Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/10/13

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Hey everybody! It’s the winter meetings!

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: So let’s talk about the meetings and all the attendant rumors and whatnot.

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Not real interested in the HoF voting yesterday. Worked out reasonably. Miller should be in. Didn’t want to go in after his death. Okay. Let’s just go ahead and not chat about that

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hottest topics at the moment are a Trumbo three-team trade and I guess Rajai Davis going to Detroit

9:06
Comment From SMC
Danny Espinosa to NYY makes too much sense to not happen.

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: I like the rumor about the Nationals balking at the idea of trading Espinosa away. No they aren’t. Cute try though. More than happy to move him.

9:07
Comment From William
What do the Yankees do for second base? What should they do?

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Espinosa would be interesting, Infante would be fine and fairly obvious. Still thinking Infante, myself

9:07
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Is LoMo a smart buy low? Seems like he may not be better than a league average bat, but still just 26.

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s interesting that the teams most interested in him are the Rays and Pirates, since, you know. And he does have a good high-minors track record. But his big-league track record is not good, it’s pretty big, and he’s not that young anymore. I think he’s all right if he comes fairly cheap but I’m doubting his upside

9:08
Comment From MonkeyEpoxy
When did you guys add 5 year oliver projections? And good lord Yu Darvish projected to 29.1 wins over the next 5 years.

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I think it was last week? Some of them are nutty, some of them are of interest

9:10
Comment From Sammy Sooser
Are you analyzing all Winter meetings? Is Cistulli aware?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Way too much. I’m not even there in person. Don’t see the point

9:10
Comment From Cochise
Why aren’t the Mariners in on Trumbo?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: For all I know they are, quietly, but I hope that they’re not specifically because he’s not that good

9:10
Comment From mike
Expecting any surprises over the next few days?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: I expect that there will be surprises, but I do not expect specific surprises, because by definition those would not be surprises

9:10
Comment From Jim
I almost wish that story about the Mariners were true just because of how well it would sum up the organization. Probably for the best that it’s not though.

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Additionally, to be honest, I bet that sort of thing happens not infrequently. Maybe not exactly as laid out, but teams do bid against themselves. Evan Grant did a bad job of phrasing

9:11
Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy
rumors, whatnot….is Ubaldo this offseason’s Kyle Lohse?

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Nah, I think he has too much upside

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: In a sane world Nelson Cruz could be this year’s Kyle Lohse, but he’s getting lots of bites it seems

9:12
Comment From mike
If I’m the Yankees why would I want to get rid of Brett Gardner? He’s pretty good. What about Ichiro or Soriano or Wells?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Already 30, one year left of team control, most desirable of all those guys in a deal. But I don’t much like the idea of moving him, because I don’t like losing good contributors to intended contenders

9:13
Comment From Guest
Does Sale or Masterson make more sense for the M’s?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Sale but he’s not available

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: I can already sense this chat is going to be dominated by Mariners questions, and for once they’re actually really interesting

9:13
Comment From Michael
Eaton and Skaggs must be horrible to be traded for Trumbo? Bauer trade at first looked bad too though

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: Or it could just be a bad trade for Arizona

9:14
Comment From Oren
Is Doc a Hall of Famer?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: I think so, but if I have any strong opinions in my bones, basically none of them have to do with the baseball Hall of Fame

9:15
Comment From Joe Carter
Any action to be expected from the Blue Jays this week?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t seem like there’s a whole lot to do that’s been talked about, outside of minor moves. A Jose Bautista trade would qualify as a potential major surprise

9:16
Comment From Jim
Rajai Davis going to Detroit

9:16
Jeff Sullivan: combined 1 WAR over the last three years!

