Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/22/13

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: All right, what do we have today?

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: A baseball chat!

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: With no baseball scheduled!

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: To answer questions left in the comments for some reason:

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Zduriencik hires the next manager, mostly

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: No Carson

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox

9:02
Comment From Seth
Who wins?

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: See above

9:03
Comment From Guest
why is joe kelly in the rotation

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: They’re low on options and they seem pretty much ultra convinced that Miller is out of gas

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Also, Kelly had that low season ERA

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: And it’s not like he’s been *dreadful* in the playoffs, he’s just been himself. Get Kozma behind him

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Oh boy, I notice we have a new Tim Lincecum post/thread on the FG front page

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: these always go super well

9:04
Comment From person hscer
Any advice on what to be doing tomorrow at 2007 hours? I don’t think there’s a game on.

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Why, you’re incorrect! There IS a game on!

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: For four hours!

9:06
Comment From Bret
Brandon Phillips for Mark Buehrle… who hangs up?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: So we’ve got $50 million/4 years against $37 million/2 years

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: on that basis alone I figure the Jays don’t go for it, but it’s closer than it seems

9:08
Comment From Dave
Should the Pirates trade Liriano? Will any team make an offer for him?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: He’s too important to that team’s hopes for 2014, and his perceived value in the market is probably still below where Pittsburgh would put it

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: Contending teams generally don’t trade potential aces on affordable salaries

9:09
Comment From KSSoxFan
Woo ERA! He needs to do better in staring matches to have a chance against the Sox.

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Joe Kelly is a perfectly adequate starting pitcher who should not be left out there for very long

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Going to help that he and Lynn should start under NL rules instead of AL rules

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Not going to help that Kelly is probably lined up for a Game 7 start

9:11
Comment From Guest
Where does Leyland landing?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: “Leyland said he will accept another position with the organization. That role is yet to be determined.”

9:14
Comment From FS
Nats will be paying approx more than $20 million for 3 relievers next year: Soriano ($11 MM), Clippard ($4+ MM), and Storen ($2.5+ MM). Do you think it is an issue? How would you address it?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s an issue — it’s really just overpaying Soriano, and there’s not a lot that can be done with that. No one’s going to want to take him at his salary without giving up a similar bad salary

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: The bigger concern is Soriano’s vesting 2015 option for $14 million

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: he’d have to finish 62 games this season. Thankfully for the Nationals, that seems pretty unlikely

9:17
Comment From Izzy
Jhonny Peralta is not in the Top 47 FA list.

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Nor is Joaquin Benoit

9:17
Comment From George
Is Allen Craig going to play? How do the injury experts think his injury will affect him if he does?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: It would appear that Craig is going to be available to DH and come off the bench. Observers have said that he looks more or less like himself in the box, so the biggest issues will be with parts of his game he won’t be playing over the next week and a half

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: He ought to be pretty helpful for a Cardinals team that doesn’t hit lefties

9:19
Comment From GSon
Timmie to Colorado or Seattle.. where his off field recreative efforts will be legal.. Does this make sense?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Still not allowed by MLB so, no, of course not

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: But Seattle does make sense as a destination for reasons other than pot

9:20
Comment From Dan
Fair to say Kelly is a solid #5 starter, just not a playoff starter?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Might even be a #4. As things work out, #5 pitchers tend to suck

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: But he’s the worst starter left

9:21
Comment From Bkgeneral
Homer Bailey a Red next year?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Right now I lean slightly to yes, but it’s only slight, and he’s going to be all over the trade rumors for a month or two

9:24
Comment From Alan
Planning a vacation this winter, where/who would you recommend seeing play some Winterball?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Why not hop around the Caribbean and see winter ball in multiple spots!

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Nowhere better to be in winter than the Caribbean!

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Then submit a community blog post about the environment and your experiences

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: with baseball

9:25
Comment From FS
What is Cardinals rotation next season? Wacha is definitely in, right?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Wacha, absolutely, no argument otherwise

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Wainwright/Wacha/Miller/Garcia/battle with guys like Kelly and Lynn and a few other contenders

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for proceeding a little slowly but I’m also trying to eat right now and apparently I just suck at multitasking

9:27
Comment From person hscer
I’m not incorrect, I just refuse to acknowledge the existence of clubs not called the Royals in Missouri or Massachusetts.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Like they don’t even exist at all?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Who…won?

9:27
Comment From DNA
I think watching Buchholz pitch and Boston batters step out and readjust everything imaginable after every pitch is the most painful baseball activity. I really wish someone would start enforcing the timing rules. It’s unbearable.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how many times this has to be brought up as a topic before someone actually starts doing something about the timing rules. Granted, they’re poorly understood by the general public, and the Red Sox aren’t the only offenders, but they’re playing almost unwatchable baseball a lot of the time on a national stage and people notice.

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: It doesn’t help that FOX has extended commercial breaks and the Red Sox batters are good. Good batters make everything longer too. Can’t help that.

