Jason Collette – Baseball Chat 02/21/2014

11:56
Jason Collette: Happy Friday, everyone. Only an hour today, so let’s make it a great one!

11:59
Comment From Kris
Andrelton the best of the Braves extensions?

   Jason Collette: The Braves must really believe in the power. The defense is not something that would have played up in arbitration as defensive runs saved means as much to an arbiter as vegetables mean to Ron Swanson. It’s a ballsy move to guarantee 7 years to a guy with barely one full season under his belt & pay him more than Ryan Braun in doing so.

 

12:00
Comment From JV
Where is Nick Franklin on opening day?

   Jason Collette: I read something earlier today that McClendon considers Franklin & Miller on equal footing for the shortstop job and potentially the leadoff role. As much as I like Franklin, I think he is the inferior player in both situations.

 

12:02
Comment From Guest
O’s going to regret the Jiminez contract? AL East is a division of patient hitters who can devour his wildness

   Jason Collette: They had to do something here as their window to contend is shrinking. I prefer him over Big Erv in terms of the ballpark and the division, but this is the best they could do given their medical constraints.

 

12:02
Comment From JV
Kershaw-Medlen-Salazar-Ross-Kluber ok rotation in 12 team mixed?

   Jason Collette: Absolutely – lots of upside with the back 3

 

12:03
Comment From Guest
Do you think Homer Bailey can be a top 15 pitcher by the end of the year?

   Jason Collette: I’ve said it a few times this offseason; in a Kershaw vs the field bet for Cy Young, give me Homer Bailey.

 

12:04
Comment From Johnny
Which “greatest shape of their career” player intrigues you the most?

   Jason Collette: Pablo Sandoval. The 40 pounds he dropped that Jesus Montero found should really help him if he can keep it off. I love it when a player decides to get in the BSOHL in his walk year….

 

12:05
Comment From Kris
Charlotte Knights going to have any good prospects? Past 4-5 years I just go to see the other team’s guys/see Frank Thomas on a rehab assignment. he was massive.

   Jason Collette: I hope so; I’m moving to Charlotte this summer and will be spending a lot of time at that park. Haven’t seen any projected rosters for the Knights yet but I did see the park last month and it’s a huge upgrade over the old one in Rock Hill.

 

12:07
Comment From Jay Rice
Who has a better 2014 season Archer or Gray?

   Jason Collette: Gray. Archer needs to find something to be more effective against lefties as his splits are rather drastic. He’s an incredibly smart kid and he’s in good hands.

 

12:08
Comment From Guest
Braves lineup versus Nationals lineup?

   Jason Collette: Nationals lineup wins – less swing/miss in it. I can’t pick a lineup as a favorite that will have B.J Upton & Dan Uggla in it on a daily basis.

 

12:09
Comment From Ian
To heck with the Braves, do you believe in Simmons’s power?

   Jason Collette: You don’t hit 17 homers with a 7.5% HR/FB by accident.

 

12:10
Comment From O
Who will have the better year, Erasmo or Jarred Cosart?

   Jason Collette: Erasmo is already well ahead in the social media manners race, and I am still in his corner for 2014 as long as that forearm checks out OK this spring.

 

12:11
Comment From Bert
Springer or Yelich this year and beyond? Thanks for the chat.

   Jason Collette: Springer has the higher ceiling, but Yelich has the higher floor. Springer’s whiff rates are scary to project; they’re not Reggie Abercrombie bad, but it’s enough for me to lean toward the higher floor guy in Yelich.

 

12:13
Comment From John Stamos
Thoughts on James Shields ROC?

   Jason Collette: Will finally get a nice payday 10 months from now. 7 straight seasons of 200+ innings without injury, and skills are holding up nicely. He can ease the pain of velo loss down the line with how he commands and sequences his pitches. What he went through from 2009 to 2011 in becoming a better pitcher was one of my favorite things to watch

 

12:14
Comment From David
Is there a chance that this cuban SS diaz will fix all of the Yankees infield problems?

