Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/12/13

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, this is a baseball chat

9:00
Jeff Sullivan: In this chat we will talk about baseball, for what usually ends up being something like 110 minutes even though that is too long

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe today I’ll shoot for 90!

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Hold on one second, having trouble with the CiL classic window…

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: ugh okay finally, geez

9:03
Comment From Guest
Do you believe in the “Coors Field Hangover”? And do you think it may be incorporated into statistics in the future?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: I’m pretty convinced — when I saw the evidence some years ago, it was fairly damning. Would like to see it repeated to see if the same conclusions are reached. I don’t think this is the sort of thing that’ll end up in the statistics — I think it’ll be a separate consideration

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: PITCHf/x might one day allow us to improve our Coors Field pitching park factors if we can narrow down effects on trajectories/spin

9:05
Comment From Steve
Hi Jeff! Is there a difference between RA9 and ERA? Seems like all the stats guys talk RA9… they sound the same to me..

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: RA9 is all runs, ERA is earned runs

9:05
Comment From Eno Montoya
Do agents have stat guys? Will they have access to Fieldf/x?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Some agents do but FIELDf/x doesn’t really exist

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: It’s been attempted, but at this point it’s a lot more theory than reality

9:06
Comment From Marty
Jeff, considering all the content you’ve put out recently, care to comment on the rumors that you are indeed a machine, or at least a cyborg?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Cyborgs aren’t habitually late for everything

9:07
Comment From Los
Should the Tigers trade Max Scherzer or Rick Porcello? (Feel free to plug your article…free advertisement)

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: If there does exist out there a Scherzer blockbuster package, then the Tigers should highly consider it. Porcello isn’t THAT much worse. But I don’t think a team is going to pay out the ass for one year of a good starter, and the Tigers are a win-now team, the sort of team that wants a guy like Scherzer in the first place

9:08
Comment From Seymour
Byrd is now Philthy!

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: 2/$16 million. I still don’t quite know what to make of Marlon Byrd, but I’m just pleased the Phillies said no to $50+ million for Nelson Cruz

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: that was always going to be the nightmare outcome

9:10
Comment From NoBattingGloves
Teveras for Profar striaght up… who says no?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: My sense is that the Rangers do. Profar’s younger and had a more complete 2013

9:10
Comment From Jake
Where do you stand on what the Cardinals should do at SS? Sell a big chunk of the farm for Tulo or go for one of the cheaper options? (Kozma is not an option)

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I like what they’d have to pay to land Tulowitzki. I’m intrigued by the idea of their going hard after Andrus. I think they could do just fine settling for a Drew or Ramirez

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: There are spots right now for al ot of their young players, so shedding some of them for a shortstop makes the team worse while making the team better

9:12
Comment From pau
Happ, Arencibia, Gose, Osuna for Jason Castro?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: That feels light

9:13
Comment From EGL
Who gets your vote for the unluckiest franchise of the last decade ?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Oof. A’s have been unluckiest in the playoffs, Rangers have been unlucky to lose some World Series…

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: …Jays/O’s/Rays have been unlucky to be trapped with the Sox and Yankees…

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Indians have had smarts and some unfortunate execution

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Indians? That’s a tough one.

9:14
Comment From Marty
Considering Corbin’s one awesome pitch, and other fringe pitches, do you think he’s destined to the bullpen long-term?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Joe Saunders has made 221 career starts and he doesn’t have anything as dominant as Corbin’s slider. Corbin’s a starter for a long time

9:15
Comment From Evan
Will Adams, Miller, and Maness plus a kicker like Mike O’Neill be enough for STL to get Tulo?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: It should be, but I don’t know that it would be, given what Tulo means to his current franchise

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: I think they could very well put too high a price tag on him to move him

9:16
Comment From DNA
What’s your guess on the Marlon Byrd deal Dollars?

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t have to guess! $16 million, 2 years

9:16
Comment From George
I think I saw that Denard Span was available. Could you comment on whether you think a Reds-Nationals trade involving Brandon Phillips and Span could work. My thought was that Billy Hamilton could play second (I’ve seen reports that the Reds brass likes him there).