9:16
Comment From Bret
Let’s say there was a three way trade where the D’Backs got Mark Trumbo, Angels got Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago, and the White Sox got Adam Eaton. Who would be the hypothetical winners and losers in said deal?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: That would be super if the White Sox could turn Santiago into Eaton

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: The Angels would win, too, and the Diamondbacks would lose, although I will point out that while we’re all noting Trumbo’s various flaws, he is fine and cost-controlled for a while so there’s still real surplus value

9:18
Comment From Carl
Mariners pull Tanaka and Price (without Walker involved) and sign Choo and Morales…young guys perform closer to expectation…..still 3rd place in West?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Congratulations, you have yourself a team that can contend for the AL West. Now try to actually pull that off

9:20
Comment From Prich
If you are Jack Z, are there any players in baseball you are willing to part with Walker for, beyond Trout/McCutcheon/Stanton/Profar?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Good young players with at least 3 years left or so

9:20
Comment From David G
Do you think the Cardinals shop some of their excess pitching/outfield depth at the Winter Meetings? What could they be looking for if so?

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly it sure seems like the Cardinals are pretty set for now and for the long haul. They could get David Price if they really wanted to, but I think they’re probably too smart for that.

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: They of course have the resources to make a big giant splash out of nowhere but I don’t think they are actually going to go that course

9:24
Comment From Ted
Stephen Drew – where to? Can’t be Boston, can it?

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: Sure can. Teams without shortstops right now are for the most part pretty bad teams. And the Indians have put Asdrubal Cabrera on the market, making things more challenging for Drew still. I think Boston has an excellent shot

9:25
Comment From Josh
How much are you willing to forgive Jack Z for if he gets Cliff Lee from the Phillies again?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: for $62.5 million over two years?

9:26
Jeff Sullivan: From a team that won’t kick in any money?

9:27
Comment From McExpos
No volcano selfies in your Wired piece which you should now plug?

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t like to put pictures of myself on the internet

9:27
Comment From Fish
If I wanted to find something like Rajai Davis’s numbers in games started by a lefty, is that at all easy? Or am I going to have to look up starters and look at game logs and whatnot?

9:28
Comment From SMRT
Kevin Towers?! Is it just recency bias or (if this Trumbo move happens) is this an unprecedented run of smrt moves?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Especially unprecedented in that this would probably not be a real smart move

9:28
Comment From Ryan
So, a Dirks/Davis platoon is, what? Vaguely above average? Roughly?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: sure, that neighborhood

9:28
Comment From Sammy Sooser
Matt Kemp came back from his injuries at less than 100% every single time, and it was rather apparent. Greinke came back from the collarbone injury early as well… is anyone talking about the Dodger medical staff when discussing the trades?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: No, probably not

9:30
Comment From Prich
If you are Jack Z, how much of Kemp’s salary does LA have to take on for you to include Franklin in the deal?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: So do I get to think like me or do I have to think like Jack Z since in this hypothetical I’m him?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: If it’s me me, I’m reluctant to give up much value for Kemp at all. If the Dodgers ate some millions, I’d kick in a mediocre prospect or two. To get Franklin, it would cost several tens of millions. I think it would be too much of a buy-low for the sides to match up

9:32
Comment From Guest
Any sense of what Davis signed for? He seems like a pretty solid platoon bat.

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: I think I saw two years, $10mish

9:32
Comment From Michael
Could the D-Backs add both Trumbo and Choo?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Could in theory, can’t in reality

9:32
Comment From APODionysus
Since this is your first chat since, I wanted to say in so sorry Jeff. I didn’t realize just how crazy things were in Ms FO

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Well, I did, so no need to apologize

9:32
Comment From @NamelessRanger
I’ve heard that three teams are trying to land Juan Uribe (LAD, MIA, CWS). Is the fact that there’s a mini bidding war for Sad Juan Uribe as absurd as I think it is?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: coming off a five-win season!

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: also the 3B market sucks

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: and the Marlins and White Sox suck

9:33
Comment From LarryA
If Beltran has 3 All-star level seasons including more postseason success in NYY and retires. What hat does he wear into the HOF?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: This isn’t the question I thought it would be when I accepted it

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: The hell with it. Royals! Yeah!

9:34
Comment From Guest
What about Mark Ellis at 2B for the Yankees?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: probably on their list, probably not high on it

9:34
Comment From Sammy Sooser
Are people floating the negotiation window as a necessity in the David Price trade talks?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: Not to my knowledge

9:34
Comment From Guest
Is there a way of calculating xBB% or xSO%?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: There are a bunch of ways, each of them flawed

9:35
Comment From Guest
How similar are Lomo and Smoak?

