Anytime a new offensive statistic or function is added to the site, I tend to gravitate to Barry Bonds’ page to see what the outer bounds look like. The splits function is no different.

For instance, did you know that in his 268 high leverage plate appearances Bonds was walked intentionally 58 times. All told, Bonds walked in 42.2% of his total plate appearances. When he did hit, his ISO was a ridiculous .360. That’s good for a 1.354 OPS and a .524 wOBA. I don’t know if people will reference these numbers in 200 years after reading up on baseball history (folklore by then) and how Buck Showalter walked him with the bases loaded, but if they do, such a factoid should help to create understanding, if not acceptance.

Even the immortal saw the typical platoon advantage, which is to say that the left-handed Bonds was superior against righties. A .492 wOBA against them versus only a .480 wOBA against lefties suggests the Giants wasted a golden opportunity for a platoon. Bonds was more discriminatinh when it came to hitting the ball hard in certain directions. He hit the ball well to right (.524), center (.513), but not nearly as well to left (.394). Of course, a .394 wOBA is nearly .020 points higher than Evan Longoria’s career wOBA, but this is Bonds we’re talking about. Unacceptable, Barry.

Somehow he hit more home runs at home (one more, to be exact) than he did on the road. This came in light of nearly 40 fewer plate appearances at home, too, and while playing in one of the more homer-constricting parks in the National League. Oh, and this, well, this I just have to replicate in full These are Bonds’ 2002 month-by-month wOBA figures:

April: .563
May: .509
June: .536
July: .514
August: .607
September/October: .530

A .509 wOBA was a down month for him. Goodness gracious … goodness gracious.

As most of you are probably aware, player pages now feature splits. As such, we’re beginning a splits blitz which should educate our readers as to the many different usages of the newest toy. Home and road splits are probably the most commonly used and misused of all splits. Here I would like to show why just using career home/road splits to evaluate a batter isn’t a good idea.

A quick Google search of Matt Holliday + home/road splits brings back multiple results from this very chunk of the internet. For his career, Holliday has hit .351/.420/.632 at home and .284/.353/.455 on the road in 1,860 and 1,778 plate appearances apiece. It’s fair to say that he has performed better at home. Holliday has spent the majority of his career – read: every season but his last – playing home games inside of Coors Field.

That factoid helps explain some of the difference between his .442 home wOBA and .353 road wOBA, but not all. Far too often folks point out a player hitting worse on the road as an indictment on his talent, or as a doubt in his ability. The reality is that most players hit worse on the road. In 2009, the average major leaguer hit .267/.340/.430 at home and .258/.326/.406 on the road. The exact reasoning can be debated for eons; the point is the home field advantage does exist and Holliday was no exception to the rule:

Home: 8.9% BB, 17.1% SO, .281 ISO, .378 BABIP, 20.4% HR/FB, .442 wOBA
Away: 8.9% BB, 20.4% SO, .171 ISO, .329 BABIP, 12.3% HR/FB, .353 wOBA

Leading up to his trade, people referenced the career numbers – in part as an adjustment to the small sample sizes naturally associated by slicing and dicing an already small dataset. In theory, 1,000 plate appearances over five years is worth more than 600 over three, but when dealing with past data and attempting to find the true talent level of a player, we have to weigh the most recent data the heaviest, something lost in this method.

The other big issue was that people took the road numbers as gospel, applying no adjustments or considerations to the numbers and completely ignoring obvious factors. For instance, Holliday’s road numbers excluded Coors. Meanwhile every other National League hitter would have those numbers included in their road totals. That means Holliday’s road numbers were naturally deflated just based on the ballparks he batted in.

Just using his career numbers, nobody would’ve predicted that Holliday could succeed to the tune of a .412 home wOBA in another environment, or that he would post a .367 road wOBA. That’s not to say that either of those numbers are his true talent levels, either. It is to say that while understanding park factors and how particular parks can affect batters (and pitchers) is important, that simply looking at career home/road splits as the gospel is not the best way to evaluate whether a batter is a figment of the park’s construction or simply behaving like most major leaguers.

I would recommend simply allowing the built-in park adjustments within projection systems do the math for you while exercising common sense in extreme cases.

