Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/2/13

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: All right! Whew! This delay was caused by Willie Bloomquist

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Although you could argue I’m still a day early since I’m usually going on Tuesday mornings. This is a one-time switch to correspond with the ZiPS roll-outs

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: So in the future, back to ordinary chat scheduling. For now, let’s do this

9:07
Comment From GSon
huray!!. only five minutes late…

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Six

9:07
Comment From Not a Mariners Fan
Thoughts on Willie Bloomquist?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners are in need of some infield depth behind Seager/Miller/Franklin so in that sense a guy like Bloomquist fits. Probably, though, he’ll get a bit too much money, and the internet isn’t going to receive this well even though in the big picture it doesn’t matter for beans

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: This is going to help drive the bandwagon believing that the Mariners’ front office is incompetent

9:10
Comment From Not a White Sox Fan
Thoughts on the White Sox catcher situation?

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: Bad. I could use more words and go into more detail, but that’s always going to be the conclusion.

9:11
Comment From Dave
Has Taillon’s ceiling been lowered at all since he’s been drafted? He hasn’t truly struggled yet on any level.

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say people are still waiting for him to dominate, but he remains very much an elite-level pitching prospect

9:12
Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, a note: I’m still kind of getting myself caught up after vacation so expect this chat to reveal things I have missed! There’s a new baseball landscape with which I’m still getting accustomed

9:13
Comment From Catoblepas
What do the Red Sox do for catcher now? Does Arencibia + Ross = one full catcher, or is Pierzynski still their best remaining option?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: They shouldn’t want Arencibia. It’s good that they already have Ross, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them explore the trade market. John Jaso might be had with Stephen Vogt behind him and pretty similar

9:14
Comment From KB
If you were a Brewers fan, at this moment, what would you be excited about entering 2014?

9:14
Jeff Sullivan: fewer innings from Johnny Hellweg

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: and another full season of Carlos Gomez

9:16
Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan
What would you do at catcher if you were the White Sox?

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: Honestly, the solution probably isn’t out there and readily available. The White Sox need to develop somebody. For the time being just keep Flowers/Phegley together

9:18
Comment From Matt
I noticed that you never actually passed judgement on the Twins two signings. Nolasco good or bad? Hughes good or bad?

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: Petriello has a detailed piece on the signings and I didn’t want to step on his toes. That piece just hadn’t published yet. Nolasco deal is fair. Hughes deal seems fair, even if the Twins might’ve been able to get him for, say, $20m/2 instead. Neither is a disaster or a bargain, and though the Twins are a strange destination even bad teams need to try to be better

9:21
Comment From Jake
I’m jealous that you were in Guatemala because I miss Guatemala :( How were the volcanoes?

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: Saw a nice plume from Fuego, and Pacaya threw up some rocks when I was watching from the slopes. Atitlan was spectacular. Go to Guatemala everybody

9:21
Comment From David
The Nationals have been extremely quiet so far, this offseason. It’s generally assumed they need a starting pitcher along with some bullpen and bench help, but I haven’t heard any names AT ALL. Any names you think fit there?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: With the Nationals anyone and everyone can seem like a fit, no matter the price. I think the holdup right now is that the Nationals most need a starting pitcher and that market is still developing what with the Tanaka delay. I think it’s going to take Tanaka landing for the main starters to find their markets and no one’s going to want to budge first

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: I expect the Nationals to be players for prominent names, per usual. Not saying that’s the right thing, but it’s my expected thing

9:26
Comment From GSon
Jeff Samardzija trade talk doesn’t seem to be at all realistic. Four prospects from the Jays including Aaron Sanches and Marcus Stroman..etc. Who gets the Shark and for what, in your always humble opinion…?