9:29
Comment From AP
I liked your parting “best of the worst”.. but no playoff edition?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: It’s possible; I left that door open

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Also, wildest swings will be coming later today

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Too much work to do them both yesterday

9:29
Comment From person hscer
Do you appreciate the oddity that you wrote about Jake Peavy in the playoffs, bases loaded, 3-0 count, and that Jake Peavy is the only pitcher to allow a grand slam on 3-0 in the playoffs?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: I thought you refused to acknowledge the existence of Peavy’s team

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: That is a pretty neat stat!

9:30
Comment From Josh
Was there anything in the Free Agent crowdsourcing results that really surprised you? Anything where you think the collective wisdom may be way off?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: To be honest I haven’t read through the whole thing yet. I scrolled through my phone when I woke up but I’m on the west coast and I don’t get a lot of reading done before these chats

9:31
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
What did you think of FanGraphs audio today? Relatedly, what are your favorite baseball podcasts or tv shows?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Man, people think I’m all about FanGraphs before nine in the morning

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t listen to baseball podcasts

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t listen to podcasts, actually. Maybe should, but don’t

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t even conduct them anymore, turns out!

9:32
Comment From Guest
do you guys go to the MIT sports analytics conference?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Some people do. Dave does

9:32
Comment From Prich
Seattle for Portland, who hangs up first, Washington or Oregon?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Both of them simultaneously

9:32
Comment From Greg
Any thoughts on Kershaw reportedly turning down a 300MM extension?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: There are a lot of considerations and Kershaw understandably didn’t want to make that commitment during the season

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll revisit and he’ll get paid impossible dollars in the next few months

9:33
Comment From GSon
does Josh Johnson return to the Jays.. or does he revitalize his career in: San Diego, Seattle or some other pitchers park?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I think he goes elsewhere for a year, even though the Jays have the most complete medical information

9:33
Comment From GSon
Better chance at starting for the M’s in 2014: Danny Hultzen or Justin Masterson?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: Hultzen, on account of he is a Mariner already

9:33
Comment From semperty
Is Kelly a good third pitcher, or are we realistically looking at probably a four or five starter?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: four/five

9:34
Comment From Dave
I’m more pessimistic about the Pirates chances than most in 2014, if any other team highly values Burnett/Wandy/Liriano, they should trade them and tool up for a run from 2015 onward.

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Burnett’s done and maybe retiring

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Not that this should be the main consideration but I don’t think the Pirates ought to try to sell another reloading season right after finally making the playoffs

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: They’re close enough for 2014 to be worth a shot and people will appreciate it. Liriano could be of greater value than what he could bring back in a move

9:35
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
How much of the Cardinals pitching success is the pitchers and how much is Molina?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: That’s the hard thing, right? It’s impossible to know the answer. Obviously it’s not like all the pitchers are terrible — and they’re the ones responsible for throwing the pitches — so you figure it’s something like 80/20 or 90/10 or whatever. But we can’t know, which makes it so fascinating

9:36
Comment From Guest
Wouldnt it make more sense for the M’s to sign 3 guys to fill needs instead of overpay for Ellsbury?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Kind of depends on the guys, right? And at some point the Mariners need actual good players instead of positional adequacy

9:37
Comment From Greg
Have any studies been done on how pitchers fare with short rest, or is there too little data?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: What we have a pretty good understanding of is that pitchers on short rest are less effective. What we don’t understand so well are carryover effects, or which guys will and will not be affected

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: For example, Brandon McCarthy has argued the real hazard is in the starts *after* the short rest. Don’t think that’s been properly examined

9:38
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
Why did Leyland leave the Tigers?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Over it, and sensed the Tigers needed a change

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Currently watching the neighbor across the way wash his cat in a sink

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: And I think he just noticed me watching him

9:39
Comment From JAC
Smart front offices hire dumb tactical managers. Do tactics not matter that much? Is the other stuff managers do more important? Do FOs try to hire smart managers, but fail (because it’s hard, for some reason)?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: The significance of strategy is exaggerated by fans because they want things to feel important and strategy is the only area where we can actually evaluate a guy in charge. The rest of the stuff — the leader-of-men stuff — is of far greater importance, and that’s where we can’t have a clue.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: There’s also the reality that there aren’t going to be a lot of brilliant managerial candidates yet, because most of them are older former players and, yeah

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: In time, we’ll see shifts. Front offices will be on more similar wavelengths with guys in the dugout

9:41
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
What do you think of the Alex Guerrero signing?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: He is probably going to be okay and people will not be very excited after the first month and a half or so

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Then he’ll be just another guy

9:42
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
Do you think the Mariners go in big for Lincecum?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: You are submitting an awful lot of questions

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are going to make a significant play. Can’t predict what the rest of the market will do, but Seattle has a good shot here

9:42
Comment From Brian
In what shape are the Orioles really in financially? Do they have the money to be big market and are cheap, or are they really a mid-market team?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Probably healthiest to think of them as a mid-market team

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: even if they shouldn’t be that — even if they should be more than that — they’re not going to be more than that, so then it becomes a matter of preserving your own sanity

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: swear to god every other question/comment in the queue is Danny Knobgobbler

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: good heavens dude

9:45
Comment From KSSoxFan
I hate all of the talk of Ellsbury going elsewhere while he’s still playing, but is there any chance he stays in Boston?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Well, only two fan bases really still care about this season. Everyone else is thinking about what’s going to happen next

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: And free agency/player movement is exciting!

