Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/5/13

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: A world champion was decided last week. Now that feels like forever ago!

9:01
Comment From Marty
Where do you see Ellsbury landing? Is Seattle the favorite based on what you’ve heard?

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Let me put it like this:

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Mariners are going to sign Ellsbury, but I think the Mariners are the most likely individual team to sign Ellsbury.

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: Need’s there, money’s there, willingness to overpay is probably there

9:01
Comment From Sadwick
Hiya Jeff.

9:01
Jeff Sullivan: hey hi!

9:02
Comment From David
Thoughts on this “defensive coordinator” position that Matt Williams is bringing to DC?

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: Fascinating. Probably worth a post here. There’s still not ultra-convincing evidence that shifting works the way it’s supposed to, so we need more data, but I didn’t expect Williams to be such a forward-thinking former player. Just based on that alone, the Nats seem like they’re in good hands

9:03
Comment From Mark
Shocked Josh Johnson didn’t get a QO, or do the Jays know more about his health than the rest of us?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Johnson threw half a season and posted an ERA in the 6s. Sabermetrically, it would’ve been justified to give him a QO, but I think it absolutely makes sense to draw the line below $14.1 million. I’d be willing to pay him that much in 2014, but really only if he hit some incentives instead of guaranteeing it up front

9:05
Comment From T. Ferguson
Three best FA fits for a Mariner Makeover? Is Ellsbury one?

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t read this yet, but talk about timing! http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/11/05/daves-2014-off-season-plan/

9:05
Comment From Eminor3rd
Hey Jeff, you were early, and you deserve recognition for that

9:05
Comment From William
How many 1st place votes can Trout manage? We know Posnanski is voting for ALMVP so that’s 1.

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Last year, he got 6/28. This year you could conceivably see a challenger in Josh Donaldson. I’ll call it 4/28

9:07
Comment From Stuart
It’s probably just obsolescence, but why isn’t Bill James’ “Secondary average” used anymore? I always found that useful, and I still use it today.

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: We’ve just moved on to better offensive stats, and at some point you need only so many. But you can keep using it — it’s not going to give you the wrong ideas very often

9:08
Comment From semperty
If you’re St. Louis, who do you go after as a SS (on the open market or by trade), and what are you willing to pay for that individual?

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like it might be time to make something happen with Andrus or Profar

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Drew would be a backup, but there’s so much talent to be traded there in St. Louis

9:09
Comment From Jon Jays Mom
You’ve mentioned that Franklin Gutierrez could be quite a get on the free agent market. Odds the Cardinals take a chance on him?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Slim — they’ve already got something of a complicated outfield, and I think he goes somewhere that could promise a little more playing time

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: But he would be an interesting gamble to take over al ot of time in CF if Taveras isn’t deemed ready and the team wants to explore non-Jay possibilities

9:11
Comment From Marty
If you were a GM, would you hire a manager who has yet to manage a professional team?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: I think so, yeah. And I actually intend to write about this very topic somehow this week. Haven’t started researching yet but this appears to be a trend

9:11
Comment From Malone
Thoughts on Brad Ausmus hire?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: From what I’ve heard, he’s something of a baseball genius, so that’s encouraging

9:11
Comment From Kyle
Reading the opening to Dave’s off-season plan and wondering, when was the last time the Mariners were this sad and uninspiring?

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: 2008 was absolutely dreadful

9:13
Comment From Curtis
Can Ethan Martin start in Philly or is a destined for the pen…

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I think bullpen’s the likelihood, if he has a long-term future in the majors at all

9:13
Comment From person hscer
Can you write about 30 teams for an extended period of time and remain a fan of one team?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I think you can, if that team doesn’t suck

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be different, but the feelings will still be in there to deal with when full-time work time is over

9:14
Comment From semperty
Is Johnson a good Francisco Liriano type project (obviously not same price)?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Seems exactly the type!