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: Well, if the price were more reasonable, a deal would’ve been done by now. This is the course of negotiations, and Samardzija’s market will be partially driven by the Tanaka outcome. I suspect he’ll be moved instead of re-signed, and I think he’ll end up on more of a mid-market team at the cost of a good prospect and two more reasonable prospects

9:29
Comment From Maxamuz
Mr. Sullivan, the consensus he in the Boston area is that the Red Sox need to make various moves. I have one friend who is livid that they haven’t made big splashes and they are doomed. He seems to think they need to gut the team and turn over the roster. I say, NO. They won a WS, have a solid core and no huge contract worries. What say you?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: They’re in all right shape, of course, but they don’t really have a starting catcher, and they’re out an outstanding center fielder, and they’re thin at first and third. There’s plenty of work to be done, even beyond possibly re-signing Stephen Drew. But tell your friend to calm down because we haven’t even reached the winter meetings yet

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Also, remind your friend that they just won the freaking world series

9:31
Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan
What would the White Sox need to offer to get the Padre’s talking on a deal for Chase Headley?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: More than they should

9:32
Comment From Tim
Hey Jeff, the Orioles now have, I believe , four catchers on their 40-man. Do you think that this is a sign that Wieters could be traded this offseason or that the Orioles are just trying to prepare for the inevitable 2015 offseason where Wieters will walk. Or am I overthinking this completely?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: They have four catchers, one of them good. They’re open to trading Wieters, but they’re not in position to lose him and still be stable behind the plate

9:33
Comment From Nats Fan
So jeff a lot of noise and articles are being made for the nats to sign cano, i don’t see rizzo doing this even if it is a 4 Win upgrade do you?

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: I think people are trying to find potential Cano alternatives if New York doesn’t pay up and there just aren’t very many of them. The Nationals stand out because they have money and are aggressive, and I’m not saying it couldn’t work, but I think it’s incredibly unlikely

9:34
Comment From Boston Phan
Given Nolasco’s deal, what should Jimenez and Santana expect? Or are the three not linked in the minds of teams?

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Santana and Garza are held in higher esteem than Nolasco is. Jimenez might be perceived as too unreliable to give 4+ years, but he should beat Nolasco in AAV. Just off the top of my head, I could see Santana around $60m/4, Garza around $75m/5, and Jimenez around $40m/3. But I can’t predict a starting-pitcher market that hasn’t yet truly developed

9:36
Comment From Bryan
Nori Aoki’s name has been raised in some trade rumors (most notably to the Mets for Ike Davis). Aoki has a great contract, but it is only for one more season. What can the Brewers get for Aoki? Will the return be good enough to warrant dealing him?

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Aoki has a good contract, of course, but the fact of the matter is that he’s more or less league-average and he’s not in position to get everyday playing time in Milwaukee before becoming a free agent. He’s valuable depth, but the Brewers shouldn’t cling too hard to a near-32-year-old. With that said, because of his contract, he wouldn’t bring back that much in a deal. Talking perhaps a B-level prospect. Nifty player, wrong situation

9:41
Comment From chawson
Is Ryan Braun worth trading for?

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: Sure, but it’s not happening

9:41
Comment From GSon
Best bargain bin buyers = The Twins for Nolasco and Hughes.. Agree?. Comment, please…

9:42
Jeff Sullivan: They gave Nolasco and Hughes seven guaranteed years. Hughes had a chance of being a bargain-bin pickup, but the Twins insisted on paying retail price.

9:42
Comment From Zach
Assuming both contracts are fair value, which outfielder makes more baseball sense for the Tigers: Choo or Ellsbury? I love the idea of Choo on base constantly in front of Cabrera, but Ellsbury’s speed and elite D behind a staff of flyballers would pay big dividends as well.

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: Ellsbury is better, so in that sense Ellsbury is the answer. Then it just becomes a question of how you get somebody to play left field.

9:44
Comment From Johnny
Is me being extremely excited over the signing of Dioner Navarro a function of Dioner being good, or JPA being really bad?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: yes

9:44
Comment From Guest
What last place team is closest to competing?

