Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/29/13

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hey all. Late today because whatever

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: It was a late night and I don’t have enough respect for you to show up four minutes ago

9:04
Comment From Justin
Hey, it’s 12:04, time for the Sullivan chat!

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: It matters!

9:05
Comment From Bret
Farrell or Matheny – who would you rather manage your team?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Farrell, because I’d be in the AL and there would be fewer opportunities for managerial mistakes

9:05
Comment From McClure_SF
What were you drinkin’ last night?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Jon Lester PITCHf/x charts

9:06
Comment From McClure_SF
Ouch. Potent.

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Love the World Series and the playoffs, but I’m looking forward to a normal November

9:07
Comment From person hscer
Fenway’s capacity: 40,000, roughly. Boston’s metro population: 4.6 million. Five years from now, how many people will claim to have been there if/when Boston wins the World Series at Fenway?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: 150,000, including tens of thousands who actually were in the general area right outside

9:07
Comment From filihok
Jeff. Any idea why the component parts of WAR don’t add up to a player’s total RAR: 2013 Mark Trumbo for example: 4.5 batting, 8.1 fielding, -.4 running, 19.4 replacement, -11.7 positional = 19.9 runs but he’s credited with 22.8 RAR. Where do those extra 2.9 runs come from?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t figured this one out yet! And for some reason I haven’t asked someone who would know, like David or David.

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: It seems perplexing but I can’t help but feel like I’m missing something obvious

9:08
Comment From Guest
Is the belief among too many people that Ortiz is the best DH ever a recency bias thing, or has Edgar been shafted by history?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Recency bias, team bias, exposure bias

9:09
Comment From semperty
Would you have sent Wainwright out for the 7th last night, or just said good enough is good enough and made a move?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: What I know is I wouldn’t have let him face Ellsbury. Jam shot RBI single, but the results don’t actually matter there with regard to what would’ve been the right decision

9:10
Comment From FJM
Give me a scenario under which the Braves can rid themselves of Fredi Gonzalez this offseason. Please?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Fredi Gonzalez kills a man and is witnessed in the act

9:11
Comment From Sadwick
Yea, yea, you’re late we’re outraged, the angry mob is on route to torture you for your arrogant tardiness. But for now BASEBALL!!!!!

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I just wanted to make a cup of coffee!

9:11
Comment From person hscer
How many tens of thousands? Don’t say 11.

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: …8

9:11
Comment From Jake
Edgar played on the West Coast and Ortiz has the whole wacky character/clutch narrative

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Edgar was underrated by everyone who wasn’t a player

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Also it’s a lot easier to see highlights now than it used to be in Edgar’s days. There is just more footage of Ortiz, and more people talking about him

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Ortiz right now is about 400 regular-season PA short of Edgar’s career, and his wRC+ is lower by 9 points

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Ortiz has two seasons at 160+, Edgar had five

9:14
Comment From pogotheostrich
Once Wainwright walks Drew you have to take him out.

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I can sort of see the argument for allowing him to face Ross, and then it hardly matters who’s facing Lester. But yeah, as usual, opportunity to be more aggressive that Matheny blew

9:15
Comment From David
Steamer has Anthony Rendon at .250/.325/.387 which is actually worse than his rookie year. That seems awfully low, doesn’t it?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Rendon is projected to be identical to how he was in 2013. Argument against is that he’s 23, and 23-year-olds improve. I presume Rendon will slightly beat that projection, but I also think people exaggerate how often and to what degree young players get better right away

9:16
Comment From Matt (Steinway)
How bad is the instant replay system going to be? Are we looking at 5 hour+ games in october? NHL, for all of its faults, really seems to have hit the nail on the head with all reviews coming from above, and the ref just talks on the phone with the league office who makes the right call. Takes about 45 seconds and then it’s over and done with.