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Reds need to sweeten the package — Span’s better and cheaper, and Phillips has money coming for a while

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: As a core of a deal, it makes some sense, but it’s far from complete

9:19
Comment From person hscer
Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: The correct answer to this one is yes, right?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Used to know it and understand it. That was years ago. I’ve since forgotten how the probability works out but I think I remember the punchline

9:22
Comment From rayn
been having a debate with a friend…who has more value over next 5-7 years(accounting for ceiling and floor) between freddie freeman and Wil Meyers? How close is the decision, and what is deciding factor?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’ll be Myers by a little bit, because I think he’s going to hit for a bunch more power

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I usually don’t bet on first basemen

9:23
Comment From person hscer
If there’s a question more popular than the single best pitching stat, it’s fieldfx. Every week you and Dave have to tell people it doesn’t exactly exist

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: It was very disappointing to me when I learned about that, considering what’s going on these days in the NBA. FIELDf/x is a mess. But at least HITf/x is real. HITf/x is pretty neat. But FIELDf/x means we’re going to be using a lot more UZR for a long long time

9:25
Comment From Steve
If you were the Angels, which 2-3 SP would you pursue??

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t they just sign Chris Volstad? Problems addressed!

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: As with all teams, I think they should be in pretty hard on Tanaka if they can afford it. Rick Porcello wouldn’t cost them a bunch, and he could be a better investment than Jason Vargas. It might be possible to pry away Felix Doubront. They could probably turn Bourjos into a damn talented young #2/#3

9:27
Comment From RotoLando
Thanks for the chat, Jeff. Do you keep tabs on international prospects at all? I’m trying to find info on Alfredo Desplaigne since the WBC.

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Good luck. Even if you try to stay close to the Cuban guys, you’re not going to learn very much. I believe he’s outstanding, but I haven’t heard anything about his suddenly becoming available

9:28
Comment From Nico
Jed Lowrie probably wouldn’t cost too much for the Cardinals. Is he worth a look and what might the A’s want?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: They can get someone good for cheaper. Don’t think Oakland’s in a hurry there

9:29
Comment From person hscer
is someone going to say yes to $50+ million for Nelson Cruz?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: The most likely team just signed Marlon Byrd instead. I think it’s possible, but only if the market ends up being super inflated. Teams aren’t dumb anymore, and Cruz was also just suspended

9:29
Comment From Guest
Case to be made that 2/$16 is a reasonable deal for the Phillies but would have been an awful deal for the Pirates? I think so — Polanco + smaller market + 2016 widest window.

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates say they don’t have a whole lot of money, so I don’t think it would’ve been right for them to give eight figures to a mysterious Marlon Byrd. Save the money for where it can make a real substantial impact

9:31
Comment From Guest
Hey, how come FG and BR disagree on how many career PA Kenny Lofton had?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Time to play detective!

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: At issue is 1999. FG says 560, BR says 561

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I am going through the game logs right now, by the way

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: one minute

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Well this is really annoying

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: And the answer is:

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: They don’t disagree.

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Add up the PA in Lofton’s 1999 FG game long, and you get 561, agreeing with BR.

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Lofton’s player page shows 560, and that just isn’t correct.

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: So the issue is in between the game log and the player page itself. What a worthwhile use of my time, and your time :(

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: so sorry you guys

9:40
Comment From semperty
Do you see a way that we can take the intangibles catchers provide (i.e. controlling a staff) and make them tangible someday?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: I think eventually we might be able to do something with game-calling. Maybe end up with a much better, more complex, more accurate sort of catcher ERA. You do, though, get into kind of the same problem you get into with trying to evaluate managers. There’ll be a future in seeing how new pitchers adjust to a catcher, as opposed to incumbent pitchers

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s say Catcher A makes the average pitcher 5% better. Let’s say Catcher A caught Pitcher X, but didn’t catch Pitcher Y, who was signed as a free agent. Pitcher X will already have Catcher A influence in his numbers, so Pitcher Y would be the one to watch.

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: But players will affect different players in different ways so, ultimately, good luck, researchers.

9:44
Comment From Daniel Carroll
What does HITf/x provide? Bat speed and ball trajectory off the bat? What else?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Cory also explained that we can expect the roll out of Hit-f/x, a system similar to Pitch-f/x that would use the technology already in place to track the initial batted ball data. Trajectory, angle, velocity, etc. measurements would all be recorded but the technology would be limited to just the initial batted ball data. The Hit-f/x system would not be able to track the entire trajectory of batted balls

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: That was some years ago. There might have been improvements since

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Interesting to see Carlos Gomez look so bad, in 2008

9:48
Comment From John
If you’re Dan O’Dowd what is the minimum package you would accept from the Cardinals for Tulowitzki?