9:44
Jeff Sullivan: I think Blue Jays, then Rockies, then Cubs, although maybe you swap the last two

9:45
Comment From Concerned White Sox Fan
Are the Mariners really looking for pitching like the rumors say? That doesn’t seem to make sense given what their offense looked like last season.

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, you focus on improvements, not on specific kinds of improvements. For another thing, they’re looking for pitching and hitting. They have money to spend and plenty of holes.

9:45
Comment From David
Thoughts on the Navarro signing? Do you think teams will start asking switch-hitters to favour their dominant side more often after Victorino’s experiment?

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I’m interested in the power uptick, even if Navarro lacks a track record and standout defensive ability. The Jays aren’t paying him to be very good, as the AAV is less than the market value of a single win over replacement. The contract is just fine with some upside, and he should be relief from the previous crap

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Victorino’s experiment is going to change very much league-wide. It’s always going to be a case-by-case basis and switch-hitting is too valuable to give up unless you have a clear and dramatic split

9:51
Comment From NoBattingGloves
Last Year Zach Greinke had a wRC+ of 132 at the plate compared to Brendan Ryan’s 44 if both on your team who would you DH for

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Greinke because of the rules

9:52
Comment From KB
Who plays 1B for the Brewers in 2014?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say Corey Hart isn’t likely, but he’s the most likely

9:53
Comment From Steve
Will Alex Cobb be excellent again in ’14?

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know why he wouldn’t be

9:53
Comment From Dave
Why do people need domination from prospects in the minors to predict major league success? Matt Harvey and Gerrit Cole didn’t dominate. Jeff Clement did.

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Clement didn’t really dominate outside of a month and a half

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Obviously it isn’t all about the numbers and this is where scouting comes in, but dominance is an extremely positive indicator, and if a guy doesn’t dominate in the minors, you wonder why that might be, if he’s said to be a big-time prospect. There can be fine reasons, and there can be worrying reasons

9:55
Comment From Thomas
Did you see lava on your vacation?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: yes!

9:55
Comment From neastws
What assumptions do ZIPS and Steamer make about platoon splits? Do they assume the player will face the same distribution of LHP and RHP as they have over their careers?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: This would be a good question to ask tomorrow!

9:55
Comment From Boosh Magoosh
Red Sox trading for Hanigan makes too much sense, right? Left-handed to platoon with Ross, good defender, good OBP, he’s a buy-low…

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Obvious, excellent candidate

9:56
Comment From Boosh Magoosh
Wait, Hanigan’s not left-handed… I’m a fool. But it still makes a lot of sense.

9:57
Comment From Guest
AJ Burnett a good fit for the Orioles (his offseason home is in MD apparently) or does he just retire?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Burnett would be a good fit, but I think it’s still either Pirates or nothing

9:58
Comment From Catoblepas
Has any research been done into the pitcher’s side of framing? Like, are there any staffs who throw to a catcher who averages +1.5 strikes per game, but it falls to +1 for a certain pitcher and +2 for another?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: The big other side of it is pitcher command — a pitcher who locates will be easier to frame than a pitcher who’s more unpredictable. Unfortunately we dont’ have great measures of pitcher command, in the public arena, although I keep trying to think of ways we can find approximations. One idea, still unpursued: find framing numbers for pitchers, relative to what you’d expect from the catchers he threw to overall

9:59
Comment From Mike C.
Pirates with best pitch framing catcher tandem ever! my saber head about to explode at it’s implications

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: If only Chris Stewart could do anything else

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: But what a turnaround over two or three years for that team

10:00
Comment From Brendan
Is Samardzija worth Archie Bradley?

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: nah

10:01
Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
What was your longest stretch without checking your email this trip? Was it glorious?

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t check my email once. What’s the point of vacation if you spend it on the internet? Go do things.

