This came up in the Coco Crisp trade thread yesterday afternoon, but I felt like it’s worth a larger mention. It’s one of the things that I see repeated frequently among fans and analysts alike, but it just lacks the validity of it’s claim. I’m referring to the notion that a player who is moved from an up the middle defensive position to a corner defensive position loses a significant amount of value - you’ve probably seen this stated as something like the following:

“David DeJesus is a very good center fielder, but his bat makes him just an average left fielder.”

These kinds of statements are mostly due, in my opinion, to the rise of metrics that compare players against an offensive baseline of other players who play the same position. Since the average hitting LF is significantly better than the average hitting CF, moving a player from CF to LF will make him look quite a bit worse. He’s now getting compared to a better crop of players, so his relative ranking falls.

The problem, however, is that the relative drop in offensive value is almost entirely offset by a relative increase in defensive value.

Let’s look at LF/CF, for instance. Last year, major league left fielders hit .269/.344/.442, while major league center fielders hit .268/.334/.420. Over a full season, the offensive difference between a corner OF and a CF equals about 12-14 runs. Over that same full season, the defensive difference between a corner OF and a CF equals about 9-10 runs.

The net difference in moving a quality defensive CF to a corner OF spot will be a loss of somewhere between 2-5 runs, thanks to the decreased amount of opportunities that CF will get playing in a corner. Of course, if you replace that CF with another CF who is significantly better with the glove, you can get those runs right back by getting the premium defender more opportunities.

We really need to get over this idea that guys like David DeJesus, Carl Crawford, and Ichiro Suzuki lose a significant amount of their value because they’re not playing center field. The difference in their value in CF vs a corner is pretty small, and there are many cases where it certainly makes sense to have a premium defender in an outfield corner.

We have to get away from this notion that a good defender is wasted in a corner. It’s just not true.

The Graduate: Sergio Romo | Born: March 1983 | Left-Handed Pitcher

A former 28th round selection, Sergio Romo has faced an uphill battle to the Major Leagues but he made the most of his opportunities and appeared in 29 games with the Giants in 2008. He allowed just 16 hits in 34 innings with rates of 2.12 BB/9 and 8.74 K/9. His minor league numbers have been almost video-game like with rates of 1.73 BB/9 and 10.06 K/9 in 271.1 career innings. His stuff is underwhelming with a fastball that averages 88.9 mph and a slider at 77.5 mph. He utilized a change-up 3.3% of the time.

The Riser: Madison Bumgarner | Born: August 1989 | Left-Handed Pitcher

The Giants organization knew it had something special with Madison Bumgarner, who was a first round selection out of high school in 2008. He spent the entire year in A-ball and posted an unbelievable 1.46 ERA in 141.2 innings. He allowed 111 hits and posted rates of 1.33 BB/9 and 10.42 K/9. Bumgarner, if he continues to pitch this well, could reach Double-A in 2009. The southpaw’s fastball works in the low 90s most of the time but he can touch 96 mph. His slider and change-up are works in progress.

The Tumbler: Wendell Fairley | Born: March 1988 | Outfielder

Wendell Fairley was considered a bit of a reach at 29th overall in the 2007 draft, as some suggested it was a selection to help the club save money as it had multiple picks in the first two rounds. Fairley struggled to hit in Rookie Ball at the age of 20, with a line of .259/.346/.337 with an ISO of .078. He also stole just seven bases in 52 games. On the plus side, Fairley has a lot of athleticism and showed a willingness to take a walk (11.9 BB%).

The ‘08 Draft Pick: Roger Kieschnick | Born: January 1987 | Outfielder

Roger Kieschnick, the Giants’ third round selection in 2008, signed too late to appear during the regular season so the organization sent him to the fall Hawaii Winter Baseball league. He held his own but struggled to hit for average with a line of .236/.333/.482 with six homers in 110 at-bats. He also struck out 46 times, though. Kieschnick should begin 2009 in A-ball.