   Jason Collette: If he has better range than Simmons and can field three positions at once, absolutely. That current infield is a recipe for disaster in terms of health and defense.

 

12:15
Comment From Guest
Do you think Salvador Perez can up the power a little bit? Would like to see 15+ hr’s this year

   Jason Collette: The size is there, but he has to get more loft in his swing to do that. He’s putting balls on the ground at an increasing rate, and that’s going to limit a 15+ HR upside for now.

 

12:17
Comment From Miller Time
How many more years does Wainwright have in him?

   Jason Collette: He turns 33 later this season, and the skills are holding up very well around the 2011 injury. That said, that was quite the workload he shouldered last season.

 

12:17
Comment From Guest
Does Mark Teixeira lose a good amount of AB’s this year cause of that wrist. The Soreness doesn’t sound to good

   Jason Collette: His glove needs to stay in the lineup to help the rest of the infield.

 

12:18
Comment From Chris
Considering trading Middlebrooks for D. Jennings. Would you do it?

   Jason Collette: Absolutely. Jennings has added some bulk this offseason and still can run. His weakness is RHP, especially those with good velo. He likes to chase high fastballs from RH and it holds him back.

 

12:20
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
is replacement level in a fantasy league literally the best available player at a position on the FA wire or should one assume the final 2-3 roster spots on each team are basically interchangable and at replacement level?

   Jason Collette: The latter. I like to look at the last 4 rounds of a draft as the first four guys I’m going to cut when things happen within the season. The rule of thumb my friend Cory Schwartz uses is you keep a guy for 26 scoring periods minus his draft position. That means if you draft a guy in the 23rd round, you can safely cut the guy 3 weeks into the season.

 

12:21
Comment From Guest
Aramis Ramirez – Good value or too much injury risk?

   Jason Collette: Underrated player — see this http://rotosynthesis.rotowire.com/Undervalued-But-Not-For-Long-BBD4671.htm

 

12:21
Comment From NF
Danny Espinosa/Anthony Rendon – This is a silly “open battle” to have, right?

   Jason Collette: Yes, very. Espinosa has a minor league option and can still be sent down. This “open battle” seems to be something done to fluff up his trade value, if anything. That job is Rendon’s to lose.

 

12:22
Comment From George
Speaking of SS, I’m a Dodgers fan and have my concerns about Hanley Ramirez… Can you convince me that he’s MVP caliber this year, please?

   Jason Collette: It’s boom or bust with him. He was amazing last year around the health issues, and as long as the sulkiness is behind him (and it should be), he’s in the MVP discussion for 2014.

 

12:23
Comment From Tyler
Hi Jason, recently drafted and someone is offering tanaka for matt cain… kind of tempted by tanaka’s upside, what do you think?

   Jason Collette: Is the grass always greener on the other side? Cain is a known-known in a better park and should recover nicely from the poor first 2 months of 2013. Tanaka is a shiny new toy, but I prefer my old reliable one.

 

12:23
Comment From Miller Time
Who wins NL East?

   Jason Collette: Nationals by 2 games.

 

12:24
Comment From Guest
Dynasty League: Trade Machado and Wheeler for Miguel Cabrera?

   Jason Collette: Without haste

 

12:25
Comment From Guest
Could Nolan Arenado become a 4 win player?

   Jason Collette: I will take the slightly over on that, eventually. He garnered so much praise in the AFL in 2012 and turns 23 here early in 2014. The offense will catch up with the defense.

 

12:26
Comment From Logan
Hunter pence for $8 or Ryu for $1 as my 5th keeper? ?

   Jason Collette: Can’t go wrong with a $1 pitcher with Ryu’s skills.

 

12:27
Comment From Woods
AL-only, OBP, 5 outfielders: for the next two years, prefer Arcia for $7 or Calhoun for $13?