Red Sox sign Joe Nelson

This marks the third time Nelson and the Red Sox have came together on a deal. Nelson actually pitched in three games for the Red Sox in 2004, before shuffling off to Kansas City, Florida and, most recently, Tampa Bay. He is best known as the master of the Vulcan change – think an extreme split-finger grip – and perhaps the funniest reliever in the game:

6. Have you ever played as yourself on a video game?
JN: Yes! Didn’t do well, either. I’m not good at video games, but I think it’s MLB 2002 was the first time — it was the one with Derek Jeter on the cover, and somebody called me and said, “Dude, you’re in this game.” I ran over to their place and I was like, “I wanna pitch with myself.” First ball I threw, I threw for a strike. Then, when you’re not very good — A, I’m not very good, but B, they didn’t make my character very good — I got tired after like three pitches and started getting hit around the ballpark. I’m like, “This is a really realistic game!” But yeah, I did it once. Other people have called me and yelled at me, said, “Your guy is not very good in this game!” I know. Sometimes I trick ‘em, sometimes I don’t.

Nelson struggled in 40 innings with the Rays. 12% of the fly balls he allowed went over the fence and he frequently lost the strike zone, even in the minors. Nelson also lost some zip on his already somber fastball. Guys with history of arm injuries are always wild cards and Nelson is no different. On a minor league deal, though, it’s hard to find fault in the depth.

Rays claim Mike Ekstrom off waivers

Formerly of the Padres, and formerly a starter, Ekstrom spent most of 2009 in between Portland and San Diego’s bullpens. He pitched well in the minors and has some traits that could be useful in a middle relief role. He’s a short righty (5’11”) with a low-90s fastball and pretty decent slider that leads to groundballs – over 50% in the minors and just shy of 50% in a small sample size of 28 MLB innings. Even Chad Harville racked up 175 appearances with similar traits, so there’s hope yet.

Orioles retain Dennis Sarfate

He’s one of those guys that is older than you think (turns 29 in two months) and is already with his third organization since 2006. He throws hard though and generally that’s enough for someone to lay claim.

It took a while, but Jeff Weaver has finally stepped in from the rain.

Yesterday, he rejoined the Dodgers, but not on a Major League deal; oh no, on a minor league deal. The inking is a pyrrhic victory at best for Weaver, who actually did pitch in the Majors last season, and pitched pretty well at that. That the best he could net was an invite to spring training and a chance at maybe making the opening day roster seems a bit odd.

Weaver appeared in 28 games, starting seven of them, and compiling 79 innings and a 4.07 FIP. By my rough napkin calculations, Weaver’s reliever FIP was roughly 3.77, albeit in a lacking sample size. Still, the interest in the 33-year-old was nearly non-existent.

He’s always fended off batters of the same hand with great success. Remember, Weaver has made 274 starts, yet his platoon splits read as such:

RHB: .257/.304/.385 (3,650 PA)
LHB: .295/.359/.501 (4,121 PA)

Over the last three years those splits have still held mostly true, albeit in much smaller sample sizes. Fittingly, Dave Cameron just wrote about platoons and bullpens yesterday, which is something that can be discussed and applied to this signing. Weaver is a ROOGY, or at least, the right-handed version of a lefty specialist. These types can come in handy, since most batters are of similar dexterity and this gives Weaver the perceived edge, but types like Weaver are also the most fungible reliever type around.

The Dodgers already have a pretty fantastic pen, which means Weaver is by no means a safe bet to break camp in the bigs. Even if he starts in Las Vegas, it’s a nice piece of depth to have. After all, the Dodgers had seven relievers last season who made at least 20 appearances and had an above average leverage index, the most of any team ranked in the top 10 of bullpen FIP.

Willy Taveras is jobless. Not for too long, since the A’s will either lose him on waivers — not sure lose is the right word here — or he could find himself in Triple-A. His employment in limbo stems, in large part, because his on-base percentage was .275 last season. Here’s some food for thought. Zack Greinke was pretty much the best pitcher in the American League last season. Greinke’s on-base percentage against was .276. That means, Taveras got on base less against all pitchers faced than the rest of baseball did against the league’s best pitcher.