10:01
Comment From WillieBloomquistButtCyst
Does the thought process behind the two Twin’s SP signings mirror the Edwin Jackson signing by the Cubs?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: Only in that neither the Twins nor the Cubs were ready to win at the time. Just based on the identities of the front offices, we know the thought processes were quite different, and for the Cubs I think they saw Jackson as potentially undervalued by the market. Nolasco and Hughes aren’t the same kind of upside plays/potential bargains. Hughes, maybe a bit, but Nolasco is probably just an addition for the sake of getting 200 innings

10:03
Comment From Catoblepas
Also, if one was interested in doing research there, do you have any suggestions on finding battery information for pitch outcomes? It seems tough to figure out both who was pitching and catching for all the pitches in a season…

10:04
Jeff Sullivan: This goes beyond my current database skills, in that I don’t have any. But it’s possible to tag each pitch to a pitcher and a catcher using processes I don’t understand. Ask a coder!

10:04
Comment From The other Kyle
Another Brewers question….thoughts on Khris Davis? Do the Brewers have a spot for him? Is he worth “making” a spot for? Really liked his approach last season.

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: It’s worth finding out what he can do over a few hundred plate appearances, just given that he could be under team control for a while, but I don’t love his odds of being more than just all right

10:05
Jeff Sullivan: Put another way, it makes sense for the Brewers to make a bigger commitment to Davis than to Aoki. Even if it might end up worse for the 2014 on-field product

10:05
Comment From jojo
Where’s the closest replacement level volcano?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: A good replacement-level volcano might be any run-of-the-mill monogenetic shield or cinder cone

10:06
Comment From Matt
Do you think the Dbacks will make any moves this offseason?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: absolutely!

10:06
Comment From Eastern NC
Where does Cano go? Yankees, right? Isn’t this senseless posturing?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine not assuming Yankees in the end

10:08
Comment From jojo
Should the Twins sign Stephen Drew? Salty?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: The answer is always going to be “if the price is right” since every team should be looking for improvements, but the Twins probably shouldn’t be winning any of these particular sweepstakes given that other teams are much closer to contention. At catcher, might as well see more of what Pinto can do

10:09
Comment From josh
is Toronto a big market team and why not?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Should be, just spent like it

10:09
Comment From Brian
We kept hearing Prince Fielder was an immovable object. I mean contract. Do we still think Albert Pujols’ contract is immovable?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: No such thing as an immovable contract provided you throw in money

10:10
Comment From gareth
A lot of mediocre free agents pitchers are getting big money so far. If they are getting overpaid,, what do you see the next tier of ubaldo. Santana. Garza getting?

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I could be wrong, but it seems to me the surprising issue has been not guaranteed salary, but guaranteed years

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: The AAVs themselves have been more or less reasonable

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Garza might get five years and an option. Santana could get four years and an option, and *maybe* five, but people haven’t forgotten that just a year ago the Angels basically gave Santana away

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: Jimenez isn’t nearly reliable enough for a major long-term commitment. Too much of a high-maintenance mechanical project

10:12
Comment From Eastern NC
Are Red Sox fans now the most annoying in baseball?

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Now?

10:12
Comment From Prich
Would you be ok with the Ms signing Cruz, if and only if they did not sign Morales as well, and Cruz was going to be a ‘versatile’ a RF/1B/DH type?

10:13
Jeff Sullivan: Nelson Cruz was really good, in 2010

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: I’d rather just have Morales, given expected prices

10:14
Comment From David
It’s interesting to hear you say that the Nationals are players for anybody, regardless of the cost. Of course, it’s true. But what a difference a few years makes. I remember a few years ago the common meme among Nats fans was that the Lerners were cheap and unwilling to spend.Then they sign Werth, bring up some of their young guys, get good and suddenly they have a payroll that will easily be over $120M (without even making any moves) and spend like a big market team.