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Very slim chance Ellsbury returns. There’s going to be an opportunity for him to make a hell of a lot of money, and the Sox figure they have the depth to survive

9:46
Comment From George
Question about the qualifying offer and the CBA: If a club extends the QO in good faith, and the player accepts it in good faith, can the club then trade the player without surrendering a draft pick?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: That is…I’m going to need a minute.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Well that was fruitless

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: and probably really annoying for you guys!

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I wasn’t able to find anything in the CBA but I also didn’t read through the entire CBA so I easily could’ve missed something. Crowdsource for a link!

9:51
Comment From Drew
Are the Mariners sticking with Smoak at 1B, or are they looking for an upgrade? Would they have interest in the Padres’ Alonso? He has under-performed to date, but has shown a solid glove, and is only two years removed from being a top 50 prospect. Plus, he is still cheap.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are presumably sticking with Smoak, and even if they weren’t, Alonso wouldn’t do anything for them. He ends up, overall, being a similar sort of player

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Former top prospect who just isn’t actually valuable. First-base prospects are the worst.

9:53
Comment From Joe
are you at all nervous as to what a desperate GM in Jack Z might do to the future of the organization this winter?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say I’m nervous, but that’s mostly because I’ve emotionally uninvolved myself. It could be an explosive offseason.

9:53
Comment From Eric
As a Phillies fan, how long am I going to have to wait for another playoff appearance?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: …4…years?

9:53
Comment From Prich
Do the Reds still have the pieces to be a playoff team, or is the Hamilton-for-Choo swap in the lineup enough to derail the whole thing?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much no player-for-player swap could cripple a team on its own and while the Reds will be getting worse, the same ought to go for the Pirates. Plenty of stuff left for the Reds to put together a run in 2014

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: The window is probably closing, but one can still feel a draft

9:55
Comment From lewish
Are there any volcano’s in the Caribbean?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Are there ever!

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Whole mess of them!

9:56
Comment From semperty
Does Lynn or Kelly get the boot? Maybe both for Carlos Martinez?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I figure it’ll be a big ol spring-training competition, with Martinez representing the future, if not the immediate present

9:56
Comment From Geoff
I will miss the worst pitches and worst swings. :(

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: I will not miss the amount of work they require!

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll need to make some adjustments for 2014 so it’s not all just repeats of the same stuff

9:57
Comment From Tom
Cardinals vs. Red Sox better lineup, starting pitcher and bullpen

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox, Red Sox, push

9:57
Comment From Smokey
The Tigers can’t trade Scherzer, right? I mean I get the argument, but they’re too close to winning it all… right?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Who’s to say they don’t get good talent back? Who’s to say Smyly isn’t ready to jump back into the rotation and succeed?

9:58
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
Red Sox games take forever, will MLB step in eventually and try to quicken up the pace?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll just talk about it instead but no reason to believe they’ll make changes now after this has been an issue for years

9:58
Comment From Beau
Bigger play…Jose Iglesias error or Stepehn Drew divind stop on Miggy’s ball up the middle?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to go with Iglesias, just because at that point the Tigers needed to create maximum outs. They already had the lead

9:59
Comment From Guest
cardinals fans seem surprised by the amount of cardinals hate out there. should they embrace it like they yankees?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: They shouldn’t give a hoot about it. Who cares what other baseball fans think, honestly?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Whether or not your neighbor is rooting for your team doesn’t have any effect on your own championship-viewing experience

10:00
Comment From Guest
which player named Young would you rather have next year: Michael or Delmon?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Delmon

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I’m saddened to learn he doesn’t have an official Baseball-Reference nickname

10:01
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
Any chances Lincecum resigns?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: slim

10:01
Comment From Guest
What are the odds that Carson Cistulli is still writing here next year?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Very high!

10:01
Comment From Razor
Offseason post idea: The wildest pitches of the pitch fx era…

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Unfortunately the MLB.tv archives don’t extend back to 2008

10:02
Comment From lewish
300mm is a crazy number though

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I think the idea was that Kershaw was basically being offered a lifetime contract

10:03
Comment From Guest
What did you think of the White Sox signing of Jose Abreu?

10:03
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
How good is Verlander? Could he be better than Kershaw next year?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Very! Yes but he won’t be!

10:04
Comment From Guest
What is the most interesting thing that the public doesn’t know about Carson Cistulli?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Does the public know about the French stalker?

10:04
Comment From Jones
Would a lifetime contract ala Kershaw make sense from Angels standpoint for Trout?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: it would make more sense than it would for Kershaw

10:05
Comment From Guest
Kendry Morales won’t actually get offered the qualifying offer will he? He’s terrible.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Yes he will and no he’s not

10:05
Comment From Representative Comment
I’ve read rumors on this here internet that the Mariners plan to extend to Mr. Morales a qualifying offer and that he plans to refuse the offer. I’m curious, if the readership were polled as to which party is making the more foolhardy move, what the results might be.

