It’s Still Not Time to Panic in Boston

The Red Sox are reeling. Over the last month, they’ve seen a 10-game lead over Tampa Bay shrink down to just three games. They’ve seen their rotation suffer from injuries and poor performances, and lately, even the normally reliable Daniel Bard has been blowing up at inopportune times. As hard as it would have been to believe even just a few weeks ago, the Rays could pull into a tie in the Wild Card race if they can complete the weekend sweep in Boston.

And yet, despite all the injuries, the poor performances, and the threatening kids from down south, I still don’t think the Red Sox really have all that much to worry about. Even if we presume that the Red Sox and Rays are of somewhat equal talent levels for the remainder of the season, the Sox still have a lot of advantages in this race for the final playoff spot.

Let’s start with the obvious — the three game lead. Yes, the Rays could wipe that out if they keep beating the Red Sox brains in, but the actual probability of the Rays pulling off the sweep this weekend is pretty darn low. Even if we say that this version of the Red Sox is something less than what they’ve shown all year, it’s essentially impossible to argue that the Rays are a significant favorite in any of the three games, especially with the games being in Boston. If it’s a 50-50 toss-up in each game, that would put the odds of the Rays winning all three at 12.5% — pretty much the same chances that a pitcher gets a hit in any given at-bat.

Sure, it could happen, but do you routinely bet on pitchers getting hits in certain situations? I didn’t think so. The reality is that even if the Red Sox lose two of three to Tampa Bay this weekend, they’ll still wake up Monday morning with a two-game lead. That might not sound like much, but when you look at the two team’s remaining schedules, it’s a formidable lead.

After the weekend series with Tampa Bay, the Red Sox host the Orioles for four games, play three at New York, and then finish the season with three more at Baltimore. The Yankees series will be tough, but seven of their final 10 games are against the team with the third-worst record in baseball. If we give the Red Sox a 65 percent chance of winning each game against Baltimore and a 45 percent chance of winning the remaining games with the Yankees, then we’d expect them to go 6-4 in their final 10 games.

The Rays, on the other hand, have essentially the exact opposite schedule. They have seven more games against New York, and their three-game break in between series is against Toronto, the better also-ran of the AL East. Tampa plays nothing but winning teams the rest of the way, and while it’s likely that the Yankees won’t be rolling out a full force line-up in the final weekend, it’s still going to take a monstrous effort to make up ground during the final week and a half.

If we give the Rays a 45 percent chance to win each of the four games in New York and then a 55 percent chance to win the home games against the Blue Jays and Yankees to end the season (under the assumption that NYY will be setting up their playoff rotation, giving guys days off, etc…), we’d come up with an expected record of 5-5 in their final 10 games.

Yes, just based on remaining quality of opponents, the Red Sox should be expected to gain a game on Tampa Bay in the standings after this weekend series ends. Even if the Rays sweep this weekend, Boston would still be slight favorites to capture the Wild Card, and we’ve already pointed out that it’s pretty unlikely that the Rays will win three straight in Boston.

Even if the Rays take two of three and cut the lead down to two games, they’d likely have to go 8-2 down the stretch to end the season in a tie with Boston, and 9-1 to win the Wild Card outright. The odds of the Rays winning 9 out of their final 10 games are about 1 in 100, and that’s being generous with their individual chance to win each game.

If the Rays beat Josh Beckett tonight, you’re going to hear a lot about momentum, choking, and narratives that suggest that the Red Sox are in a lot of trouble. In reality, though, the Sox are still extremely likely to win the Wild Card, and it’s really the Rays who can’t afford to lose this weekend. Anything less than a sweep and this race is essentially all but over. Tampa Bay has to play perfect baseball for the next three days, then hope that the Orioles find some late season magic to help them out down the stretch.

I’ll put my money on Boston.




Print This Post



Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.

107 Responses to “It’s Still Not Time to Panic in Boston”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Old Uncle Randy says:

    BUZZKILL

    +21 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Telo says:

      Hahaha. Yea, at this time of year, (even as a sox fan in this current situation), I like to forget about the numbers.

      http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/game_set_match_or_just_points/

      That article just… I don’t know. I love sabermetrics, but I don’t like killing the magic of September. While I agree completely with Cameron and his assessment, I WANT to sweat it out. I don’t want to know that we have a 87.195 chance of making the playoffs. I want it to feel like we’re in a dogfight. Because in the end, we can drool over spreadsheets all season long, but during this time of year, screw it. I want to watch and FEEL drama. I’d trade all the stats in the world for just a few of those intense moments.