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: What the Nationals have now is a foundation, worth building around. Makes more sense to spend now than it did before

10:16
Comment From Scott
2 yr/$5-6 m for Bloomquist… sigh

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: Pay raise!

10:16
Comment From Mets Fan
Some say Chris Young is a solid, value signing, despite increasingly diminished returns and 4 straight years of declining offensive and defensive metrics. Yet the Mets hate Ike Davis, who is 4 years younger and is a similar or better player presently at half the price. Please explain. Who is more likely to have a productive season, a 27 year old or a 31 year old out of a bandbox on 4 straight declining years?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Since Davis came up in 2010, Young has been twice as valuable according to WAR, and while the Mets have other options at first base, they’ve been extraordinary thin in the outfield. So there are a couple factors here

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: Plus there’s the reality of Davis seeming like a bit of a mechanical mess

10:18
Comment From Girl Monster
Don’t you think the Red Sox are in a strong position to try to trade for Headley?….especially after the Rizzo/Kelly/Cashner return

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I think they are, but they might be better served hanging onto their youth and re-signing Drew at the cost of just money instead

10:19
Comment From gareth
Who signs ckrey hart?

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: I like the Red Sox or Rockies

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Think there might be too much demand for the Rays to afford him. Brewers and obvious candidate but there are other places he could do more to repair his value

10:20
Comment From gareth
Where do ubaldo and kazmir end up, and how do the tribe replace those 360 innings?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Kazmir seems like an almost perfect fit for the Orioles. Can’t predict Ubaldo yet

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Danny Salazar should help make up a lot of lost ground. Wonder how much Josh Tomlin has in the tank these days

10:23
Comment From gareth
Drew stubbs would be a good trade fit for whom?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: anyone who wants to pay for a 4th/5th outfielder

10:23
Comment From SteveV
Does someone like Seattle get desperate and offer Napoli a 5/$75 or 5/$65 offer?

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Seattle is more likely to get desperate for a Nelson Cruz

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: possibly Ervin Santana

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Napoli isn’t getting close to five years

10:24
Comment From gareth
Which platoon do you like better – Murphy/raburn or Murphy/stubbs?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: probably the one with Stubbs

10:25
Comment From James
How will poor teams adapt next now that rich teams are starting to adapt moneyball philosophy? or will they eventually die out if the league doesn’t add a salary cap.

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll let the rich teams keep controlling the mega-free-agency market. They’ll be aggressive about trading good young players approaching the end of team control

10:26
Comment From SteveV
What’s more worrisome when evaluating minor leaguers ; bad K% or OBP?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: on their own, OBP

10:27
Comment From SteveV
When do you think Posey moves off C? Where to 3b/1b/0f?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: first base in a year or two

10:28
Comment From Dave
Please convince me that the Pirates won’t trade for Price. The Rays are gonna maul someone in that trade and I don’t want it to be Huntington.

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: You should at least trust that Huntington wouldn’t allow himself to be mauled. He’s earned that much. And I don’t think the Pirates are going to be the team to try to get Price to put themselves over the top. They’re building too much for the long-term and Price would be out of their affordability in a short while too

10:29
Comment From Bill
Any reactions to the Ziegler/Aardsma comments on the Peralta contract, other than “these people are idiots”?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t actually see the comments first-hand, but I think I heard about them. They’re far from being alone, but the current system is the one the players negotiated. If enough people want harsher penalties, they’ll get them. For the time being, the penalties are the penalties and Peralta was given his

10:30
Comment From James
How how will the low supply of second basemen affect the price of Robinson Cano?

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it will

10:31
Comment From gareth
Most desperate team that will overpay one lucky guy this off-season?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Mariners

10:31
Comment From gareth
What do you think about the indians exploration of carlos Santana as an option at third base this winter? Might make a good fangraphs article?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t wait to read more about this! I saw a mention of it the other day but it’s been busy trying to get caught up after the trip. Fascinating idea

10:31
Comment From Marty
Why do you use FIP- and ERA- instead of FIP+ and ERA+? Is it to just confuse the hell out of everyone?

