Is Tulo Unclutch on Defense, Too?
In Wednesday’s game between the Dodgers and Rockies, Colorado led 2-1 heading into the 8th inning. The Dodgers scored two in the top of the 8th, the Rockies answered with three in the bottom of the inning, and the game went to the 9th with the Rockies up 5-to-3. L.A. had runners on first and second, with two outs, and Dee Gordon at the plate. On a 2-2 pitch, Gordon hit one into the gap in right center field. Rockies right fielder Michael Cuddyer fielded the ball and threw it to cut-off man Troy Tulowitzki, who then made a weak and off-line throw home. Both runners scored and the game was tied.
After the play, I remarked on Twitter how surprised I was by the weak throw home from Tulowitzki. Yes, Tulowitzki’s made six errors so far in 2012, matching his season total from 2011. But the two-time Gold Glover has tremendous range and a very strong arm. He caught the ball cleanly and with plenty of time to get off a good throw, but didn’t. Here’s the video of the play.
Immediately, several Rockies fans and bloggers responded to me on Twitter with “whether on offense or defense, Tulo freezes up in the clutch” or words to that effect. Those comments surprised me more than Tulowitzki’s poor play. To the FanGraphs leader board and, behold, Tulowitzki has been the least clutch hitter in baseball over the last three seasons. My colleague Paul Swydan wrote about Tulowitzki’s clutch problem last August, but noted that Tulo was moving in the right direction, improving his hitting in high-leverage situations. So far this season, however, he’s heading in the wrong direction, with a -.10 clutch rating, ranking him 112th out of 184 qualified batters. Of course, clutch ratings will have big swings at this point in the season, with fewer high-leverage plate appearances per player. Just a look at Matt Kemp‘s -.12 clutch rating so far tells you it’s too early to form a judgment.
But what about Tulowitzki’s defense? Does his glove freeze up in the clutch, too? We don’t have a clutch rating for defense, so firing up the leader board will do us no good.
Optimally, we’d review the play-by-play of each game Tulowitzki plays to see whether he shows any tendency on defense in high-leverage situations — in the later innings, with the game close or tied. The question isn’t just whether he makes any errors in high leverage situations, but whether he gets to a ball late or rushes a throw or fails to make a play in some fashion when the game is on the line. That’s a time consuming task, but an interesting one. So that’s exactly what I plan to do over the course of the season.
So today’s post is the first of several. And today I focus on the less time-consuming task: looking at the six errors charged to Tulowtizki through the Rockies’ first twenty-four games to see if they came in high-leverage situations. It’s a very small sample size and, therefore, not conclusive of anything. Just the beginning of the inquiry.
Tulowitzki’s first error came on April 9, in a game against the Giants at Coors Field. The Giants were leading 4-0 in the 5th inning. Not early, not late. And while a 4-0 lead on the road is typically a nice cushion, that’s never the case at Coors. San Francisco had two runners on with no outs when Angel Pagan hit a ball to Tulowitzki, who made a throwing error and all runners were safe. The next batter, Brandon Crawford, hit a bases-clearing double, putting the Giants up 7-0. That was the final score.
On April 14 in a game against the Diamondbacks, Tulowitzki made two errors in one inning, again costing the Rockies a run. The Rockies led by one run in the top of the 6th. Getting late, close game. With one out and the bases empty, Tulowitzki erred on a throw to first, allowing Aaron Hill to reach. The next batter, John McDonald, hit a double, scoring Hill. Tulowitzki fielded the next ball cleanly, keeping McDonald at second, for the second out. But he erred on the next play, another throwing error, sending McDonald to third. The Rockies got the third out, so no further damage from Tulowitzki’s errors. Colorado went on to win the game 8-7.
Tulowitzki’s next error came on April 16 in a game against the Padres. San Diego was leading 3-1 in the 4th inning. Early in the game, but still close. With runners on the corners and one out, Tulowitzki erred in fielding a ball to short, allowing the runner on third to score. You can see the play in the game recap video here. The next batter singled, scoring another run. When the inning was over, the Padres were up 5-1. They won the game 7-1.
Errors five and six came on April 17, also against the Padres. Tulowitzki’s first error came in the 3rd inning, with the pitcher, Anthony Bass, leading off. An errant throw allowed Bass to reach first. With one out, Tulowitzki turned a double play to end the inning. (He was involved in four double plays on the day). But in the 7th, with the Rockies leading 3-0, Tulowitzki was again on the hot seat on defense. The Padres had runners on first and second with one out, Andy Parrino hit a routine grounder to shortstop, and the ball went right through Tulowitzki’s legs. You can see the play in this game recap video. The Rockies went on to win the game 5-3.