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: Probably something similar to the Adams/Miller/2 others proposal somewhere above

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t think the Rockies would actually go for that. I think they’ll be too hung up over Tulowitzki’s name and ability and they’ll be looking for a giant blockbuster

9:50
Comment From Bret
Should signing Byrd, who is baseball old, effect the age of targets the Phillies seek for the rest of their vacancies (a catcher and starter)? Would, say, Ruiz and Arroyo – two names linked to them – be less appealing today than they were yesterday?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: No, I don’t think there’s any relationship

9:51
Comment From Dan Calleja
(Tigers fan here) If I could find a way not to trade either of them I would do it. I just don’t think that we’d get enough back for what we’d be giving away in both cases. Scherzer is good for a win-now team and theres no bigger win-now team than Detroit, and Porcello is finally turning the corner and learning how to constantly pound the strikezone, but because of his past inconsistencies heis value will get lowballed to death and it just doesn’t justify it IMO. The Tigers appear to be approaching a deal with Joe Nathan to close, and if we can sign one more FA bullpen arm I would be comfortable with the situation. Having Castellanos train with Cabrera during the offseason and pack on muscle and then sending him an invite to Spring Training with a change to win a platoon spot in LF with Dirks is the route I think the Tigers should take.

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, teams aren’t dumb — they’re not going to lowball on Porcello because they think he isn’t good. They know how he improved and they know what he’s capable of

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Issue is, while Porcello has made himself better, he’s also not going to be cheap the next two years, which erases a lot of his surplus value. So with Smyly available as a cheap starter, the Tigers might be able to use that money better

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how the Porcello market looks, but it makes a lot of sense to send him packing for some kind of help at 2B or LF

9:53
Comment From Gila Monster
Do we often under estimate the mental side of playing professional sports? Dealing with defeat,sometimes not being good enough,traveling all the time,dealing with criticism…etc. Are you surprised we don’t have more Khalil Greenes or Dontrelle Willis guys? Or do you believe they get weeded out at a earlier level?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: I think the big leagues are selective for guys who have demonstrated a sustained ability to be able to handle the mental strains of the game. It’s not perfect, obviously, and within the big-league population there will be best guys and worst guys, but it selects against “weakness”. If you can’t take it, you probably won’t survive the minors and thrive in them too

9:55
Comment From Guest
Camden Chat suggested a trade of Porcello for Jim Johnson – fair?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Tigers can do better

9:55
Comment From RA Rowe
Do you have any insight into whether Matt Williams is a disciple of Kirk Gibson, or if he has a more modern mentality?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: “Oh, and he’s hired a seventh coach who’ll be in charge of radical defensive positioning, advance scouting and aligning pitching theory with defensive patterns. Williams mentioned that two Diamondbacks just won Gold Gloves this week. (No Nats did.) Did somebody say defense? ”

9:57
Comment From semperty
What do you think the Cardinals would have to give up for Andrus?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if Miller might do it

9:58
Comment From Aceathon
I want the Rangers to trade an extra middle infielder just so I don’t have to hear any more ridiculously stupid homer trade ideas. Is this a normal feeling?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Resignation! Yes

9:58
Comment From Los
What direction do you think the Pirates will go this offseason? Any chance they go after Tulo or Stanton? I feel like they have some overrated pieces in the minors.

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: I had them pegged for a Stanton run but now I’m actually getting the sense he’s truly not available yet. Tulo seems pretty unlikely. I think the Pirates stick to the second and third tiers in terms of acquisitions, maybe gearing up to take a real run at Stanton somewhere in 2014. Now isn’t the time to go all in, and they don’t seem to have a lot of budget room, hence the Burnett decision

10:00
Comment From RA Rowe
How long before someone asks about some whacky Stanton trade scenario?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I kind of feel like it’s always there just under the surface. Every question stands a >50% chance of being a Stanton question. It’s incredible to me the Marlins are calling him unavailable — I don’t know why they think he might sign an extension there

10:01
Comment From RA Rowe
I think I saw Dave Cameron at an AFL game last Friday. Do you have any information that could confirm/disprove my Dave Cameron sighting?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: You didn’t

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: unless you’re referring to the Australian Football League?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: in which case you still didn’t

10:03
Comment From RSquared
Pollock/Eaton, Ozuna/Marisnick, G.Brown- these young OF’s are blocked. Who has the best value in a trade? What would that price be?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Gary Brown isn’t actually good