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Because we have FIP- and ERA- on FanGraphs

10:32
Comment From Max
Did the Royals know something about the developing market (with Vargas’ contract) considering the Twins’ pair of signings? or is that still because they are the Royals and need to spend more to get players to go there…for now.

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: The Royals saw a guy they liked, they saw a guy they could afford, and they knew they’d have to offer a good commitment to get a guy to sign so early. They can’t offer that much in AAV, so they compensated by going with years

10:34
Comment From Jay
What’s a reasonable return for Brandon Phillips? He projects around the same as Omar Infante and is paid more than Infante will get. Maybe a B prospect? Seems silly the Reds have talked him off the team. They have no replacement and aren’t likely to get back a piece that will help them in their limited window.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: It seems like he’s right around that area where he’ll be paid about what he’s worth over the remainder, give or take a few million. So in that sense a “fair” exchange would almost be just giving him away, but yeah, a B prospect seems reasonable. Price paid in exchange for perceived “certainty”

10:36
Comment From Prich
Smoak for Aoki, who says no?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Mariners

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Not necessarily that they should, but they would

10:37
Comment From SteveV
Better chance of a comeback next year–Hart or LaRoche?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Hart

10:37
Comment From Jay
Could you rank your top 4 most likely 2014 WS winners?

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Okay, but it’ll be boring. Tigers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Dodgers

10:38
Comment From kevinthecomic
what’s the difference between lava and magma?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: lava is magma above the surface

10:38
Comment From Girl Monster
Considering the good aging curve for players like Ellsbury and the negative one for players like Cano. Given they both appear to be around 6 WAR players, why would you ever sign Cano over Ellsbury?

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: Not at all convinced that Cano is looking at a lousy aging curve

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: And Cano, of course, has been far, far, far more durable

10:39
Comment From James
Are the Twins Buxton-Sano the next Stratsburg-Harper? That is, are they enough to turn the franchise around?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say they’re each a half-level below where Strasburg and Harper were. Very, very special young players — very, very much left to prove

10:41
Comment From Guest
How does this “Twins insisted on paying retail for Hughes” theory work? If everyone else will only pay less than retail, should the Twins only sign someone who doesn’t have any other offers? I’m not interested in defending the Twins in all of their dealings, but I don’t really get some of the hot sport takes on FA deals.

10:42
Jeff Sullivan: Hughes might’ve looked like something of a potential bargain. The Twins gave him a somewhat sizable commitment. Maybe that was necessary in order to lure him to Minnesota, but then Hughes wasn’t their only option. Plenty of ways this could work out well for them, where they’re thankful they have him through 2016, but it’s a weird commitment to a guy who was bad

10:42
Comment From Guest
franklin gutierrez was sidelined by a viral infection in the VWL.

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Ordinarily you’d think “okay, he has a cold.” This isn’t ever ordinary.

10:43
Comment From Dave
Sorry to keep going back to Taillon, but Cole didn’t dominate in the minors because the Pirates were apparently limiting his arsenal and stressing FB command, they’re doing the same with Taillon, so why are people worried?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think people are worried about Taillon. I think they just recognize he has a potential he hasn’t yet reached. That’s all

10:47
Comment From Confused in Cubland
Samardzija gets talked up as a serious trade chip, but he’s been exactly Lance Lynn over the past two years — same ERA- and FIP- and same innings pitched. And Lynn is two years younger, still makes the MLB minimum, and has 2 more years of team control. Help me figure out the disconnect, Jeff!

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Lynn has a massive platoon split, and Samardzija throws harder and misses more bats. They’re more similar than not, but that should get to the core of it

10:48
Comment From josh
stop taking easy questions

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: Hard questions are hard and chats are long

10:48
Comment From Max
is Matt Kemp going to end up switching teams? and which one would make sense to get him?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s happening, not this offseason at least

10:49
Comment From Neil
What’s a new stat/feature you’re pushing for FG to incorporate?