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s going to end up a lot more seamless than people fear

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Already there just aren’t that many close and reviewable calls per game

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: And when they happen in the playoffs, frequently right now there are on-field arguments on account of the stakes

9:17
Comment From Andrew
Percentage wise how much of Manheny’s slow hook is due to having two pitchers spots taken up by the equivalent of silent partners? Which lead to other question about what St. Louis is doing?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s a matter of Matheny not having enough relievers he trusts. I think he just trusts his starters too much. As for what they’re doing, I haven’t the foggiest. Not one single good idea.

9:18
Comment From Guest
Does Edgar ever make any of that up, or is he doomed to be forgotten?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll never be forgotten, but he’ll never compete with Ortiz’s flashiness

9:19
Comment From Steve
Ortiz vs. Edgar http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=745,1086

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: EDGAR

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: EDGAR MARTINEZ

9:19
Comment From Gila Monster
How is there controversy about Wainwright NOT IBBing Ortiz? I keep having to deal with people saying walking Ortiz was “no brainer” Aren’t IBBs always bad unless 2 outs with runners on 2/3rd with Barry Bonds up?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Here’s what we know: David Ortiz is good. Maybe, MAYBE, right now, he’s a little better than usual. Adam Wainwright is also good, so Wainwright makes Ortiz look worse. You don’t intentionally walk Ortiz under those circumstances. People aren’t good at figuring out Ortiz’s chances of success.

9:20
Comment From semperty
What percentage of credit of the loss should be put on the players compared to Matheny in games 4 and 5? Is it more about Matheny making wrong moves, or players not compensating with those bad moves?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: 90-95% players. It’s always almost all about the players

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Maness made a terrible pitch. Cards scored one run off Lester/Uehara.

9:21
Comment From person hscer
Between Harper and Rendon, why does Steamer hate the Nats?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: #offseason

9:21
Comment From dutchbrowncoat
edgar also had to share his limelight with griffey, a-rod, and ichiro. i can’t remember any players of that caliber that ortiz has ever had in the lineup with him.

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Damn you Griffey

9:22
Comment From person hscer
Here’s my favorite 2014 Steamer projection: Johnny Damon. Has him down for 0 games, 1 PA, and a .256/.327/.394 triple slash.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: Johnny Damon never had a five-win season

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: had his best offensive season at 34

9:23
Comment From Chess
How about some love for the Big Hurt?!

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Even better than Edgar Martinez!

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Who was better than David Ortiz!

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: In 1994, Frank Thomas slugged .729

9:24
Comment From person hscer
Think Edgar can get into the Hall maybe 2022 or so if the system’s the same?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I think a lot of things are going to have to be cleared up, but I definitely think Edgar’s still got a good long-term shot

9:24
Comment From WWMRD
When the year 2035 rolls around and the Mariners finally go to the World Series, are you gonna be at that game in person?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Actually a difficult question, because the Mariners are actively pushing me away. I’ll probably be at one of the games unless I am dead

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Or I won’t be because I’ll have to be working on whatever the Internet is in 22 years

9:26
Comment From LarryA
If it goes 7, would the cards even consider starting Waino over Kelly?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: No, but you could have Wainwright available for an inning out of the bullpen

9:26
Comment From Mack the Cat
any chance we can make this ford add stop taking over my entire screen and not letting me close it?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see a thing!

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Ha-ha!

9:26
Comment From Bruce
Would a game seven of 2 innings each of wainright, carlos Martinez, kelly, rosenthal, etc be more effective than Kelly

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: Probably yeah. Going to be a fascinating game to observe, if it happens, and depending on who pitches for how long in game 6

9:27
Comment From Justin
Set aside Edgar vs. Papi for a second — who was the better gritty, clutch, beloved-by-his-fans right fielder, Jay Buhner or Paul O’Neill?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: O’Neill had the better best seasons, Buhner was the better power threat, O’Neill was better in the field. O’Neill.