9:15
Comment From Curtis
Which is more vital to the success of a club…ability to target draft-day talent and value? or is it more important to have a quality player development system in place? it seems obvious that few teams have both…

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I’m going with player development. I’d rather have decent scouting and awesome development than awesome scouting and decent development, because lots of players can be good if you maximize them

9:16
Comment From Catoblepas
Hi Jeff! I really liked your article on Wainwright shifting his approach to Ortiz, varying his timing and rubber location. Is there something about Ortiz that makes him particularly vulnerable to a surprise approach? And if not, why doesn’t Wainwright do it all the time?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Wainwright says he does it somewhat frequently, although I haven’t checked with regard to the timing variation. I don’t think it was something particular about Ortiz — I think it was Wainwright just trying to do something to slow Ortiz down, and if he did it against all the other Red Sox hitters Ortiz might’ve seen it coming. I think he’s comfortable enough with the variation that he could stand to do it more, but good luck finding anything and proving that it has a big effect

9:19
Comment From Guest
Middlebrooks, Carp, Owens, Webster, Ranuado for Stanton? Is that enough? Would the Sox do it?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Nope, that’s not getting it done

9:19
Comment From Shark Mapiro
I just realized that John Farrell and Mike Matheny will be managing next year’s All Star Game.

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t wait for Matheny’s slow hook in July

9:21
Comment From Andrew
Hey Jeff, what would the best way to convince someone of the importance of sabermetrics?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Good/tough question, but off the top of my head, I’d say Tampa Bay and Oakland

9:21
Comment From Warren
I want the Twins to sign Phil Hughes, who would be their clear number one by a mile. How sad is that? Any chance?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: That’s pretty sad, and yeah, there’s a fine chance. He fits the mold, he should be affordable, and there’s real upside there after he gets out of the NYY park

9:22
Comment From Douglas
The Angels seem to have two capable starting catchers, with Iannetta seemingly the more likely to be dealt. What kind of return could he bring the Angels? A B-prospect? A back-end starter? A high-end reliever?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: Probably a package highlighted by a B-level prospect. Iannetta doesn’t have the strongest defensive rep, nor is he an outstanding hitter so much as he’s a fine hitter

9:23
Comment From MFG
Baseball is officially in the Platoon Age, correct?

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so!

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: Platoon Age implies there are platoons everywhere, which there are not. They’re limited mostly to a handful of teams. If anything we’re in the Middle Reliever Age

9:25
Comment From person hscer
Why are singles worthless in SecA?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: it’s like ISO + walks and net steals

9:25
Comment From Ian
How should someone with Jacoby Ellsbury’s skill set be expected to age?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: Fairly normally, probably a little slower than average. He’s got a lot of skills and athleticism so there’s no one thing on which he entirely depends. I think people tend to exaggerate the significance of profile-specific aging curves

9:27
Comment From Ted
Thoughts on Salty in Boston? I’m thinking they go after AJ Pierzynski as a stop gap until Vazquez and Swihart are ready, am I off base?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I could see them as Texas’ main competitor for Brian McCann

9:27
Comment From Chess
How much money do you see Brian Wilson getting?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Enough to buy an island and disappear forever

9:28
Comment From Matt
Do you think the Twins front office is smart enough to target the kind of pitchers they clearly need? Who could you see them actually signing?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re smart enough to identify decent pitchers who aren’t going to cost everything they have in the bank. So you’re looking at acquisition candidates in the second and third tiers

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Guys like Scott Feldman!

9:29
Comment From Yadier Molina
How many 1st place votes will I get in the MVP?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: One or two

9:29
Comment From A Tribe Called Kipnis
Kendrys Morales has to be the worst qualifying offer, right? He either accepts or Boras leverages the offer to sign a multi-year deal near the same average annual value.

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners want him back for multiple years, so I think the QO was mostly about killing his market. Now they’ll try to get him for like 3/$36 or something

9:30
Comment From Pale Hose
Are personal catchers for a pitcher a sign of wanting the better game caller/framer or of fickleness?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers feel more comfortable working with certain guys, guys with whom pitching is easy, guys with whom they’re always on the same page. There will be a correlation with game-calling and pitch-framing, but it won’t be perfect because it’ll be about feel more than it’ll be about numbers

9:31
Comment From Guest
If the Dodgers somehow land Tanaka and Price, how close would that be to the best rotation ever?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Not entirely convinced it would be better than 2013 Detroit, especially since we don’t know what Tanaka is, but when I saw that rumor I laughed for three minutes

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: So Dodgers

9:33
Comment From Guest
Something that has always confused me about the way people talk about defensive metrics: Lots of FG writers say they don’t understand why people can accept players having down offensive years but not down defensive years. I realize there a TON of factors that could affect defensive performance, but isn’t that a terrible analogy? Hitters can’t adjust to attack defenders in nearly the same way that pitchers and defenses can adjust to hitters. It’s not like scouting reports circulated that said “hey, Trout struggles going back on line drives to his right. Let’s hit more of those.”