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Competing brands of the same thing, but I think in the end Morrison will look like the better hitter and Smoak the better defender

9:36
Comment From Thad
What would you pay Bartolo Colon for a one year deal?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: low eight figures

9:36
Comment From Steve
Where do you think Nick Franklin will end up?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: I was absolutely convinced it would be Kansas City before the Royals apparently took Butler off the market. That could still be re-visited. I think, reasonably, Franklin could be the main piece in a David Price trade, but the Rays would have to agree with that and that could take a long time to determine

9:37
Comment From LarryA
Whats your home coffee set-up?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Espresso machine and working on it. Within the next few months, burr grinder and pour-over

9:37
Comment From mike
Are you at the winter meetings Jeff?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t want to be, and it also helps the company to have someone out west in the event of late-night blockbuster news

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I mean I enjoy hanging out with everyone and it’s an unforgettable experience but god damn can it be hard to get work done

9:38
Comment From Guest
How can the Dbacks even appear to be in on Choo. They are about $10mm away from the “max budget” and they still need starting pitching. Are they fooling anyone?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Clearly, they’re fooling lots of writers

9:39
Jeff Sullivan: Teams can always move money around

9:40
Comment From JTT
Magglio ordonez was just elected mayor of Sotillo Venezuela as a member of the socialist party. Discuss?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: isn’t Raul Mondesi mayor somewhere?

9:42
Comment From Shark Mapiro
Do you see a corresponding move coming now that the Indians have Santana, Swish, Cooper and Giambi as 1B/DH types? Are they that confident Santana can man 3B?

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: nobody’s planning anything major around Cooper or Giambi and Santana is just going to be a little experiment. sorry to be boring :(

9:42
Comment From Gabe
Mets asked Orioles for Bundy in exchange for Murphy? I would erect a shrine to Sandy Alderson in my apartment if he got that done.

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: which he didn’t

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: lots of teams ask for lots of stuff in trades that don’t get completed

9:43
Comment From Chicago Mark
LoMo did hit 20 homers in cavernous Miami. If he goes to Pitt or now Balt is in discussions he hits a little better just on ball park changes. Agree?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: He could hit better in other environments, but then that’s why there are park factors. Wouldn’t actually make him better

9:43
Comment From Marcus
The Mariners are going to do something silly like give up Walker, Franklin and more for David Price, aren’t they?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I actually don’t think so. Although boy have they proven me wrong

9:44
Comment From Rob
Where are these 5 year projections? What does Trout’s look like?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: player pages

9:44
Comment From DaveP
Long time fangraphs’er, first time fangraphs chat-er. Are the phillies nuts to be shopping their ace pitchers with their black hole of an offense?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Well, they suck, so it’s probably not the worst idea to try to cash in for longer-term value

9:45
Comment From Joe Bob
Matt Kemp to Boston? Seattle? Detroit? or staying in LA?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Ultimately I actually think he stays, but that’s betting on rationality and I don’t know who might end up desperate

9:46
Comment From Chicago Mark
Why are the Cubs talking trade with the Nats when they can just sign Axford?

9:46
Comment From Trey
It’s been my impression that some people consider Chris Sale an injury risk because of his slight frame and “different” motion. The MASH report predicts that he is the 7th least likely SP to get injured. Without knowing the “right” or “best” body size/type is it possible to use height and weight to help predict injuries?

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly not, within reasonable margins

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: There are going to be some injury breakthroughs in the coming years. We’re not going to develop them on the outside, nor will we have enough information. Every single pitcher has different limits and those limits are hidden within the body. We can’t get in there

9:47
Comment From MonkeyEpoxy
Evan Grant was making a joke. I’m honestly surprised it got the legs it did.

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: It was very poorly written

9:47
Comment From Right-handed
Not a lot of buzz about Guti and I’m a little surprised someone hasn’t swooped in and gobbled him up on the cheap. Even if he’s only a 4th outfielder, he will always have the potential to be more than that until his leg snaps off.