9:30
Comment From Ms Fan
can you give me a reason why Farquhar won’t turn into Wilhelmsen?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: no :(

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: relievers are the worst

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: except for when they’re very fleetingly the best

9:30
Comment From Bruce
Is it Man-ess or Main-ess. I always thought it was the former, but maybe im just wrong

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Same as you, and I think it’s the latter, but I don’t know how much I can trust playoff TV broadcasts on these things

9:30
Comment From Richie
There is a basic human impulse toward ‘acting’ rather than ‘not acting’. When things are at stake we want somebody to do something.

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: No such impulse for Mike Matheny, unless his version of action is chewing his own spit

9:31
Comment From Chris Perez
does Cody Allen have a chance to close in Cleveland next season?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: A chance, yes! A mathematical chance!

9:31
Comment From Donnie Baseball
General opinion seems to be that American League teams are routinely better than National League teams. Do you agree with this/is there any statistical advantage to support this?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Well, for one thing, it’s cyclical, and it wasn’t long ago the NL seemed to have the advantage

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: This year, the AL went 154-146 in interleague play, which is almost dead even

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: A year ago, the AL was 142-110

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I think we’re achieving a better balance

9:34
Comment From danger
Jeff, you appear to be the hardest working man at fangraphs – when did you get to be the best and how do you handle the expectations?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Now this is how you get a question submitted!

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll ignore the first part because I don’t think it’s true and as for the second, by being terrified all of the time that I’m not writing something compelling and original

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: But better to put five hours into something different than 25 minutes into whatever shows up after a game at CBS!

9:35
Comment From Gila Monster
How could you argue for Ortiz being in the HoF, but not Walker,Thome,Bagwell?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Playoff boost would be one argument, and I suppose you could nitpick about the word “Fame”

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: The real answer is, by being wrong

9:36
Comment From Nick
So, Farrell said he woudn’t have PH Lester even if the game remained tied. This is a felony in some states, yes?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Lots of people saying that Lester was cruising. Yes, he was good, and his pitch count was down. For one thing, cruising isn’t predictive. Lance Lynn was cruising until he wasn’t. And for another, there were so few outs left for the Red Sox to get, and replacing Lester with a PH would’ve literally added a large fraction of almost an entire run

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: With Lester batting with two on and two out in a tie game, it’s an out almost automatically. 99%. A pinch-hitter has, what, a 25-26% chance of a hit, and maybe a walk, and maybe some extra bases? A hit scores at least one run. A run breaks the tie. You have to go to the bench. You have to trust your relievers.

9:38
Comment From Gila Monster
dutchbrowncoat forgets about Manny Ramirez….who is better than all of the players mentioned so far.

9:38
Comment From RSquared
Is Kevin Millar the Mike Eruzione of MLB?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Has Millar done low-budget regional insurance commercials?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: “eruzione” is Italian for “eruption”!

9:39
Comment From Guest
which non playoff team this year is most likely to be a playoff team next year? Texas?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Them or the Angels

9:40
Comment From Guest
If Ortiz gets into the hall before Edgar, please come back to LL for a day and write something to comfort me.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I could just write something at USSM

9:40
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
For dutchbrowncoat, Papi had to share spotlight with Manny, Schilling, and Pedro.

9:40
Comment From Ades
What is your projection for Franklin Guitierez in 2014?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: 250 encouraging and bittersweet plate appearances

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: I might be biased, but I think he’s among the most fascinating free agents out there

9:41
Comment From pogotheostrich
If the WS goes to game 7 who would the Red Sox start?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Peavy in one of them all-hands situations

9:41
Comment From poop
Thoughts on Shawn Marcum for next year?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Hurt and disappointing, like usual

9:41
Comment From semperty
Chances of Matheny even considering that?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Re: Kelly and a bullpen game. Very low chance, but I could see him actually taking Kelly out earlier than usual under those particular G7 circumstances