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: It’s just that you’re limited by samples that might not be sufficient to reveal true talent. Just a few random defensive mistakes can cost a guy a handful of runs, and they might’ve been due to any number of things. If you think about defensive chances, and then if you think only about defensive chances that are non-routine, you’re left with a fairly little number, and then there’s chaos

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, this year Carlos Gomez robbed, what, five home runs? Those go directly into his DRS even though that’s not going to happen again, and not because Gomez isn’t that talented

9:37
Comment From Alex Kidd
Which players (if any) do you see taking the QO?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Granderson

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Argument for Morales, but I don’t think he will

9:38
Comment From Daniel Carroll
Should the Mariners even bother picking up an FA pitcher, or just throw all of the young arms out there and see what happens?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: They should get a guy, and I think they will

9:38
Comment From Ian
Are there differences in aging curves for guys whose value is more related to their legs (Ellsbury with speed and defense) than guys who are mostly bat?

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: There are differences, but they’re pretty slight and they shouldn’t determine a team’s course of action within free agency. It’s always a case-by-case basis and knowing a player will tell you more than knowing an aging curve

9:40
Comment From Matt
Was it crazy for the Twins not to move on from Gardenhire this year?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Not crazy. Who would be better? Was Gardenhire even the problem? A new manager is so not the Twins’ biggest need

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: or even their tenth-biggest need

9:40
Comment From Will
which employees of fangraphs are currently on the hot seat?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: my seat is warm, from sitting on it

9:41
Comment From Steve 1
Did D.A. change the Fangraphs color scheme to be lighther?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: It was intentional! But I haven’t found out any more about it so I don’t know if it’s permanent

9:42
Comment From Tristan
What was the last prospect you thought was surely a “Can’t Miss” and missed? I was thinking about Ruben Mateo the other day….

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: Ooh, let me get into some archives!

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: All right, unoriginal, but probably Andy Marte

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: For a more current answer, Jesus Montero would be a popular one, although I never considered him can’t-miss. But plenty did and boy does it look like he’s going to miss

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: and then some!

9:44
Comment From Steve 1
I find myself becoming less of a fan of a particular team just by getting older and also more knowledgeable. ‘Fans’ are often just so unreasonable it makes experiencing any kind of fandom kind of painful

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: I remember I used to think the world of die-hard fans. Used to envy their loyalty and commitment. Now I think a lot of them are awful and kind of sad

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: It’s weird to wrap validation up in the accomplishments of strangers. Obviously I still love sports and I still have favorite teams, but I think there are shifts in perspective that come with mental maturity

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: In times of difficulty, sports simultaneously become both more and less important, so maybe you’ll really lean on your favorite team when you’re grieving? Not that I — well this got dark

9:47
Comment From Ed
What would it take for you to give up on the Mariners and start rooting for another team. I am seriously depressed after reading Dave’s summary on USSM today.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Personally I could never root for another team more than the Mariners. They’re just in there and they’re never going away. But my interest in the Mariners has most certainly waned on account of how awful they’ve been, and I don’t watch them very much. I think at this point I’m just less forgiving of bad baseball and I’m less willing to put up with it. I’ve got shit to do, you know?

9:48
Comment From WWMRD
During the season, do you watch Mariners games every day, the most interesting matchup going on that day, or no game at all?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Blend of all three, depending, plus the occasional day spent jumping from one game to the next. Then there’s all the baseball watching I do through MLB.tv archives

9:49
Comment From Marty
Does Stanton start the season with the Marlins?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I still think no, but at some point maybe I should start listening to what the Marlins are actually saying. They claim they’re going to build around him, soooo…

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: My belief is he’ll be the hot topic during the winter meetings. Maybe after he’s rejected whatever contract proposal the Marlins take in his direction

9:51
Comment From Tristan
thoughts on Arenado winning Gold Glove? aside from dismissing the award that is….