In their first twenty-four games, the Rockies have played twelves games decided by two runs or fewer. Four of Tulowitzki’s errors came in two of those games, but only one error came in the 7th inning or later. Looking only at the errors, Tulowitzki hasn’t been particularly unclutch on defense so far this season. But, as I noted, the errors, are the beginning, not the end of the inquiry. I’ll be back later in the season with several posts looking at Tulowitzki’s overall defense in high-leverage situations. Stay tuned.
Someone should tell him you’re doing this to add even more pressure.
In fairness to Tulo, the April 14 game should not have been played in those weather conditions. Both of his throwing errors in that inning were a product of a ball that was soaked.
I think this theory is probably completely bunk, but I’ll reserve judgment until I read the rest of what you have in store. I will say though, looking at it through the microcosm of six fluky April errors is probably a waste of time.
I basically agree with what you said. Still, I find this to be a fascinating project.
In my own very limited sports history, I have been anti-clutch–saving my worst performances for the most important occasions, so I will be sympathetic with Tulo even if he’s found guilty.
Wow, as a longtime Rockies fan I knew Tulo had the tendency to press too hard in clutch situations at the plate, but being the least clutch over the last three years? That sucks.
That said, I think Tulo’s D won’t show lack of “clutchiness”. When you’re at the plate late in a game, the spotlight’s on you, you have time to reflect on the importance of the situation; it can get in your head. On defense the odds are the ball won’t come to you, but if it does, you don’t have time to think about it. You just react.
I think you’re right. And Tulo even admitted that after the two error game against Arizona in the rain, sleet, and snow that he started thinking about throws instead of just reacting. That’s what caused the errors that followed. I’ll go as far to say that if the weather game against Arizona was never played, he would still only have one error on the season because it never would have gotten in his head.
It shows Tulo’s biggest weakness. Both offensively and defensively, Tulo gets in trouble when he overthinks stuff, which he does all the time because he wants to come through for his teammates and fans as much as any player I’ve ever seen. Sometimes when he’s at the plate I wish he would just stay in the box and react instead of walking around and thinking so much because he preps for a game as hard as anyone and is an absolute beast. He’s already good enough to dominate pitchers and doesn’t to overthink things. I really hope he can find this balance as he gets older because he’s as easy a guy to root for as anyone in baseball.
Having a negative clutch rating does not really mean all that much. Look at that list. Reyes, Cano, Han Ram, Beltre and Tulo. We cant knock these guys too much because its highly likely that they contributed runs to make the game close in the first place, because they are all highly productive hitters. For example lets say Tulo strikes out in the bottom of the 7th with a runner on in a 3-2 game. Seems bad, but he may have had a two run homer earlier and is the only reason they are in the game.
I’m a Padre fan so I don’t see all the games but if anything I think he’s better on defense late in games. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen him take hits and probably runs away from my Pads late in games.
If Titz played in New York he’d have three Gold Gloves. Don’t waste your time on his defense.
Seriously, the guy is a god defensively at all times in the game. I wish he didn’t sign with Colorado long term because I really want him on my team.
At what position? AROD in his prime could not move “No Range” Jeter from shortstop. What makes you rhink Tulo would.
He meant the Mets. When people talk about NY, they mean the Mets. HTFH.
It was a hypothetical situation. Leave it up to a Yankees fan to get all bent out of shape because in theory Tulo is a better defender than Jeter.
Jeff, “in theory”? Derek Jeter is the first person to both hit 3,000 hits and give up 3,000 hits that the average SS could have gotten to. Not much “in theory”. There’s gravity, and then there’s “Tulo is better than Jeter defensively”. Those are facts.
No excuses…and Tulo did not make any after the game either, but the April 14 game with 2 errors in one inning the balls hit and rolling slowly through the wet grass when picked up and attempted to be thrown to first base for the outs. Tough plays for anyone, even a gold glover had problems. Tulo will be fine through the rest of the season and will finish with less than 10 errors for the season. He is an amazing shortstop!!!
After reading the rest of the article, I would say that pressure on the defense often has more to do with runners on base than the game situation. Setting aside the
soaking wet April 14 game, we have errors or misplays from Tulo once with a runner trying to score, four times with two runners on base, and one time with no one on. It seems like on some of these occasions he anticipated the throw, and started to come up before he had the ball.
SSS, of course..