9:42
Comment From Schmiggy
who gets bigger FA contract, Ubaldo or Nolasco?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo

9:42
Comment From Dad
Can Kubel be a starting calibur DH? What is a realistic stat line?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: He is not good

9:42
Comment From Schmiggy
Lincecum deal a portent of things to come or just typical of the Giants to overpay to keep their core intact?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: I think we’ve got both. Money is in the market, and the Giants paid a bit too much of it for familiarity

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Perhaps one could be encouraged by the Giants seeing enough there to believe in. Lincecum himself said he feels like he isn’t far off

9:43
Comment From semperty
It’s Main-ess – for once McCarver/Buck got it right.

9:43
Comment From Gila Monster
Albert Pujols retires tomorrow. Does he make the HoF?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: Yup

9:44
Comment From Schmiggy
did I stumble into the AL chatroom by accident?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Is there an alternative?

9:44
Comment From WWMRD
How much of that is the Astros moving to the AL?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Re: interleague. Astros went 8-12, so it’s not a big factor

9:44
Comment From pogotheostrich
Would the internet break if it was discovered Ortiz failed a drug test?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: It didn’t the first time

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: (trolling btw)

9:45
Comment From pogotheostrich
If there is a game 7, Lester is will be available out of the bullpen right?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he’ll be good for an inning or maybe two

9:45
Comment From pogotheostrich
Is Victorino taking any heat from the Boston media for sitting out the last two games?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, because I don’t pay attention to regional media, but I should certainly hope not

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: And this is why I don’t pay attention to regional media. The upside is they agree with the right perspective. The downside is they just piss me off for drumming up a story out of nothing

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: probably hard to get worked up when you win both of the games

9:46
Comment From Donnie Baseball
Ortiz: seeing the ball well and feeling comfortable at the plate or are Cardinals pitchers scared of him, nibbling at the corners, falling behind in counts, and being forced to throw pitches that get more of the plate?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect Ortiz always feels comfortable at the plate

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s just wound up with a few too many hittable fastballs. It’s a streak, a meaningless streak, but at the best/worst possible time. And now he’s in the Cardinals’ heads, as evidenced by the way he was tiptoed around yesterday

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Well, not tiptoed around, but pitched to. I remember a particular Wainwright AB I might write about later

9:47
Comment From Ajax
Jeff, the balance that we are getting now was accomplished by moving Houston from the NL to the AL.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t explain everything before, doesn’t explain everything now!

9:48
Comment From person hscer
SimCity 2000 had a disaster scenario where a volcano sprung up in Portland. Thoughts?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: There are already volcanoes in Portland so another wouldn’t come as some great shock

9:49
Comment From David
Angels more likely to be a playoff team than the Nats?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll freak out more about the short-term while the Nationals are better set up for the long-term

9:51
Comment From semperty
Do you think we’ll ever see MLB teams set up academies like soccer does in Europe (or MLB teams do in Latin America) here in America?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I…don’t think so. But they’ll set them up in Europe.

9:51
Comment From Gila Monster
Fun Fact: Dan Uggla .179 averaged is tied for the lowest AVG of all time among qualified players tied with Rob Deer(Interestingly enough, they both posted OBP over .310.)

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Yet just two years ago, Adam Dunn batted .159 in 33 fewer at-bats

9:52
Comment From Bruce
more inings, more WAR next year: Jaime Garcia or Carpenter?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: Garcia

9:53
Comment From Perry
Kole Calhoun or AJ Pollack?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Calhoun

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve never had to think about Kole Calhoun before

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: huh

9:53
Comment From Boston Strong
Does Workman have any chance at a rotation spot in 2014? 2015?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: not a high one

9:53
Comment From James
It’s fun reading STL area newspaper stories about Matheny pulling pitchers too early and then coming to Fangraphs to read the opposite stories. Oh baseball.

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not going to say we’re 100% correct on everything, because we’re obviously not, but at least we’re making an effort.