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Who was better?

9:51
Comment From Prich
Does STL putting a package together for Andrus just make too much sense for both sides to actually come true? The Cards have $$$ and surplus in Tex areas of need, and the Rangers would be able to dump salary and pick up pieces they need… What’s to miss!?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. They’ve been beating around this bush for what feels like years. It’s time

9:51
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Bucs need a LH 1B compliment to Gaby. Free agent like Loney or Hart or trade?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know which route they’ll go, but they’ll end up with a second- or third-tier 1B. And he’ll be just fine, at what he was brought in to do. It’ll be a quiet acquisition

9:52
Comment From semperty
What about the argument that SABR can’t win championships? Is there a good, clearly SABR team that’s won a title?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: That’s a dumb argument. You can’t really do anything to convince dumb people of something that isn’t dumb.

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: But, if you’re resigned to trying:

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: 1st argument: lay out how the playoffs are a random crapshoot
2nd argument: lay out the saber teams who’ve made the playoffs

presto

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: the 2004 Red Sox started Mark Bellhorn

9:54
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Whoa, Dave’s big move is McCann with the organization tied so heavily to Zunino, odd to say the least.

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Not hard to see Zunino as being a little too much like JP Arencibia. Also not hard to see him as not being quite ready

9:56
Comment From John
Peak/prime Mike Trout or peak/prime Alex Rodriguez? Who’s better?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Well, quickly, by our metrics, A-Rod has never quite had a 10-win season. Trout’s already had two

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: But I think when you examine their actual peaks, in retrospect, they’ll be almost identical. Mike Trout is the peak Alex Rodriguez of outfielders

9:57
Comment From Guest
Why doesn’t fangraphs have a Runs allower- instead of ERA-?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. Feels like it should be there

9:57
Comment From Ben
Should the Angels go after David Price?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: They don’t have the pieces to get him

9:58
Comment From NatsFan
I’ve seen some posts predicting Ellsbury to that Nats. That’s silly, right?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: what the hell?

9:58
Comment From Derek
Kolten Wong +/- 400 PAs in 2014 with Cardinals (or anywhere in MLB for that matter)

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: I think under

9:59
Comment From Derek
Ellsbury decline similar to Damon?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: You mean virtually not at all?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: My guess is that Ellsbury will age fairly gracefully. I think he ends up a 20-homer hitter later in his career

10:00
Comment From TYRUS
WHY IS U A PUNKASS BITCH FOR

10:00
Comment From TYRUS
GTFO WITH THIS SHIT

10:00
Comment From A Lane
Jeff what are your current theories for the relatively decreased run environment, outside the increase in called strike? Feel free to theorize in the absence of data?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: More talented pitchers + more pitcher specialization + more emphasis on defense/run prevention

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: How many times during the playoffs did we hear some player say that even just a few years ago there weren’t this many flamethrowers?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Every team has a bunch of guys throwing 95+ and that has to make some kind of difference

10:02
Comment From Mike
Given the prominence of flamethrowing relievers and managers playing matchups, do you see a suppression of the market for #3-4 SPs in the future?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Nah, they’re still too important over the course of a full season

10:02
Comment From MFG
In your estimation, what is % chance David Price is on TB’s opening day roster?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: 5

10:03
Comment From Guest
Hey Jeff, I watched the Senators-Blackhawks game the other day and I have to say that Erik Karlsson is the Miguel Cabrera of hockey. Unbelievable talent offensively but just doesn’t have any interest in defending.