10:06
Comment From AP
If you had a special assignment to cover one season of winterball in the Caribbean, but you had to pick one island, which one would it be?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Probably the DR, but I haven’t been anywhere in the Caribbean yet so I can’t really answer that with a lot of substance. I’ll be going in a month, though

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know if there’s going to be baseball in Belize or Guatemala

10:07
Comment From Ian
Who will be live blogging the World Series?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Dave and I will handle a lot of it; other people will handle the two weekend games

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Dave and I will co-blog Game 1

10:07
Comment From BassmanUW
By “Burnett is done” do you mean he can’t pitch anymore, or more just that he doesn’t seem to have much desire to continue? Because he’s been quite good since leaving Yankee Stadium and the AL East.

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: I meant that his contract is up with the Pirates, so he couldn’t be traded

10:08
Comment From Guest
What baseball blogs or image boards do you frequent? Ever visit /sp/?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: What is an image board?

10:08
Comment From AP
Uehara– fleetingly good or potentially actually good?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: He’s awesome. Been awesome for a while

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably at his performance peak right now, and he’s 38, but what he’s doing isn’t altogether dissimilar to what he’s done

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: As a reliever, over four years: 284 strikeouts, 23 unintentional walks, 219.1 innings

10:09
Comment From Guest
Who wins game one and why?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox; better

10:10
Comment From Guest
How important are Dave Cameron and Carson Cistulli to the sabermetric movement?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I like to think of Dave as a science writer, not so much performing analysis as explaining analysis to a bigger community. Carson is cute

10:11
Comment From cistulli fan
Carson Cistulli calls himself “one of America’s hottest young writers”. Do you agree?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not young and he’s not in America

10:12
Comment From Guest
What was your biggest surprise these playoffs?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Tigers putting up the fight they did with a badly injured Cabrera and a terrible Fielder

10:12
Comment From Jason
Doesn’t Geoff Baker still have to go on your podcast? I suppose he’ll have to write a guest article on USSM to make up for it.

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: oh crap you’re right

10:13
Comment From Guest
What is the future of sabermetrics?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Defense and pitch-sequencing?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Drilling down into details, perhaps. Way fewer attempted sweeping conclusions.

10:13
Comment From Chess
Can the Blue Jays compete for a playoff spot next year?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Sure can!

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: And I think they’ll try. They’ll reload this winter, not rebuild

10:14
Comment From Guest
Koji Uehara signing – great or very great?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Hopefully this allows people to look back more favorably on his previous track record. He’s so underrated

10:14
Comment From Beau
Stephen Drew stop up the middle against Miggy the biggest play from Game 6 that no one talked much about?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Depends. Does Drew still get to the ball, but knock it down and not get the out? Does Iglesias stay at third on that?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: There are so many options. The role of the Monster. Fielder’s godawful, unforgivable baserunning. Veras throwing a curveball when apparently every last person in the ballpark knew a curveball was coming

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: If everyone — and I mean everyone — anticipated the curve, how do you call for the curve? How do you not at least waste a fastball somewhere?

10:16
Comment From Aaron
Who’s a better keeper for my final slot, Alex Cobb or Carlos Santana?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Santana given catcher eligibility?

10:16
Comment From Alan
is it just me or is Choo a better buy than Ellsbury anyway?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Might work out that way contract-wise, but in terms of on-field value, I think I’d sooner have Ellsbury. A year younger and he can actually field on the field

10:17
Comment From Justin
Hi Jeff, today’s my birthday, and I’m a Dodger fan. Can you say something mean about the Giants for me?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Buster Posey put up a .643 OPS in the second half

10:19
Comment From Guest
Best player on either team still playing? Pitcher?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Yadi and Wainwright

10:20
Comment From Guest
Who plays SS for the Cardinals next year?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Someone not currently in the organization. Drew?

10:22
Comment From Matt
If the Cubs’negotiations with Shark stall and they look to move him, what type of return could they expect? With 2 yrs of cost control left, I think he’d be pretty appealing to a wide range of clubs.

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, I could see one top-five prospect and one 6-10 prospect

10:23
Comment From Chris
Should the Sox Consider starting Doubront over Peavy in this series, based on how the Cards have handled Lefties all year

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Nah — Doubront’s hardly pitched lately, and Peavy’s a lot better

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: It’s close, but I think you need better than a Felix Doubront to go away from a Jake Peavy in the World Series

10:24
Comment From Guest
Is Bronson Arroyo (Saturn Balls) one of those pitchers that is better than their fWAR suggests?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: five seasons in a row now he’s been at least 1.2 wins better by RA9 than by FIP

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Reason enough for me to figure he has something going on. Looks like a bit of BABIP suppression, maybe the result of his deception/arm-angle variety

10:25
Comment From Shannon
You should do a chat where you answer every question with a song.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I am more open to the idea than I imagine the participants would be

10:26
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
How good will Shelby Miller be next year?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Very similarly good

10:26
Comment From Guest
Does Kazmir resign?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I think he ends up elsewhere for two years and about $18-20 million

10:28
Comment From Guest
Do the playoff odds calculations include handedness splits?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t believe so, no

10:28
Comment From Guest
Which Cardinal pitcher do you think is least well-suited to pitch in Fenway?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Kelly, because he’d be facing a DH and then he could be overexposed

10:28
Comment From Joe
People are forgetting/ignoring that the reports of 300M include some huge donation to Kershaw’s charity. Not sure the legality of everything but you’d have to think there is a huge tax writeoff from that.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll leave that detail to people who better understand those details

10:29
Comment From Guest
What do you think about Keith Laws analysis? Is he the best baseball writer going?