   Jason Collette: OBP; I’ll pay the extra $ for Calhoun

 

12:27
Comment From Guest
Do you see Evan Gattis having a top ten catcher season?

   Jason Collette: as a “catcher”, sure. Power is tough to come by and it’s not a problem for him at all.

 

12:29
Comment From Miller Time
When is Uggla replaced?

   Jason Collette: If I had my druthers, I’d write it off as a sunken cost and make the move now. He’s a hindrance at the plate and the field – can’t have that.

 

12:29
Comment From NF
What’s the best fantasy keeper H2H scoring format?

   Jason Collette: It’s Trout, regardless of format

 

12:30
Comment From The Oberamtmann
Yankees signing Ellsbury (Good player, I think too many years) probably means bye-bye for Gardner, right? Where does he go? Does he get a great payday or are his skills too undervalued?

   Jason Collette: The FA market for centerfielders next offseason is very thin. We’re talking Rasmus, Sizemore, Span (if option isn’t picked up), Chris Young, and Gardner. Gardner should be paid very well next offseason. That’s why the A’s were smart to lock Crisp up last month.

 

12:31
Comment From BDub
2nd overall pick in a keeper league – available will be Sonny Gray, Ryu, and Tanaka. Rank?

   Jason Collette: Gray, Tanaka, Ryu

 

12:32
Comment From Scott
Long-term keeper league trade Carlos Gomez $8 for Homer Bailey $3? Can keep for +$1 each year.

   Jason Collette: Two of my favorite players for 2014; I still want Gomez.

 

12:33
Comment From Prich
Mariners best course of action: A) Keep roster as is, B) Go out and find a cheap RH that can play all three OF positions, C) sign Morales and dump one of Smoak/LoMo, D) sign Cruz and dump one of Smoak/Lomo

   Jason Collette: B and C? Go trade for Chris Denorfia & sign Morales.

 

12:33
Comment From JV
I am cautiously optimistic about Josh Donaldson this year. Can he repeat last season???

   Jason Collette: Yes. He’s hit .298/.377/.498 since his recall in August of 2012. Skills have held up nicely.

 

12:35
Comment From Northsider
Based on the number of future FA pitchers signing extension and the fact that the Cubs have lots of infield prospects, Do you think they might regret taking Bryant over Gray due to team needs?

   Jason Collette: I don’t think a team should ever regret taking the best player over the team need. See 1992 Astros taking Phil Nevin over Derek Jeter and the Devil Rays drafting Wade Townsend over McCutchen.

 

12:35
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
am I holding or selling $2 Ervin Santana before our league’s keeper deadline? I hear whispers about teams being scared off by his elbow and rumors of going to BAL don’t inspire confidence in him getting any help from his home park….seems a sell high while that contract value seems absurdly low right?

   Jason Collette: He can earn that regardless of where he pitches. Just pray he doesn’t sign in Toronto.

 

12:36

Comment From Bill
Hi Jason, can you please pick one of the following for 10 team/5×5 mixed salary cap league:

Yu Darvish for $16, and lose Round 3 pick; Edwin Encarnation for $20, and lose Round 15 pick or Adam Wainwright for $19, and lose Round pick

   Jason Collette: Encarnacion/15th

 

12:36
Comment From AZ
Sitting 11th in my redraft. Is that too early to snag Harper? Just not thrilled with any options there.

   Jason Collette: Paul Sporer & I took him 14th in the Mixed LABR draft and we were thrilled he was still sitting there. After the top 5 or 6, it’s a crapshoot this year. Go for it.

 

12:38
Comment From JTOP
Will C. Martinez be able settle as 5th starter for Cardinals this year?

   Jason Collette: He needs a better plan of attack against lefties in order to that effectively. I would rather see him do that out of the bullpen.