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Other sports fans need to think in a WAR kind of framework. Stop focusing just on offense or defense or whatever! Put it all together! It all counts! And yes you are more or less correct

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: thankfully Miguel Cabrera is amazing

10:04
Comment From Pedro
You say Middlebrooks, Carp, Owens, Webster, & Ranaudo won’t get it done for Stanton. What if they added Bradley Jr. to that mix?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Then you have a conversation

10:05
Comment From person hscer
How quickly we forget Halladay Lee Hamels Oswalt

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Haven’t seen rotations like 2013 Detroit or 2011 Philadelphia in a decade or so

10:06
Comment From dan
What do you see as the floor of what Ellsbury signs for and what do you think he will sign for?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: As a “floor”, maybe 6/$100. I think he signs for more like 6/$120

10:06
Comment From Brian
Do you think Garza to the Nats could actually happen? Do they need another arm of the caliber and risk?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, it could happen to round out the starting rotation, and it’s not like there’s much in the way of organizational SP depth. Don’t think it would be the smartest move in the world, but the Nationals want to win soon and Garza would make them wins better

10:07
Comment From Daniel Nava
What are the odds of me playing first base for the Sox next year?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: almost zero

10:07
Comment From Ted
Do you think the announcement by the Marlins that they will not move Stanton is just posturing? Do you think it would be wise for them to hold onto him? Nobody expects them to pay up when he is a FA.

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: They should’ve moved him a year ago. They should move him now. I think they might not understand just how unwilling he probably is to sign a contract extension to stick around. I’m sure the Marlins would like to build a winner around Stanton, but they’re not going to win before he’s at FA age so now is the time to cash him in. I think they’ll come to that realization shortly

10:09
Comment From Cheebs
Do you ever search “Ichiro” on baseball reference? If so, how much does that Fat Ichiro nickname annoy you? Just take me to Ichiro’s page!

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: favorite nickname in baseball!

10:09
Comment From Scout Finch
Could you see the Giants punting their draft pick to sign Ubaldo Jimenez?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I think the greater likelihood is Bronson Arroyo

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Get excited for Bronson Arroyo!!

10:11
Comment From Ray
Martin Perez, Andrus and Leonys Martin for Stanton a fair deal?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: On talent it’s not lopsided, but the Marlins would probably want greater assurances that they’re getting back somebody really good, instead of somebody all right and potentially really good

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Andrus isn’t hitting, Martin hasn’t hit much, Perez is more of a mid-rotation sort than an ace, as young as he is

10:11
Comment From Po Boy
The recent mews about the Dolphins intra-team business involving Incognito and Martin is really sickening. Do you know if that kind of thing goes on in the MLB or are guys not quite as insanely aggressive?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure there’s some relatively ugly stuff around MLB, but I don’t think it’s anywhere close to the Dolphins environment. Baseball players aren’t football players, as simplistic as that sounds. As a pro baseball player you have little choice but to deal with clubhouse diversity

10:13
Comment From Catoblepas
Do you think Drew takes the QO? It seems like he should, but the market for shortstops is really terrible… On the other hand, I can also imagine his ws woes coloring perceptions of him

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: I think he gets out and signs himself a three- or four-year contract. Door’s open a little for him to return, but he’ll be offered greater security elsewhere

10:15
Comment From Scott Boras
Jeff Sullivan is not fielding any more Jacoby Ellsbury questions at this time.

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: bullshit

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: HIT ME

10:15
Comment From Aaron
Carlos Triunfel?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: not good

10:15
Comment From Sadwick
I whiffed pretty big with Andy Marte myself, I also bought into the Francoeur hype his first season, but I was living just south of Atlanta so there was a lot of hype to be had.

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny — from surprising busts, you always want to try to learn a lesson. “What did I miss about this player?” For a while, maybe you can find signs in hindsight. But eventually you just come to the conclusion that players of all types can bust and there’s nothing you can do about it and there’s nothing you can do to see it coming most of the time

10:16
Comment From Ed
Wouldn’t it be fun to actually root for a good team, just for once? I remember when baseball used to be fun!

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: I had fun bandwagoning during this year’s playoffs. Baseball is awesome when your team doesn’t suck.