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe teams want to see what he does in winter ball in Venezuela

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: and I haven’t seen his medicals and teams might be rightly scared off by a guy with supposedly an incurable illness

9:49
Comment From Bret
Masahiro Tanaka is under contract for two more years in Japan. If his team posts him this year, they get $20M. If they post him next year, they get $20M and one more year of Tanaka. The risk is a major injury or performance issue. The personal factor is that he may want to go to the US now. Should they post him?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: Even if he struggles or has a major injury he’s almost certainly still going to draw $20 million a year from now

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: From a business perspective, they should probably just hang on to him. But if he really, badly wants to go to MLB, I think that matters quite a bit

9:50
Comment From Marechal
I liked your post yesterday about Kuroda, and your point that challenges the conventional wisdom that the Yankees rotation is a major problem. Their lineup, relative to the league, is much worse.

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: I will say they have a problem of rotation depth — not the biggest believer ever in Warren/Nuno — but Pineda is a fascinating wild card

9:51
Comment From Pedantic A**hole
Kemp to the Rangers?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Not seeing it. Cruz more likely

9:52
Comment From Doug
Why would the Indians trade Masterson?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: one year left. might as well see what’s out there

9:52
Comment From Anton
What was the point of trading Jim Johnson, if the Orioles might sign Grant Balfour?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Balfour could save a few million and bring an extra year of team control or whatever

9:53
Comment From Next Mariners Flyball Starting Pitcher
So what is your prediction for the Mariners outfield in 2014?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Gun to my head? Choo/Ackley/Saunders with Almonte fourth, but Cruz is still way up there too

9:53
Comment From Adam
When you appear on MLB Network, do they provide a dress shirt / necktie / drab cityscape background style guide? Or is that all you?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: The cityscape is the product of the local studio wherever filming is done, and when I did it I was allowed to dress myself. But I understand they gave some clothes to Dave Cameron

9:54
Comment From Chris_FB
What could the Angels possibly do to excite their fanbase this offseason? They paid for the best hitter and best pitcher available 2 years ago – fell flat. Got premium hitter last season – fell flat. Why believe anything they do this offseason increases their chances of finishing better than 3rd again, short of poisoning all the BBQ in Arlington and seeding the O.Co with landmines?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Pujols ought to be healthier and Mike Trout is still around. Currently the Angels rank right with the Rangers and A’s in terms of projected WAR http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Not saying, of course, I think they’re that good, but they’re not far off at all in the short-term, even given what’s happened. They’re a contender, with needs

9:57
Comment From josh
When I read Jeff Sullivan’s comments, I hear Casey Stern’s voice. Why is that?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: maybe you’ve recently heard Casey Stern

9:57
Comment From MkeMan
Best guess for years/$ a Corey Hart contract?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Hmm. $14m/2?

9:57
Comment From Right-handed
Do you think the White Sox are motivated to deal Quintana for a surplus 2B (Franklin)?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Motivated? No

9:58
Comment From Michael
Should the White Sox trade Sale?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Not for what teams would offer

9:58
Comment From Noel
Have you written off Jesus Montero or do you think he could pull a Justin Smoak and contribute some value, even if it’s half a win?

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t written him off but I’m not counting on him for anything going forward. And Smoak isn’t good either

9:59
Comment From Drew
Even with the Davis signing, the Tigers seem worse in hitting and pitching, but better in defense and baserunning compared to last year. Is it enough to get them to the WS? That offense just seems much worse than last year.

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Second in baseball in projected WAR, between the Red Sox and Cardinals

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Position-player situation could be improved, but the pitching’s still insane

10:01
Comment From Mark
More amusing idea: Giancarlo Stanton or Joe Blanton playing for the Colorado Rockies?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: Amusing: Blanton. Awe-inspiring: Stanton

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: was the rhyming scheme intentional?