      +8 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Yirmiyahu says:

        Boston fans have been bred and socialized to panic for generations. Cameron’s silly little article isn’t going to stop us.

        +16 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Sandy Kazmir says:

        @Yirimiyahu Boston fans were bred and socialized for decades to hate blacks and they’ve successfully shrugged that off. Thank the Lord that they’ve realized equal rights are for all. Hopefully your people can make progress on this issue as well.

        -39 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Sandy Kazmir – Boy, was that over the line.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Telo says:

        lol @ the responses. Yea, that was quite out of left field. There undoubtedly was (and is) racism in Boston, but lumping people together and making sweeping generalizations is exactly the same type of behavior racists display.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Sandy Kazmir says:

        The organization was the last to integrate because they were nervous that fans would boycott the games or attack the player. It’s a shame that revisionist history doesn’t tell the tale of arguably the most racist city in North America. As I said, good thing they’ve moved on and nothing came of it. It’s a sign that perhaps one day fans will be trusted to not over-react to every flyball or loss.

        -23 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Sandy Kazmir says:

        Oh and welcome to the club, Telo, if you indeed believe your definition.

        -20 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • juan pierre's mustache says:

        im pretty sure it was more the comparison between eliminating racism and eliminating panic over a relatively close playoff race that threw people off there.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Kirkwood says:

        Man, Sandy, how badly did you want to get your opinion on Boston racism heard? Forcing it in any harder would have been rape.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • cs3 says:

        Sandy Kazmir -
        really poor taste.
        not to mention completely off topic.
        i have no idea why you thouhgt it was a good idea to write what you did.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • adam says:

        “The organization was the last to integrate because they were nervous that fans would boycott the games or attack the player. It’s a shame that revisionist history doesn’t tell the tale of arguably the most racist city in North America.”

        Aren’t normative assertions like this against the entire spirit of this website? This reads like the equivalent of “Jim Rice was the most feared hitter in baseball and deserves to be in the HOF”. [Side note: imagine how feared the people of Boston must have been of a black power hitter like Rice!]

        Boston’s baseball team didn’t integrate => Boston is the most racist city in North America. Weren’t the Celtics a pioneer in racial integration and the first team to put 5 black players on the floor? Wait, does that even tell us anything about Boston and its people? No, it doesn’t. Let’s talk Baseball

        +13 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Sultan of Shhhhwwwing says:

        Because the town is such an educational epicenter, with many of its grads growing up and adding to its burgeoning liberal elite, quick conclusion is that liberals are closet racists who if given the opportunity would beat a black Red Sox. Damn them, I say.

        I would also like to point out that Sandy posted between 1-3pm, a time everyone knows TB reserves for shuffleboard. I’d bet he was pissed because the line waiting on his court was too long.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Randy Moss says:

      Boston still hates blacks!

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Tom B says:

    Even if we say that this version of the Red Sox is something less than what they’ve shown all year, it’s essentially impossible to argue that the Rays are a significant favorite in any of the three games

    No, it’s actually not hard at all. They already won one game, Tonights matchup is a wash and Sunday is Price vs Wakefield, advantage Rays. Add on that the Rays offense, not the RedSox… is playing much better the last 2 weeks.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • adohaj says:

      If only baseball were a game of 2 weeks…

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Tom B says:

        Boston’s offense in May isn’t going to help them today. Youk and Ortiz are banged up… why would they be as good as they have been all year?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • @3_2count says:

        Not to mention being the home team and getting to bat last gives your team an advantage.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Tom B says:

        Any perceived advantage is minimal at best. Both team get 27 outs, it doesn’t matter when they come or in what order.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • don says:

        If any perceived advantage were minimal at best, we’d expect average home and road records to be very close.

        They’re not.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Tom B says:

        Sorry don but you are just wrong.

        RedSox 2011 split records:
        Home: 43-31
        Road: 43-32

        Where is that advantage?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • don says:

        The average MLB home record over the last decade is in the neighborhood of .540. Continue to cherry pick irrelevant stats at your leisure, though.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Tom B says:

        6 games over 81 is not that significant. Especially since it is not how the current RedSox team is currently playing.