10:18
Comment From George Costanza
What do you think of one team signing bunches of QO guys to exploit the fact that the picks they lose each time decrease in value? They could then turn around and trade these guys immediately. Seems like the Sox are excellently positioned for this due to the fact that they’d be unable to lose the compensation picks they’re due anyway, and have the funds and roster flexibility to take on and mitigate the risk of a ludicrous payroll.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t just trade guys immediately in MLB, is my understanding

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Last offseason the Indians lost a pick to sign Bourn and they lost another pick to sign Swisher, and their first-round pick was protected. There is some advantage to signing more than one QO player, but it’s relatively small, and at the end of the day you’re still paying FA prices and you’re still having to have that FA pick your team over the rest

10:21
Comment From DNA
The Marlins are going to build around Stanton, sure, but build what exactly? Maybe they’ll build another home run feature since he’s the only player they have likely to hit them? A cage with a curtain around it so they can sell tickets to see him hit? The possibilities are endless!

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: There’s plenty of young talent in that organization so they’re not too terribly far off. But they’re not going to be good before Stanton is super expensive

10:22
Comment From Vista Prospect Vantage
What do you think of Lookout Landing’s offseason plan? Do the constraints of good manners make it impossible to comment?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Nothing about manners, just didn’t see it

10:22
Comment From DEREK
SHOULD THE RED SOX REALLY GO HARD AFTER MCANN IS HE REALLY THAT BIG OF A IMPROVEMENT OVER SALTY SHORT AND LONG TERM

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: How could I not accept this question from the queue!

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: HE’S A VERY GOOD PLAYER AND HE’S TREMENDOUSLY CAPABLE AS A DEFENSIVE CATCHER AND SO HE’D BE A QUALITY INVESTMENT WHO COULD DH AND PLAY FIRST BASE DOWN THE ROAD

10:23
Comment From Guest
Mariners are as tied to Zunino as they “were” Montero no?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: They’ve reallllllly tried hard to sell Zunino as the future, but yeah, ultimately, a player’s a player and fans just want a team to win

10:24
Comment From TKDC
Errors aren’t a very good measure of defense, but doesn’t variation in errors help make the argument for other variations in defense?

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Most certainly

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Of course, as I try to look up some telling examples, I’m finding annoyingly little error variation…

10:26
Comment From Guest
More likely, Harper 50 HR season or Trout 40 HR season?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Trout

10:26
Comment From semperty
Do the Dodgers have the pieces to get Price?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Sure do

10:26
Comment From Dave from Pittsburgh
Fans of large market teams are hilarious, they always think they can just “get” players

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Turns out there are a lot of teams vying for the same players and we can’t just cut them in half

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: unless…

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: …we can…

10:26
Comment From Vista Prospect Vantage
Felix’s house is on fire! Should we all run over there with buckets?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: And now we all know where Felix Hernandez lives

10:27
Comment From Bret
I actually saw an interesting Ellsbury/Nats idea, that saw him land there, allowing the Nationals to deal Span and Espinosa for Brandon Phillips.

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: But Phillips is so expensive, and worse than Span is

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Not that I couldn’t see it, but I could see more likely courses of action

10:29
Comment From Catoblepas
Are there actually more flamethrowers, or is the way teams use pitchers changing and that’s leading to the same pitchers throwing harder?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Both, but mostly A. I think a lot of pitchers just have stronger arms now

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how that’s happened. It’s amazing though

10:30
Comment From DNA
you must love %-chance questions because there’s no way you can be proven wrong!

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: ssshhhh

10:32
Comment From semperty
What do you think it’d cost St. Louis to grab Andrus?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: NOTE: I am not good at this

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: but in the interest of trying:

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Miller/Adams?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: Is that crazy? I can’t tell. I’m so bad at hypothetical trades :(

10:33
Comment From Roman
How much worse will the Reds be in 2014, assuming Choo is gone?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: It’ll be a struggle to qualify for one of the wild cards

10:34
Comment From Roman
Will you mail me some Pyramid Brews?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t you want something better?