10:01
Comment From A. Lane
Has the free agent market become relatively depleted compared to 10 years ago due players signing extensions? I have seen some suggest this but no one has provided more than anecdotes, and cursory numbers,and hinted that lack of PEDs has hindered value of 30yo plus player.

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if anyone’s done the work, but it certainly seems a lot lighter than it used to be. Some of that could be just improvements in evaluation and understanding that free agency isn’t a great place to buy

10:02
Comment From Shawn
What do you see as a stat line for Cano this year?

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: Not going to deviate from Steamer on this

10:03
Comment From Guest
Does Skaggs concern you, I remember Eno referring to his skillset as present day Barry Zito and that scared me. Is he just being b-a-d?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Skaggs can still miss some bats. I like him as a target so long as you’re surrendering someone like Trumbo

10:04
Comment From Guest
What did you major in?

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: Chemistry

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: not the baseball kind

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: although it turns out that would be more useful

10:05
Comment From Chris_FB
Cliff Lee is apparently on the market. *drool* Recent reports say he’s likely calling it a career when his current contract is up. Think he goes to NYY / BOS / LAD to try to get a ring?

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers would be really interesting if they give up on trying to trade for David Price. One of the few teams willing to afford that sort of lofty salary

10:06
Comment From Guest
Choo would have been a better fit for Yankees than Ellsbury, even for same price. Better hitting skills, and still a very good RF. Would you agree?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: No, because Ellsbury’s better

10:06
Comment From Ember
If Tanaka’s ultimately able to negotiate with several teams, what do you think his contract ends up looking like?

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Rangers got Darvish at a total investment of about $110 million over six years. There’s been some market inflation, but Tanaka is also supposedly not quite of Darvish’s caliber. I think something on the order of $100 million/six years, plus $20 million posting fee

10:07
Comment From Guest
what other responsibilities do you have at fangraphs aside from chats, the community blog and articles?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: depth charts (AL West) and contributing to bigger FG projects

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: and USS Mariner is fractionally an FG responsibility

10:08
Comment From Brian
I haven’t heard much chatter about it, and am worried: just how untouchable is Brad Miller?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Can’t see him moving. No other shortstops

10:08
Comment From Steve
Please god let AZ make this trade! It would be the first happiness ive experienced as an angels fan this fall

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I’m looking forward to reading whatever Dave just wrote about Trumbo on the front page

10:10
Comment From James
What could NYY reasonably get in return for Gardner?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: half-decent SP

10:10
Comment From Chris_FB
Since it isn’t self-promotion if someone else says it, here’s the volcano post on Wired: http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/12/the-volcanoes-of-guatemala-a-guest-post-from-jeff-sullivan/

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: whoopsadoodle, yeah, yay volcanoes!

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: and here’s a video of a new volcano! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GXcu6SORnmA&feature=youtu.be

10:10
Comment From Guest
Matt Kemps defense in a corner outfield spot…reasonable? average a bit better. i don;t know the defensive spectrum well enough.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Reasonable for the next little while, provided he returns pretty healthy from all of his lower-body problems

10:11
Comment From Pedantic A**hole
Guti got sick down in Winter Ball. Least surprising news ever.

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: of course that could’ve just been a cold

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: and lots of people get sick in Venezuela :(

10:11
Comment From ben c
waht is a realistic return for mike carp and/or ryan dempster?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: this chat comment

10:11
Comment From grunts
what does getting stephen drew mean for xander/will MB? and how often do each of them play?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Reduced playing time. All would play pretty often

10:12
Comment From Nick
Would you have any interest in pursuing a front office job?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Not anymore, but I did five years ago

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I have anything to offer an actual baseball team

10:12
Comment From Guest
What would it take to get the Angels to even listen to an offer for Trout? Harper, Strasburg, ++?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Everything that the Cardinals have

10:13
Comment From Sadwick
Feels like RAJ went for win now in the free agent market and sell now with the idea of trading Lee or Hamels. What’s more likely: a)he’s schizophrenic b)he has an evil twin c)he wants to see if he can make his stat department have a seizure with a logical paradox d)he’s just RAJ, he has his own strange agenda

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe he feels like he can turn one of those guys into a blockbuster that doesn’t hurt much in the short-term. Not going to happen

10:13
Comment From Dan
How much worse are the Tigers this year compared to last year? Seems like their roster is massively downgraded but they were arguably the best team last year (when healthy), so I don’t know what to think.