My first comment, on Tulowitzki’s throw home, disappeared… I was just saying the relay throw coming in was off to the first-base side, so he was moving that way when he caught it. Anticipating a bang-bang play, he’s got to turn and throw in one motion, and if his footwork doesn’t fall just so, his momentum will pull the throw off-line, as happened here. Not that it’s a play an all-star caliber shortstop can’t make, just that the article had led me to believe the relay was on line so he could catch it in position to turn and throw.
The abuse this man is taking by some for one bad month of defense after being the gold standard at the position for the last five years is ridiculous. I’m a Mariner fan but I had the pleasure of meeting Mr. Tulowitzki last year and he’s one of the most impressive people I’ve ever met. If he really has been bad in the clutch, then I can almost guarantee you it’s because he wants so badly to perform for these very Rockie fans who seem more preoccupied with complaining about how he doesn’t get them enough big hits then they are with appreciating the greatest player they’ve ever had. I know all major leaguers try hard and really want to win but this guy takes it to another level with his preparation and passion. I know because I’ve seen it.
Troy Tulowitzki is everything you could want in a baseball player. Not only is he outstanding on the field, but he’s also a person young people should model themselves after off it. There’s not a day that goes by that I don’t wish the Mariners would have taken him with the third pick in that 2005 draft. My advice to Rockie fans would be to not worry about Troy in the clutch because if there’s a problem with this man’s game, he’s going to fix it. Concentrate a little more on the fact that you get to watch one of the great players and people in this game every day for the next ten years.
Just my two cents.
This. It’s sad how fickle Denver sports fans are. Troy is the top SS in the league, but any time he doesn’t hit a home run he gets crap from fans that expect him to never fail since he got a big fat contract. Appreciate what we have here, folks. You probably won’t see another SS with his combo of size, power, range, arm, speed, and approach in Colorado for a long time, if ever. Maybe even in the entire MLB.
It’s funny because a couple of years ago Tulo had almost the same play to throw a Dodger out at home to end the game and he executed it perfectly.
http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=11129955&c_id=mlb
The dude is fine in the field at all point in the game. He’s just had one poor month of fielding. I’d still take his glove in the 9th inning of a close game over anyone elses in baseball.
If you took his glove in the ninth inning how would he catch the ball?
SNARF!
I still question the notion of Tulo being unclutch at the plate, nevermind in the field. You look at his last three years but also forgot to mention that he was better than about 90% of baseball in the clutch in the three years before that (2006 through 2008)
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2008&month=0&season1=2006&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=11,d
Tulo has really only had two really poor seasons in the clutch and one of them (2010) he had a .963 OPS in high leverage situations according to this very website. So the only year I think you can really get him for being bad in the clutch is 2009 which I would agree with. Not saying he can’t get better, but overall I think he does Okay.
In the field, Tulo’s a s good as it gets, and you probably don’t get there if you’re unclutch on defense so I really wouldn’t worry about that.
I saw Mays drop a fly ball once too, so what? Good/great players make bad plays sometimes, they also have runs of bad plays, I’ll take him on my team anyday.
Okay Wendy lets take this a little farther. You have video of Troys errors I think it is only fitting that you show a few of the plays that he makes after the 7th inning in the clutch. I’m well over the age of 60 been a baseball nut since I was 8 and I have seen some great shortstops and a few made it into the Hall of Fame, but none have been able to field and make a strong accurate throw on the move game in and game out. Also what other SS has played with as many different 2nd baseman than him? He came to the Rockies ready to be a leader carring a big bat and playing a hard position at a young age I for one think he has lived up to his potential. I can’t think of a SS playing right now that I would rather have on my team. So Miss Thurm follow the Colorado Rockies everyday and every play and then write about Mr Tulowitzki.
This is what I wrote above:
“So today’s post is the first of several. And today I focus on the less time-consuming task: looking at the six errors charged to Tulowtizki through the Rockies’ first twenty-four games to see if they came in high-leverage situations. It’s a very small sample size and, therefore, not conclusive of anything. Just the beginning of the inquiry.”
I don’t have any preconceived notions about Tulo’s clutchness or not defense. I said I was surprised that he didn’t make the play in the game the other day. Others responded. The question is how to look at the data and answer the question. That’s what I’m going to do.
Ozzie Smith – Omar Vizquel – Derek Jeter – Luis Aparicio others…I am sure…Tulowitzki is right there with them with the glove and exceeds them with the bat in his short career. Time will tell, but through the beginning of his career, he so far is excellent. themick is right on with his comments regarding his everyday normal plays are plays many other SS don’t even make.