10:35
Comment From Harlan, Ralph, and Larry
Hey, Jeff. Can you think of the last time a World Series team meaningfully upgraded itself while simultaneously cutting payroll by $10-15M? St. Louis can do so merely by getting E. Aybar or A. Ramirez to replace Kozma, and supplanting Jon Jay with Oscar Taveras, right?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Not thinking of many non-Marlins examples at all of WS teams who subsequently trimmed payroll

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: But yeah, the Cardinals have it “easy” in that it’s pretty apparent where they need to get better

10:36
Comment From Jay
Think Oscar T gets 400 abs in St. Louis next year? If so, as their CF?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Yes, and mostly but not all the time

10:37
Comment From BeBoopBeep
What’s the market for Dusty Baker this offseason?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Non-existent

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: pretty amazing actually. hasn’t even been talked about as a candidate for any opening

10:37
Comment From Billy
Why don’t more AL teams use 13 pitchers? The added benefit of being able to replace a 4/5 starter earlier in the game would seem greater than having a 5th outfielder or 5th infielder.

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: There’s already a ton of pitching-staff flexibility, and you can keep valuable and versatile position players on the bench. If you think you want another fresh pitcher you can just recall one from Triple-A

10:38
Comment From semperty
Does it take one of Taveras/Miller/Wacha to grab Andrus, or are they all too much?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Taveras is probably much, but I’m more willing to let go of a young pitcher

10:38
Comment From Meano Eno
Bronson Arroyo = Barry Zito?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Hard not to immediately draw that parallel

10:39
Comment From Harlan, Ralph, and Larry
As a Cardinal fan(s), I do NOT want either of the Texas guys at shortstop. Profar is someday gonna be real good, but just too unproven (both lumber & leather) for a contender to simply plug in at age 21. And Elvis is a massive decade-long commitment. Gimme three years of nice, boring, hyperdurable 3-WAR Alexei Ramirez, please.

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Perfectly reasonable!

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Ramirez won’t be a franchise SS, but the Cardinals don’t need a franchise SS. They just need a SS

10:39
Comment From Prich
Are you going to do a “Jeff’s Offseason Plan” for USSM? Or has Dave copyrighted that with the threat of a lawsuit on said plans?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: That’s Dave’s thing. I’m not good at roster figure-outing or designing trades out of thin air

10:40
Comment From Vista Prospect Vantage
Do the Ellsbury to the Rangers rumors seem a tad strange given that they have Martin and Gentry? Their real problem is the corners.

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Problem isn’t the corners. Problem is the outfield. Forget about the positions. Help is help and can you imagine the defense?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: But that said, Texas isn’t going to sign him, almost certainly. They need a big-money catcher

10:41
Comment From Harlan, Ralph, and Larry
Re: Kolten Wong, Mozeliak just yesterday strongly implied he’ll be a starter from the 2014 get-go. Something like, “If I were betting, I’d bet he gets a lot of playing time.” Cards won’t give a hobbled, .125 ISO version of David Freese $5M+ in arbitration. Wong at 2nd, Carpenter slides across to 3rd.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: There’s a better answer to the guy above than I was able to provide.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: “Mozeliak said rookie Kolten Wong, a first-round pick in 2011, could be the everyday second baseman. Leadoff man Matt Carpenter would move to third, displacing David Freese.

“If I had a bet, I would say he’s probably going to get a lot of playing time for us,” Mozeliak said.”

10:44
Comment From Bkgeneral
Here is the downside to routing for a good team. Expectations. I am Reds fan, 2010 was great. Did same thing in 2012 and 2013 and it felt like a disappointment. Why? Expectations!

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I’d just like to know even what it feels like to simply be let down

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: At least your team makes you feel *something*

10:45
Comment From person hscer
Briefly before I read it, what is the changing reality of the lefty strike?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: there are fewer of them now

10:45
Comment From Guest
What are the chances the Sox pick up Stanton and don’t have to give up Bogaerts?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: Far from 0%!

10:45
Comment From Petey
Should Cinci 1) trade Chapman, 2) stretch him out, or 3) keep at closer?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: One more try at #2, then #3

10:45
Comment From Justin
Any guesses on what the Dodgers end up doing at 2B? Just assuming Guerrero is ready to start seems crazy to me.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: They might try to give Guerrero some ST competition, but if they do anything else at 2B it’s probably just something small and short-term so that Guerrero can take the reins

10:47
Comment From Jack Z
What really happened between you and Lookout Landing?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: exactly what I wrote! why can’t people understand this!