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Pollock is probably your man, but he’s not fetching a bunch on the market

10:04
Comment From Jacque
What would your Jason Castro stat line estimate look like in a couple years? Is he a 25-30 HR guy?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Just hit 18, clobbered a few north of 425 feet including one at 453

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he tops out closer to 20 just because of catcher playing time, but he can probably stick around the vicinity of an .800 OPS

10:08
Comment From John
Lackey and Daniel Nava for Brandon Belt. Who says no?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Probably the Giants, but it’s interesting to remember that in 2015 John Lackey will cost the major-league minimum

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Bless that contract clause

10:09
Comment From Marty
Would you rather sign 3 2-win players or one 6-win player, all else equal?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: One 6-win player

10:10
Comment From GSon
Who replaces AJ Burnett in Pittsburgh?. Internal / external candidates?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly probably AJ Burnett

10:10
Comment From Guest
You’re a young pitcher making league minimum and you’ve just been traded to the Rockies. What’s your reaction?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I’m probably excited to have an opportunity and I’m probably overconfident in my own abilities on the mound

10:10
Comment From Colin
So Jed and Theo seem to be talking like they’re going to start signing FAs that are bit more than flippable assets. Is it crazy to think they’d be in on someone like Ubaldo Jimenez? Crazier even, Matt Garza? Less crazy idea though, Josh Johnson.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: They just gave Edwin Jackson a four-year contract a winter ago

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Expect them to be involved for good players who might be a little bit undervalued. Probably not Garza. Very possibly Johnson

10:12
Comment From Gila Monster
How much does location or team vision matter to free agents? I mean I would not want to live in say Milwaukee even for millions more and I think you need significantly more money in Kansas City or Seattle to prevent yourself from going on a rampage though the front office.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: The obvious answer is the factors matter differently to different players. Location is more important for, say, Hiroki Kuroda than for the average free agent. Theyl’l usually say they want to sign with a winner, but it’s usually winners or borderline winners who have the cash to spend and money can always offset other sacrifices. Most players probably don’t see anything wrong with what’s going on in KC, for that matter — they see a team that is rolling the dice, really “going for it”. That’s appealing to big leaguers

10:15
Comment From A. Lane
On the Porcello v Scherzer decision, are not the prospective trade destinations different, or not really?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Scherzer’s got a year left, so he’d only go to a place that intends to win right away. Porcello has more time

10:15
Comment From person hscer
Yeah the new NBA stats–from NBA.com!–are quite the thing. Can you imagine MLB trying to decide between the WAR’s for posting on their website, at least under Bud? Yeah, me neither ;p

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know anything about the NBA and I don’t understand anything about the NBA’s statistics, but I know that, analytically, they’re doing amazing things and baseball fans should be envious

10:16
Comment From Jays fan
Would someone actually trade for Arencibia? If yes, what would this trade look like?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: crap

10:16
Comment From Matt
What are they chances the Mariners are smart and just let Kendrys walk and collect a draft pick after dodging a bullet that was his qualifying offer?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: 25%

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: They really want him back. Maybe, just maybe, they’ll be able to re-sign him for something reasonable

10:17
Comment From DTSS
HITf/x is a reality, though, right? And only the teams have access to it.

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: HITf/x is real, most teams use it, certain teams use it better than certain other teams

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: It’s also not exactly a holy grail. It’s just more useful than what we have on the outside

10:18
Comment From Bill
Considering the QO-pick and everything else, what contract for Cruz would actually be a good signing for the team? 2/15?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly? Even that might be too much.

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: He’s 33, he’s not durable, he’s not a good defender, he’s not a good runner, and he’s just an above-average bat. With the QO, I’d just stay away completely

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: but I don’t know how the market is actually going to shake out this winter, in terms of $ for wins

10:20
Comment From Steve
Sorry for the Angels questions… but what’s the deal with waiting on talking contract with Trout? Do they expect his value to fall? I feel like next year they’ll be in a worse negotiations spot with arbitration coming

10:21
Comment From zmiko
I’m really worried that the rockies are going to pay for Nelson Cruz

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: I’d be terrified

10:22
Comment From Catoblepas
do you think there will ever be park adjustments for fielding? Will it be possible to quantify how much it sucks fielding on turf?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: We already have some park adjustments for fielding, like playing LF in Fenway

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: If you trust UZR at all, it’s not hard to make those leaps

