Why No Love For Pettitte?
Earlier today I got to thinking about this past offseason and the discussions housed here involving whether or not the Yankees should sign Derek Lowe or Andy Pettitte. Plenty of opinions flew back and forth but the overwhelming result was that Pettitte would be the better fit for the Yankees given the lower salary and lesser commitment. After all, 1-yr/$10 mil (assuming all incentives kick in) is much easier to handle than 4-yr/$60 mil, especially for a team that had spent a pretty penny on CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira.
Lately, however, with the injury to Chien-Ming Wang and the “emergence” of Phil Hughes, I have heard a few fans suggest that Pettitte should pitch out of the bullpen when Wang returns. At first, I wanted to respond by saying that no, Joba does not belong in the bullpen, until it dawned on me that this age old Chamberlain debate had now been pushed upon Pettitte… which made my head hurt even more than the aforementioned age old Chamberlain debates.
Then I began to remember when Pettitte actually did sign and how everyone seemed to assign the term “fifth starter” upon him. As the title of this post suggests, what gives? Why no love for Pettitte? Do people realize he has been one of the best and most reliable pitchers over the last several seasons?
If Pettitte is a fifth starter, he is without question the best fifth starter in baseball right now, given that he would be a #3 in most other teams in the game and perhaps even a #2. Put him on some of the lesser-quality teams like the Nationals, Rockies, and Pirates and he might actually be the ace.
Over the last four seasons, Pettitte has averaged 213 innings and +4.6 wins. His total of +18.3 wins in that span of 2005-08 ranks ninth amongst all pitchers, ahead of both Jake Peavy and Josh Beckett. In 2004, he missed time due to injuries, but here are his win values from 2002-08, excluding that injury plagued 2004 campaign: +4.2, +5.5, +5.8, +3.5, +4.5, +4.4. Granted, I’m not here to make any sort of Hall of Fame case for the guy, but rather to point out he has had a terribly underrated career and he is still producing at a very high level. In fact, through five starts this season he has already amassed +1 win.
If the Yankees have a fifth starter, it sure isn’t Andy Pettitte, and if any of their starters is going to be relegated into bullpen duty, it should not be Andy Pettitte. People really need to start realizing that what he brings to the table is not a marginal upgrade over an average or replacement pitcher but rather almost the guarantee of +3.5 to +4 wins.
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A quick note: Rally’s numbers for WAR and this site’s numbers for WAR are completely different. The last three years’ WAR for Pettitte (according to Rally’s) are .6, 2.9 and 1.7 (an average of ~1.7). Your post suggests that they are scaled the same and that Pettitte will gain 4.5 WAR a year on Koufax and catch him in two years, when in fact, he will take more than five to catch Koufax and eight to crack the top 25. Considering that Pettitte is 37, I doubt he’ll do either.
Whoops, I actually meant to edit the Rally part out once I got the total WAR from this site. Good catch.
Pettitte isn’t even the “typical” type of pitcher that gets put in the pen. He’s all about location and mixing in four pitches (FB CT CB CH), which is hardly the type of pitcher associated with bullpen work.
Also, if the Yankees are still thinking postseason, and no reason they shouldn’t be (inability to beat the Red Sox aside), who else starts for them aside from Sabathia and Burnett (assuming the Yankees make the playoffs, I assume both are healthy at that point)? Chamberlain threw 100 Innings last year, and Hughes threw 70. Are these the guys who are going to be helping in September and October?
As a yankees fan I have been saying the same thing about him not getting enough love for a long time. I’m sure on a site like this the vast majority thought a short term deal like his was obviously the right move over another signing, but I was shocked by how many “lay” yankees fans and people in the media didn’t feel the same way.
He has also had BABIPs of .331, .323, and .339 over the last 3 seasons… If he gets the other side of the coin, his ERA over those 3 years would be absolutely stellar instead of “just” in the low 4 region. He also pitched 200IP in each season. His longevity and consistency is ridiculous, I absolutely love the guy.
In unrelated Yankees news, I can’t believe everyone is so down on this team right now. The fact that Angel Berroa and Ramiro Pena are about to be replaced by Arod should be reason for optimism enough. The team is in such better shape than it was 3-4 years ago it is shocking. In my opinion most people got way, way too down on Hughes and Kennedy, for one they are extremely young, and second having 2 young pitchers with upside in the 6 and 7 slots to replace whoever inevitably gets hurt, when was the last time we had that? Even if you take a pessimistic outlook for them (which I think is unfounded), that Hughes “hasn’t shown he can be healthy” or that Kennedy only has AAAA stuff (somewhat unreasonable and reactionary to say about a 24 y.o.), having them in the minors was an insane value (at least relative to the depth of the rotation in the past).
Anyway I am obviously biased, but I genuinely feel my optimism about the future is warranted. Up until about a year ago, I had been very pessimistic about the future for a while, I think the turnaround they have managed has been very impressive. I think people underestimate how much of that should be credited to Cashman gaining free reign over the team’s operations, lots of people criticize him for deals that were not really his idea or first choice. IMHO.
While I do think that Pettite is a good and underrated pitcher (I would have been ecstatic if the Cards signed him), he is somewhat overrated by FIP. He has the ability to miss bats, but when he doesn’t, he allows a lot of hard contact. His tRA*s have only been slightly above average in each of the last 3 years. In fact his WAR totals by tRA* during that span are 2.9, 2.9 and 2.9 (although he was worth 5.9 WAR in 05. 2.9 WAR a season is still very good, however I don’t think that Pettite is as good as you describe him in this article. You’re right that he should never be moved to the pen though.
Is the strength of a team’s defense accounted for in FIP or WAR? Because he has played on NYY for 11 out of 14 of his complete seasons. I have no idea how good houstons defense was during his 3 years there.
FIP is fielding independent, so is tRA*, so the quality of defense doesn’t really matter.
Damn you beat me to it. Petite seems to be one of the rare cases where FIP really isn’t a good evaluation of his performance, given how different his FIP’s and tRA’s are over this same span. Not that being a 2.9 win pitcher really disproves your point, though…
2.9 wins by tRA 3 years in a row, talk about consistency.
No matter how you look at it, Pettitte has been undervalued throughout his career. +2.9 tRA for 3 yrs is tremendous, as are his win values here.
You guys all realize that h is Juicing again? or he would not be this good!
Oh yeah. Cancel this article. Maybe we need to put some steroidjuice adjustments on Sidney Ponson and I bet he’s better than this darn dirty cheater!
I haven’t looked at the numbers, and I’ve only watched 4 Yankee games, but I get the feeling left-handers are going to be very useful in that park come summer.
I believe that people have an issue with Andy Pettite because of his age. Ditto for Jamie Moyer (who isn’t quite as good as Pettite). But maybe it’s because I’m older than either of them.
I’ve never seen any evidence of that, but I can understand why an old guy under a constant barrage of Flowmax and Ciallis commercials might feel that way.
Great post. I wasn’t aware that Pettitte was underrated. As a Yankees fan, I was very dismayed to see him leave after the 2003 season. Other than his second half last year, he has been one of the most productive, reliable pitchers for the Yankees.