        Do the RedSox normally play better at home? Yes. They usually have the pitching to pull that off. This year they don’t.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Yirmiyahu says:

        While I agree that single-year Home/Road splits are not predictive, it’s worth noting that this team isn’t particularly well-suited to Fenway. In the past, the team’s consisted of right-handed mashers, bad outfield defense, and an utter lack of speed (which is a good formula for taking advantage of the Monster and a tiny outfield). But this year, everything’s the opposite.

        In other words, I don’t think the Sox’ unusual H/R split is entirely based on luck.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Rex Manning Day says:

      Yeah, calling each of these Tampa-Boston games a toss-up is a bit generous to Boston. Heck, Tampa’s 10-5 against Boston already this year (4-1 in Fenway), and combined with both teams’ most recent performances, expecting Tampa to take 2 of the remaining 3 games is pretty reasonable.

      A sweep is still unlikely, of course (if nothing else, I think Beckett’s going to show up in a big way tonight), but it’s at least around the Mendoza Line.

      Boston fans should definitely be grateful for those Baltimore series, though, because they’re really the only thing preventing their despair from being legitimate. As long as Boston can win those series, they only need to take 1 each from Tampa and NY to functionally secure the WC (barring a truly spectacular run from TB, of course).

      I will say this, though. Baltimore played NY pretty hard in their last series (plus NY checked out a bit early, but still), and I wouldn’t be surprised if they show up against Boston and try to play spoiler. That’s not to say they’re going to beat up on them or anything, but I could see them going, say, 3-4 instead of 2-5. Again, not enough to make things suddenly disastrous for Boston, but enough to put a bit of sweat on their brow.

      Basically, yes the bridge-jumping in Boston is premature, but at the same time, Tampa’s chances are not totally negligible. Boston’s the heavy favorite to make the playoffs, but it’ll at least be a bit of a race to get there.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • SoxFanForsyth says:

      Way to conveniently leave out the Lester game. Lester vs Niemman is Adv BOS.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Tom B says:

        Right, so we have Hellickson Tampa won, Beckett Shields Wash matchup, Lester Adv Bos, Price Adv Tampa.

        Advantage Tampa.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • juan pierre's mustache says:

        given that we are assuming tampa won the game that they, well, already won, wouldn’t it make sense to just use today’s standings and look at future games? winning yesterday does not impact the outcomes over the other 3 games and from your earlier post it appears you are attempting to discuss the games that have not already happened, which even you seem to believe are roughly 50/50 overall

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Tom B says:

        My post was in response to this “it’s essentially impossible to argue that the Rays are a significant favorite in any of the three games”.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. jim says:

    gee dave, can’t you just enjoy a playoff race for what it is? not every situation calls for being over-analyzed like you’ve done here.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Nik says:

      you came to the wrong site for that

      +17 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • CircleChange11 says:

      People project and predict games and races all the time … they just do it with observations, gut feelings, guesses, etc.

      Dave just used a higher degree of data & analysis.

      Doesn;t have anything to do with enjoying it or not.

      Actually knowing the odds might make it more enjoyable if the rays do sotrm back.

      +7 Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Sandy Kazmir says:

    A month ago the Rays had even slimmer odds than they do now, but have clawed back into it. Once again we get great evidence that games are played on some sort of field and not some sort of spreadsheet. Until the Rays are eliminated I will be screaming myself hoarse.

    -10 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • juan pierre's mustache says:

      the odds used to be one way and now they are different! they must be wrong! also, what is this “field” you mentioned? is it one of the blanks in my excel sheet? i am disastrously confused.

      +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Nivarsity says:

      Yes, but tell me more about the City of Boston and race relations.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. D says:

    How would the lead still be 2 games if the Red Sox win 1 game? Wouldn’t it be a 1 game lead because it is currently a 3 game lead?

    -13 Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. vivalajeter says:

    I agree with the overall explanation, but that’s not really what baseball is about, is it? If you’re a Red Sox fan, you’re going to panic. Even with a 3 game lead and an easier schedule, your team just gave up 10 games in the standings, their ace isn’t healthy, and it’s natural to panic. On the flip side, a Rays fan will be excited about the next 3 games because a sweep will put them right back into the race.