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: Seems like framing is an obvious next step. I’d like to see some stuff on quality of opposition faced as well

10:49
Comment From Sadwick
Can we just agree that fanatical fans are annoying no matter where they’re from or who they root for and stop with the “_____ fans are the most annoying” stuff? In fact, every team I have ever rooted for had fans that annoyed me despite rooting for the same team.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: An important lesson is that people everywhere suck

10:50
Comment From Jam
Does Grady Sizemore get a major league contract or a minor league deal this offseason?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: minor

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: decent chance, though, of breaking camp

10:50
Comment From Jon
Could Kazmir be a good fir for the Pirates? (especially if AJ retires) LHP, good D, pitch framers, etc.

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, he could fit well there too, although there’s a chance he could test their apparent budget

10:50
Comment From Anthony
Do you think Navarro can be a full-time starting Catcher? I really don’t see it. Split at best. What else you think the Jays are looking at?

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Well, I mean, he’s done it before, albeit not for a while

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s a guy from whom you want 100+ games, necessarily, but the Jays aren’t paying him like that’s what they’re looking for, and he does have the upside given how he just hit. In a thin market, it’s a reasonable roll of the dice that doesn’t cost the Jays very much

10:52
Comment From Bill
Most of this year’s post-season teams have tried to improve themselves in the off season, but I can’t see any real improvement in the Dodgers. (Haren isn’t an “improvement,” is he?) Are they just so loaded that they don’t need to improve, or is a blockbuster coming?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: Not a lot for them to do, aside from stay healthy. They did sign Guerrero. Still need a third baseman. By and large, though, the Dodgers didn’t come into the offseason with needs

10:53
Comment From Bret
Since Ubaldo seems like a good bet to get a shorter term deal that most free agents who rejected a qualifying offer, does he seem like a good bet to end up with a team that has a protected first round pick? Not a ton of option, then, but some that could make sense.

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: I think you just need one team that believes enough in its pitching coach and in Jimenez’s 2013 turnaround. He still has a lot of name value so he should be able to attract a lot of attention, even from teams without a protected pick. It’s just that they’ll limit their long-term commitments given his up-and-down recent career. The team that likes him best will be able to justify losing a pick for a front-of-the-rotation starter

10:55
Comment From Max
did you bring any book on your trip? which one you got to read? btw, Dollar Sign on the Muscle is excellent. so glad BP reprints this.

10:55
Comment From jojo
But if the Twins sign Nolasco, Hughes, Drew, a LH C to share duties w Pinto, add in Sano, Buxton, Meyer by the end of the season… Aren’t they close to contention?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Only if the prospects pan out and make immediate splashes. They’re still not close as an organization

10:56
Comment From Ed
Why would the Mariners pay good money for Bloomquist when they could just use somebody like Carlos Triunfel to fill the UT position for basically nothing?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Because Bloomquist is better than Triunfel and they presumably like his energy and leadership and experience. Every team in baseball would rather have Bloomquist than Triunfel

10:57
Comment From Lava Flo
Over/Under Corey Hart WAR in 2014: 2.5

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Over!

10:57
Comment From Matt
If Amaro can be a GM, can’t anyone? Isn’t 90% of Fangraphs more qualified?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Heavens no

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Being a GM is so hard

10:58
Comment From Stephen
Cards make a move for Price? They’ve upgraded CF and SS without dealing any of the young pitching.

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: They probably prefer their current position. They’re set, and they’re set for a long time

10:58
Comment From jojo
What sort of odds will you give me as to whether the Twins finish the regular season with a play-in game berth (or better) ?

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say their odds of that are maybe 10%

11:00
Comment From jojo
Who gets first dibs on islands that form out of lava in the ocean? If we plant a flag can we start a FanGraphs Nation?