The ‘09 Sleeper: Clayton Tanner | Born: December 1987 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Bumgarner and Tim Alderson got a lot of attention in 2008 but Clayton Tanner has some intriguing talent as well. The 20-year-old southpaw was drafted in the third round of the 2006 draft. He has been hittable in his career - 288 hits allowed in 278.1 innings - and has not struck out a ton of batters (6.89 K/9) but there are a number of positives. He has allowed just seven home runs in his career and has excellent control (2.94 BB/9). Tanner features a high 80s fastball that can touch the low 90s, as well as a slider and change-up.

Up Next: The Toronto Blue Jays

The new My Team feature now lets you view your team’s projections. Just click on the “My Projections” link right next to the “My Team” link when you’re logged in and you’ll see the 2009 projections for any player that is on your team, assuming the projection is available.

Just like the My Team feature, you can share your My Team projections with anyone you like by just giving them the web address. For example: Here are the 2009 projections for my fantasy team last year.

To get a customized projection list all you need to do is register and start adding players!

I promise, you won’t hear about this again.

I’ve been nominated for a $10,000 scholarship thanks to the writing I’ve done over at USSMariner.com, which is strangely decided by popular vote. I’m in second place, about 700 votes behind the leader, who has leaned heavily on Daily Kos for his votes. The fact that I’m still without shouting distance after their full court press for him is pretty remarkable.

Anyway, voting closes tonight at 3 AM EST, so if you’re so inclined to vote for me, you can do so now. I probably need 3,000 to 4,000 votes today to overtake the current leader, so every vote counts.

Thanks for your support.

The title to this post is one of the most common sayings amongst baseball fans. It also happens to be the saying that drives me the zaniest, makes me want to bang pots and pans on my head, or tie someone to a chair and force them to watch, on a continuous loop, the film You Got Served. Albert Pujols recently won his second MVP award. The BBWAA got it right, thankfully, but Pujols winning the vote by a final tally of 369-308 was much too close for my liking, regardless of who finished second. Add in that the second place finisher was Ryan Howard of the Phillies and this is when I begin to lose my cool. Keep in mind while reading this article that I am a devout Phillies fan, and that I am not criticizing the writer’s association for a 369-308 final tally, but rather criticizing everyone across the country who felt that Howard truly should have sniffed the MVP award.

To start things off, why did anyone even think Howard deserved the award, or felt he had a good shot of winning, in the first place? He hit 48 home runs and knocked in 146 runners, very gaudy power numbers. This is the first reason. The only other reason conjured up involves… ugh… Howard “hitting when it counted.” Yes, in September, when the Phillies were fighting to get into the playoffs, Howard did more than just endorse Subway: he hit .352/.422/.852, a 1.274 OPS, with 11 home runs. His September performance carried the team into the post-season, where they eventually won the World Series. Because his performance earned the team a playoff berth, he must be highly considered for the award, right? Right?

Is it just me, or does the entire season count? I mean, I know I’m not a rocket scientist (another cliche favorite of mine), but I do know that statistics and performances technically count for the entire duration of the 162-game season. Going off of this, Howard only hit when it counted some of the time, because, for half of the season, he was average or below average. In April, he hit .172/.297/.343, with five home runs. In June, .234/.287/.439, and in August, .213/.328/.463. Even if you ignore the batting average aspect of the slash line and focus on the OBP/SLG, those are not solid months. Those are Ronnie Belliard months. Did anyone stop to think that if Howard had performed even on par with slightly above average offensive players in those three months, that he wouldn’t have needed to carry the Phillies in September?

I mean, sure, we cannot go back and change the course of history like in that Ashton Kutcher movie, but I would venture a guess that if Howard posted even an OPS of .830 in those months, that the Phillies would have been in a great situation entering September with regards to the playoffs. Instead, he was essentially reverse-anchored, and his entire season was evaluated with the final month in mind. The opposite happened to Chase Utley, who went crazy in April/May, and tailed off the rest of the season, still posting great numbers, but built on a performance far from fresh in the minds of fans and voters. Nobody remembers movies or performances from January and February when it comes time to the Academy Awards, and that is pretty much exactly what happened with Utley. Back to Howard, though, who by no means deserved to win the award, or even finish second.