9:54
Comment From Gila Monster
How do I do more advanced stuff with data? For example I want to find all players whose Contact% decreased a certain % over a 2 consecutive years?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Get ready for manual labor and VLOOKUPS!

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure there’s a programmy way to do this stuff, but I can’t be of any service there. I do everything the hard way

9:55
Comment From Greg
Who ends next season with a better FIP-: Ubaldo or Josh Johnson?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Ubaldo

9:55
Comment From potty
List top 3 RP most likely to lead SEA in SV next yr.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Farquhar, Pryor, Wilhelmsen

9:55
Comment From JayT
I’m not sure what Lincecum says should really count for much. What would you expect a soon to be free agent to say? “Oh yeah, I’m toast. Nowhere near where I once was”

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Fair point, but I think Lincecum was talking after he re-signed

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t remember, not very important

9:56
Comment From semperty
Where does AP rank on the all time scale (to date)?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Very high

9:56
Comment From Wink
Who has been the best player in this series, in your estimation, and does it differ from the proposed media narrative of who has been most valuable?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I think the gap between Ortiz and Lester is much closer than the narrative

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: but Ortiz also had that grand slam pulled back, sooooo

9:57
Comment From Greg
Let’s say Trout plays 4-5 more seasons at his current pace and retires – is he a HOFer?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: nope, no real precedent for that

9:57
Comment From pogotheostrich
Chances Kozma, Jay and Freese are starting for the Cardinals next year?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: All of em? Very low

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to get a real actual shortstop

9:57
Comment From Wink
Off the top of your head, are the Cardinals actually worse against left-handers? Is this true for most teams because they see them less?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I think they are worse against lefties, by less than their 2013 numbers would suggest

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: THis season, teams were just a tiny bit better against righties

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: In 2012, the Cardinals were actually the best team in baseball at hitting lefties, with a 124 wRC+

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t know that!

10:00
Comment From Wink
Very unrelated thought: do you think the MLB all-star game would benefit from copying the NFL format and following sand-lot rules. Pete Rose vs. Barry Bonds, captains pick their teams. Last guys selected standing around awkwardly looking at their shoes during the televised selection show…

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: The way I see it, depending on who you ask the ASG is either not broken or it’s not worth trying to save

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine anything that would make me want to give a shit, for example

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: and because of player-safety concerns I’m not sure you can have the desired skills competition

10:01
Comment From JayT
I was surprised to see Aaron’s best season wasn’t even 9 wins. But then I noticed how his nth best season graph was basically a straight line pretty much right at 7 wins. His 15th best year was 6.8. That’s consistency right there folks.

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: From 1955-1973, Aaron had one season worth < 5 wins

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: It was worth 4.3

10:03
Comment From pogotheostrich
Angels need to add a SP to make the playoffs. Best match for them?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: This is just off the top of my head but the sexiest thing for them to do would be to get Price, and if they’re finally willing to dangle Bourjos/Trumbo…

10:06
Comment From Wink
Can you comment on the volcanic activity of the Salton Sea basin? Impressed or unimpressed?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Impressed because it’s potential volcanism, unimpressed by hazards

10:07
Comment From person hscer
More likely 2014 for Trout if he plays ~160 games: over 12 WAR or under 9?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Under 9

10:07
Comment From Wink
Do you know if baseball managers are given formal training in statistics (particularly probabilities), leadership training, and some training in psychology, or are they assumed to have acquired these things through life experiences?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, no, they’re not trained by anything but experience

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: or, in Matheny and Ventura’s cases, not experience

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll *talk* about these things with reps for the team and whatnot, but leadership is up to them and in-game strategy is up to gut