Some of that horrid mark involved disobedience by never walking and the other part seems to be poor luck. A .278 BABIP is well below his career norms, and his previous low was twenty points higher. Taveras is a slap hitter who is at his best when he’s hitting the ball on the ground and using his legs to secure singles. Bunts have always been a part of his game, but his execution last year was the worst he’s had throughout his major league career. Failure to reach on two-thirds of his bunt attempts wasn’t the only batted ball issue Taveras had, for whatever reasons, 20% of his fly balls were of the infield variety – about as close to a sure out as you can get.

Taveras can still be useful though. That seems like a thought shared by those who think Socrates is a clothing brand, but it’s true. The problem for Taveras is how late he joins the fray. A team could claim him on waivers, or look towards similar players – like, say, the recovering Endy Chavez – and save a 40-man roster spot as well as cash. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Taveras fill out some National League team’s bench. It does surprise me that Taveras racked up nearly 400 plate appearances as the Reds’ leadoff man.

I guess there’s nothing like starting every game by facing Zack Greinke.

Consider this about Gabe Gross’ $750K contract: Mark Kotsay will be making double that next year while providing fewer than half the value.

I’ve enjoyed watching and writing about Gross to almost hyperbolic levels. He’s a fantastic athlete, one who actually played quarterback for the University of Auburn, and has more range than a soprano. His arm isn’t half bad either. Offensively, Gross will strikeout a bit while walking and hitting the occasional home run. He rarely goes outside of the strike zone to chase a bad pitch. He’s largely ineffective against southpaws, making him a platoon player and defensive replacement on any consciously managed team.

There seems to be two chief concerns about Gross on the A’s:

1) The Athletics already have three defensive wizards in their outfield

2) The Athletics also have Travis Buck

Let’s address the second point first. Buck had a fine entrance to the Majors back in 2007 producing 2.3 WAR. Since then injuries have absolutely sunk any hopes of dependability the A’s can put on the 26-year-old. In fact, he has fewer plate appearances since 2007 for the A’s as Gross did last year. The hope for Buck is basically to be Gross: an average hitting corner outfielder with above average defensive abilities. Since the A’s appear able to make a run at the division this year, Gross seems to provide more reliability, even if Buck’s upside is higher.

The first point is one people constantly harp on with the Mariners, too. Runs are runs. If there’s any ballpark in America that can handle three range-blessed outfielders at once, it’s the canyon Oakland plays inside of. If two of the fielders overlap constantly, have one take a few steps away. Gross doesn’t have to live up to his CHONE projections to be worth the contract.

Matt Klaasen ran through the math in more vivid color than I will here, but there’s little room for failure when evaluating this deal in WAR to dollar terms.

Three outfielders of youth and future notoriety today: Kyle Blanks, Matthew Joyce, and Michael Saunders.

Some people are going to take this the wrong way, but I’d definitely nominate Blanks and Saunders for the Reggie Cleveland All-Star team.

Any ink spilled over the Florida Marlins usually pertains to ownership, fire sales, or (until recently) relocation ideas. Their front office consistently works under a mysterious shroud and probably doesn’t get the due they deserve because of their economic standing. When one references Andrew Friedman or Billy Beane, the usual statement that follows is, “Imagine if they had Brian Cashman’s payroll.” With the Marlins, it’s more like, “Imagine if they had the Rays’ payroll.”

One of the areas the Fish seemingly succeed at – and rightfully so – is finding cheap relievers. Some of the skill is simply adaptation, since the Marlins wear gloves when looking at the more expensive options just to ensure they aren’t forced to purchase the product after a stain or smudge appears. They may as well wear Isotoners. Only three relievers have received more than $2M from the Marlins in one season since 2005. For comparison, the Pittsburgh Pirates had the third lowest payroll in the majors last season, and they had two relievers making more than $2M.

Here’s how the Marlins have ranked in reliever ERA and FIP in each season, with steady improvement noted:

2005: 27th in ERA, 16th in FIP
2006: 24th in ERA, 23rd in FIP
2007: 15th in ERA, 17th in FIP
2008: 12th in ERA, 17th in FIP
2009: 11th in ERA, 10th in FIP

The line of one-and-done relievers since 2005 is startling, with its length making John Calipari blush. First came Todd Jones, then Joe Borowski and Matt Herges, then Joe Nelson, then finally Doug Waechter, Brendan Donnelly, and Kiko Calero. Throw in a few extended stays, like Justin Miller and Kevin Gregg, and the picture becomes clear.

