue Jays fans. Last two years: ERA 6.50, K/BB 2.85.
Former Jay Daev Bush has dominating K/BB numbers (3:1 career), but has been thoroughly average (100 ERA+)
Another of recent vintage : Jeff D’Amico (2001-2004) ERA 5.79 K/BB 2.47
It is difficult to find pitchers who fit this profile in the majors, since generally those who can’t get outs in the majors will be found out before they get there, even if they can put up good K/BB numbers. There’s a selection bias. I have no doubt there are dozens of minor leaguers who could manage good K/BB numbers but still get destroyed in the majors, but they don’t usually do well enough in the minors in the first place.
Agree with aweb here. Dave, you’re picking out the exceptions. It’s rare that a guy can survive with a k-rate that low.
Of course the 6 K/9 barrier is artificial. So is the 2 and 3 K/BB barriers. Incorrect? Prove it.
And re: Maddux – BobbyRoberto, I assume you’ll agree that his HOF induction will be based more on his performance from 1988 through 2002 (when his K/9 was 6.07). If he was in the AL, he’d probably be released by now. His ERA on the road is over 6.
Sky, of course there’s something wrong with allowing balls in play. For exactly the reason you said – they go for hits 30% of the time. I’m being facetious, but how often do strikeouts go for hits? :)
My point, which you do seem to agree with, is that if he’s striking out so few guys, he’s got to cut his HR rate significantly, or increase his GB rate.
OR, he could strike out around 6 guys per inning, which would of course decrease the number of balls in play, and thus the number of hits allowed.
The existence of one pitcher who has struggled in the majors with a 3/1 K/BB rate is not sufficient evidence that there is a big group of pitchers who are capable of striking out three times as many batters as they walk while struggling to do anything else well enough to stay in the majors.
Fine Dave.
Here are the seasons since 2000 for pitchers who have:
A) qualified for the ERA title
B) had a K/9 rate of Litch’s (4.62) or lower
C) had a K/BB rate of 2.5 or higher
1. Carlos Silva, 2005. 188.1 IP, 71 K, 9 BB, 3.44 ERA. This was due to his freakishly low BB rate. I’ll admit that a K/BB rate of nearly 8 will do it.
2. Brian Anderson, 2000. 213.1 IP, 104 K, 39 BB, 4.05 ERA.
3. Paul Byrd, 2005. 204.1 IP, 102 K, 28 BB, 3.74 ERA.
4. David Wells, 2003. 213 IP, 101 K, 20 BB, 4.14.
5. Brad Radke, 2006. 162.3 IP, 83 K, 32 BB, 4.32 ERA.
6. Byrd, 2007. 192.1 IP, 88 K, 28 BB, 4.59 ERA.
Of these, Silva is not comparable to Litsch because his K/BB rate is THAT good. Plus he was lucky (FIP of 4.18)
Anderson and Byrd in 2005 were ok. But were they good? Byrd’s FIP was 3.94. He was pretty good. Anderson’s FIP was over 5. Lucky.
Wells was ok in 2003. To be fair, he was actually a bit unlucky as his FIP was 3.94. But his K/BB rate was over 5, so it’s a bit of a stretch to compare him to Litsch.
Radke in 2006 – FIP of 4.66. Lucky.
Byrd was bad in 2007. And a bit lucky too, as his FIP was 4.68.
So, #1 – the fact that there are so few pitchers that meet these criteria supports aweb’s point. These guys just don’t come around often because they are not good.
#2 – in 8 years, we have 6 examples, 2 of them had FIPs below 4, and one of those (Wells) was significantly better than Litch in terms of K/BB.
Do I have to go further?
If your point is that Litch’s upside is that of Paul Byrd and his career 104 ERA+, then great.
And from your exceptions “Brad Radke, David Wells, Rick Reed”:
Reed: career K/9 of 5.65. Consistently over 6 during his prime of 1997-2002.
Radke: 5.39 for his career. His 3 best seasons, in terms of ERA+: 2004 (K/9 of 5.86), 1999 (K/9 of 4.98), 1997 (K/9 of 6.53). 1999: FIP of 4.30, ERA of 3.75.
Wells: career K/9 of 5.76. Consistently over 6 during his best years.
Your “exceptions” have proven my point.
And Dave, I don’t want to come across as argumentative. Sorry if you’ve taken it that way – I do really like your writing. If I didn’t, I wouldn’t take the time to respond.
I didn’t claim there are tons of pitchers who can manage a 3:1 major league ratio, just lots of pitchers who could manage good ones and still not succeed. 3:1 is sufficiently elite that not many can manage it even for a season.
The types of pitchers I think of in the minors that couldn’t make it in the majors are those with off-speed pitches that they can throw for strikes, but just aren’t up to major league hitters when they throw a bad one. They can still strike out hitters, don’t walk many, but can’t get away with mistakes.
Since I’m obviously a Blue Jays fans, I’ll throw in another name along the lines I mean: Mike Nakamura. Dominated the minors (3.01 ERA, 515:146 in 476 IP), threw lots of junk, and in the majors had a 38:9 ratio in 38.3 innings. Looked awesome for whole innings at a time. But when he hung his curve/slider, major league hitters beat the crap out of it, to the tune of 11 HR, ERA at 7.51. He struck people out, didn’t walk anyone, but never learned, in his admittedly brief chance, to spin his junk in the dirt rather than for a strike. There may well have been dozens more of this type of pitcher, but who remembers them?