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Barely worse. Maybe not worse at all depending on Smyly/Castellanos

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: Still one of the very best title contenders

10:14
Comment From Tom
Think the Cardinals will move a surplus pitcher or OF for prospects?

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I do not!

10:15
Comment From GSon
what the player/individual wants in Japan is culturally considered secondary to the needs of the group or team. So, what Tanaka wants won’t matter quite as much as you’ve stated.. You have to take the culture into account when projecting american values…

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: That’s great and all, but from what I’ve read if Tanaka still wants to play in MLB after all the conversations, they’re going to allow that to happen

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: But the team’s going to try to convince him to stick around

10:16
Comment From Travis
Is Stephen Drew this year’s Michael Bourn? Will he sign before spring training?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: He’ll sign before ST, but yeah, this is a weird market for him

10:17
Comment From Andy
I just read your pieced at Wired. Fun stuff!

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: thanks, but more importantly, Erik Klemetti is awesome. terrific writer about science

10:17
Comment From Nick
Arizona has traded Parker, Bauer and now Skaggs(maybe). Does this mean Kevin Towers will be getting rid of Bradley next season?

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: that does not follow

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: necessarily

10:18
Comment From Michael
Shouldn’t teams be willing to listen on any player? There’s always these reports of teams “willing to listen” as if they’re actively trying to shop them.

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: it’s media people generating content they need to generate in order to keep their jobs

10:18
Comment From Dave
Why would the Phillies sign comp pieces like Byrd and then shop their best pitchers? Are they trying to compete next year or not?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like Byrd was a huge investment. They’re not competing in 2014 regardless

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: It is a bit strange though, which I’ll acknowledge, but it’s not like they’ve actually moved Hamels or Lee yet

10:19
Comment From Matt
What do you think it takes for a team to land Brett Anderson?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: You’ve got one year/$9.5 million or two years/$20 million. Exercising the options makes him out to be kind of like Scott Kazmir, which would be an interesting comp. I think it takes a good prospect, and I love him as a high-upside gamble. But I love all high-upside gambles, which usually don’t work out

10:20
Comment From Prich
If Kemp stays, who goes… The Dodgers aren’t really going to have Ethier/Crawford/Kemp (combining to make $60 mil) to play only two positions, are they?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Still think it’s ultimately Ethier

10:21
Comment From Guest
so “Oliver” is basically projecting Mike Trout to be the best baseball player through his age 27 season…if i did my math right (not likely) 69.2 war next is Ty Cobb 68.7 if i did the leader board thing right (not likely).. i love Mike Trout..that is all

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Trout isn’t god, but he’s the closest to god among all current baseball players

10:21
Comment From Guest
What AL manager’s worth the most wins?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: Biased answer is Maddon, honest answer is literally not one single idea

10:22
Comment From Anton
Do you see the Red Sox attempting to sign Choo if they can get him on a 4 year deal?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Hypothetically yes but it’s not going to come to that

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Everybody would be in on Choo for four years

10:22
Comment From Sammy Sooser
I recall reading about infield flyballs (Kershaw’s specialty) as a missing component of FIP, as a nearly guaranteed out, in spite of the fielders being involved. Will either FIP or WAR be adjusted to reflect IFF rates, accounting for the slim odds of one of them falling in?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I doubt it, and it would also make very little meaningful difference. But it’s something to definitely keep in mind when eying BABIP allowed

10:23
Comment From kevinthecomic
Was watching the winter meetings on MLB Network last night. RAJr. said that his team is built to win now. Is anyone in baseball using facial recognition software to determine when/if GMs are lying? He tried to say it with a straight face, but I thought I saw a flinch.

