Comments on: Win Values Explained: Part Two

By: ???????? ????????

???????? ???????? — Sun, 24 May 2009 10:36:53 +0000

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By: colin

colin — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 00:51:11 +0000

where did you get the weights? tango? link plz?

By: Terry

Terry — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:43:22 +0000

Publishing this data is great. That said, it looks at defense using only one metric. There is a real possibility that even adding +/-5 defensive runs might not capture what a survey of metrics would suggest. For instance fangraph’s UZR might actaully grade Dunn 10 runs worse than a survey of Dewan’s, CHONES, PMR, and MGL’s UZR would suggest he was in ‘08.

By: RS

RS — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 08:42:16 +0000

No, sorry, I haven’t listed the formal methodology and so on, and that’s because as I said it’s kind of a proxy for myself, really.
But I do take into account WP, PB, SB, CS, E and SB attempts against, measuring their linear weights and accounting for playing time. That’s about it.

By: colin

colin — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 06:35:34 +0000

ty for the 04-08 stuff though.

By: colin

colin — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 05:31:50 +0000

Do you have a post and all that I could link to with a thorough methodology and some conclusions and all that? Looking at the data provided in the macro is pretty interesting. For example, I plugged the 2008 season into excel and looked at RAA/120 v. playing time and there’s actually a significant negative correlation between the two, which surprised me. In light of Tango’s 2009 THT annual article, though, I guess that makes sense. The whole idea is that it’s incredibly taxing just to play back there. Breaking the 1000 Inn barrier is a huge accomplishment in itself and only about 15 are able to do that per year.

By: Josh

Josh — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 03:29:26 +0000

I tried clicking the links to BBTF’s articles on UZR, but they dont lead to anything but the homepage. Can you post the correct links, thanks.

By: RS

RS — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:31:19 +0000

colin, sure I could. Here are the values from 2004 to 2008 (different tabs):
http://rene144.playitusa.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/cdif2004-2008.xls

Of course all listed limitations still apply.

By: colin

colin — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 22:00:30 +0000

could you run this for, say, the past three seasons? seeing how well they correlate from year to year would be a big deal, plus i’d just like to have the data. in general, it looks like this lines up with reputation (i’d been using -10 for AJ Pierzynski, for example…). the raw numbers themselves look pretty worthwhile to me and adjusting them by rough inference shouldn’t be too hard. i’d like to see fangraphs publish this stuff, frankly.

using AJ as an example, Contreras is terrible at holding runners and is prone to WPs thanks to the forkball, but Buehrle probably cancels that out. Danks, Floyd and Vazquez were probably average-ish, so I’d guess that is AJ’s approximate talent level at this point.

By: colin

colin — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 21:48:39 +0000

wouldn’t it be better to use something like a rolling 3 year average for defense? also, isn’t it pretty clear that average defense != replacement level defense at this point? that was a pretty common meme for a while .