10:08
Comment From Andrew
I read MGL’s post on the PH v Lester AB decision or lack there of, and that it cost 3-4% WE and any decision in the 1-2% range is major. I agree that it was incorrect, the only counterpoint I have is there any way to calculate the marginal value of WE? 3% is likely more important with WE between 40-60%, but with a 75% WE what is the relative value of 3% change? If I am completely misunderstanding Win Expectancy please say so?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Well, 3% is 3%, which means three more losses per 100 games. The only difference in the latter scenario is that the team wins more often overall

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: But the Lester decision would’ve been more egregious had the game been tied, and Farrell actually did what he said he would’ve done. And in those circumstances my guess is that the WE% would’ve been even greater

10:11
Comment From Mr. Jones
If there’s such a thing as an “All Hands on Deck” Game 7, why do managers think it’s a good idea in Game 7, and not earlier? Optimal strategy is optimal strategy, and shouldn’t they be doing everything to win all the games, not just Game 7?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Well the unique thing about Game 7 is there are no more games after it, so you abandon any thoughts of conserving strength

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: but we did, for the record, just see John Lackey pitch on his throw day

10:12
Comment From Bruce
What is the best month to visit Portland?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: September? Earlier if you like heat more than I do

10:12
Comment From pogotheostrich
Do you agree with Fredi Gonzalez that the Braves need an ace to get further in the playoffs?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: That would be helpful, as would any kind of improvement

10:12
Comment From brandon phillips
any thoughts on bryan price? seems to be a better fit for the org. than crusty baker. but, they mentioned changing votto’s plate approach. also, who do you think i’ll get traded to?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Price should be more receptive to newer ideas than Baker ever was. He’s a smart man, and he’s good about handling pitchers

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what to make of the Votto stuff and actions will speak the loudest

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Phillips gets moved

10:14
Comment From Schmiggy
re: Ubaldo/Nolasco go ahead and take a stab at what you think each gets.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: MLB Trade Rumors is better at that than I am

10:15
Comment From pogotheostrich
Playoff team most likely to miss out in 2014?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Reds, if they count as a playoff team in 2013

10:15
Comment From Gary
Best advanced stat for predicting future pitcher success? hitters?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: xFIP-, wRC+

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: among stuff that’s more readily available

10:16
Comment From pogotheostrich
Any concern about Wainwright and/or Lester with the high number of innings they have thrown this year impacting them in 2014?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Some concern. Not great — way way too much we don’t understand — but those are big numbers of innings and pitches

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Could conceivably be a hangover effect, or increased injury risk, which we wouldn’t observe, of course, from a sample of 2

10:17
Comment From pogotheostrich
Where does McCann end up?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Boston?

10:18
Comment From Gila Monster
If you are the Red Sox, do you extent Jon Lester early? They have a $13m dollar option for 14′. Isn’t extending an 30 year old pitcher incredibly risky considering his decline and innings on his arm?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I think I probably let Lester walk and get his money somewhere else, but I don’t have a complete understanding of Boston’s budget situation

10:18
Comment From Bret
Should Josh Johnson get a qualifying offer?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: oh man no

10:18
Comment From Couch Potato
Does the fact that writing about baseball is your job make you enjoy baseball less? Work is the worst.

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Well it’s definitely not a hobby anymore. I’d say I enjoy it differently. I can’t just tune out when I might want to. I seldom feel like a *fan*. It’s underscored for me the importance of having other hobbies/activities

10:20
Comment From Transient Gadfly
Edgar had a six win season. As a DH. How is that even possible?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: #EdgarHOF

10:20
Comment From WWMRD
When are you launching Volcanographs?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: NO GOD DAMMIT THEY’RE A HOBBY I’M NOT SPOILING ANOTHER ONE

10:20
Comment From Transient Gadfly
Sorry, my bad. He had two. And a seven win season. HOW IS THAT EVEN POSSIBLE???

