Comments on: WPA #8: What!? Another Pirate? http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-8-what-another-pirate/ Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary Sun, 12 Feb 2012 22:26:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Yeah http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-8-what-another-pirate/#comment-50426 Yeah Thu, 06 Nov 2008 05:54:18 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-8-what-another-pirate/#comment-50426 What kind of ****ty system gives a 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3K, 2 BB, 2 HR outing a 0 while giving a near-identical 6 IP, 6 H, 5K, 2 BB, 1 HR outing a 5? From a linear weights standpoint, there's only about 1.2 runs separating the two performances and yet one's a gem and the other an unequivocal bomb. It's too black and white. Where are the shades of gray? Imagine calculating QB Rating like that: 1 point if completion percentage ≥ 65%, 1 point if yards per attempt ≥ 8, etc. What a completely useless tool that would be. Speaking of Ron Shandler... What kind of ****ty system gives a 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 3K, 2 BB, 2 HR outing a 0 while giving a near-identical 6 IP, 6 H, 5K, 2 BB, 1 HR outing a 5? From a linear weights standpoint, there’s only about 1.2 runs separating the two performances and yet one’s a gem and the other an unequivocal bomb. It’s too black and white. Where are the shades of gray?

Imagine calculating QB Rating like that: 1 point if completion percentage ≥ 65%, 1 point if yards per attempt ≥ 8, etc. What a completely useless tool that would be. Speaking of Ron Shandler…

]]> By: obsessivegiantscompulsive http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-8-what-another-pirate/#comment-50400 obsessivegiantscompulsive Thu, 06 Nov 2008 01:13:32 +0000 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wpa-8-what-another-pirate/#comment-50400 Regarding quality starts, I don't like the old definition of that (7+IP, 3- ER), nor even the modernized one (6+ IP, 3- ER). I like the PQS methodology that Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster publication introduced and produces research on. It is a Quality Start built on sabermetric principles. The methodology is very simple and easy to do by hand once you practice it: http://www.baseballhq.com/free/free03.shtml?src=hqf. Here are the bare bones: 0 to 5 system. One point each for: 1) 6+ IP (automatic 0 for less than 5 IP) 2) IP >= H 3) K > IP - 2 4) K >= 2*BB 5) HR <= 1 Score of 0 or 1 is considered a DISaster start. Score of 4 or 5 is considered a DOMinating start. And the score is not dependent on the ER given up, kind of like FIP. Thus Duke's outing would be scored a "2" for 6 IP and no HR given up. Kuroka's outing would be scored a "3" for 6 IP, more than double K than BB, and one HR given up. For Kuroda to get a DOM start, he would either have to pitch one more inning with no hits and at most one walk, or strike out four batters in the 7th or alternatively 5 more in the 7th and 8th, without giving up a HR and at most 2 walks. Regarding quality starts, I don’t like the old definition of that (7+IP, 3- ER), nor even the modernized one (6+ IP, 3- ER).

I like the PQS methodology that Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster publication introduced and produces research on. It is a Quality Start built on sabermetric principles.

The methodology is very simple and easy to do by hand once you practice it: http://www.baseballhq.com/free/free03.shtml?src=hqf.

Here are the bare bones: 0 to 5 system. One point each for:

1) 6+ IP (automatic 0 for less than 5 IP)
2) IP >= H
3) K > IP – 2
4) K >= 2*BB
5) HR <= 1

Score of 0 or 1 is considered a DISaster start.
Score of 4 or 5 is considered a DOMinating start.

And the score is not dependent on the ER given up, kind of like FIP.

Thus Duke’s outing would be scored a “2″ for 6 IP and no HR given up.
Kuroka’s outing would be scored a “3″ for 6 IP, more than double K than BB, and one HR given up.

For Kuroda to get a DOM start, he would either have to pitch one more inning with no hits and at most one walk, or strike out four batters in the 7th or alternatively 5 more in the 7th and 8th, without giving up a HR and at most 2 walks.

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