10:22
Comment From zmiko
What do you think of the Rockies supposedly wanting to give Ruiz multiple years and move Rosario to 1B/RF?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I think the Rockies have seen even more of Wilin Rosario catching than I have, and I’ve seen just about enough

10:23
Comment From Marty
Do you think DeJesus gets more or less than Byrd?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: He already got less. $10.5 million/2 years

10:23
Comment From Guest
The season Uehara just had has to be a top 5 ever for a reliever right?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Gotta be

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Walked a batter on July 3. From Independence Day through the end of the season, he allowed a .238 OPS

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: That’s .238, as an OPS

10:24
Comment From Daniel Carroll
For all the crap Jack Z has gotten in Seattle for the “All DH’s all the time” strategy, he certainly didn’t commit an enormous amount of resources to the idea (just a few years of Jaso and some cash). Isn’t 2013 really the anomaly in his tenure?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: He came up with and hyped a bad plan. He also got some lousy luck, albeit luck he wasn’t prepared for (like Gutierrez getting hurt). I think it’s easy to exaggerate how stupid that all was, but it also did nothing to fill us with confidence that the ship’s headed in the right direction. It was essentially a waste of a year

10:26
Comment From Eastern NC
Do you think all the relievers will be overpaid this winter, or just the closers?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’ll be paid fairly sensibly, possibly excepting the Tigers and whichever closer they sign

10:27
Comment From Jason
Would Porcello and the Pirates be a good match?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: He might cost a bit too much in terms of salary. Looking at something like $18 million over the next two years

10:27
Comment From Bill
So it’s Manager of the Year day. Excited to hear it explained that leadership and skippering was really responsible for the Red Sox’s big turnaround?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I swear to god I have an actual opinion on this

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: I think Joe Girardi got jobbed

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Not even a finalist. Look at the crap hand he was dealt! Look what he did!

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: We don’t know anything about managing, but we have a good sense that Girardi had a tougher job than Farrell did, and the Yankees were actually competitive

10:28
Comment From Prich
Of the four tradeable pitchers the Tigers have, rank who brings the biggest return of: Scherzer/Porcello/Smiley/Fister

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Fister/Smyly/Scherzer/Porcello

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: maybe flip Smyly and Scherzer but that one year is a big deal

10:30
Comment From Prich
Your gut feeling, % that each is dealt this offseason: Ackley, Franklin

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: One of them will be traded and my sense is it’ll be Ackley

10:30
Comment From RotoLando
The Great Kenny Lofton PA Scandal of 2013 will be pretty hard to just ignore now. I think I might go home early.

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: /writes 1500-word FG post

10:30
Comment From Justin
Is Matt Kemp: Superstar ever coming back, or should I get used to seeing Mr. Glass high-fiving guys from the bench for the next several years?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll be a good player again. He won’t be an 8-win player again

10:32
Comment From Catoblepas
It’s different than evaluating managers, though, in that it matters way more, right? Or is much of catcher value tied up in things like leadership (as with managers) that we just can’t possibly measure?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I think the bulk of what we have left to measure with catchers is game-calling. Ultimately that’s where the runs are saved. With managers, who’s to say how important they are? We really don’t know. Who would’ve guessed that framing could be worth tens of runs over one season? Managers might be the most important hire of all. Can’t say

10:33
Comment From Team Theo
Thoughts on the Renteria hiring by Theo? Will it real matter, or is this another stop gap as we await Baez, Bryant, Soler, Almora arrival?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: They think they hired the right guy for a while, and we have little choice but to take them at their word

10:35
Comment From Guest
Assuming health and sufficient defensive prowess, what sort of offensive production at 1B will be necessary for Joe Mauer to complete a HOF career?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: A good string of .300+ batting averages. It’ll be a challenge, given that he doesn’t hit for much power, but he gets a big head start from his decade behind the plate so at this point he doesn’t need to be a superstar

10:36
Comment From Guest
How do you think the Indians handle the catching situation next year? Is Gomes the everyday starter with Santana as the backup getting 20ish starts behind the plate?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Probably more starts for Santana, but I expect that Gomes will handle the load

10:38
Comment From Justin
I get incredibly depressed this time each year by the lack of baseball news. Can you please make up a few trade rumors so we can spread them irresponsibly across the internet?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Peter Bourjos for Shelby Miller

10:38
Comment From Catoblepas
If McCann does end up with the Yankees, do the Red Sox resign Saltalamacchia or go after someone new? Peripherals make the likelihood of him hitting like this again look low

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: I think they end up going after someone new — I think they say no to the price tag he’s likely to get on the market, without an attached QO

10:41
Comment From Marty
Re: Porcello, when was the last time a team paid a large prospect price for a starter’s ‘potential’?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: No team is going to pay a large prospect price for Rick Porcello

10:41
Comment From JJ
Miller’s batted ball profile doesn’t seem like it would play well in Coors. The Rockies should be more interested in C Martinez.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand, there’s more evidence that Miller will be capable of starting long-term

10:42
Comment From Jerry Dipoto
Porcello for Howie Kendrick?