Howard’s WPA/LI this season was 2.93, pretty good, but by no means great. On his own team, here are some other players and their context-neutral win contributions: Chase Utley (3.63), Cole Hamels (2.83), Pat Burrell (2.77), Jayson Werth (2.70). Factor in Brad Lidge’s 5.37 WPA as a closer, and that gives us five other players on the Phillies that were either better than Howard in terms of overall production, or very close to him. Suffice it to say, strong cases were not made for Hamels, Burrell, Utley, or Werth.

His 2.93 WPA/LI ranked 16th in the senior circuit, but where did he rank in some other categories? His home run and RBI totals topped all others in the whole sport, but outside of that, he honestly did not have an impressive season. His OBP ranked 49th, and despite the 48 HR, his SLG finished sixth best. Put together, this slotted him 14th in the OPS department. Howard’s WPA ranked 23rd, and in the fielding department, he finished 12th at the position. For those curious, Pujols ranked either first, second, or third in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, WPA, and WPA/LI, as well as fourth in home runs and ninth in RBIs.

The most interesting statistic I saw involving Howard’s candidacy was this: in 700 PAs, Howard posted a 2.93 WPA/LI, making him about three wins above an average player offensively. In just 229 PAs with the Dodgers, Manny Ramirez posted a 3.10 WPA/LI. And keep in mind that WPA/LI is a counting stat, just like home runs.

Ryan Howard is an important part of the Phillies, and his September performance did carry them into the playoffs; however, strong April numbers would have counted just as much, and likely would have prevented September from meaning as much as it did to the team. For someone to “hit when it counts,” that player should be consistently great all year long, since the entire season counts. I can understand his candidacy in a year when there really isn’t a clear-cut winner for the award, but Pujols was so far ahead of everyone else that it is borderline absurd for certain writers or fans to froth at the mouth over Howard’s exclusion from several ballots. As a fan of his team, I can vouch that without his production, the Phillies wouldn’t have been nearly as good, but the same can be said, if not moreso, for Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge, Pat Burrell, and Jayson Werth.

No matter how you look at it, unless you are advocating giving the MVP award to someone with only one amazing month, Howard did not deserve the award, should not have finished second, and definitely should not have finished that far ahead of Utley.

Bobby Abreu has had an incredibly consistent career, at least from an offensive standpoint. From 1998-2007, his OBP never fell below the .393 mark. He has knocked in 98 or more runners each year since 1999. In that same span he has never recorded less than 35 doubles, a walk rate below 14.5%, or a BABIP lower than .327. Additionally, in the ten seasons from 1999-2008, Abreu has hit the 20 HR-20 SB mark eight times, even reaching the 30-30 mark on two of those occasions. For his career, he is right around a .300/.400/.500 slash line, with 241 home runs, 318 stolen bases, and a WPA/LI of 37.03. When he decides to retire, he will be remembered as a great offensive player, one who never truly became the superstar many felt he could become, but who still put together quite the impressive resume.

Some of these numbers have taken a turn for the worse over the last two seasons, however. His OBP fell to .369 in 2007 and .371 in 2008. His ISO has dropped from .242 in 2004 to .176 right now, which is higher than the .162 posted the year prior. Primarily known for having a great eye at the plate, Abreu’s ability to lay off of pitches out of the zone has diminished as well, as his O-Swing% has risen from 10% in 2005 to 16% over the past two seasons. Almost a direct result, the walk rate, never before lower than 14.5%, was 12.2% in 2007, and just 10.7% in 2008. Essentially, this is a case of an aging player losing the skills that make him effective.

Abreu is now a 34-yr old free agent, who will turn 35 during Spring Training of 2009. According to recent reports, he is seeking a deal worth 45 million dollars spread over three seasons. The Yankees and Mets are both seemingly shying away from his asking price, which brings forth the idea that he just is not worth the investment. If so, what exactly is he worth?

From 2006-08, his WPA/LI is an aggregate 5.73. Using some weighting, I am quite comfortable deeming him as a true talent 1.8 win above average player. Defensively, however, is another story. Via the + - system, Bobby has either been the worst, or among the worst, rightfielders in baseball over the past three seasons, posting a -14, -14, and -24. We’ll call him a true talent -17 fielder, which amounts to about 1.5 wins. Before any adjustments are even made, we are now looking at a player worth about 0.3 wins above average. As a corner outfielder, though, -0.5 wins must be docked via a positional adjustment, and +2.0 wins must be added to give us a total above a replacement player. 1.8 + 2.0 - 0.5 - 1.5 = 1.8.

