Jeff Samardzija Is the Real Deal
On Sunday night against the Washington Nationals, Jeff Samardzija pitched the game of his career. Not the game of his MLB career, but his professional baseball career. After coming to the Chicago Cubs in the fifth round of the 2006 draft, the former wide receiver prospect has never quite lived up to his substantial rookie contract (substantial for a rookie, that is).
But on Sunday night, in a season already treading down the expected and all-too-familiar road of disappointment, Samardzija gave Cubs fans an unfamiliar feeling of great hope. The long-locked, mustachioed twirler stymied hitters and did something few fans thought possible: He pitched 8.2 innings without walking a batter.
Is one start enough to know if a player has turned around his career? No. But there’s more evidence out there, and the signs are pointing up for Chicago’s 27-year-old bust.
The story starts with Samardzija’s pitch repertoire from Sunday night:
Let’s construct a brief breakdown of each pitch:
- • Four-Seam Fastball (FA), used 58% through career: Averages somewhere between 94 and 95 mph (and hit 97 more than once on Sunday), but is a bit too straight. It has a -0.90 wFA/C according to Pitch F/x. Samardzija began moving away from this pitch in 2011, and if his first start of the season is any indication of a new approach, then he’s almost replaced this pitch with better ones as he threw it only 37% of the time on Sunday night.
• Two-Seam Fastball (FT), used 4.2% according to Pitch F/x: The Pitch F/x algorithm has changed a bit over the preceding years to incorporate two-seamers into their classifications, so the 4.2% number is probably not accurate. We can say with some certainty that Samardzija went from throwing it occasionally in 2011 (6.9%) to consistently last night (17.3%).
The data at Brooks Baseball occasionally considers this pitch a sinker, and it is certainly on the edge between an FT and SI. It averages just about the same speed as his fastball, but moves a good 4 inches more. And remember, a regulation bat can only be 2.75 inches in diameter — four inches with no speed lost is therefore enormous. Not only can Samardzija make this pitch fly and flutter, he located it exceptionally on Sunday night (84% strike, according to Brooks, and I count 12 of 19 within a normalized strikezone using his present heatmap).
• Slider (SL), used 13.9%: On Sunday night, Samardzija twirled his slide-piece 20.9% of the time. Again, this appears to be tantamount to a new approach for Samardzija — less laser beam fastball, more wobbly stuff. His slider stays around the mid 80s speed-wise, and has historically, even when he was struggling, been his best pitch. Presumably, if he throws more of this and his two-seamers, his other pitches — the fastball and changeup — can become even better (a la Tim Wakefield‘s fastball). By forcing the good stuff on the hitters — and the FT and SL seem to be very good — his “feh” stuff becomes better.
• Changeup (CH) and Splitter (FS), used ~13%: I’m not entirely convinced these are two different pitches. His splitter and changeup travel at nearly the same speed and have nearly the same break. The Pitch F/x algorithm did not even detect a splitter until Sunday night, so I’m inclined to think it’s all just the changeup. And his changeup is good; rather, it’s good enough. It’s about as fast as his slider and has been moderately effective through his career. As a surprise pitch or a put-away pitch against lefties, it works admirably.
Now we can clearly see why the Chicago Cubs scouts have loved Samardzija for so long — he throws really hard and has some obliterating pitches (two obliterators, to be precise, one good-enough-er, and one uh-that’s-enougher). But we need to see some actual positive signs before we crown him a capable starter. Well, look no further than the past year.
In 2011, Samardzija (who is nicknamed “Spell Check,” so I’m going to just say “F7″ from here on out because Samardzija is literally like a thousand characters too long) pitched 75 innings in relief. If we break his 75 appearances into thirds, we see a very promising trend:
| Games | FIP | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|
| First 25 | 4.41 | 24.5% | 15.7% |
| Second 25 | 3.62 | 19.0% | 12.1% |
| Third 25 | 2.98 | 24.8% | 10.5% |
After plunking 3 unfortunate souls and walking nearly 1 out of every 6 batters he faced, F7 suddenly found new levels of control. He finished the season in style with a career best 22.9% K-rate and 3.85 SIERA to go with a strong 3.66 FIP.
“So he had 50 good innings in relief, you wanna fight about it?”
First of all: No, I don’t want to fight about it. I’ve only been in one fight with a troll — in the third grade — and I tattled the hell out of that kid and I’ll tattle on you too.
Secondly, I said the last year has some positive signs, not just his last season. A recent piece from Mike Podhorzer has many of us suddenly rethinking the validity of certain Spring Training stats, particularly for pitchers. It appears that K-rate and BB-rate may have more predictability (about 60%) than we previously had thought/presumed.
That does not mean good Spring Training numbers for F7 automatically make him a starter. But he didn’t have good ST numbers. He had phenomenal ST numbers. With 16 K and 1 BB, F7 led the MLB with a 16.0 K/BB ratio in his 20 innings.
In other words, F7 has improved his control and stayed improved for 70 innings now. Well, 70 innings plus 8.2 after Sunday. Samardzija has a growing body of impressive work and it is becoming more difficult to doubt he has both changed his approach and found success with the change.
