Willie’s Blooming Power
Last season, in 192 plate appearances Willie Bloomquist recorded 46 hits, 45 of which were singles. That’s good for a batting line of .279/.377/.285, or an ISO of 0.006, one of the lowest in major league history. Naturally, Bloomquist has followed his powerless exhibition with 70 plate appearances and a .509 slugging percentage this season.
Ignore the .408 BABIP, the fact that Bloomuqist only has four extra base hits, and that his HR/FB% is well above career norms, and just focus on the sample sizes at play. Which is more likely to tell us of Willie Bloomquist’s true talent level:
A) ~70 plate appearances with a .500+ slugging
B) ~1,400 plate appearances with a .324 slugging
It seems like common sense, but sometimes our desires and optimism as fans lead us astray to the point where a few weeks’ worth of plate appearances that deviate upward from the norm cause us to start reasoning against the past. Bloomquist played at Safeco Park, which is known to sap right-handed power. The Mariners clubhouse was reportedly a miserable place last season, perhaps that affected Bloomquist as well. Maybe the Royals coaching staff is better too.
Even if you park adjust and somehow attempt and objectively credit his improved power to coaching and an improved atmosphere, you still won’t be able to add nearly 0.200 points of slugging – and if you did, you probably did it wrong. At the end of the day this is still Willie Bloomquist. The hot start is certainly going to help his end of season numbers, but the reason ZiPS projects Bloomquist to finish with a .385 slugging is not because it hates him, but because there’s an entire body of evidence suggesting against Bloomquist’s new found power stroke.
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WRONG R.J.! The reason ZiPS, you and every other analyst that thinks this is a temporary situation with Willie is because of your OBVIOUS hatred and bias towards Willie and the Bravest GM in Baseball , Dayton Moore. I’m SO SICK of it. Behind Willie, the Professor, Mike Jacobs, and Jose “Hoagy” Guillen, Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman are going lead the Royals to a 10 game lead in the AL Central by mid-July.
Now, if you had just said that, then we’d know you were being objective.
t first glance I thought you had written “the Bavasiest GM in baseball”.
There’s a difference?
Well played, sir.
Do people really think ZiPS hates Willie Bloomquist?
The whole post is one giant preaching-to-the-choir.
Yeah, and if you want to be nitpicky, the projected SLG of .382 is still a huge improvement over any previous season (except 2002 when he had only 33 at bats). so it’s not a logically false statement to say “Bloomquist’s power has improved since coming to KC”.
I don’t think that anyone (include Royals fans) believes that Bloomquist has suddenly become good at this point in his career. At most, some fans buy into the “hot hand” argument and that Bloomquist should be played while he’s “hot.”
Safeco FIELD, RJ. The LLers won’t let you forget that one.
Now, Willie played about this well when he first appeared with the Mariners. Maybe if he changed teams every 100 plate appearances he’d end up in in the Hall of Fame.
but which cap would he wear?
The real question is which team will think Bloomquist is the answer to their problems, trade for him come July, and assume the title of Bravest GM in baseball?
I don’t think any team in the AL Central will ever have a 10 game lead this year. And I’m a royals fan to the max.
if the Royals and the Sox played each other right now, they’d find a way for both of them to lose.
And based on the reports and Etc. I think Jim Bowden was the bravest GM in baseball.
This line of reasoning would be completely correct as long as you accept the following assumption: players are static, and their true talent level does not change. However, historical data clearly shows this not to be the case, players do change. This is why most projection systems much more heavily weight previous performance.
A more reasonable comparison (with weighted samples) might be something more like 70 PAs at 500+ slugging and 500 PAs at .324 slugging, still not good, but not as dire as you suggest.
Great website – will definitely visit again.