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: #EdgarHOF

10:21
Comment From Scott
Has Ortiz already won the MVP, regardless of the outcomes of Games 6 & 7?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: He’d have to be pretty shitty for the remainder for that MVP to go to Lester/other

10:21
Comment From semperty
Do you think Trout’s defense will be back, or is he basically a league average defender that the numbers liked in 2012?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: He’s above-average for now, will gradually get worse

10:21
Comment From Matt
Does MLB have a Joe Buck problem? I for one find it impossible to watch 9 innings of a game he calls. Much less 6 of them in a row. Maybe that’s why the ratings have been so low the last few years.

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: No, Joe Buck isn’t the problem. I’m genuinely curious how Buck might work a baseball game given a better color guy than McCarver, who is literally the worst. As a rule of thumb all network announcers suck and nobody likes them very much, but football doesn’t suffer from narration by idiots

10:22
Comment From Bruce
Who would make a better baseball manager: You or Bill Belicheck (assuming that as of right now he knows very little about baseball)?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Belicheck

10:23
Comment From Welch
Jeff, was the Zduriencik hiring that big of a misread by the Mariner community? He seemed to come with a lot of positives when he was hired (farm system rebuilding, statistically minded front office, etc.). He seems to have changed his entire approach in his term with the Mariners.

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: We read it fine, for the most part. He just did a 180

10:23
Comment From Scott
If your o/u on Trout was “under 9” where does he “lose” WAR? Won’t defensive metrics likely bounce back to his evidently above-average fielding?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: fewer hits on balls in play

10:23
Comment From Guest
Any thoughts of Matt Williams?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: I liked him as a player in the 90s

10:24
Comment From Gary
Does Tavares project as CF? Or would STL consider parting with an arm for Bourjos?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: He’s probably not a real CF. Bourjos would be pretty interesting so that could be a fit

10:24
Comment From JoeyB
Are the Marniers the favorite team in Portland, or is there a rivalry thing that makes most Portlanders hate all things Seattle?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Giants, but I also haven’t been here for when the Mariners haven’t sucked a lot

10:24
Comment From person hscer
This is really limited, but Wainwright followed up 241 innings in 2009 with 230 in 2010, but then missed 11 with the TJ. So even if that told us much, it wouldn’t…

10:24
Comment From Scott
the fellas on WEEI said this morning they think Cherington will deal Lester this offseason, at his most valuable.

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Well that would be ballsy

10:25
Comment From Justin
If you live on the East Coast, the best time to visit Portland is July or August. Basically no humidity. It will feel like a nice spring day even though it’s 90 or hotter.

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: bingo bongo

10:25
Comment From Old Guy Said…
Love your job and you’ll never work a day in your life…

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Not convinced there’s any truth to this in reality

10:25
Comment From Swon
Are there any pitches that give clear tell-tale signs that a pitcher is getting fatigued towards the end of a start? Other than general control and velocity, of course. It looked like Wainwright threw at least 5 curves outside in the 6th and 7th that just didn’t break.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing is going to give as clear a signal as I think you’re after, but I could see flat breaking balls or fastballs left up as a result of flying open

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe guys getting under pitches, with their arm slots lagging

10:27
Comment From Chester
You used to be my least favorite chatter. Now youre a solid number 2! Great work!!

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I misread this at first and didn’t see the “least” part

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: now it just looks like I included a flattering compliment! aww, my ego!

10:27
Comment From person hscer
If the Red Sox do win in 6, is the best thing about it one fewer games by McCarver?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: That would be the best thing for a lot of us

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: probably not for Red Sox fans

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: although maybe for some Red Sox fans

10:28
Comment From Gila Monster
Koji Uehara is proof that closers are overrated. He was amazing before July 2013 guys…He didn’t come out of nowhere.

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: is *the latest proof

10:28
Comment From Prich
Nick Franklin for Rick Porcello: who says no?

