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	<title>Comments on: WS Coverage: Philadelphia&#8217;s Lineup Construction</title>
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	<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/</link>
	<description>Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary</description>
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		<title>By: WY</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104831</link>
		<dc:creator>WY</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Oct 2009 04:08:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104831</guid>
		<description>They&#039;ve been batting them 3 and 4 all year. If they wanted to split them up and bat Howard 5th, then they&#039;d wind up with Howard and Ibanez back-to back--unless they wanted to move Ibanez down to the 7 spot. 

The Twins did the same thing, and often had their best three (not two) lefty hitters in a row (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel). The Phillies also did this with Utley, Howard, and Ibanez in many games. I think the slight platoon advantages might be countered by the number of extra at-bats these hitters get by being one spot up in the order. 

I agree that it&#039;s not ideal, but I think that the alternatives for both the Twins and the Phillies, at least in regard to their three and four hitters, are not very compelling. It&#039;s not as if the Yankees have an absolute shutdown lefty -- Marte and Coke may be &quot;adequate,&quot; but they&#039;re not much more than that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They&#8217;ve been batting them 3 and 4 all year. If they wanted to split them up and bat Howard 5th, then they&#8217;d wind up with Howard and Ibanez back-to back&#8211;unless they wanted to move Ibanez down to the 7 spot. </p>
<p>The Twins did the same thing, and often had their best three (not two) lefty hitters in a row (Mauer, Morneau, Kubel). The Phillies also did this with Utley, Howard, and Ibanez in many games. I think the slight platoon advantages might be countered by the number of extra at-bats these hitters get by being one spot up in the order. </p>
<p>I agree that it&#8217;s not ideal, but I think that the alternatives for both the Twins and the Phillies, at least in regard to their three and four hitters, are not very compelling. It&#8217;s not as if the Yankees have an absolute shutdown lefty &#8212; Marte and Coke may be &#8220;adequate,&#8221; but they&#8217;re not much more than that.</p>
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		<title>By: fan</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104805</link>
		<dc:creator>fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 23:58:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104805</guid>
		<description>CAN&#039;T WAIT TO HEAR ABOUT STAIRS STARTING OVER FRANCISCO!!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>CAN&#8217;T WAIT TO HEAR ABOUT STAIRS STARTING OVER FRANCISCO!!!</p>
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		<title>By: fan</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104803</link>
		<dc:creator>fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 23:52:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104803</guid>
		<description>Bill... you are missing the point.  You have to consider that it may have worked in the past for the appropriate reasons, basically, assuming Manuel is smart and it taks more than reading data to put together a World Series team, which he understands and is showing that he is good at.

One thing we aren&#039;t considering, and bloggers rarely do, is that Utley and Ibanez (or maybe just Utley in this case) not only perform well against lefties, but also feel comfortable and take good swings against lefties, two things that say a lot more about their future success than their career LOOGY splits....</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bill&#8230; you are missing the point.  You have to consider that it may have worked in the past for the appropriate reasons, basically, assuming Manuel is smart and it taks more than reading data to put together a World Series team, which he understands and is showing that he is good at.</p>
<p>One thing we aren&#8217;t considering, and bloggers rarely do, is that Utley and Ibanez (or maybe just Utley in this case) not only perform well against lefties, but also feel comfortable and take good swings against lefties, two things that say a lot more about their future success than their career LOOGY splits&#8230;.</p>
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		<title>By: PhD Brian</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104760</link>
		<dc:creator>PhD Brian</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:04:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104760</guid>
		<description>I agree.  the fallacious leap here is that the stats the players got this season would have been the same even with the change in lineup. It may, in fact, be that Utley would have hit lefties harder had he not batted next to Howard, or maybe he would have hit them much less. You can not know for sure, so using this seasons stats to say the lineup would be better this way or that for a game this season is really pretty meaningless.  Basically, your doing a different experiment and expecting the same results.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree.  the fallacious leap here is that the stats the players got this season would have been the same even with the change in lineup. It may, in fact, be that Utley would have hit lefties harder had he not batted next to Howard, or maybe he would have hit them much less. You can not know for sure, so using this seasons stats to say the lineup would be better this way or that for a game this season is really pretty meaningless.  Basically, your doing a different experiment and expecting the same results.</p>
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		<title>By: jak440</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104748</link>
		<dc:creator>jak440</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:37:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104748</guid>
		<description>My apologies, my nerves are a bit jangly today. I just wish it were possible to have a reasoned discussion about these things without it devolving into, &quot;Well the numbers say this so LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-I-CAN&#039;T-HEAR-YOU&quot;

I understand the difference between correlation and causation, but clearly what you are taking my point to an absurd length. So was Chuck. If the conditions of a situation have changed, then you absolutely must adapt your approach. If Pete Rose was still an elite baseball player, I&#039;d be happy to have him in the lineup tonight. If Jamie Moyer were still a quality starting pitcher, I&#039;d be happy to have him pitch game three. But things change, skills erode and good teams must adapt.

I don&#039;t think the Phillies have an optimized lineup, because that would likely entail Ryan Howard hitting fifth. I&#039;d really hate to lose a game because he didn&#039;t get a chance to hit being that far down in the order. With so much of their power coming from the left side, juggling the lineup is always going to be tough. As stated, I also don&#039;t want Utley hitting second because I think it marginalizes his power.