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: I think the most accurate thing is that his team isn’t built to win at any time that isn’t 2006

10:23
Comment From Anton
How does one get a job with fan graphs?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Submit awesome stuff to the community blog

10:24
Comment From Dave9000
What would be a clever right-handed-batting left fielder acquisition to complement Gregor Blanco in San Francisco? Who will Brian Sabean ultimately obtain?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: Drew Stubbs/someone thicker

10:25
Comment From Jeff
What is the Oriole’s plan? It seems like their offseason is all sorts of backwards. When I see a guy like Aoki go for a reliever, or a Josh Johnson go for cheap it makes me wonder what the O’s are doing.

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: They have to be so frustrating to follow right now. Totally caught in between. It seems like the plan is to keep together what’s already there, supplement with third-tier bits and keep trying to get lucky

10:26
Comment From SteveV
Who’s better next yr Eaton or Fowler forget the money? Some scouts think Eaton’s CF is below average? Thoughts/

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: I’m siding with Fowler, but I can’t really speak to Eaton’s defensive ability

10:26
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Where are these 5 year projections?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Player pages, bottom

10:27
Comment From Dave
I’ll summarize it for you, Trumbo is an average MLB player, don’t trade too much for him.

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Thanks!

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: Three years of control left, projected to make $4.7 million in 2014. Call that $7 million and $9 million the next two years and you’ve got Trumbo at or just above three years and $21 million. Saltalamacchia! Some surplus value there, but not very much

10:28
Comment From snohomish
Could the Mariner obtain righthander Ryan Dempster and outfielder Daniel Nava for next-to-nothing if the M’s picked up the entire 2014 tab of about $14 million?

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: It would at least not cost them very much, besides that money

10:30
Comment From AndrewK
Is there any real market for Drew Stubbs?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Ask Carson

10:30
Comment From Gila Monster
How do trades like the Fowler or Fister trades happen. The Front Office market is incredibly competitive, yet somehow someone rises to the top that thinks these are good ideas and their support staff doesn’t stage a coup.

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Tigers really like Ray, other teams skeptical of Fowler outside of Coors. While, in theory, there’s a market out there of 29 potential suitors, not everyone knows when someone is available or something is on the verge of going down

10:31
Comment From natsfan
Was the fister trade enough to put the nationals over the top in the NL East?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Well they are a few wins better now but they’re certainly not runaway favorites

10:32
Comment From Mark
Is there a job for making timely Simpson’s references (no past say season 13)? If so, where do I apply?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: that job is called the internet

10:32
Comment From Dan
I think you’re being harsh on Rajai Davis, he has a ton of value in a platoon role against LHP. It’s not like they’ll be letting him embarrass himself against RHP like the Jays did.

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: No one can possibly have a ton of value in a platoon role against LHP

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: He’s a fine role player and that’s it

10:34
Comment From Noah
Who turns down a straight up Ike Davis for Yunel Escobar trade?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Rays, because Yunel Escobar is good

10:34
Comment From Michael
Why would the Yankees even want Espinosa? Aren’t they better off just signing Infante?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: four years of team control, possible buy-low, 6.6 WAR 2011-2012

10:34
Comment From SteveV
Better 2014 season- Cruz or Hart, Fowler or Eaton?

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: Hart, Fowler

10:35
Comment From Noah
Are the Mets out on Ethier now that they got Granderson?

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: …I assume so

10:37
Comment From Vanski
What could the Reds reasonably expect for Homer Bailey?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: A worse, longer-term SP. Off the top of my head, I wonder if the Yankees would be interested in something like Bailey for Gardner + Nuno or something

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: or Phelps

10:38
Comment From Paul
Which team is currently to be the best in 2014? Tigers/Red Sox/Cardinals in a virtual tie?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Red Sox, then Tigers

10:38
Comment From Guest
Do you know if any teams potentially interested in Nick Franklin see him as a SS?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Nobody does

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Some teams barely see him as a 2B

10:39
Comment From MkeMan
What baseball player has skills that are analogous to your skills as a writer?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Munenori Kawasaki

10:39
Comment From Bkgeneral
You think the Astros have done enough to not lose 100 games next year?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I think they push 90

10:40
Comment From Heh
What would it take to move Jason Castro this offseason?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: Quite a lot. Close-to-the-majors talent

10:40
Comment From Jason
Can you explain the big deal with Dexter Fowler? Is it mostly based on the fact that CFs with a league average bat with average defense are hard to come by?