 

12:39
Comment From JV
rank these OF for 2014–Calhoun, Yelich, Prado, Cuddyer, Fowler

   Jason Collette: Prado, Cuddyer, Calhoun, Yelich, Fowler. Legitimately concerned at how Fowler hits away from Coors.

 

12:40
Comment From West Coast
Thoughts on Brad Miller? Serviceable in a 10 team league?

   Jason Collette: Yes, Big Miller fan. Hits with pop, average, and runs well. I’d take him over Rollins.

 

12:42
Comment From JV
Is Carlos Santana going to have one of those breakout power seasons where he hits 30 homers?

   Jason Collette: I don’t see it. We had 13 players hit 30 HRs last season, and 27 in 2012. I’ll take the under

 

12:43
Comment From Jake
What tends to cause reverese splits for hitters?

   Jason Collette: Single season flukiness. There are a few guys who have pulled crazy reverse splits in a single season and them came crashing back to earth the next season.

 

12:45
Comment From AZ
I know Eno is big on Kipnis this year. How about you? He a top-20 pick?

   Jason Collette: Kipnis should not make it to the 3rd round of a standard 12 team 5×5 draft.

 

12:45
Comment From Egg
Am I crazy to want to keep Beltre when it will cost $38? Budget of $270.

   Jason Collette: Unless you have 30% inflation you’re crazy.

 

12:46
Comment From Mike
Any hope for a BJ Upton rebound this season?

   Jason Collette: In small spurts, maybe? He’s a constant tinkerer, and I don’t think his bat is going to get any faster. The slider batspeed label has been slapped on him & good velo is increasingly effective against him.

 

12:47
Comment From Jake
How crazy is it the Yankees didn’t at least pick up Nate McClouth and Jeff Baker? Or said nuts to both and picked up infante/Peralta? Or just got Garza or one of his similarly talented ilk for a third of the price and much much less risk than Tanaka? Or like fifty other critical mistakes jesus christ what is my front office doing hold me

   Jason Collette: Spend big or go home, I guess. They are assuming giant risks with that infield and did not do much to address the depth that an aged roster needs.

 

12:48
Comment From Jimmie
How concerned are you with Matt Kemp in a Dynasty Format. Been offered Desmond Jennings, David Dahl and 10th pick in rookie draft.

   Jason Collette: If that is still in your inbox, go accept it. I’m that concerned.

 

12:49
Comment From Ian
How high do you think Salazar will finish the year in pitcher rankings?

   Jason Collette: I don’t see him as a top 35 starting pitcher by year’s end and that is where he is being drafted. I’m concerned about a workload cap and how he leans on his fastball when behind in the count. He has a great change – he needs to use it more often than just when he’s ahead or even in the count.

 

12:50
Comment From Ryan E
What are your thoughts on Alex Cobb this year? Will he make a major leap?

   Jason Collette: He made that big leap last year before Hosmer domed him. I think he’ll continue to do that in 2014.

 

12:51
Comment From Help!
Last three 2nd basemen you would be comfortable taking?

   Jason Collette: Aaron Hill, Chase Utley, and Howie Kendrick. Kendrick and Murphy have slid 2+ rounds in each of the past 4 drafts I’ve done.

 

12:52
Comment From Chris
Does Rizzo figure out now to bit lefties this year? 30 hrs possible or is 25 his ceiling

   Jason Collette: I can’t rule out a 30 HR ceiling in that ballpark and weather. If Navarro can pull 13 out of his ass in part time there, Rizzo can hit 30.

 

12:53
Comment From Jimmie
How would you rank these pitchers: Jarrod Parker, Rick Porcello, A.J. Griffin, Jon Lester.

   Jason Collette: Very good question – like/love all 4 guys. Parker, Porcello, Griffin, Lester

 

12:54
Comment From Jimmy
Which of the 2nd year players do you expect to make the biggest jump this year out of Yelich, Machado, Profar, Gyorko, and Rendon? Are any of those guys nonstarters in a 10 team league?