    The odds of a sweep aren’t very high mathematically, but they’re not unheard of. The odds of the Rays winning the wild card aren’t very high, but they definitely have a chance. It’s an exciting time, and an exciting series going on right now.

    If these kind of leads didn’t vanish, the Mets would have entered the 2009 season as the three-time defending NL East champs.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. 2007 Mets says:

    We also put our cash on the Sox. How can you bet against a sure thing?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. CircleChange11 says:

    As hard as it would have been to believe even just a few weeks ago, the Rays could pull into a tie in the Wild Card race if they can complete the weekend sweep in Boston.

    It was hard to believe in April and May, when it looked like THE year when the Rays’ slipper was falling off. That they’ve gotten back into the race in THIS division is incredibly impressive.

    They have seven more games against New York,

    Conspiracy theorists have to be going crazy suggesting that NYY is going to lose these games intentionally just to make sure BOS does not make the playoffs.

    It would be very interesting if the Red Sox and their 3-MVP Candidates did finish behind the rays, who do not have a universally recognized MVP candidate.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Tom B says:

      The RedSox are up to 3 MVP candidates now? Ellsbury I can understand. Pedroia has the same stats as 4 other players… who’s the third?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • jim says:

        media candidate adrian gonzalez

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • CircleChange11 says:

        Don’t be a smart ass *grin*.

        AGonz has been hyped as the leading MVP candidate since around the All-Star break.

        —————————-

        Also, I almost forgot how poor of a start that Boston had in the early season.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Tom B says:

        Ahh the media darling, how could I forget. A-Gon would be hard pressed for serious consideration barring a huge tear to finish the season. So many candidates may also spread the Boston votes around and allow Granderson to steal the MVP.

        Of course, their hype has been all sorts of misplaced this year… Funny, I remember the 1927 Yankees being a lot better.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • MrKnowNothing says:

        A-Gon

        (is this that difficult?)

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Yirmiyahu says:

        A-Gon would be hard pressed for serious consideration barring a huge tear to finish the season.

        Really? He’s leading the league in AVG and RBI’s. That’ll be enough for a lot of voters.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Tom B says:

        You can’t really put A-Gon’s season up against Granderson, so what would be the point in voting for A-Gon?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • juan pierre's mustache says:

        “You can’t really put A-Gon’s season up against Granderson, so what would be the point in voting for A-Gon?”

        i would not vote for agon either, but this is roughly like if we lived in australia and said michelle bachmann wasn’t a legit candidate to win the repub primary because we did not support her. she’d still be a candidate because, shockingly in both her and agon’s cases, there are many people who do support her, and those people are the ones in charge of picking.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • CircleChange11 says:

        I didn’t think it was disputed that AGon was an MVP candidate, perhaps even THE candidate in the minds of some.

        For much of the season it was basically AGon and Joey bats being discussed.

        IMO, he’s not the best candidate, but he is a candidate. So are Grandy, Ells, Pedroia, Bautista, even Verlander (not my preference), Kinsler.

        Anyone have any doubts that AGon will finish in the top 5 of the MVP voting?

        What are the odds that he finishes ahead of either Ellsbury or Pedroia? My guess is “pretty good”. I think Ellsbury is going to go largely unappreciated for various reasons, perhaps primarily “name recognition”.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • mattinm says:

        Don’t mind Tom B, he’s our elder statesman. One of the few left that remembers the 1927 Yankees and shows a working knowledge of the Internet.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • David K says:

      “Conspiracy theorists have to be going crazy suggesting that NYY is going to lose these games intentionally just to make sure BOS does not make the playoffs”

      Yanks are probably better served beating Tampa. I think they’re better off right now facing the Sox in round 2 than Tampa (assuming they beat Texas in round 1, not a given)

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • JCA says:

      You do not have to be a conspiracy theorist to picture Girardi resting plenty of players, limiting innings, giving at bats to Scrantonites, and otherwise going less than full bore. You could also see the O’s playing as if their jobs were on the line, and Showalter treating the games down the stretch as having something to prove. I think this tends to pulll the NYY and Os games back closer to 50/50 than season record would suggest.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Pelly says:

    Do we, Red Sox Fans, have permission to panic if we get swept? Or would that still be statistically over reactive?