10:41
Jeff Sullivan: Once highly touted, in career prime, seems like a good hitter, reason to believe he’s better defensively in CF than his UZR because of Coors effect

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: What I don’t get, though, is the apparent divergence in opinion of Fowler and Jon Jay

10:42
Comment From lol
Derek Norris put up a 2 WAR season against LHP, and Gentry put up a 3.4 WAR season mainly platooned

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Gentry had 126 PA against righties and fielded for 650 innings. Davis also is not close to that kind of defender, and remember that the term is “a ton of value”

10:44
Comment From Matt
Starling Marte posted a 199 wRC+ vs. LHP…platoon him with Choo.

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Because Choo is going to sign on to being a platoon player

10:44
Comment From Robert DeNiros Mole
What should a team like the Mariners realistically pay for David Price at his salary, if not Taijuan Walker + spare parts?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Franklin+

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: or Ackley+

10:44
Comment From Nick
Heard anything on Stanton?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: apparently not moving

10:45
Comment From Seymour
“Three years of control left, projected to make $4.7 million in 2014. Call that $7 million and $9 million the next two years and you’ve got Trumbo at or just above three years and $21 million. Saltalamacchia! Some surplus value there, but not very much” He’s probably the cheapest power OF corner available. Nelson Cruz probably gets twice what Trumbo gets the next 3 yrs. The Snakes have excess OFers and arms. Makes sense.

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: And then you get into the matter of, so what about power? Why not overall value?

10:45
Comment From Bill
Are there any teams whose inactivity this winter surprises you? Specifically, why can’t the Reds find anything more useful to do in the free-agent or trade markets than sign Skip Schumaker?

10:45
Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles are bizarre

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: The Reds should get a bit louder but the whole upper-tier pitching market is slow to develop

10:46
Comment From Pedantic A**hole
Doesn’t Hart make all sorts of sense for the M’s?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: yes

10:46
Comment From Guest
NYYs are looking at playing Nunez and Kelly Johnson every day. With a MLB salary of essentially nothing, there are plenty of good reasons why they might be interested in Espinosa

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, they’re going to do something to get better. Maybe two somethings

10:46
Comment From Munchkin
What team actually has a (“spare”) cost controlled SS with upside realistically available for trade?

10:46
Jeff Sullivan: Arizona

10:47
Comment From JES
You and Muni are both funny, but you have talent.

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Mune hit a dinger!

10:47
Comment From Jim
If Franklin isn’t a 2B what is he? OF?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: Keep trying 2B for now, and he can cut it, but could have an OF future

10:47
Comment From Inquiring Minds
Lord Farquar close for the M’s this year?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: should, but it’s 50/50

10:48
Comment From Flo
Are the A’s finally the favorite in the AL West?

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, by a little

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: All right you guys, I need to get going. Haven’t even looked at twitter in 2 hours which can be a winter meetings catastrophe

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: So, thank you all for stopping by, and I apologize for what I didn’t or couldn’t address in the last 110 minutes or so. We’ll do it again next Tuesday, by which point lots of things not yet figured out should be figured out, and until then, be well and have great days




Print This Post



Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


7 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/10/13”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Andy says:

    My 3 team trade idea:
    Samardjia to yanks
    Gardner to Giants
    Gary Sanchez (NYY catcher) and Edwin Escobar (SF LH starter) to Cubs

    Who says no?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Kyle Henderson says:

    with recent info coming out on choo and his cost demands, do you see rangers going hard after Joey Bats?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Anon says:

    A note on the Trout 5 year projections by Oliver: they are based on 600 PA per year. Adjust that up to 700 PA, and Trout is 10+ WAR each of the next 5 years.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jason B says:

      …although projecting for 700 PA/season (which is essentially perfect health for five years running) seems a stretch for any player, even the Subway-eating demigods among us.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>