   Jason Collette: I like Rendon to make the best jump out of that bunch. I’d choose Profar if not for that shoulder issue. That scares me.

 

12:55
Comment From El ashcan
Just got offered Adam jones for Baez, Abreu, and polanco in a dynasty league. Am I crazy to not accept?

   Jason Collette: In a dynasty league, I have to accept that deal.

 

12:57
Comment From Miller Time
Jesus Montero, best shape of his life?

   Jason Collette: He is a perfect oval right now, so yes. I’d kill for his talent; pisses me off to watch him piss it away. “I spent most of the offseason eating” — awesome professional…..

 

12:57
Comment From Prospector
Keeper question: Cashner (16th) vs. Profar (17th). Could keep either up to 5 years.

   Jason Collette: The shoulder issues push the decision to Cashner, who I really like in 2014 and beyond anyhow.

 

12:58
Comment From Len
Would either team say yes to a Gregory Polanco for Taijuan Walker swap?

   Jason Collette: We rarely see that level of prospect deal…that’s like Garza/Delmon like but at least each player had some MLB time at that point. A Pirates rotation of Cole/Taillon/Walker would be pitching porn to watch

 

1:00
Comment From Guest
Is Nick Markakis done or can we expect a LITTLE bounceback to being an OK player again?

   Jason Collette: I think he is what he is at this point. If he gets on base as he is and can be there for Jones/Davis to drive in, that’s good for the O’s..

 

1:01
Comment From Jake
Ichiro’s got a career 114 wRC+ vs LHP, 104 v RHP. That’s not very flukey, that’s over 8500+ PA. Sup?

   Jason Collette: With him, he pulls off the ball as part of his natural swing. That allows him to see the ball & cover the plate better than a lot of lefties who don’t stay as open vs LH like Ichiro has.

 

1:01
Jason Collette: That hour flew by – have to run and jump on a radio call. I’m out next week attending a family funeral so someone will be pinch-hitting for me.



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Nick Friscia
Guest
Nick Friscia
2 years 4 months ago

For guys in pts league formats, how would you adjust your drafting strategy?(head to head)

scotman144
Member
Member
scotman144
2 years 4 months ago

Durability is HUGE in just about any points format. Ding injury prone guys a little more than usual unless you have DEEP benches or it’s a very shallow league.

RC
Guest
RC
2 years 4 months ago

” Jason Collette: They had to do something here as their window to contend is shrinking. ”

What window to contend? They’re probably 10 games worse than the best team in their division, and have a farm system with some good upper tier talent. It’s more likely that the window hasn’t opened yet than that its closing.

St. Louis Stars
Guest
St. Louis Stars
2 years 4 months ago

God RC you’re so right. Where is your blog? I really need to quit coming to fangraphs. I’m tired of all the free content they provide. I need your brand of hard hitting, nitpicking analysis to better understand the game of baseball.

Bill
Guest
Bill
2 years 4 months ago

This team won 85 games last year. They were more or less in line with their run differential. Their closer lead the league in blown saves, so it’s hard to see them being worse than last year. Only Davis had a career year. So, I don’t see any obvious reasons for them to lose more games than last year. I’m not too worried about their losses this off season. Johnson is by far the biggest and, as mentioned, despite putting up decent numbers, he blew ten games. They added 4 or 5 wins with Jimenez and Cruz and will likely see improvements from Gaussman. This puts them in line for 90 wins. 90 wins might not get them into the playoffs, but it will put them in the running. I see no reason why the Orioles won’t be in contention all year. I don’t buy that’s it will close in two years. They are a large market team that is certainly capable of signing Wieters and Thor, but in two years, the team could be very different. Nobody was worried about re-signing Thor a year ago. Perhaps another player will emerge this year.

Brian's
Guest
Brian's
2 years 4 months ago

RCs point was supported in a recent fangraphs article. There is some contradiction between what the fangraphs chat host said and that article

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