10:29
Comment From Guest
What do you think of Jonah Keri’s writing at Grantland?

10:29
Comment From Guest
Is Dave Cameron this generation’s Rob Neyer?

10:29
Comment From Guest
Who is more invaluable to FanGraphs: Dave Cameron or Carson Cistulli?

10:29
Comment From Guest
Will Keith Law ever write for FanGraphs?

10:29
Comment From Guest
Would Juan Uribe be worth the QA?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: no

10:29
Comment From Boston Phan
Have you done or seen any work on the umps in the WS and what idiosyncracies they have?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I believe Jeff Zimmerman will be writing something about the WS umpire strike zones

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know how to even begin approaching the rest of their strengths and weaknesses, if they exist

10:30
Comment From Prich
Any ‘get away from society and the internet’ trips planned in the near future?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: week and a half in November, returning on Thanksgiving, getting away before the offseason really picks up. Seems like the ideal time for baseball writer travel

10:30
Comment From Guest
Am I crazy or could Phil Hughes actually be a good buy low candidate?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Not crazy! His problem is dingers and New York is awful for that!

10:31
Comment From Guest
Do you think James Loney is worth the QA?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: no

10:31
Comment From Guest
Are the M’s going all in on Tanaka?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: no

10:31
Comment From Guest
on a 1 to 10 scale how awful is the Fielder contract looking?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: 8? Could be convinced about 9.

10:32
Comment From Guest
How do you stay in touch with other writers at FanGraphs?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Email and weekly conference calls that go too long for pretty much no reason

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: and I’ll text with Dave

10:33
Comment From Guest
What was your vote for the poll q?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: turn down`

10:33
Comment From Representative Comment
Have you ever noticed that Grant Balfour’s last name sounds like ‘ball four’? It’s funny because he is a pitcher, you see.

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: And he’s set up by a Doolittle

10:33
Comment From Guest
What inspires you to write about baseball?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: The constant search for new things to say and observe about a game that’s existed for more than 100 years

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: The game is hardly changing. What we know about the game changes by the day. It’s practically a science, so this allows me to sate my scientific curiosities without going to grad school.

10:35
Comment From Guest
Do you think when the sabermetric movement has passed that FanGraphs legacy will rival that of BP or The Book?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I think at that point I’m not going to worry too much about the legacies because I’m going to be primarily worried about getting a job

10:35
Comment From Andy5
Uehara has always been this good. The biggest difference for him this year was health.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: and avoiding some dingers

10:35
Comment From Guest
Did you get a whiff of Jim Bowden’s piece on the WS today? Could you guys please systematically tear it apart like mechanically separated chicken? There are too many errors to list here…

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Why would I read anything that Jim Bowden writes?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Dave and I have talked about this before privately but FG doesn’t exist to tear down other peoples’ ideas. So while sometimes it would be fun, we’re supposed to remain above that.

10:36
Comment From Guest
Will Prince Fielder be worth his contract next year?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: no

10:36
Comment From marbles
Does Brandon McCarthy have a career in sabermetrics after his playing days?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Not sabermetrics, but possibly writing/broadcasting if he wants

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Could be a studio analyst if that doesn’t feel beneath him

10:37
Comment From Guest
If you were given an offer to write for Grantland/ESPN for more money (but watered down pieces) would you take it?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously it kind of depends on the specific amount of money, but, no

10:38
Comment From Woods
Xander Bogaerts’s name had been kicked around the internet as a possible centerpiece to a Stanton trade. Is Bogaerts’s perceived value now too high for that to make sense (if it ever did make sense)?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I just can’t see him getting moved. He’s going to be crazy good, real soon.

10:38
Comment From CMR
Would Farrell ever bring, say, Napoli in to pinch hit for Ortiz against a LH pitcher in a late-inning high-leverage situation?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Nope

10:38
Comment From Alan
I feel like everyone is applauding the Sox Uehara signing for the wrong reasons. Yeah, he’s awesome, but it was a nice pickup for depth reasons — not the ‘diamond-in-the-rough’ reasons. The Sox signed Hanrahan, too…and gave Tazawa and Bailey the shot before Uehara.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t mean we can’t see it as an incredible value now in retrospect

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: and at least they identified the right depth to acquire

10:39
Comment From USS Mariner reader
I kind of like the idea of signing Paul Maholm. Am I nuts?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Not nuts, just peculiar

10:40
Comment From Mike
Is this a great offseason to get a high upside pitcher for cheap? One or more of Halladay, Johnson, Lincecum, Haren, Jiminez could end up being an elite pitcher that doesn’t cost much?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: But the state of the market could drive up their prices. If most of what’s available are risky high-upside types…

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Also I don’t think there’s a single elite pitcher in there these days

10:41
Comment From Hunter
Are the Angels terrible again next year?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: They weren’t terrible this year

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Next year they should contend for a wild-card spot

10:42
Comment From Jeff
One of the few things John Kruk has said that I agree with was something like “hell, if someone wants to pay me $100 million dollars, I don’t care what time of year it is, I have my agent work out the deal and sign my name.”