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Good foundation of a deal

10:42
Comment From person hscer
Crasnick just tweeted to add Seattle to the list of teams interested in Beltran. I think we can pretty safely guess he won’t reciprocate?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: “That’s right, according to sources, Beltran is no longer on the two-year plan he was after the 2011 season, though he remains adamant that he will go to a place where October baseball is most plentiful.”

10:43
Comment From Gila Monster
T/F: If the Marlins really wanted to keep Stanton, they would have already signed him to a long term deal.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Well they recently had an organizational shake-up and they probably needed to give Stanton some time to cool off and get used to the new way of things before really approaching him

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I mean, he didn’t like what happened a year ago. Gotta let that get further in the past

10:45
Comment From pogotheostrich
What do you think the Cardinals could realistically get for Lance Lynn?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: A good young, big-league-ready player, or two fine prospects

10:45
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Will people stop with the Pirates trading the farm for big money player X stuff. A) NH does not trade top prospects (Herrera was maybe 12th ranked at best) B) they cannot afford $15 million a year players even in the short term.

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, NH has never been in this situation before. Who’s to say how he’ll respond? There was never an earlier reason for the Pirates to trade a top prospect, but now they’re thinking more about winning in the immediate.

10:46
Comment From Steve
The ‘Stanton is unavailable’ talk must be a smokescreen, right? I can’t see how he stays there, and he’s been trending down the past two years both in health and in production. Yes, when on the field he’s been elite, just not *as* elite as he was a couple years ago. There’s so much risk in not trading him.

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Seems pretty apparent to me what’s going to happen is the Marlins will try to sign him, Stanton will say no, and then the Marlins will have to decide when to let him go. Might not be for another year.

10:47
Comment From Gila Monster
It appears the Mets aren’t going to do anything once again….It is a shame because the Yankees are awful too.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Mets seem like they’re hot after an outfielder, no?

10:47
Comment From Matt
Is Joe Mauer a top 5 1st basemen next year? How many home runs do you predict he hits in 155 healthy games?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Just about, and 15-20. I think he’ll respond well, offensively, to giving up catching

10:48
Comment From Matt
Is Phil Hughes a decent #3 in Target Field?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I think he could be, but more importantly I think he could just be a decent value somewhere in a rotation, given the season he’s coming off

10:49
Comment From person hscer
Would you rather sign a 2-win SS, 2-win 1B, and 2-win SP, or a 6-win [pick a position] and replacement level players at the other two?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: The latter, because you can upgrade on the replacement-level types during the season

10:49
Comment From person hscer
where does the online HR tracker get its data?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Observation and weather stations

10:50
Comment From Sadwick
I can see Seatlle signing Cruz, seems like their particular flavor of mistake.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: You are a bummer

10:50
Comment From ar
assume trout has the same year in 2014…. could he get 15 mil in year one?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: At least mighty close, given Howard/Lincecum precedents

10:51
Comment From steve
Coud the tigers trade porcello scherzer castellanos plus some for tulo and cargo?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Why would the Rockies do that?

10:51
Comment From Marc
If you are a GM are you more interested in the cost/value of Scherzer, Price, or Shark

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: I prefer Samardzija and Price for having an extra year of control, and Samardzija’s going to cost less in terms of salary

10:52
Comment From Mike
How many times per day do you find yourself checking MLBTR? I am at half a dozen at least.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t count how many times I just click through from the front page of B-R

10:52
Comment From Guest
What do you think of the new rumored Japan posting system rules?