11:01
Comment From Pat
Dan Murphy and Ike Davis for Billy Butler – who hangs up first?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Mets

11:01
Comment From Matt
Is the lack of faith in the Mariners this offseason a product of recent moves they’ve made, or that Jack Z will make moves to keep his job longer than a year?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Recent moves + desperation + payroll raise with limited ways to spend it

11:02
Comment From Wiseman
Castellanos at 3B or LF?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: 3B

11:02
Comment From SteveV
What’s your favorite baseball website other than Fangraphs of course?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: The obvious answer is Baseball-Reference, and in particular the Play Index. But perhaps I should just say MLB.com since that’s where all the video is

11:03
Comment From Lana
Is Cameron letting you go to the Winter Meetings this year again?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: I was given the choice but (A) I don’t want to go to Orlando, and (B) it’s a lot easier to get work done when you’re *not* at the meetings. And this way we have some west coast coverage

11:03
Comment From el lee
Could you see the Yankees making some more moves to give the appearance they are strapped for cash to lower the price on Cano?

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: No, I don’t see that happening. Not for that purpose

11:04
Comment From SteveV
How can a player as fast as Fowler be below ave in fielding and base running metrics (reference Bill James handbook).

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: Lousy instincts

11:04
Comment From Guest
If Scott Kazmir can only find 1 yr guaranteed deals, do you think he ends up back in CLeveland?

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: I suspect he should have no problem getting two years, and possibly three

11:05
Comment From Sam
Currently wondering whether people are asking you Hall of Fame questions and you are choosing not to answer them, or if people in this chat just don’t care about Hall of Fame questions

11:05
Jeff Sullivan: I’ve only gotten one Hall of Fame question, and I passed it up because I haven’t read about teh Hall of Fame yet this year and I also personally don’t really care about it

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: I’m too young to have watched players of old, I’ve never been to Cooperstown, I don’t have plans to visit Cooperstown, and I’m more interested in looking forward than in looking back. Awards are weird to me

11:06
Comment From Guest
A’s close to signing Kazmir, per Rosenthal.

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Right as I was reading they’re unlikely to re-sign Colon. Interesting

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Without knowing terms, it’s easy to see how this could end up a bargain-ish

11:07
Comment From Ryan
Tell me something happy about the cubs!

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: They are very well run, and they have money, and these are important things

11:07
Comment From Justin
Kazmir just got 2 years from the A’s!

11:07
Comment From Guest
Kazmir to A’s for 2 years, per Rosenthal and MLBTR.

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Guess I should get to work!

11:07
Jeff Sullivan: Time to close this down after two hours

11:08
Jeff Sullivan: Thank you everybody for hanging out, I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address, and we’ll do it again next week, on Tuesday like usual after this one-time rescheduling. Take care, be well, and have great days




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

10 Responses to “Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/2/13”

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  1. Zach says:

    Assuming both contracts are fair value, which outfielder makes more baseball sense for the Tigers: Choo or Ellsbury? I love the idea of Choo on base constantly in front of Cabrera, but Ellsbury’s speed and elite D behind a staff of flyballers would pay big dividends as well.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Dave from Pittsburgh says:

    I’m a mouth breathing retard that posts chat questions in the response section

    -19 Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Darren says:

    With the Navarro signing, does JPA get traded by end of day – or do they keep both?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Zach says:

    Dave, I’ve never submitted a question to this chat before so I wasn’t quite sure how to do it. I hope your day has been improved by mocking me and trivializing the struggles of people with developmental disabilities.

    +11 Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Eastern NC says:

    Oh, I’m a mouth breather. My son is autistic. Nice job buttmonkey.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Eastern NC says:

    Talking to Darren.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Fangraphs Human Resources says:

    The purpose of a vacation is to check your email as much as you do ordinarily, but from a slightly warmer/cooler location within sight of a body of water. Get with reality, Sullivan.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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