Podcast Results: The Over/Under Game with Dave Cameron

Last week, the author of this post played the inaugural Over/Under Prospect Game on FanGraphs Audio with lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, the results of which contest were subsequently recorded for posterity at this site. Now, just this very minute, the same author has published an audio record of a similar game — in this case with managing editor Dave Cameron.

The rules of this particular version:

  • Contestant A introduces a specific metric for 2017.
  • Contestant A proposes a precise figure for that metric.
  • Contestant B chooses the over or under.

So, for example: in this edition of the game, Cameron proposes a wager concerning Adam Eaton’s UZR figure in center field for the Nats this season. He sets the over/under mark at +8.0 runs. The author of this post chooses the under. Bet made.

Each Cameron and the host submit five over/under proposals in this episode, for a total of 10 overall. The results of all 10 wagers appear below.

Wager No. 1
Contestant A: Cistulli
Metric: Games entered by Andrew Miller in 7th inning or earlier.
Over/Under: 22
Contestant B: Cameron
Chooses: Under

Wager No. 2
Contestant A: Cameron
Metric: Brian Dozier’s WAR minus Logan Forsythe’s WAR.
Over/Under: 0.5
Contestant B: Cistulli
Chooses: Over

Wager No. 3
Contestant A: Cistulli
Metric: Aaron Nola’s curveball rate.
Over/Under: 37.5%
Contestant B: Cameron
Chooses: Under

Wager No. 4
Contestant A: Cameron
Metric: Adam Eaton’s center-field UZR with Nats.
Over/Under: +8.0
Contestant B: Cistulli
Chooses: Under

Wager No. 5
Contestant A: Cistulli
Metric: Milwaukee’s BaseRuns wins.
Over/Under: 73
Contestant B: Cameron
Chooses: Under

Wager No. 6
Contestant A: Cameron
Metric: Lewis Brinson’s plate-appearance total.
Over/Under: 200
Contestant B: Cistulli
Chooses: Under

Wager No. 7
Contestant A: Cistulli
Metric: Dodgers pitchers to record a start.
Over/Under: 15.5
Contestant B: Cameron
Chooses: Under

Wager No. 8
Contestant A: Cameron
Metric: Total WAR of Cardinals prospects to receive less than 40 FV.
Over/Under: 2.4
Contestant B: Cistulli
Chooses: Over

Wager No. 9
Contestant A: Cistulli
Metric: Ranking of Colorado and Miami rotations by innings per start.
Over/Under: 24th
Contestant B: Cameron
Chooses: Under (i.e. at least one will rank 1-24 in terms of innings per start)

Wager No. 10
Contestant A: Cameron
Metric: Articles Eno Sarris submits with word “spin” or “spin rate” in title.
Over/Under: 6
Contestant B: Cistulli
Chooses: Under



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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


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