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Tigers

10:29
Comment From WWMRD
Who was better, Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Randy by a lot

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Randy Johnson is my favorite pitcher of my life, so far

10:29
Comment From Max
Hank Aaron had the highest WAR season-to-season among players with his Age every season from age 20 to age 44.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: lol

10:30
Comment From Greg
We needed proof that closers are overrated?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t tell if we actually need this anymore. I think people have gotten it

10:30
Comment From Mack the Cat
i think buck gets more heat than he deserves…dont think the network would enjoy if he pointed out all of the idiotic stuff Tim said during the broadcast…paired with a david cone type i think he doesnt come off as badly

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I think Buck could very easily be competent and harmless. He just gets dragged down by his partner

10:31
Comment From Greg
Better pitcher – Pedro or Randy?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Pedro

10:31
Comment From person hscer
“Hank Aaron had the highest WAR season-to-season among players with his Age every season from age 20 to age 44.” – Holy. Crap.

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, basically

10:31
Comment From Guest
Buck comes off pretty awful during NFL too, so it’s not just McCarver.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Differences between MLB and NFL, though. I only experience Buck as a baseball guy, and he usually doesn’t get himself in trouble too bad.

10:32
Comment From person hscer
Re: Buck/NFL: Troy Aikman had probably 20 concussions during his career.

10:32
Comment From JayT
Randy Johnson is the greatest left-handed pitcher of all time, right? I don’t feel it’s even that close really.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: No contest

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: Randy was impossible

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: fun facts: this Randy Johnson http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsra03.shtml

10:33
10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Lefties against actual Randy Johnson, career: .199/.278/.294. Now consider the era

10:34
Comment From Yuri
Stop defending Joe Buck. If his dad was a postal worker he wouldn’t have this job.

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody with a good job gets there with luck

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Buck is bad. I don’t think he’s *good*, but I don’t think he’s bad. He’s rice. You need something tasty to go along with rice.

10:35
Comment From Giants fan
Sandy Koufax was a southpaw, so maybe a little closer than “no contest”

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Considering only peak, there’s some contest, but then Randy had all the durability

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: And if you want to allow me to cheat, players now are better than they’ve ever been before, and Randy would’ve destroyed Koufax’s numbers in the same era! Yeah!

10:36
Comment From Kimball
Re: Lincecum, but also more generally: If a player underperforms his peripherals, can’t we conclude that he’s probably *less* valuable to his own team than he might be to another, since if most of the factors out of his control stay the same, it’s more likely he’ll underperform again?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: I see what you’re getting at, but I think the consensus is that with Lincecum, he underperforms because of himself, not because of his setting

10:37
Comment From pogotheostrich
If nothing else Buck is fun for me to see the rest nation claim he is a Cardinal homer while all of St. Louis complains he is a sellout and roots against the Cardinals.

10:37
Comment From JW
Yuri probably gets at the true Joe Buck hate: jealousy. Why does a seemingly bland dude get to call every major sports event? I think the average fan thinks it’s an easy job, which it is 100% not

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: There’s value in being able to reliably cover multiple sports without being a complete failure. Buck knows how to do what he does and he does it all the time, without fail. For FOX, he makes things easy, and while they could do better with both baseball and football, ther’es no real gain to making things more complicated. Announcers don’t drive ratiings or bring in more/less money

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Some people clamoring for a Warren Spahn shoutout. Hey, good on you, Warren Spahn, you were all right

10:39
Comment From JayT
Even looking at peak, choosing Koufax’s six best years (basically all his good years) 50.1 WAR, for Johnson his six best was 56.5.

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: #RandyHOF

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: #EdgarToo

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Pedro and Randy going on the ballot for the first time in the same year. Awesome

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: All right you guys, I’ve got other stuff to get to. Time to close this one down!

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you for hanging out, sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address, and we’ll do it again next Tuesday, by which point we’ll have long since decided a 2013 World Series champion. Do your best from now until then, and have great days



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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LaLoosh
Guest
LaLoosh
2 years 7 months ago

ooh, so much McCarver hating. Not everyone can be Keith Hernandez.

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