Jason Heyward as a Center Fielder

The Chicago Cubs clearly had two primary areas in need of improvement at the beginning of this offseason: starting pitching and center field. The word was that the Cubs were in on David Price, but we know that didn’t happen, and so instead the Cubs went with a more cost-effective choice in John Lackey.

For the rest of the Cubs offseason, that means two things. For one, the rotation appears to be complete. It’s now deeper than last year’s, still has two aces at the top, and doesn’t have an obvious hole. Of course, if something came up, the Cubs could still improve, but no longer does the need exist for another starter, of any caliber. What the Lackey move means, also, is that the Cubs have some extra money to spend in the outfield. If they were in on Price, that means they were prepared to spend somewhere in the range of $200 million, and on Lackey, they spent just $34 million.

It should come as no surprise that talks have turned to Jason Heyward.

Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago reported that “the Cubs have envisioned Jason Heyward batting leadoff and playing center at Wrigley Field” and that they’ve “had Heyward on their radar for a long time.” Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times asked general manager Jed Hoyer about the financial implications of going after a top outfielder, and Hoyer responded that “We have some available resources. I think that much is clear.” Jesse Rogers of ESPN thinks it’s more likely the Cubs wind up with Heyward than Dexter Fowler. All of this has come out within the last 24 hours.

In addition, the Cubs are bidding against the rival St. Louis Cardinals, and the effects of the Cubs potentially acquiring Heyward would be two-fold, in that it would also mean the Cardinals weren’t acquiring him.

Clearly, the pieces are in place here. Heyward to the Cubs, on the surface, makes a great deal of sense. Theo Epstein stated back in October the desire to improve the team’s outfield defense, and Heyward has rightfully earned a reputation as an excellent defender. The interesting part, though, is that the Cubs are clearly interested in Heyward as a center fielder, given the existence of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler in the corners, and 97% of Heyward’s major league innings have come in right field. He’s started just 30 games in center field, and his price tag is going to be somewhere around $200 million. That’s a significant investment to make when you’re planning to play a guy in unfamiliar territory. It’s a significant investment no matter where you’re planning to play him, but it might be viewed as especially risky given the circumstance.

But should it be?

Anecdotally, signs point to confidence towards Heyward in center field. Despite receiving just 30 regular season starts in center field, Heyward got four postseason starts in center in Atlanta, and two in St. Louis, perhaps indicating a greater level of trust in Heyward’s ability in center than what might otherwise be assumed. When Carson Cistulli searched for baseball’s most well-rounded player, the answer in both instances was ultimately Heyward, and trailing Heyward in each table were a number of the game’s best center fielders, such as Lorenzo Cain, A.J. Pollock, Carlos Gomez and Mookie Betts.

Of course, we want more than just anecdotes. Since Heyward entered the league in 2010, he’s racked up as much defensive value as anyone, nearly all of which has come from his range. Heyward has consistently graded out as something like a +2o run defender in right field, and the difference in the positional adjustment between right field and center field is 10 runs. Even if Heyward were to struggle in his transition, the elite level he’s established in right field would seem to indicate that he’s more than capable of making the transition while still providing plus defense in center.

Were Heyward able to maintain a +10 run per year pace in center field, accruing similar defense value as to what he’s previously established, people would no longer question the bat. Heyward’s ~120 wRC+ is just fine in right field as it is, but in center, it would be elite. Heyward is a significantly better offensive player at this stage in his career than someone like Adam Jones, and Jones’ bat seems to generally be viewed as a plus, for a center fielder. In center field, the only guys with a clear advantage over Heyward, offensively, would be Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen. It’s easier to find someone who can handle right field than it is center field, and so, in a vacuum, Heyward as a center fielder would give his team value in the way of flexibility.

Looking for some potential comps, I searched back to 2002, as far as our defensive data goes, and looked for corner outfielders who accrued more than 15 defensive runs saved in a single season in right field before switching to center field the next season. In 2007, a young Shane Victorino racked up 16 DRS playing every day in right field, and was still a +10 defender the next season in center. Ichiro didn’t experience quite the same success, but fared just fine in his +5 season in center field in 2007. Alex Rios is perhaps Heyward’s best comp, defensively, as both were likely forced to the corner originally due to their height. Heyward and Rios both stand 6-foot-5, and Drew Fairservice found that Rios was just the second player who stood 6’5 or taller to patrol center field for a full season when he wondered about Heyward’s future as a potential center fielder last season. Rios was a +10 defender over his first ~2,500 innings in center field, before declining in his age-30 season. For Heyward, that’s still five years away, and even if a team signed him to play center field in 2016, he wouldn’t be locked into the position forever.

The comps look fine, and during Heyward’s 233 innings in center thus far, he hasn’t yet committed an error, and the metrics think he’s saved a couple runs. He can still do this in center, after all:


Maybe this won’t matter. Maybe Heyward ends up in right field anyway, where he has the potential to be a bargain despite the massive chunk of change it will cost to obtain him. But if your team signs Heyward to play center field, fret not about the lack of experience. Jason Heyward is going to be Jason Heyward, wherever he plays.