At the same time, though, it would be far too zealous to assume a man who often sporting a 4.50+ FIP in the minor leagues can suddenly become a sub-3.00 FIP starter. And you will not find me suggesting that here. Instead, I will posit that this last year suggests, above all, that Samardzija can be a capable starter. Maybe never a No. 1 or No. 2 starter, but he could perceivably maintain an ERA-/FIP- in the 85 to 95 range (think: Shaun Marcum or Mark Buehrle). For a Cubs organization desperate for pitching depth, that is huge.
Whether he can be elite or not is too hard to divine just yet, but Jeff Samardzija as a starter, that my friends, is the real deal.
You literally used literally to mean the opposite of its definition. Otherwise, cool post.
I literally did that on purpose. It was a SUPER HYPERBOLE — a literary device of my own devising.
I think either ‘oxyperbole’ or ‘hypermoron’ would capture its essence better :)
What Samardzija has going for him that most suprised me was he survived Larry Rothschild with an arm that still functions. Few can make that claim.
I’ve mentioned this elsewhere on the site, but the fact that scouts also see something different lends additional credence to the argument that F7 is a different, better player than those who follow the sport once thought. See, for example, Klaw’s analysis. Same for Mendoza, who – and granted, it was against the A’s – acquitted himself well last night.
His nickname is Shark so you shall refer to him as Shark from here on out.
Among his friends and associates, yes. Among bloggers, F7 is preferred.
It was Sunday afternoon.
Aaaarrrgghhh-can we please retire “slide-piece” already? What does it add,where did it come from and can it go back there? Please?
+10000000000000000
Did you notice his change-piece and fast-piece on Sunday afternoon? Pretty impressive pieces.
Are you a p(irate)?
I heard it from Joe Morgan first, as well as most frequently.
I very well might be mistaken,but it seems to me that it was first used to refer to the slide step. Slide step,slide piece-I can live with it. But somehow it morphed into being synonymous with slider,which makes no sense at all. Adds nothing,and absolutely meaningless. Who’s with me-let’s go!
Slide piece, slide piece, slide piece, slide piece, slide piece, slide piece, slide piece, slide piece, change piece, slide piece, slide piece.
Can I propose that everyone has now said his piece??
So after reading the article, it seems you believe he COULD be the real deal. Headline is a bit misleading. Major SSS caveats apply, of course, but we could finally be seeing the promise that had him so overrated in recent years.
It depends on how you define the “real deal.” Is he good enough to be a starter? I believe: Yes. How good? I refrain from guessing.
I guess the real issue is that you need to stop wasting time with these fluff pieces and get back to making videos from the ST trip. :)
How bout a handclap for the Cubs for sticking with “F7″ ,developing him, and realizing his raw talents out of college. I thought they’d give up on this guy a long time ago but it appears after a strong finish last season and his success in the spring, he may actually be a stud.
I’ll give him and the Cubs that handclap. They seemed to not know what to do with him for the longest time and it makes sense to try him as a starter. If it doesn’t work out over the course of the season, they already know he can be a decent reliever.
He looked so confident on Sunday and threw the ball really well. The learning curve is pretty steep for pitchers anyway, and he seems ready to take off now.
Natural athleticism…guy has it in spades…the sport is heading back towards rewarding that. Year by year you saw his mechanics improve, and with it his pitches have started to take shape. It’s something I’ve definitely noticed, and it was great to see him look like a starting pitcher as a starting pitcher. Seriously thought his mechanics were more impressive than his stuff, because it’s the mechanics and athleticism that give me confidence in him lasting as a SP. Great size and frame for the position too…
Really, really glad the Cubs went through with this. It also speaks towards the benefits of throwing your young SP talents into the bullpen and allowing them to work on fastball command, confidence, and mechanics out of the bullpen.
BTW: Been waiting for someone to do a piece on Shark after that start. I really expected big things for this guy coming into the season, and I really liked how quietly the Cubs pulled it off (though I’m an EC Cubs fan so maybe I just didn’t read around enough).
When the Cubs face the Sox in mid June, I pray for a pitcher/batter matchup of F7 vs. TL;DR
I like the nickname “Spellcheck” (which I thought was ? @JulieDiCaro original), but at least F7 is better than E1.
the cards call rzepchinsky (i’m not even going to try to spell it.) “scrabble”
During the opener the Marlins announcer’s called him the “typographical terror,” which I think should be his nickname.
Great article. The BB/K #’s and 2011 2nd half are truly starting to add up. I do believe this kind of morph is possible with this kind of athlete. Remember he came to arizona early to work on this. It’s almost as if he approached this new higher level as a new sport, something great athletes tend to be able to do at will. He learned how to pitch properly, like it was a new sport.
The Shark is hardly a bust entering this season. Was actually pretty good in relief last year.
Fun fact: Samardzija cut his walk rate, and improved his Str% every month of the 2011 season.
That WAS fun!
I love this stat.
it was almost like a roller coaster.
Say Sunday night again.
I hope someone does because it was a day game on Sunday.
Imagine if he was a two sport athlete… He was a stud on Notre Dame’s football team.