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: well John Kruk never made more than $2.5 million in a single season

10:42
Comment From Guest
How much have writers like MGL or Tango Tiger influenced you?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Probably quite a bit subconsciously and, additionally, indirectly

10:43
Comment From Guest
Do you find what Carson Cistulli, Navin Vaswani & co. do at NotGraphs interesting or just silly?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: sometimes worthwhile, sometimes skippable, everything is up to the opinion of the beholder

10:43
Comment From Guest
Is Corey Hart a realistic target for Indians? Decent bat, can play OF, 1B, DH

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: yeah, he’s on their list

10:43
Comment From Prich
Could you do a chat where you answer every question with a question?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: probably?

10:44
Comment From AP
MLB needs a shot clock for at bats. Like a real freaking timer. This is not a question.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I do want to point one thing out about the rules:

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: “When the bases are unoccupied, the pitcher shall deliver the ball to the batter within 12 seconds after he receives the ball. Each time the pitcher delays the game by violating this rule, the umpire shall call ?Ball.? The 12-second timing starts when the pitcher is in possession of the ball and the batter is in the box, alert to the pitcher. The timing stops when the pitcher releases the ball.”

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: People forget about the bases-unoccupied part, and they forget about the batter-in-the-box part

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Now, obviously, there should be some new rules or some amended rules. But as things stand, there are fewer violations than people think

10:45
Comment From boof
wait, how was it that everyone was anticipating the curve vs Victorino? why would a curve ball necessarily follow two curve balls?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Afraid to throw a two-seamer with Victorino standing so close, Veras has a good curve and it’s a putaway pitch. But from everything I”ve read, the Red Sox knew it was coming. Victorino even went into the cage to work on hitting curveballs immediately before the PA

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: It was, apparently, super predictable

10:48
Comment From Guest
Mujika looked good this year, how does he show up as a 0 WAR?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: second-half slump, suppressed BABIP, high bar for relief pitchers

10:48
Comment From Guest
Bartolo Colon has been a great pitcher for a couple of years now. Why isn’t he talked about as one?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: At the end of the day people can’t look past his body. Same reason he’s going to be underpaid again this winter

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: He also allows a lot of contact and had that whole PED suspension

10:49
Comment From Catoblepas
Do you think Ortiz should be starting in NL-rules games?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: In games against righties, yeah, I take the defensive downgrade to get his bat in for Napoli’s

10:50
Comment From Guest
I really am curious about your thoughts on other baseball writers. Please do consider giving me your thoughts on Keith Law, Jonah Keri, etc. Thanks.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: They are all very good in their own ways. We’re talking about the cream of the crop. I don’t know what kind of insight you want me to provide, and I don’t have strong opinions about any good writers on the internet. Good writers are good writers, and I’ll disagree sometimes, and I’d so much rather read something from one of these guys than something from Bowden or the CBS crew

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: It isn’t even about the writing, per se — it’s about the thought processes. I like people who really think about baseball, in all the detail necessary. Or at least in as much detail as they can. Law and I are very different, but I admire the way, say, Sam Miller gets his brain going. Ben Lindbergh. Grant Brisbee in a different way. I’m a big fan of thinkers.

10:53
Comment From Danny Knobgobbler
What is the nicest thing you can say about AJ Pierzynski?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: He’s never done anything unpleasant to me or a loved one

10:53
Comment From Guest
Do you respect BP?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: For the most part, yeah, why wouldn’t I?

10:54
Comment From Catoblepas
best player-turned-broadcaster in the near future? -coach?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Pedro Martinez right now

10:54
Comment From Guest
You wrote “Why would I read anything that Jim Bowden writes?” but he was a real GM, isn’t it interested at least from that angle?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Not really; times have changed and he sucked

10:54
Comment From AP
Is there anyone in your normal life who makes you think to yourself, hey, you should be a writer?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but not people you know :(

10:55
Comment From Guest
Do you think you’d ever want to do radio and TV like Dave Cameron or Rob Neyer occasionally do?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve done a bunch of radio for years. It’s a nice break from the routine

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: I’d be interested in going back on TV just for funsies

10:55
Comment From Guest
Any chance Derek Zumsteg joins FanGraphs one day?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: no, he’s out of the baseball game

10:56
Comment From Guest
Could Halladay rebound?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but he’ll never be Roy Halladay again

10:56
Comment From Guest
What do you think of Joe Posnanski? Which baseball writers do you consider ‘must read’?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Posnanski is an eloquent thinker, and nobody is a “must-read”. Not across the board. Nothing is even of sufficient importance to be a must-read. If you miss a good baseball article, you’ll survive. I hate that term. I click on pretty much everything by Sam, but it’s up to what I’m doing and how I’m feeling

10:57
Comment From Guest
Chapman starting next year?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: no

10:57
Comment From CMR
Best pizza in America: Pepe’s in New Haven. Thoughts? http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57608606/best-pizzas-in-america-named/

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Never been and I hate picking favorites

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: especially with food. the lists are all such bullshit

10:57
Comment From Guest
Any chance Ellsbury turns down more money to return to the Sox?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Not a good one

10:58
Comment From Guest
do the Cubs improve a little bit next year

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: sure do!