    In fact, I don’t care. All this losing has sucked after flirting with first for so long. I feel like panicking!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • juan pierre's mustache says:

      another way of looking at it: currently, 12.5% of red sox fans should be panicking and the other 87.5% should assume it will work out.

      +12 Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Hitchhiker's Guide says:

    Page 4: If swept, PANIC.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. tcnjsteve says:

    Im curious, was there any of this self-assured analysis for the Mets in 07? or 08? 7 1/2 up with 17 to play…sigh…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. lester bangs says:

    Of course you’d put your money on Boston if it were an even-odds prop. But would you lay 10-to-1 on Boston, or 12-to-1, or 15-1? Find the BP computer and maybe you can get 17 or 18-1.

    That’s the real question – what are Boston’s true odds of finishing ahead of Tampa Bay (and for that matter, the Angels)?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • JCA says:

      Dan Szymborski (spelling? Sorry, I don’t have it here) had it about 24% chance for Rays before they spit up Thursday’s Os game.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. Telo says:

    7 games against the Yankees is no joke, plus the Jays are no slouch. It’s gotta be 5 or 6 to 1.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Judy says:

    I think some people didn’t realize it’s a 4 game series, with 3 games still left: Beckett-Shields, Lester-Niemann, Wakefield-Price.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. Mike D says:

    God I hate not being able to fix my replies…

    Game 6, somewhere around 1% per WPA:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN198610250.shtml

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. KissMyPurpleButt says:

    At the risk of being pedantic, 12.5% is the probability of the Rays sweeping the Sox if it was a 50-50 shot each game. The odds would be 7-1 against.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  17. Joe says:

    The truth is in the middle. You don’t bet on a pitcher getting a hit, but you definitely worry about it, and sometimes it happens.

    Because there are exactly three games left in this series the Rays have a 50% chance to win 2 or more. 2 games in 2 weeks is 100% not safe.

    I remember the Cubs blowing 2 games in the last week in 04.

    Is it time to say if only the Rays called up Jennings sooner. The WAR difference bight not be 3, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t have swung 3 games.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  18. Joe says:

    Let’s say Lester has a large advantage over Niemann, and Price a large advantage over Wakefield. That makes tonight the rubber match, and this could be the game of the year!!!!!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  19. Mike says:

    Speaking as a Red Sox fan, this article is almost as good as Dave Cameron’s distant ancestor’s article in the Pompeii Daily “Vesuvius is Dormant and Poses No Threat.” (Obviously, just kidding, Dave).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  20. Sultan of Shhhhwwwing says:

    It’s preposterous to sweat over the standings. With a beat up Beckett, Bedard, and half the offense, along with an ineffective Lester and bullpen of one, they ain’t going anywhere anyway. Be realistic, it’s been an unfortunate year riddled with poorly timed injuries (again) which has left the team short of competitive.

    As a Sox fan mostly, I want TB to take their starters to the playoffs and kick ass. They deserve it more and could do more damage.

    It’s time for Patriot love.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • juan pierre's mustache says:

      way to commit to a team there. also, calling this an “unfortunate year” for the sox while they are still leading the WC is going to leave you very short of adjectives when you have to describe the astros

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Sultan of Schwwingg says:

        Get real. It would be one thing if Lester, Beckett, Bedard, and Bard were all healthy and effective – then I’d be sweating it out with the worst of us because the team would have as good a shot as any to win out, but they’re not. They’re simply not going to accomplish anything with Lester, half a Beckett, Lackey and Wakefield starting, along with a bullpen of one.

        An unfortunate year. Get over it.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Welp says:

        ^Weird game last night, huh?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  21. everdiso says:

    Just an overrated team.

    A very good team, who will probably still make the playoffs, but never the unstoppable powerhouse team they were made out to be, with many more question marks than anyone seemed to want to admit going into the season.

    What’s funny is how the narrative is turning into the Injury Excuse.

    This Red Sox roster was one of the oldest and most injured rosters in baseball coming INTO the season, how on earth could anyone be surprised that they’ve run into major injury problems? I can count the red sox players who DIDN’T have age or injury question marks coming into this season on one hand. How can people honestly be calling the Sox unlucky? They should feel lucky that all of Ellsbury, Ortiz, Beckett, and Papelbon have come back from the dead this year and put up career or near career years when they were expected to do anything but.