Though I don&#039;t know what results juggling the lineup would have, I know what results the current lineup has produced. In a seven game sample, it seems crazy to open yourself up to the potential consequences of a change when there is really no reason to do so. Make this argument at the beginning of next spring and that&#039;s fine, but not before game 2 of the World Series.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My apologies, my nerves are a bit jangly today. I just wish it were possible to have a reasoned discussion about these things without it devolving into, &#8220;Well the numbers say this so LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-I-CAN&#8217;T-HEAR-YOU&#8221;</p>
<p>I understand the difference between correlation and causation, but clearly what you are taking my point to an absurd length. So was Chuck. If the conditions of a situation have changed, then you absolutely must adapt your approach. If Pete Rose was still an elite baseball player, I&#8217;d be happy to have him in the lineup tonight. If Jamie Moyer were still a quality starting pitcher, I&#8217;d be happy to have him pitch game three. But things change, skills erode and good teams must adapt.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t think the Phillies have an optimized lineup, because that would likely entail Ryan Howard hitting fifth. I&#8217;d really hate to lose a game because he didn&#8217;t get a chance to hit being that far down in the order. With so much of their power coming from the left side, juggling the lineup is always going to be tough. As stated, I also don&#8217;t want Utley hitting second because I think it marginalizes his power.</p>
<p>Though I don&#8217;t know what results juggling the lineup would have, I know what results the current lineup has produced. In a seven game sample, it seems crazy to open yourself up to the potential consequences of a change when there is really no reason to do so. Make this argument at the beginning of next spring and that&#8217;s fine, but not before game 2 of the World Series.</p>
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		<title>By: BATTLETANK</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104745</link>
		<dc:creator>BATTLETANK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:23:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104745</guid>
		<description>he probably has some sort of belief that hitting after feliz he&#039;ll get pitched to differently.  since  he&#039;s had success batting after feliz.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>he probably has some sort of belief that hitting after feliz he&#8217;ll get pitched to differently.  since  he&#8217;s had success batting after feliz.</p>
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		<title>By: devil_fingers</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104741</link>
		<dc:creator>devil_fingers</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:12:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104741</guid>
		<description>&quot;Think for myself?&quot; Well, it sounds crazy, but I might just try it. Sorry for making a joke that offended you so much you had to call me stupid.

Doing what they did last year = &quot;thinking for yourself.&quot;

A logic course seems like a great idea. Please tell me exactly which modus ponens, destructive syllogism, etc. I missed! Perhaps you prefer Aristotelian to Fregean logic? Which is more preferable for baseball?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Think for myself?&#8221; Well, it sounds crazy, but I might just try it. Sorry for making a joke that offended you so much you had to call me stupid.</p>
<p>Doing what they did last year = &#8220;thinking for yourself.&#8221;</p>
<p>A logic course seems like a great idea. Please tell me exactly which modus ponens, destructive syllogism, etc. I missed! Perhaps you prefer Aristotelian to Fregean logic? Which is more preferable for baseball?</p>
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		<title>By: jak440</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104739</link>
		<dc:creator>jak440</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 20:09:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104739</guid>
		<description>Once again, this is the kind of condescending stupidity that makes it hard for those of us who are reasonable to sell sabermetrics to the mainstream. Obviously, you&#039;ve never taken a logic course.

You can think for yourself once in a while, y&#039;know? You don&#039;t have to drink every last drop of the saber kool-aid.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Once again, this is the kind of condescending stupidity that makes it hard for those of us who are reasonable to sell sabermetrics to the mainstream. Obviously, you&#8217;ve never taken a logic course.</p>
<p>You can think for yourself once in a while, y&#8217;know? You don&#8217;t have to drink every last drop of the saber kool-aid.</p>
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		<title>By: MGL</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104737</link>
		<dc:creator>MGL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:50:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104737</guid>
		<description>Ruiz is a much better hitter for any sample size &quot;neuter.&quot;  Feliz is one of the worst hitters in baseball.  Yes, he should be batting 9th unless it is better to bat your worst hitter in an AL lineup 8th, which it may be.  I don&#039;t know.  It is a little surprising that Manuel would bat Ruiz 9th as most managers automatically bat their worst hitters 9th.  I can&#039;t imagine that he thinks that Feliz is better than Ruiz.

And yes, splitting up Utley and Howard, especially in the post-season (when opposing managers are constantly looking to bring in LOOGYs and ROOGYs) is probably the correct thing to do.  But, there is NO way that Manuel is going to split them since they have been together for so long and the Phillies have been so successful.  No way.

By the same token, Matsui and Cano should be split up as well, even though they both have small &quot;true&quot; splits I think.  No reason not to have Swisher hit in between them.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ruiz is a much better hitter for any sample size &#8220;neuter.&#8221;  Feliz is one of the worst hitters in baseball.  Yes, he should be batting 9th unless it is better to bat your worst hitter in an AL lineup 8th, which it may be.  I don&#8217;t know.  It is a little surprising that Manuel would bat Ruiz 9th as most managers automatically bat their worst hitters 9th.  I can&#8217;t imagine that he thinks that Feliz is better than Ruiz.</p>
<p>And yes, splitting up Utley and Howard, especially in the post-season (when opposing managers are constantly looking to bring in LOOGYs and ROOGYs) is probably the correct thing to do.  But, there is NO way that Manuel is going to split them since they have been together for so long and the Phillies have been so successful.  No way.</p>
<p>By the same token, Matsui and Cano should be split up as well, even though they both have small &#8220;true&#8221; splits I think.  No reason not to have Swisher hit in between them.</p>
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		<title>By: Logan</title>
		<link>http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ws-coverage-philadelphias-lineup-construction/#comment-104728</link>
		<dc:creator>Logan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Oct 2009 19:07:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/?p=10824#comment-104728</guid>
		<description>...which is why we don&#039;t all &quot;live&quot; by that phrase, we follow it in cases where it applies. This is such a case. Just like I said (&quot;I think this is a CASE of...&quot;).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230;which is why we don&#8217;t all &#8220;live&#8221; by that phrase, we follow it in cases where it applies. This is such a case. Just like I said (&#8220;I think this is a CASE of&#8230;&#8221;).</p>
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