Even with rumors of Gregg potentially returning, the Marlins have added a few arms who look like the next junkyard rental. First came Scott Strickland, who’s pitched well since flaming out with the Houston Astros in 2005. Then Clay Hensley, technically a re-signing who spent most of his 2009 starting with the Marlins Triple-A affiliate. A pair of power arms followed, with Jose Veras and Derrick Turnbow also signing on this week.

Veras split last year between the Indians and Yankees. His fastball routinely touches over 95 MPH, although his contact rate is essentially league average. Issues with walks and longballs left him on the outside looking in. Turnbow is similar, with an extra dosage of Steve Blass’ disease. He’s thrown 30 innings in MLB and Triple-A over the last two seasons and walked 63 while doing so.

In other words, look forward to those two leading the N.L. in reliever ERA come next July.

I like tormenting Matt Klaasen, and as such, I’m going to expand on a question I asked him earlier: is the Durham Bulls’ lineup better than the Kansas City Royals’ lineup?

If the season started tomorrow, Kansas City would have something that resembles this:

C Jason Kendall
1B Billy Butler
2B Chris Getz
3B Alex Gordon
SS Yuniesky Betancourt
LF David DeJesus
CF Scott Podsednik
RF Rick Ankiel
DH Josh Fields

Meanwhile, depending on what the Rays do over the next two months, the Durham lineup could look like this:

C John Jaso
1B Dan Johnson
2B Elliot Johnson
3B Chris Nowak
SS Reid Brignac
LF Fernando Perez
CF Desmond Jennings
RF Justin Ruggiano
DH Ryan Shealy

There’s an outside chance that Matt Joyce and/or Sean Rodriguez also wind up here, or some other minor league free agent types. Let’s go position by position.

C: Kendall has the edge defensively and in grit, but Jaso is the better offensive player no matter the level.

1B: Butler.

2B: CHONE thinks Getz is about 20 wOBA points better in 2010. Both are probably best suited for a bench spot in the Majors.

3B: Gordon.

SS: A simple “Brignac” would suffice, I’ll expand anyways. Brignac is left-handed, hits righties well, and fields the ball. He may not be the slayer of foreign worlds like many hoped a few years ago, but he’s better than Betancourt.

LF: DeJesus.

CF: Ignoring contractual status, I think you have to go with Jennings. He may be the best prospect in the American League East and he’d debut on Opening Day in some other organizations. Here he’s stuck behind Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton.

RF: Ankiel, although Ruggiano did work with the same swing mechanic who made Ben Zobrist into BZA.

DH: Amusingly, Shealy was a member of the Royals organization until just recently, yet he appears to be a better player than their DH; unless their DH is Butler, then he’s obviously not.

It appears the Royals get the nod, for now, but if Joyce and/or Rodriguez show up, you would have a hard time convincing me the Royals lineup was better on a spot-by-spot basis.

The Jon Garland deal makes sense financially. For the cost of a little more than a win, the Padres get, well, a pitcher who will produce more than a win. I’m just not sure it’s the best usage of money given their roster construction.

First, Garland. He’s a rubber-armed back-of-the-rotation arm through and through. His career xFIP is 4.61 and in every season since 2002 he’s amassed at least 190 innings. Nothing is wowing or awe-inspiring about his game. Rarely will he strike a batter out and even rarer is a walk. He works the zone with a low-90s fastball and has a garden variety of secondary pitches to choose from.

The problem is that the Padres really don’t need another back-end starter. If the season started tomorrow, they would have Chris Young, Mat Latos, Clayton Richard, and Kevin Correia guaranteed rotation slots with a whole host of arms fighting for the fifth spot including Sean Gallagher, Cesar Carrillo, Wade LeBlanc, and even Aaron Poreda. Is Garland better than those options? Probably. Is he worth $4M more to a team that doesn’t figure to have playoff aspirations? It wouldn’t seem so.

Obviously the Padres could cash him in at the deadline to a team looking for a stretch-run starter with ultra-valuable and rare post-season experience. That would be exactly what Arizona did last season with Garland, who wound up being traded in late August to the Dodgers for a player to be named later. Petco should deflate some of his metrics and I guess that could help with the return, although it’s not like the other general managers are going to be hoodwinked here.

The Padres add a league average starter at a league average price. It’s just not a sexy move and maybe even an unnecessary one.