    Anyways, as a long suffering Jays fans, a pox on the Sox, a pox on the Rays……time to start up that Angels playoff train! GO HALOS!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • CommentorsAreGettingDumber says:

      “I can count the red sox players who DIDN’T have age or injury question marks coming into this season on one hand”.

      So who are these human beings who can’t get hurt? Bruce Willis? Are any of players in the MLB 0% injury risks as well, I’d like to study their DNA.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  22. Jerome S says:

    You can’t predict baseball.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  23. Simon says:

    Suppose for a moment that the Rays do pull this one out, sweep the Sox and then go 9-1 the rest of the way, 6-1 vs. the Yankees.

    This can’t really be looked at as Sox vs. Rays in isolation, because in this scenario the Rays rapidly advance on the Yankees too. This would not be just a two horse race for the wild card anymore – it is a three-team race with two coming out of the east.

    The Rays would finish 12-1 to end up at 95 wins.

    The Sox would be 86-66 with 10 games remaining, 7 vs Baltimore and 3 vs the Yankees. They would need to go 9-1 to tie.

    The Yankees are at 90-58 with 14 games remaining. 3 vs. Toronto, 1 vs Min, 3 vs. the Sox, and 7 vs the Rays. But I said they are going 1-6 vs the Rays. Which leaves them at 91-64 with 3 vs BJs, 1 vs. Twins and 3 vs. Sox. They would need to go 4-3 to tie.

    But, if the Sox manage to go 9-1 in their 10 remaining, they take at least 2 of 3 from the yanks. New York has to go 3-1 against the Twins and Jays.

    And of course, Baltimore would need to go on a fantastic losing streak.

    This all has about a 0.02% chance of going down – no wait, less. The main point is that for the Rays to actually make this comeback, they have to crush the Yankees over 7 games, which would tighten up the entire division.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. joe says:

    I realize the Angels are 1 additional game back, but how are they not part of Dave’s analysis?

    Seems like this article is “will the Rays catch the Red Sox?”…. If it is asking should Red Sox fans panic, it should look at any scenario where they miss the playoffs (like the Angels catching them)

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. joser says:

    It’s always time to panic in Boston. At least for the Red Sox fans who were raised in the faith and have trouble with their “r”s. The bandwagon “nation” isn’t panicking, because they’ve never rooted for the team when it wasn’t winning World Series titles. And if the team slides back into ignominy and out of the playoffs for several years in a row, they’ll just switch back to the 90′s Yankees hats they still keep in their Closets of Douchebaggery.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. JCA says:

    Denny Galehouse – one key start.

    Bobby Sprowl – one key start.

    Kyle Weiland – at least two.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. The Red Sox’s problem, not complicated, they’ve got 40% of a pitching staff.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Sultan of Schwwingg says:

      Beckett giving up 3 runs in 3 IP? No, they’ve got 20% of a pitching staff. One: only Lester remains. And to the douchebag Cali-Anaheim-LA Angels fan; that’s not whining – it’s just what it is. The team is no longer competitive because it’s down to one qualified starter.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Welp says:

        Jumped the gun a bit did we? By your entirely ridiculous definition the Rays don’t have Shields and NY doesn’t have Sabathia.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • CommentorsAreGettingDumber says:

        You seem like a rationale human being who uses important sample sizes. Having a rough first 3 innings, coming off 10 days of rest, is definitely reason to write a guy off for the rest of the season. Good for you.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  28. everdiso says:

    Nice to see the umps doing their best to calm down the panic in beantown.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  29. james wilson says:

    The Red Sox will probably Schilling to the finish line to die in the next round, but if they don’t make it to Texas Eppenstein will have to slip out of town in that gorilla suit. Friedman would make a great fit in Boston.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  30. Garrett says:

    How is everyone at this website such complete dogshit at forecasting win probabilities?

    Just link coolstandings and spare the insanity.

    lol @ 55% v the Yankees

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  31. tcnjsteve says:

    is it time to panic yet?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  32. CircleChange11 says:

    First there was #6 Org, now there’s be no end to the “no time to panic” responses. *grin*

    Most of all already knew that in regards to the BoSox and Cubs … it’s always time to panic. If there’s a heart-crushing way to lose … they’ll find it.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current day month ye@r *