10:58
Comment From person hscer
Between Guest and Danny has anyone else asked a question?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: this has been a weird week for this chat

10:58
Comment From Possum
What non-baseball writers do you follow regularly?

10:58
10:58
Comment From Guest
Do you think that MGL will be friendlier now that he has to provide the content of his own blog rather than just comment on others?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: nope

10:59
Comment From Guest
Why was each of the “Fake” contracts so low?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: People are naturally risk-averse

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: And they figure, probably rightly, that the FA market isn’t, at least when it comes to the winners

11:00
Comment From Guest
Do you think Dave Cameron will still be writing for FanGraphs in five years?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: I think so, but it’s hard to say if anyone will still be working on the internet in five years. What will the internet be in five years? What will we be doing in five years? It’s terrifying to actually think about this.

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: for me

11:00
Comment From Guest
Is Eno Sarris the most underrated of the full-timers at FG?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: Appelman makes everything work

11:00
Comment From Guest
Do we properly understand player development?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: not at all

11:00
Comment From Guest
Could a win be worth seven million on the open market?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: unlikely, but, soon

11:01
Comment From Guest
Do you like Steven Goldman’s work?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: seldom see it

11:01
Comment From Guest
Why don’t you listen to podcasts or imageboards? I thought internet writers were more intune with these things.

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: On average they are

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: but I’d rather listen to music and I’d rather not be on a computer than be on a computer browsing whatever imageboards are

11:01
Comment From Guest
How good would a reliever have to be for you to offer him a QA? Basically Rivera?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I think that sets the level

11:02
Comment From person hscer
CBS has a crew?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: They all constantly retweet each other

11:02
Comment From That One Guy
Dayn Perry says hello from CBS

11:02
Comment From JayT
So, what you’re saying is, you don’t want to read anything by Dayn Perry?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: referring more to the Heyman/Knobler/Miller/Doyel bunch

11:02
Comment From Guest
Is Dustin Pedroia still one of the top AL players? For example, could he threaten to win another MVP?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I think he’s very good and ought to bounce back with a healthy hand

11:02
Comment From Guest
Nike just donated 200k to the LGBT sports coalition, isn’t this sort of unprecedented?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll have to read more about this. Kudos!

11:03
Comment From Guest
What do you think of Adrien Gonzalez going forward?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty good for now, overpaid and overrated

11:03
Comment From Guest
Was this year just fluky or could Hanley Ramirez be going through a career resurgence?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: I think I’m on board with resurgence!

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Which makes one really curious about the effects of playing with a team like the Marlins.

11:03
Comment From Adam Dunn
Do I ever make the Home run Derby?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: heavens no

11:03
Comment From Guest
Who are the best managers in baseball? How could a fan tell?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: I honestly don’t know the answer to this question. I honestly don’t know where to begin. I want to start with Joe Maddon, but is that just my own bias coming out? It’s such a challenge. Just, no idea.

11:04
Comment From Guest
What do you look for when you watch a baseball game? Do you think you are starting to watch more through the scout’s or fan’s eye as you progress into national baseball writing?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: It kind of depends on the storylines and on what I’ve written lately. The Uehara thing, for example, just jumped out when Farrell said something in an otherwise useless post-game interview. I like to focus on events, and I like to write about things either unusual or greatly significant, which would have to be approached in a different way from the norm

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: There’s also a lot of time I spend just zoning out. A couple weeks ago Clay Buchholz literally put me to sleep

11:06
Comment From Adam Dunn
Astros, A’s, or Texas in five years?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Texas

11:06
Comment From Possum
What’s the best kind of pie?

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: chicken pot

11:07
Comment From Guest
Are volcanoes more interesting to you than baseball?

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: sometimes

11:08
Comment From Guest
Who should have been the AL MVP this year?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Trout

11:08
Comment From Guest
How can I work for FG?

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Submit articles to the community blog and have them be good

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Or, be a super awesome coder and get in touch with David Appelman

11:08
Comment From mewmew
What country has the best access to a balance of volcanoes and baseball?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: the grand ol U-S-of-A!

