This is very difficult to digest and seems non-agreeable even if try.

If I bring in Manny to my team:
1) he will be Manny and will kill the opposing pitchers
2) he will protect the guys batting above and below in the lineup (even though SABRmetric studies does not agree on the value of protection, I dont agree with that personally – look at SFO gaints run in 2002 after Dusty baker moved Kent to hit ahead of Bonds midway thru the season)
3) opposing pitchers have to work harder to get Manny out
4) opposting pitchers pitch counts might become higher with Manny in the lineup as they may pitch around him etc
5) opposition has to develop a game plan to deal with Manny, how they are going to pitch to him, how not to let him beat them etc.
6) Manny maybe 30 runs worse than Winn in Defense, but over the course of a season with 162 games, the effect of that might not be huge
7) I am pretty sure that Sox would not gotten over the hump in 04 and 07 with Randy Winn hitting behind David Ortiz instead of Manny – u can work wonders when u put 2 hitters like Manny and Ortiz back to back – cant be done with Randy Winn
8) A great offensive player has a phychological edge for the team he plays for – and correspondingly a psychological non-edge for the opposition; a great defensive player does not have that edge IMHO (unless its a very small set of players like Torii Hunter or Ozzie Smith – once in a generation type players) – this is very difficult to prove with numbers.
9) continuing on #8 – a great offensive player will provide a much needed lift to the rest of the team – a walk off homerun or two in the course of a season could lift the spirits up for his teammates and may make the team perform better, may create better bonding and energy overall; a great defensive play might give the same “over replacement” SABR number, but it might not provide that inspiration or lift to the rest of the team – this is what is sometimes being called as “chemistry” etc – SABR refuses to acknowledge it, but its there.

Because of positive effects like this (called X factors) the Manny Ramirez of the world will always be huge compared to Randy Winns; whether that helps explain the 20 million $ vs 8 million $ differnce – no, it does not. The SABR numbers prove that Manny should not be paid so much, but lesser. It also shows that a team missing a OF piece need not always spend big bucks to go after Mannies, it has cheaper alternatives who can provide similar value to an extent.

The key is to recognize and appreciate the fact that GREAT offensive players like Manny bring more the plate overall – and that counts a LOT in professional sports.

While we are at it, can M’s also bring back Cameron – so that we can have that dream outfield again, which is perfectly suited for their flyball pitchers like Washburn :-)

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfdux2FC_hs6ROEQ&gid=1

In 2008, Winn is as valuable as the Pirates’ version of Xavier Nady and the Red Sox version of Manny.

If you don’t feel like ponying up the $3 a month for access to BJO, a little googling will usually get you relatively current UZR data, which is pretty similar to Plus/Minus, just with a different data set (Stats Inc. vs BIS).

And, as MGL has noted, if you think the Green Monster is screwing up Manny’s stats, just look at his performances on the road, which are just as horrible. Manny’s an awful defensive outfielder – it’s not the wall.

I feel someone with Winn’s abilities and production are relatively easy to find, and thus doesn’t make him under-appreciated.

None-the-less, remember the effect the Green Monster had on Manny’s defensive stats too. I’d like to see Winn compared to Dunn and Burrell and see how he matches up.