Comments on: WPA #1: DeJesus Provides Sorrow For Morrow http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Mon, 13 Feb 2012 01:36:52 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: lournollows http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-110416 lournollows Mon, 30 Nov 2009 15:28:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-110416 Good post, good looking website, added it to my favs!! Good post, good looking website, added it to my favs!!

]]> By: ujh734 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51364 ujh734 Thu, 13 Nov 2008 00:33:12 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51364 Run expectancy. That said, Appelman's park factors are horrible. You suck, Appelman. Run expectancy. That said, Appelman’s park factors are horrible. You suck, Appelman.

]]> By: LarryinLA http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51355 LarryinLA Wed, 12 Nov 2008 23:46:11 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51355 Fun series. That said, let's review the top 3 plays: #1: 2-run, 2-out homer, runner on first, down 4-3: 90.36% #2: 2-run, 2-out homer, runner on first, down 2-1: 90.05% #3: 2-run, 2-out homer, runner on first, down 5-4: 89.95% (In 10th inning) Is there someway to explain why these have different WPA? Because they look identical to me. I could believe the number of runs scored might change the probabilities a little, as it might suggest weather conditions, pitcher usage, umpiring or some other factor. But, it would certainly make the game with the lowest total score the most difficult comeback, I'd think. The gap between #2 and #3 is awful small for that kind of effect. I think this is false precision of some sort, no? Still fun. Fun series. That said, let’s review the top 3 plays:

#1: 2-run, 2-out homer, runner on first, down 4-3: 90.36%
#2: 2-run, 2-out homer, runner on first, down 2-1: 90.05%
#3: 2-run, 2-out homer, runner on first, down 5-4: 89.95%
(In 10th inning)

Is there someway to explain why these have different WPA? Because they look identical to me. I could believe the number of runs scored might change the probabilities a little, as it might suggest weather conditions, pitcher usage, umpiring or some other factor. But, it would certainly make the game with the lowest total score the most difficult comeback, I’d think. The gap between #2 and #3 is awful small for that kind of effect. I think this is false precision of some sort, no?

Still fun.

]]> By: devil_fingers http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51330 devil_fingers Wed, 12 Nov 2008 19:47:54 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51330 A decisive blow in the Battle for Grass Creek! July 12 was the Mariners Stalingrad! A decisive blow in the Battle for Grass Creek! July 12 was the Mariners Stalingrad!

]]> By: Jason T http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51309 Jason T Wed, 12 Nov 2008 17:19:20 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51309 Or, as the case may be, blowing those opportunities. Go M's. *sigh* Or, as the case may be, blowing those opportunities. Go M’s. *sigh*

]]> By: Scappy http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51300 Scappy Wed, 12 Nov 2008 15:17:32 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-1-dejesus-provides-sorrow-for-morrow/#comment-51300 There should be a bias towards the bottom half of the league as those teams are more often than not trailing in the final frame leading to more opportunities for late game heroics. There should be a bias towards the bottom half of the league as those teams are more often than not trailing in the final frame leading to more opportunities for late game heroics.

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