11:09
Comment From Guest
Is their an argument that Joey Votto was the NL MVP this year? Or was McCutchen that much better than the field?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Not a real good, compelling argument for Votto that I can dream up

11:09
Comment From Guest
Why isn’t Iwakuma more respected in the Cy Young race? Isn’t he easily a top 5 AL pitcher?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Not easily — you have to put a lot of stock in ERA. But, there’s an argument for ERA when you’re looking backwards, so, he should get more consideration than he probably will

11:09
Comment From Nick
How much better are the Red Sox than the Cardinals? Like, say, if the Red Sox are a 10, the Cardinals are a ___

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: If the Red Sox and the Cardinals played 162 games against just one another, the Red Sox might finish…88-74? 90-72?

11:10
Comment From Guest
When you watch baseball with friends or in a bar how do you balance being a fan and an analyst? I always find myself assuming that everyone else reads BP and FG and then trying to explain my ‘odd’ takes!

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Depends on the audience, but most of the time I just dumb down. What’s the harm? Have fun with it

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Dumbing down is also just about unavoidable after beers

11:11
Comment From Guest
What is the worst part of writing about baseball?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: February

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: But a more honest answer would probably be the around-the-clock nature of the sport. First thing I have to do every morning is see what I missed

11:12
Comment From lewish
A good chicken pot pie…is heavenly!

11:12
Comment From person hscer
“Submit articles to the community blog and have them be good” I have one coming tonight. I hope it will be acceptable.

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll let you know!

11:12
Comment From Nick
You mention that the Red Sox are better than the Cardinals, but how much better? Like if the Red Sox are a 10, the Cardinals are a ____?

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Whoops, answered this already

11:13
Comment From Roy
Next year, Gerrit Cole or Teheran?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: Cole

11:13
Comment From lewish
I can’t believe you are still on here…2hrs plus…a life?

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t believe I am either! I still need to research and write about the year’s wildest swings!

11:13
Comment From Chicago Mark
I think I have at least a decent question about the Cubs and you put up something about the balance of volcanoes and baseball. ????????????

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: I’m really into volcanoes

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: The Cubs are going to be active in the FA market this offseason, but they might be too responsible an organization to end up the winners of a real FA-star sweepstakes

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: But they’re getting ready to begin the transition from youth to developing contender

11:14
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Over/under 160 innings for Justin Masterson next year?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Over

11:14
Comment From Roy
Rest of career…Cole or Teheran?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: Cole

11:14
Comment From Guest
Do you like the random nature of sports? Or do you wish the ‘best team’ won more often?

11:14
Jeff Sullivan: I prefer it this way. More difficult to see things coming. If we saw things coming, that would be the end of sports.

11:15
Comment From Wink
What is Justin Smoak’s potential as a first baseman? Would you rather go get someone kind of horrible like Victor Martinez mostly because you just don’t think Smoak is it? Or does DJ Peterson eventually come to play 1B?

11:15
Jeff Sullivan: Eventually Peterson. Smoak’s ceiling at this point is like 2-3 wins, and he’s not at his ceiling. He’s a pretty mediocre asset.

11:15
Comment From Guest
Red Sox being 88-74 against a team that got 97 wins this year seems absurd. Can you give any analysis to support your claim?

11:16
Jeff Sullivan: Well, for one thing, the Red Sox as a team accumulated 18 more WAR

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: They also had a tougher schedule, and the Cardinals don’t have Shelby Miller doing anything anymore

11:17
Jeff Sullivan: Then there’s the matter of the Sox adding Peavy

11:17
Comment From Wink
Tell me about southern california volcanoes, Jeff. What south of Shasta and Lassen and north of Mexico should I look out for?

11:18
Comment From Prich
Do you hate doing favorites lists b/c you feel they are elitest, and not fair to the objects they rate?

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re not fair, and I think for food in particular, it’s all just based on small-sample observations where people don’t adequately appreciate how many things affect their dining experience aside from just the food served to them

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: Who the hell can honestly, objectively identify a best pizza in a state or a country?

11:19
Comment From person hscer
So the Cardinals ARE clutch? Or, were clutch in 2013? Or, were “clutch” in 2013?

11:19
Jeff Sullivan: were timely in 2013

11:20
Comment From Guest
When was the last time a baseball article changed the way you approached the sport?

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: first thing that jumps out is Mike Fast’s stuff on framing

11:20
Jeff Sullivan: there might have been something since that, though. that’s just been the big one

11:20
Comment From Wink
Have you had a good sour beer lately? What do you recommend?

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: I was just at Cascade on Friday night for my birthday. I recommend sour beers from Cascade!

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: Good god, I need to get going. Stuff to do, stuff to do

11:21
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for coming by and hanging out, and sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t get to. We’ll do it again next Tuesday, and in the meantime, World Series! Or, offseason daydreaming! Be well and have great days




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

5 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/22/13”

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  1. Bill Belanger says:

    Does Jack Z hire the next Mariner manager, or is it Lincoln and Armstrong who do the choosing? Just looking for your educated opinion…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Bill Belanger says:

    Any chance Carson Cistulli joins us today?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Bill Belanger says:

    Who wins the world series this year?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. maqman says:

    Jack Z will hire the next manager per club briefing.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Thufir says:

    “Who the hell can honestly, objectively identify a best pizza in a state or a country?”

    Roberta’s in Bushwick

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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