With this in mind, Bobby Abreu is worth about 1.8 wins above a replacement player. Multiply that total by the 5.5 million dollar per win free agency rate, and the grand total is 9.9 million, which will be rounded up to 10 million. Essentially, based on his true talent level right now, if Abreu were to sign a one year deal, a fee of ten million dollars would be appropriate. Since he is seeking a three-year deal, a 10% discount rate comes into play, deeming an appropriate contract worth 27 million dollars over three seasons. Abreu is currently seeking about 18 million dollars more than he is worth. If some team can convince him to serve as a DH, then his asking price may not be in the realm of the absurd, but 15 million dollars per year for a very bad defensive corner outfielder currently losing the offensive skills that allow him to stay in the lineup should not be very realistic.

Abreu was my favorite Phillies player growing up, and my second favorite player to Greg Maddux, but at this stage in the game, he just isn’t worth what he is asking.

The Graduate: Justin Masterson | Born: March 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

He’s not flashy - but Justin Masterson has the potential to be a beast coming out of the bullpen. The right-hander’s fastball averages out at 89.5 mph but it has incredible sink on it, which causes batters to consistently beat balls into the dirt. In 2008, Masterson allowed just 68 hits in 88.1 innings, along with rates of 4.08 BB/9 and 6.93 K/9. Although he started nine games, the right-hander is better suited for bullpen work where he can focus on his sinking fastball and slider. He used his change-up at the Major League level just 3.1% of the time. Once he cleans up his control, Masterson should really take off.

The Riser: Daniel Bard | Born: June 1985 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Daniel Bard had a horrible 2007 season, which included a 6.42 ERA in A-ball and 56 walks allowed in 61.2 innings. He completely turned things around, though, in 2008 with a shift from starting to relieving. Bard began the year back in A-ball and allowed just 12 hits and four walks in 28 innings. He then moved up to Double-A where he allowed 30 hits in 49.2 innings with rates of 4.71 BB/9 and 11.60 K/9. The control was obviously a little shaky at Double-A, but the potential is there to be a dominating eighth-inning reliever (and eventual closer) with a high-90s fastball and a slider.

The Tumbler: Clay Buchholz | Born: August 1984 | Right-Handed Pitcher

Expectations were high at the beginning of 2008 for Clay Buchholz after he threw the 17th no-hitter in Red Sox history on September 1, 2007 (in just his second big league start). Buchholz, though, ended up back at Double-A in 2008 after posting a 6.75 ERA for the Major League club. He allowed 93 hits in 76 innings and posted rates of 4.86 BB/9 and 8.53 K/9. His fastball velocity was the same as 2007 and he allowed more ground balls but his command suffered, his pitches had less movement and batters made better contact against him (up five percent over 2007). The potential is still there, but Buchholz is in danger of being passed by other pitching prospect in a strong Red Sox system.

The ‘08 Draft Pick: Derrik Gibson | Born: December 1989 | Shortstop

A third-round selection out of high school in 2008, Derrik Gibson had an impressive debut by hitting .309/.398/.394 with 14 stolen bases in 94 at-bats. He also earned a 14-game promotion to A-ball where he struggled and hit .086 (His BABIP was .125). Gibson does not possess much power at this point but he stole 16 bases in 2008 in as many attempts and also showed a good eye at the plate with a walk rate of 14 percent. He has the potential to be a solid top-of-the-order threat.

The ‘09 Sleeper: Nick Hagadone | Born: January 1986 | Left-Handed Pitcher

Nick Hagadone appeared in just three games in 2008 thanks to Tommy John surgery. He showcased his immense talent in those three games by allowing just five hits and striking out 12 in 10 innings. He also dominated in his pro debut in 2007 with a low-to-mid-90s fastball and an excellent slider. Hagadone could be another dominating late-game reliever or he could find success as a starter if he can improve his change-up. He should be fully recovered from surgery by spring and could begin the year in High-A ball.