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August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.


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David K
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David K
5 months 22 days ago

I’d think Heyward might be a better fit in CF for the Mets than the Cubs. At least there he’d have guys on either side with some more range than the guys the Cubs have (Conforto may not have a lot of range, but just about anyone has more range than Schwarber).

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
5 months 22 days ago

That’s kind of the point, though; there’s reason to think Heyward has as much range as almost anyone, meaning that if you *have to* put someone between two statues in left and right, he’s the one you’d want

Keith
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Keith
5 months 21 days ago

Sure, but we’re also talking amazing RF range. That’s not the same as amazing range in center. Heyward might be a good CF, but good enough to cover the poor ranges surrounding him up? I doubt it.

That said, I still want him, however the Cubs have to get him. If that means the corners look nasty with the leather and Heyward’s a really good CF, but not enough of one to hide the failures of Schwarber, fine. If they can move Soler, then get either a competent CF (Heyward in RF) or a more defensively sound RF (Heyward still in CF), I’m fine there as well. I just worry that the Cubs might have a disastrous defense in the OF next season.

The final option would be turning Soler into something. The rotation is now full, the bullpen as well (though with arms I’d gladly send packing if Soler could bring in someone like Miller, Boxberger, McGee, or another big-time arm). The endgame there would be Zobrist in RF and Baez at second, but Zobrist seems dead-set on playing 2B, so that’s probably not possible.

Well-Beered Englishman
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5 months 22 days ago

Heck, if Heyward can work in CF, he’s a fit on 15 different teams.

fjtorres
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fjtorres
5 months 22 days ago

How many of those 15 can comfortably cough up $200M? ;)

Hollywood Hills
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5 months 22 days ago

The Phillies have a $6 Billion TV Deal and only a sixty million payroll in 2016 with $30 million of that coming off the books before 2017.

The Phillies take in $200 million in revenues before they sell a ticket or beer.

Where’s all that money going?

Not to Kevin Maitan.

Google: Kevin Maitan FREE_AEC

Dave
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Dave
5 months 21 days ago

Gahh…stop already.

davels
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davels
5 months 21 days ago

Heyward is the #5 ranked OF by Steamer. So, he’d be the second best outfielder on 4 teams… and the best outfielder on the other 26.

He’s a fit for every team.

Jay
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Jay
5 months 22 days ago

That clip should be shown to every Mets executive ASAP

Matt
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Matt
5 months 22 days ago

Given that it came against the Mets, in the bottom of the 9th, with 2 men on base and 2 outs, gotta think they *might* be aware that that play happened, even if it was from a couple years ago.

francis
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francis
5 months 21 days ago

If the Mets are really considering going into 2016 with Tejada and Flores competing for the SS job, they may as well pack it in.

Heyward would be a good sign. So would Cueto, at which point you can trade Wheeler for a shortstop ( Aybar for example ).

Add 2 relievers and maybe they can compete, but honestly, the Cubs look way, way better.

Keith
Guest
Keith
5 months 21 days ago

“Cueto”
“Wheeler for Aybar”

And with that, you have ruined the Mets. Wheeler was a 2.5-win pitcher in 2014, and is going on 26. Cueto’s OK, but has also shown a lot of iffy performances. GO look at his 2015 monthly FIPs, where 2 were over 4.00 and 2 more were over 3.60. IS that where the Mets would be best-served spending $25 million/year (given Cueto already rejected 6/$120 million and is supposedly looking for $140-160 million)?

Aybar was a 1-win player last season, is an impending FA, and is about 5 weeks from 32. Tejada was at that same 1 WAR, and Flores was at 1.9. Granted, Aybar was at 4.3 WAR the season before, but back up another year, and he was at 1.5 WAR, and that 4.3 came from a highly atypical defensive rating.

This is all a long-winded way of saying: One of Flores or Tejada should be fine, maybe as good as Aybar, just based on 2015 appearances–throw in age/ceiling and team control, and either is more valuable, to me. Wheeler, just let him rehab into the summer, then turn him loose. The Mets have enough pitching while they wait.

Instead, if the Mets are to drop $20+ million, why not throw it at a young guy with a profile that should age extremely well? You put the risk into the low-dollar guys (Wheeler, Flores, Tejada), and keep it off of your most-expensive asset (Cueto, in your scenario). The big money, instead, is on the high-floor, high-ceiling Heyward, and a real hole is filled (then Lagares can get his arm fixed, Granderson can play RF, and Heyward can go to RF after Granderson leaves, with Lagares going back to center).

francis
Guest
francis
5 months 21 days ago

I started with Heyward, as in Heyward and Cueto.

I think Cueto will be at least as good as Wheeler.

Aybar might not be the right SS to target, but I would send a Wheeler for a SS if you signed Cueto.

And if you think losing Wheeler and gaining Aybar, Heyward and Cueto “ruins the Mets”, you ought to reconsider.

Cub87fan
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Cub87fan
5 months 22 days ago

If height is what is holding them back, I’d be surprised since Fowler is 6’4″ himself…

dan
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dan
5 months 22 days ago

good point. It’s probably the extra 50 lbs in that 1″ delta that causes the difference in perception.