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Good progress, although I want to know how they’re finalized

10:53
Comment From razzmataz
Are sign and trades explicitly verboten under the current CBA? Or are they just effectively unrealistic?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Off the top of my head, I don’t think it’s explicit, but I think it’s understood

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Could be wrong

10:53
Comment From Prich
Are you as down on Franklin’s defense as Dave is?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: I think it is not good

10:53
Comment From Adam
Why is RA9 more valuable than ERA?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Realistically it barely makes any difference, but RA9 strips away random scorer subjectivity and balances out mistreatment of groundballers/flyballers. GB pitchers will be more prone to having errors behind them, and that’s a consequence of their style

10:54
Comment From Guest
Back to an earlier question… if Hitfx is real, do you think agents get access to that information? Seems unfair if they didn’t, I would think?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: They’d have to pay for it, but agents tend not to be that deeply analytical

10:55
Comment From Marty
Have you been watching the AFL? What are your thoughts on how the replay system is working?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: I have not been watching, but from what I’ve read, the replay system is working well and not causing significant delays. It also hasn’t really been “challenged” much since actual close calls are relatively rare

10:55
Comment From Joshua
Given that fun little Lackey quirk, doesn’t he have enormous trade value right now? He’s on a 2/16 contract coming off a tremendous year.

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: He gets a $0.5 million assignment bonus if he’s dealt, but yeah, big value. Negating some of that is that he’s 35 years old

10:56
Comment From Bret
How significant are Porcello’s struggles with men on base, as you mentioned in your post today? Is that something that’s often easy to correct, or even just an anomaly?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: IT could be noise, but it’s probably not. And that would be a task for a new employer’s pitching coach. It would be a mechanical thing, and all pitcher issues tend to be mechanical things. They’re not easy to fix

10:57
Comment From Prich
Ackley and a bullpen arm (Mauer, Capps, Luege) for Porcello: how would you feel about that trade as an Ms fan… as a baseball analyst?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the M’s are in position to be giving up service time for more expensive players like Porcello. Ackley’s a disappointment so far, but Porcello has two years left that won’t be cheap and he’s not a great starter

10:58
Comment From Guest
What will Ervin Santana get this offseason?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say “too much” but I don’t even know what too much is anymore

10:58
Comment From Marc
closer too world series, marlins or blue jays?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Blue Jays by a lot

11:00
Comment From Pedro
Would Carp, Webster, Owens, & Bradley be enough to get Myers from the Rays?

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: nope

11:00
Comment From Justin
Ethier to the Mets seems like a fait accompli at this point.

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: I feel that way about the Mariners so I’ll see you in hell

11:00
Comment From Gila Monster
“Mets GM Sandy Alderson told reporters that the club likely won’t be signing anyone to a $100MM contract”…. So there goes Ellsbury and Choo. And Granderson is “out of their price range according to MLBTradeRumors.

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Actions and words and everything. There’s only so much big-name talent to go around, but let’s re-visit the Mets in February

11:01
Comment From Cal Guy
What will a peak Wil Myers season look like and when might we expect it to happen?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: You could see a .600 SLG. You could see it soon. He might top out around .500 like the popular Jay Bruce comp but Myers’ ceiling is higher than that

11:01
Comment From Jeff
True or false: Teams should pay PED users less because a second failed test costs 100 games, rather than PEDs potentially caused inflated numbers.

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Both are considerations

11:02
Comment From Matt
Chris Young makes a ton of sense in Boston, right? Possibly platoon with JBJ?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Chris Young makes a ton of sense for a lot of teams. Underwhelming player, but versatile and at least average

11:02
Comment From Sadwick
Players have to approve sign and trades, and MLB can veto under a “best interest of baseball” type of clause.

11:03
Comment From Marc
Most likely 2103 playoff team to miss 14 playoffs?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Indians, if they count

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: Otherwise…Pirates?

11:03
Comment From NatsFan
All this trading Span talk is pretty silly, right? What would Nats do in the outfield if it were to happen though?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: The fun rumors are that the Nationals would move Span and go for Ellsbury, I think

11:04
Comment From NatsFan
Would Nats possibly trade for Ackley? Put him in LF?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: They probably want somebody better than that

11:04
Comment From Marc
Do the pirates finish over .500 in 14?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Yes they do!

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: That is my opinion!

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: All right you guys, I gotta go and get to other stuff. Sorry for the extended Kenny Lofton delay there in the first hour. That was a strange experience for all of us.

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you to everyone for hanging out, sorry for everything I didn’t or couldn’t address, and…we WON’T do it again at the same time next week! Or the week after that. I’ll be going on vacation. See you guys in one of these eventually.

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: Be well and have great days.



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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


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