Up Next: The San Francisco Giants

Batten down the hatches - I’m writing about another Royals trade. Hopefully, this thread goes better than the last one…

According to Sports Radio 810 in Kansas City, the Royals have acquired Coco Crisp from the Red Sox for reliever Ramon Ramirez. Let’s break down both players, win value style.

Crisp has a pretty well established set of skills - He’ll post a BB% around 8%, a K% around 16%, and an ISO around .120. This is the classic groundball/gap power hitter, and not surprisingly, his results are consistent with what we expect from that skillset. He turns 29 in a few weeks, so he’s in his prime, and we shouldn’t expect much of a change going forward.

The Marcel projections has him projected .269/.333/.392 for 2009, good for a .321 wOBA, compared to a league average of .332. This pegs him as a below average hitter, but not a terrible one, worth about ten runs less than an average hitter over a full season. Of course, the Royals aren’t acquiring Crisp for his bat, but for his glove.

The +/- system has Crisp all over the board the last three years: -7 in 2006, +26 in 2007, and -2 in 2008 as a CF. He’s almost certainly not the best defensive center fielder in baseball, but we can’t ignore the fact that he was universally praised as a terrific defensive CF in 2007 and the numbers backed it up. If we just average the three years, we get +5 per year, which makes Crisp an above average CF. I can buy that.

Center fielders also hit worse than league average as a group, so we have to add a positional adjustment of 2.5 runs.

-10 offense, +5 defense, +2.5 position adjustment, +20 replacement level = +17.5 runs, or about 1.75 wins. We probably need to dock Crisp a few runs because of his weak arm (+/- just covers range), so let’s call it +1.5 wins instead. That’s Crisp’s 2009 value, making him a slightly below average player, but still a decently valuable member of a roster.

The Royals didn’t get him for free, however - let’s look at Ramon Ramirez, who was one of the Royals best relief pitchers last year. He posted a 2.84 FIP in 70 innings by racking up a strikeout per inning and, more importantly, not giving up home runs. He only allowed two long balls the whole year. That’s very unlikely to continue going forward (even the best relievers can’t sustain a 3% HR/FB rate), and Marcel projects his HR rate to climb from 0.25 HR/9 to 0.71 HR/9, which is the main reason it projects his FIP at 3.76 going forward.

A 3.76 FIP is great for a starter, but just average for a reliever. You can get a 4.50 FIP from a replacement level reliever, and so over a projected 60 innings, you’re looking at a difference of 5 runs between Ramirez and a replacement level reliever. We have to multiply those five runs by 1.5 to account for the extra leverage of the situations he’ll likely be used in, but even still, that only makes him a +.75 win pitcher.

The Royals clearly got the better player here, turning a decent but not great reliever into an almost league average center fielder. The fact that Crisp is owed $5.75 million for 2009 while Ramirez won’t make much makes this trade less of an outright steal for Kansas City, but Crisp is still more of a value than Ramirez is.

That doesn’t make this a bad trade for Boston, necessarily - they didn’t have a full time job to offer Crisp, and so they turned a superfluous bench player into a solid enough cheap reliever. But this is more of a lateral move for the Red Sox and a pretty decent step up for the Royals.

I give the edge to Kansas City in this one.

Well, I cannot say I am surprised, or even that upset. No, not because Dustin Pedroia was worthy of being named MVP, he wasn’t. It’s because I just cannot muster up much surprise when the BBWAA returns votes in this manner. Pedroia played in a big market, he had teammates and media members talking him up, he found himself to qualities like hustle, clutch, undersized, and the like. Despite the overwhelming stumping going on in his favor, he came across as the underdog candidate.

He should have been the underdog candidate, because he wasn’t the best choice for MVP. You want to talk numbers? Pedroia was 10th in RC/27. He played in a park skewed in his favor. He was 16th in WPA/LI. You want to talk pure value? Pedroia ranks 9th in WPA among AL-only players, 10th if you toss in Mark Teixeira’s combined figures. Here is the entirety of Dustin Pedroia’s case to be named the AL MVP: He was first in clutch. That’s it. Joe Mauer (superior to Pedroia in nearly, if not all, meaningful category, was second. Joe Mauer is a catcher, a position worth about an extra win’s worth of value over second base.