Keith
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Keith
5 months 21 days ago

Yeah, and what about the people saying to put Kris Bryant out there?

Anon21
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Anon21
5 months 22 days ago

Most exciting defensive play I’ve ever seen in real time. I agree that he can handle center just fine, although anecdotally I’ve heard the Braves didn’t want him there because they were concerned it might increase his injury risk and general wear and tear.

Parp
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Parp
5 months 22 days ago

Well, if you can’t be the Cardinals, you might as well try to buy all their players.

woopig
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Brian
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Brian
5 months 22 days ago

One awful burn followed by an even worse one

chuckb
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chuckb
5 months 22 days ago

Yeah, that Jason Motte signing really started an avalanche.

Keith
Guest
Keith
5 months 21 days ago

Nah, keep your PED-suspended shortstop.

Overpay4JHey
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Overpay4JHey
5 months 21 days ago

Aw, the Cubbies have only won about 25 postseason games. Ever. Cut them some slack–they need all the help they can get.

dcs
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dcs
5 months 22 days ago

If he is an average to above avg CF, why was he put in RF in the first place?

Tesseract
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Tesseract
5 months 22 days ago

This has been a debate for years.

Anon21
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Anon21
5 months 22 days ago

Because of his size, and because the Braves were concerned that everyday play in center field might wear him down and make him more susceptible to injuries.

fjtorres
Guest
fjtorres
5 months 22 days ago

…and the expected a power bat.

Stan
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Stan
5 months 22 days ago

Its long been rumored that Heyward told the Braves that he didn’t want to be a regular center fielder. He’s so good that he probably can play it every day, yet two teams with openings there didn’t play him in center.

Not to rain on the Cubs’ parade, but I sincerely doubt they have the money to sign him anyway. Theo said early on that they didn’t have the money to sign the big free agents this offseason, and that was before they shelled out the money to sign Lackey.

Keith
Guest
Keith
5 months 21 days ago

Well, also remember that the Cardinals only got Heyward after Taveras died–which opened a rather large hole in RF as well.

Hank G.
Member
Hank G.
5 months 22 days ago

Not to rain on the Cubs’ parade, but I sincerely doubt they have the money to sign him anyway. Theo said early on that they didn’t have the money to sign the big free agents this offseason, and that was before they shelled out the money to sign Lackey.

Yes, because MLB teams are always so open and honest about their finances.

Stan
Guest
Stan
5 months 22 days ago

Sure they lie. They lie about having more, not less.

Anonymous
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Anonymous
5 months 22 days ago

A team could lie about having less to increase their bargaining power with free agents, I suppose. Not sure why a team would lie about having more money than they do.

Hank G.
Member
Hank G.
5 months 22 days ago

Sure they lie. They lie about having more, not less.

You have an example? Why would they do that? They are always claiming that baseball teams are losing money, not making very much money, or that contraction is a necessity.

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2015/11/16/braves-ceo-baseball-is-not-a-widely-profitable-business/

Baseball
Guest
Baseball
5 months 21 days ago

Mets

Janson
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Janson
5 months 22 days ago

If you are the Cubs and know the Cardinals want Heyward, it’s wise to do some theater to show what a good fit he would be. It is also a good idea to claim you have lots of financial flexibility. And Heyward’s agent will also cooperate in the theater. Even if Heyward is a good fit for the Cubs, the Cubs win if 1) they sign him for less than he is worth to them or, if he goes for more than that 2) the Cardinals pay the Cardinal’s max valuation for him.

Joe Maddon
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Joe Maddon
5 months 22 days ago

One thing to consider is that Wrigley’s center field isn’t very spacious

Keith
Guest
Keith
5 months 21 days ago

Not that it helped Kyle Schwarber in the NLCS, haha. Plus, when it gets down to playoff time, half (or more) of your games might very well end up in a VERY spacious CF.

Pumped Mets Fan
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Pumped Mets Fan
5 months 21 days ago

Hopefully in spacious Citi Field.

John DiFool
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John DiFool
5 months 22 days ago

I think he has a chance at one of those classic age 27 power surges-I mean the guy is built like Dave Winfield. For whatever reasons his power hasn’t come along, yet, but with his build it might be a pretty good bet.

NATS Fan
Guest
NATS Fan
5 months 21 days ago

I would love to see Heyward play CF for the Nats. We badly need a bat that can play defence.

NATS Fan
Guest
NATS Fan
5 months 21 days ago

Heck the more I think about it the more I think he is the best fit for the NATS franchise. We have a distinct lack of lefthanded bats other than Harper. We have an excellent defender earmarked for center in Michael Taylor, but he might be the worst hitting outfielder projected for 500 ABs in baseball. If anyone on the NATS could possibly see this comment…. PLEASE!

Braves Fan
Guest
5 months 21 days ago

I just threw up in my mouth a little bit.

attgig
Member
attgig
5 months 21 days ago

it’s interesting that he never publicly came out and said I can play CF. that can ONLY help his contract & drive up the bidding.

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