10:47
Comment From Sadwick
Jeff, you can’t keep answering questions like the one DEREK submitted. If I laugh aloud randomly too much people think I’m insane.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: I DON’T KNOW WHY WE DON’T DO MORE QUESTIONS IN ALL CAPS

10:48
Comment From Catoblepas
when do Steamer projections come out? The QUESTION about Salty/McCann has me thinking that the former never has a year like this again, and I was curious to see what Steamer thought.

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: !!!

10:48
Comment From Meano Eno
Would being “too lefthanded” in a rotation be a concern? For example Kershaw/Price/Ryu etc?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t imagine they’d be concerned. What does it matter, so long as the pitchers are good? All those pitchers are good.

10:49
Comment From Justin
I feel like Ellsbury goes to the Angels. I don’t know why. Just seems like the kind of signing they’d make.

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: They’re already bitching about how they don’t have the money to sign Trout to a long-term contract

10:49
Comment From Cole
What %-chance is there that you will wrap up this chat now?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Getting way up there!

10:50
Comment From TKDC
Omar Vizquel went 9-20-10-5-15-3 in errors during six pretty much full seasons during his prime.

10:50
Comment From Scout Finch
Chances Boston would be interested in trading for “Fat Ichiro”?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Low

10:50
Comment From The Oberamtmann
A-rod over Trout. Shortstop!

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Center field!

10:50
Comment From The Oberamtmann
What’s the point of the QO-offer, can’t trade rule?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: So teams don’t just bypass the consequences of the QO

10:50
Comment From Guest
Which teams did you bandwagon this postseason?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: A’s, Rays, Pirates. you know, the usual

10:51
Comment From Tom
Is it just me, or is Andrus’ contract an albatross waiting to happen? He’s a guy set to make $15M per year for the rest of eternity practically, but he derives most of his value from his glove, which is a young man’s skillset.

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: He’s newly 25, he’s been worth 11 wins over the past three years, and his contract maxes out at $15 million in a season, which just won’t look like that much a little down the road. Already it doesn’t look like that much. It’s a fine extension for a somewhat disappointing player

10:52
Comment From Matthew Berry
Miller/Adams for Andrus is whoa crazy crazy. No one even claimed him on waivers this past summer. I’d think Adams/Kelly should be enough to get it done.

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Boy could Andrus use even just one season with an ISO north of .100

10:53
Comment From Justin
If you were a GM, which big-ticket free agent would you LEAST like to sign this offseason?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Probably Nelson Cruz

10:53
Comment From Catoblepas
No real difference between outfielders now, right? Victorino shows that CF playing right is a very reasonable and good thing

10:53
Comment From Shark Mapiro
If the Indians move Santana to full time 1B/DH, how much of an impact do you think it could have on his offense?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Guess: maybe +5%?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: there’s the DH penalty to consider

10:54
Comment From Evan
Any chance at all STL looks at signing Ellsbury?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Extremely low

10:54
Comment From Sox fan
What say thee: Middlebrooks/Peavy for Iwakuma?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Why would Seattle want Middlebrooks?

10:55
Comment From Evan
From 12-13 Jon Jay’s BABIP dropped 30 points, but his LD% went up 5. That sounds like a lot of bad luck to me. Could 14 be a rebound season for him offensively?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: He could probably slug .400 again. The more I look at it, the more I think I might’ve been exaggerating the Cardinals’ problems in CF due to how Jay looked in October

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: He’s not great but he’s fine as what he is. He’s no Kozma

10:57
Comment From Mark
Will you mail me something better than Pyramid brews?

10:57
Comment From Tom
$15M isn’t a bad number for Andrus right now, certainly, but am I out of line in thinking that that number is likely going to be very bad as soon as 3 or 4 years from now? >5 year contracts almost never work out.

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Andrus might not get better, but $15 million will also buy less and less as more and more time passes. I don’t think he’s going to end up a payroll disaster

10:58
Comment From Freest Rolexes
Wait, are you offering to ship loyal fans cascade beers!?!

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Chat’s over! Gotta wrap up!

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Been two hours, and I’ve got other stuff to do. Thanks you guys for hanging out and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next Tuesday at the same time, and until then, be wonderful and have great days




Print This Post



Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current day month ye@r *