Let us repeat our exercise from yesterday. Sorting by WPA, here’s the top five players in the AL for 2008 with their finish in the MVP voting in parenthesis:
1.Cliff Lee (12th)
2.Joe Mauer (4th)
3.Carlos Pena (9th)
4.Justin Morneau (2nd)
5.Carlos Quentin (5th)

I can excuse Cliff Lee from not getting more recognition. I am of the belief that the Cy Young is the award for pitchers and thus they shouldn’t be in the discussion for MVP. And overall, it looks pretty solid. The screw-up is that the actual MVP winner isn’t among those five names.

Now here’s the top five vote getters for MVP in the NL with their WPA rank in parenthesis:
1.Dustin Pedroia (9th)
2.Justin Morneau (4th)
3.Kevin Youkilis (21st)
4.Joe Mauer (2nd)
5.Carlos Quentin (5th)

Clearly, these people were good beyond any quantifiable means, and were able to single-handedly will their teams to contention by the sheer force of their personality and courage and valor. That’s why they got these MVP votes. Defense? Value? WOBA? BRAA? Nah, those have nothing on grit and scrappiness.

For the umpteenth time, even though it will not deter people from claiming it, I am not saying that Dustin Pedroia is bad or that he didn’t have a great season. He isn’t and he did. I am saying he wasn’t the MVP by any reasonable (and even most unreasonable) criteria. Joe Mauer probably should have won and even though he wasn’t above his league to the extent that Albert Pujols was, that doesn’t put a damper on Pedroia being the wrong choice.

Reports recently circulated that Pedro Martinez definitely plans on pitching in 2009, if not longer than that. Having just turned 37 years old, he certainly would not be the oldest pitcher in the major leagues next season; however, based on his performance this season, the supremely dominant Pedro is long gone. With that in mind, what type of contract should he sign? Or, then again, what would be reasonable, given his track record as well as his most recent performance? I’m sure the Mets will make some type of offer to him, be it half-hearted or not, but if he wants to pitch next season, you better believe he will be able to find a home.

In 2006-07, since he made just five starts in ‘07 alone, Pedro started 28 games, threw for 160.2 innings, and surrendered 141 hits, 19 of which were home runs. He walked 46 and fanned 169 hitters. This resulted in a 4.15 ERA and 3.67 FIP, still very solid. Last year, however, things took a turn for the worse. In 20 starts and 109 innings, his K/BB dipped below 2.0, and he posted a 5.61 ERA and 5.18 FIP. Given that we estimate replacement level to be a 5.50 FIP, Pedro was pretty darn close to being a replacement level pitcher last season.

The marcel projections for next season are now available here, and they are not too optimistic regarding Martinez. Marcel has Pedro pegged for 117 IP with a 4.85 ERA and 4.57 FIP. Based on his FIP, Pedro is projected to give up 60 runs in 117 innings pitched next season. How does that stack up with the replacement level? Well, unlike Dave’s recent posts on Sabathia and Burnett, both of whom are projected for 180+ IP, Pedro is slotted to log a significantly lesser amount of innings. Since he is only projected to pitch in 117 innings, we cannot use the 160 inning replacement benchmark. Instead, we will adjust the replacement level starter to amass Pedro’s projected innings total.

In other free agent value posts, the replacement starter and reliever came into play since manager’s will have a quicker hook with replacement level starters. In Pedro’s case, we are assuming he will miss starts entirely, not get a quick yank out of the game. Now, we compare Pedro’s 117 innings to that of the replacement level starter:

Pedro Martinez: 117 IP, 60 runs allowed
Replacement SP:117 IP, 72 runs allowed

Put together, Pedro is projected to be twelve runs better than the replacement level next season, or one win above replacement. If free agents are going for the rate of 5.5 million dollars per win, then Martinez should sign a deal worth 5.5 million. Add in his name value and his “veteran leadership” and we can bump that up to at least 6 mil, perhaps even 6.5 mil.

I would tend to think the 10% discount for a multi-year deal would not apply here, as it would be more appropriate for Pedro to sign something like a 1 yr-6 mm deal, laden with incentives. He may not be the dominant force he once was, but there will likely be plenty of teams willing to take flyers on him for next season, if not more than that.